Winter 2024/25 - General Discussion

nacho libre

What are your thoughts about this winter?

I think if we are to get any cold weather it will be in early winter with the rest of the winter being mild and windy. I could tolerate a mild winter overall if we got a proper cold spell during the heart of winter. I' m thinking 7-9 days of snowy cold with two or three consecutive ice days! There is not much better than seeing frost and snow hang on the trees all day in December.

Gonzo

We've been in an overall cold pattern since the beginning of June although the milder than average pattern seems to have taken over the past week with no real signs of anything cool or cold over the next few weeks unless we get high pressure centering over us leading to frost and fog.

I've been watching gavsweathervids winter updates and they seem promising pointing towards a chance that we may get a cold outbreak at some stage this winter, particularly in the first half of winter. As ever it's a case of wait and see but at this stage we are definitely overdue a properly cold outbreak this winter. We came close a few times over the last few winters but just couldn't get there in the end with the heights over Iberia just refusing to budge been a big issue for us and the high pressure just not getting to Greenland/Iceland properly and staying there for a few days.

ongarite

Higher than average temperatures forecast for southern & eastern US this winter. Could feed into more active Atlantic & winter warmth.

esposito

Same ole s***e again yeah?

The above would have been my opinion a couple months ago however something tells me this winter could be different. That’s all I’ll say for now.

DellyBelly

Where is the year gone to…Winter in less than 6 weeks time wow. It would be nice to get a few snowy days this year.

MOD NOTE: FYP. Winter starts Decemder 1st (on this forum).

pad199207

Unless we get snow any cold can stay well away. Temperatures in the teens will do all winter.

The in between cold and wet is the worst weather ever.

Billcarson

That's all I ask for any winter just one decent cold snowy spell.

Failing that ,at least one decent cold frosty spell where the frost lasts in the shade all day.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122743852#Comment_122743852

We have been snow starved since February/March 2018, hard to believe the Beast From The East will have it's 7th birthday February/March 2025. At this stage I would be more than happy to take a 2 to 3 day wonder like what we had in February 2009, it doesn't have to be a 2 week long December to Remember.

Having said all that, I think we may have a slightly better opportunity at a small slice of wintriness this winter compared to any winter since 2019. Hope I haven't jinxed things already but I'm a wee bit more hopeful about this winter.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122743716#Comment_122743716

Couldn't agree more, Snow is very much a novelty on these shores, so i'll happily put up with frozen hands and toes for a week or so if we get significant snow fall. This sh!t of freezing rain in gale force winds makes about as much appeal to me as eating a plate of raw tripe

OldRio

Winter?

Wants........

Wrapping up in warm clothes. Thick socks. Good boots. Wooly hat. Gloves. Working outside with the dog. Snow on the ground. Frost catching our breath. Long slow walk back home. Dog chasing the snow. Home. Fire blazing in hearth. Feet up. Hot whiskey at hand. Book in lap. Dog asleep by my side.

Sounds bloody wonderful.

Gets........

That's another story and it's miserable.

Supercell

From Met Éireann :

SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR November, December, 2024 and January 2025 (NDJ) 

The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending slightly below average overall.

Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period.

The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in December.

The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies later in the period.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/monthly-forecast

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122744095#Comment_122744095

I'd settle for some Ninja snow like in March this year

https://www.loughlinstown.ie/blog/loughlinstown-march-snow-2024/

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122744529#Comment_122744529

Well this is grim reading! Above average temps, mild, wet, windy weather here we come.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122744952#Comment_122744952

Mild & wet is better than cold & wet

Anyway, i wouldn't pay much attention to them LRF's/outlooks

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122744529#Comment_122744529

The SSTs are well down on last year which is a positive if you are looking for more seasonal weather this winter.

Cluedo Monopoly

I'll take plenty of snow on high ground at this point. Very little of that last year.

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122744529#Comment_122744529

Sounds like basically a re-run of every winter since 2018 ie. strong Iberian Heights and Polar Vortex with jet displaced to our North, all strongly developing from xmas onwards with Feb now very much a spring month in terms of temps. Having said that most seasonal forecasts in recent years have been rather inaccurate to say the least and this year in particular the models have performed poorly from 5 days out in many cases!!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122742727#Comment_122742727

Isn't there a school of thought that says mild for the US means better chance of cold here? Certainly extreme cold exiting the States does tend to lead to a mobile and mild Atlantic regime for these Isles

Rebelbrowser

Separately, great to see a winter thread. I post here for 6 months of the year basically like any self respecting snow junkie

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122747264#Comment_122747264

I was disappointed to see it open up so late this year, last years one opened in August haha

NickNickleby

Take heart folks. gavsweathervids swingometer is (so far) optimistic of a cold spell this winter. And, he always acknowledges a contributor called "sryanbruen" for his/her input. A name i recognise round these parts as offering valued info.

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122748366#Comment_122748366

@sryanbruen is one of the best!

DellyBelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122743705#Comment_122743705

Bit perturbed that my post was edited like this…I didn't type 6 weeks time I typed 2 weeks. Does this happen frequently where your posts are changed by someone else…surely deleting the post would be more appropriate. Still not sure why people care if some people think November is the start of winter and other say it is December…it certainly doesn't bother me

Comhrá

I would dearly love 2-3 weeks of clear frosty weather with gin blue skies by day, ideally from mid Dec to early Jan.

