Tesla Talk 2

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123455009#Comment_123455009

I have no idea what you're saying here. We are talking about crashed cars that are category C or D write offs. This is not being reported by the insurance companies who are selling these crashed cars to the trade for repair. The question is why they are not reporting them.

joe1303l

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123456346#Comment_123456346

I don’t think anyone knows the why but it’s very clear car checks on vehicles here are clearly nonsense. Fine for flagging outstanding finance but not worth a s**t otherwise. Motoccheck, Cartell etc. should really be called out for this. I’d have no problem buying a salvage vehicle and having it repaired properly but there would need to be a significant saving to bother. Plenty rogue traders out there selling undeclared repaired write offs. Buyer beware.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123455085#Comment_123455085

Ireland seems to be an outlier in that we buy twice the number of 3’s vs Y, when the rest of the world is exactly the opposite.

I was speaking more about the sales being important to Tesla in general moreso that just Ireland, where they’ve never broken into the top 20 for sales by marque

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123455432#Comment_123455432

sorry, it’s investor **** - use to describe your investment thesis, in other words, the “why” in why are you buying these shares? - what does your analysis say will be the share price on a date in the future when you’d sell.

In Tesla’s case, valuing the company based on fundamentals or discount cash flow is useless. You’d get $50/share.

So how do you value them -

they were definitely a growth story. The CEO said he foresaw 20-30% compound annual growth from 2022-2030, so you could put a value on the shares in 2030 based on that. That is no longer a valid investment thesis - they won’t grow at that level, indeed they are currently contracting.

So are they now a turnaround story? - comparable to someone like Intel for example; massive company, huge potential, but can management return them to growth …

This is the sh!t I spent my life doing, but for boring companies that can be valued on fundamentals.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123457163#Comment_123457163

Tbey are only contracting based on the silly spike last year that was never sustainable? Well up on 12 months ago, 2 years ago, 5 years ago.

suspect they will be an interesting case study in 10 years time.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123457169#Comment_123457169

Revenue in 2024 was only up 1% on 2023, so it’s been an issue for a while now.

It will be impossible to view 2025 as anything but a contraction year. which brings us back to the original point, the Q2 juniper worldwide sales will answer a lot of questions for tesla in 2025 and probably beyond. There’s no production excuses etc etc

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123457136#Comment_123457136

Can understand all that but when people say Tesla are incentivising the model y to drive sales, they almost say it as an insult. It’s the norm IMO.

Look at Cupra, rand new model, the Tavascan, 0% finance, €3500 SEAI booster, VW, free pro plus interior upgrade worth €4k, Volvo, 1.9% finance along with €1500 booster along with €500 towards an EVSE

These incentives are not just confined to Tesla and their new models.

Tesla will also never be the volume seller like VW, there’s only 2 models. They also won’t be no.1 seller year on year. They’ve peaked and Into will settle into a more normal sales figure year on year. They can’t be expected to stay at No. 1 indefinitely, especially now with so much competition that’s on par with them.

It all comes down to personal taste and financial decisions now adays.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123457248#Comment_123457248

totally agree - however Tesla were always seen as different - it was “are you buying a Tesla, or are you buying some other car”.

Now Tesla are just one of the bunch, but with a millstone around their neck, and a constant spotlight on their every move.

September1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123456346#Comment_123456346

I'm saying that insurers have a clear financial interest in this stuff being unreported. Car with clean record can sell for more and then whoever repairs this car can pay more to insurer.

MojoMaker

Exactly. Why would they report them?

sk8board

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jg80j771zo

Look at the complexity of the 7 cameras plus radar and lidar that’s on the Mach-E, and a huge computer in the boot to process everything in real time.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how Tesla integrate the hardware into the robotaxi concept car they showed last year, for the Austin trial.

Autonomous cab journeys are a no-brainer imho. Riders will see past the tech and the perceived safety issues in their first journey and it would just become the new normal. Uber price them the same as any other car.

I can’t see that amount of hardware being economical to put into a private vehicle for many years, or maybe it’s added as a $10-15k option in the configurator, like the original Tesla FSD.

prosaic

Tesla have been testing driverless fsd in Austin for a number of days now. They have set June 12th as the offical start date for the small-scale (10 to 20 cars) rollout of cybercab service there.

Things going well, they will scale fairly quickly.

pah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497135#Comment_123497135

See you on June 12th

wassie

Note they didn't say what year! 😀

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497135#Comment_123497135

Are you not counting the remote drivers?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497398#Comment_123497398

Don't all these robotaxis have a remote driver somewhere for emergencies?

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497522#Comment_123497522

Those are not actually in control unless requested, if I understand correctly. They monitor and where car requires asssitance, they intervene.
With the 10 or 20 cars, it may be 1 to 1 but I believe the plan is to scale as quickly as cautiously reasonable. If things are going well, it will scale fairly quickly and they wouldn't have the capacity to do 1 to 1 monitoring.

Buddy Bubs

Does the world want or need robotaxis?

Is it a vanity project or is it a viable business plan?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497583#Comment_123497583

Good question, but its not a Tesla project, there are a few driverless cars in the US operating already so if there is a market there, then no reason why Tesla or any other company cannot enter that space.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497135#Comment_123497135

”promising”

slave1

Re Robotaxis, concept is your car in parked up at night, might as well let it be a Robotaxi while you sleep if that appeals to you ...

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123498781#Comment_123498781

It won’t work in Ireland due to our PSV regulations. The same reason why uber never took off here in the same way as other countries where people could use it for a bit of extra income.

pah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123498781#Comment_123498781

Get it dropped back during the night and have an Optimus robot clean up the puke and plug it in for you.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123499038#Comment_123499038

Then make breakfast!

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123498781#Comment_123498781

It would have to use the robotaxi providers own insurance, as they’re the one driving the car. It’s a massive hurdle, even if the tech was there.

Presumably there would be very tight geo-fence controls, for where it can drive, pick-up, or drop-off. (I assume this is also how Waymo works - you can’t just go anywhere, it proposes a nearby robotaxi as an option if the journey is suitable.

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123497522#Comment_123497522

They have remote assistance I believe but I don't think they can actually drive the car remotely.

And it isn't 1 person per car like Tesla seem to be planning.

sk8board

the only reason for having one person per car is the maturity of their technology.

Unlike FSD, Tesla will not be allowed play it fast and loose on robotaxi’s, anywhere.

MojoMaker

When was the last time anyone puked in a taxi?

Not sure it's a thing as much anymore given how much the social habits of folk have pivoted in recent years (and the huge expense of going out).

pah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123499460#Comment_123499460

Tuesday