Does this race equivalency calculator look right?

Supercell

I was looking at https://sporttracks.mobi/labs/race-finish-time-predictor today and was interested to see how the Dublin Half times might predict a full marathon.

So for example the winner in the M55-59 category had a chip time of 1:22:42 which translates to a full of 3:01. I'd of thought it would be lower than that but what do I know, are these realistic? Just curious what super humans can do in my, soon to be, age group mainly!

Trampas

1:22 half id expect mid 2:50’s depending on the course but easily under 3 hours on a normal marathon course

crisco10

My PBs are all from last 6 months and in that range:

5k: 17:51 (at Jingle Bells, not sure that counts!)

10k: 36:51

10M: 1:01

Half: 1:21

Full: 2:56

so table generally looks similar, bar the 5k times.

Itziger

Agree, that the Half to Full is off. Nobody who runs a 1.22.** would be happy with anything other than a sub 3. The old H*2+10=Full doesn't work for everyone but I prefer it to the one above. My pbs are incredibly similar to Crisco's and my Full I would consider my weak point at 2.57.

Murph_D

Well it does say there’s an assumption of slower longer distances - so it’s allowing a ‘fade’ like some calculators do. In that sense it’s probably pretty accurate for many runners, but maybe less so at the sub-3 level. Twice HM plus 14 mins is my own mid pack standard (1:33 HM, 3:20 M).

brick tamland

Just noticed that Strava have added a projected race times based on your training/milage. Not sure how long it's been there

28064212

One thing I find about race calculators is that they rarely qualify/contextualize what type of race they're considering. There's a huge difference between someone specifically targetting a half-marathon and dedicating a training block to it and only it versus someone running a half-marathon 10/12 weeks into an 18 week marathon training block. The latter is what a large proportion of amateur runners do, but most race calculators appear to assume the former.

If you dedicated an entire training block to a half marathon and ran 1:22, I think 3:01 is a realistic (maybe slightly conservative) marathon equivalent. If you ran 1:22 mid-training block 6 or 8 weeks out from a marathon, I'd expect you to easily go sub-3, and possibly targetting sub-2:50.

The last time I set a marathon PB, it was only 60 seconds slower than my HM time doubled, which I had run 5 weeks previously.

Trampas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123383840#Comment_123383840

I just checked mine and it be close enough. 7 seconds faster than 5k last week in Kilkenny and I’d be hoping for a few seconds faster in Johnstown bridge. 10k around what I’d expect along with half. Full no idea as none done a run over low 20k since finishing marathon in Valencia. It’s close enough to what Garmin has predicted also. I always wear a chest strap for every run