Just to have a proper cold frosty Christmas & New Year would be such a nice experience and a bit of nostalgia for some of us older weather fans.

brookers

I think we will get a good cold spell with heavy snow. Loads of berries this year, all types. The colours are vibrant. Growing up in the mountains of Wicklow that was a sure sign of a very cold, frosty and lots of blizzards winter.

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122750622#Comment_122750622

Remember the mornings where you’d wake up you could smell the frost in the air. The noise of the frost as it crunches under your foot as you walk.

A proper winters morning.

OldRio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122750769#Comment_122750769

And that was only in the bedroom.

Silvertap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122750769#Comment_122750769

It's been about 30 years since I heard a crunchy grass footstep. It's just not the same crispness these days

John.Icy

I reckon we are in for an absolute barnstormer of a winter, if snow and cold is what you're looking for. Polar vortex to struggle and lots of blocking opportunities and eventually the cold will be there to tap into.

From early on too, mid-November onwards I reckon cold will get going.

Mix of pure guess, tentative signs on some charts, and a bit of hope. Very mild outside of the cold snaps would be ideal however, for the bills.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122752829#Comment_122752829

If you insist says the GFS:

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122752829#Comment_122752829

I've been watching all the recent videos from Gavsweathervids and Mark Vogan in regards to winter updates and all is looking very promising with signals pointing towards cold outbreaks this winter. I hope your right, it does seem we are in with a shot of luck this winter. However we've been burnt in the past with everything looking so promising such as the bust before Christmas a few years ago. Also last winter winter once again fell apart in January so I have to keep my feet on the ground but there is definitely some hope for this winter.

Just looking at how this year has played out so far it's very different to recent years with regular cold spells since the end of May which has played out throughout all of summer 2024 and the first half of this Autumn. Will be interesting to see does this pattern continue right into the heart of winter and beyond.

Hopefully plenty of exciting model watching to come over the next few months.

adocholiday

It would be typical that after having the coolest summer in 9 years that we'd tap back into a bit of warmth for the winter! I'm not generally a fan of the cold but I'd like to see a bit of seasonal weather all the same. The Autumn has felt quite seasonal so far so hopefully that continues into winter.

nacho libre

Speaking of crunch underfoot, during that December cold spell two years ago the hoar frost started to resemble snow and it made that magical crunchy sound underfoot. I enjoyed that cold spell,it's better than mild and wet or cold and wet,but there is no substitute for snowy cold. I am hoping we have one near nationwide heavy snow fall due to a polar low this winter.

M.T. Cranium

In general terms, would expect a rather active and at times stormy pattern with some intervals of wintry weather but no prolonged episodes. Persistent above normal heights over eastern N America past month will likely drift into west-central Atlantic, result will be alternating mild westerly and cold NNW flow patterns over western Europe and some embedded deep lows.

Ashley signals that damagig winds will be quite possible with the strongest of these storms. If it can gust to 74 kts in Oct then I would not be surprised to see Darwin-like wind speeds in one or two storms. When will cold get its chances? Probably around second half of Jan into early Feb and again late Feb into early March. One or two memorable winter storms are also quite possible given variability of pattern.

Some parts of late Nov and first half of Dec likely to be less active than later on, persistent high pressure could link up with mid-Atlantic ridge so the stormy and variable pattern may not be evident at first. In early stages of quiet early pattern it could be frosty with lows around -6 C possible. Near record warmth is likely at peak westerly flow portions of winter and timing of those (on a statistical basis) is most likely to be near Dec and Jan full moons when lunar declination of 29 deg will create very strong tidal forces. If this also coincides with peak storminess, dangerous conditions could develop along western coasts.

People will likely see a similarity to 2013-14 in this, but I do expect a bit more variety of temperature regimes in winter 2024-25.

Elmer Blooker

blocked anti cyclonic spell coming up to end October, this means it will be a colder than normal winter, every decent winter has blocking in October and every mild winter is preceded by a cyclonic October, a bit late in the month for this anticyclonic spell I know but optimistic for a proper February this winter.

squarecircles

Oh well, there you go, no prolonged cold spell, have to wait untill winter 2025…of course it could be baltic cold in the summer.

Condor24

The major models long range go for above average temperatures and average precipitation for the winter months for the ones I saw recently. A very generalised outlook which doesn't preclude the chance of short colder spells. But the form horse is mild, and I can't go against that sadly. Last winter was appalling for snow in my locality, just one day with it, in March. Nature will do what she does, we might get surprises...hopefully.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122761205#Comment_122761205

The next few weeks look mild to very mild, the pattern of regular cold snaps or spells since the beginning of summer up until recently seems to have ended for now and we are back into a prolonged mild setup. The cold snaps could come back for the winter which is wishful thinking considering how poor winters have performed since 2019. For me last winter/season hit an all time low without a single flake of snow during Winter or Spring. That 1 morning of snow around 1st of March just fell as cold rain here in Meath so we got absolutely nothing last year. This winter/season can only be an improvement.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122761597#Comment_122761597

In reference to the next few weeks being mild/very mild it looks like early November could very well be on the chilly side with frost at night. Potential for a return of a cold snap....

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122763625#Comment_122763625

Yes, it all depends on the placement of the high. As birdnut mentioned I wouldn't put too much stock in what seasonal models have to say because in recent winters they have performed poorly enough.

compsys

From June to early October Ireland had a run of almost four and a half consecutive months with temperatures below the long-term average. (Dublin and the south east were slightly above average in August but the country as a whole was below).

This would be considered a bit unusual/unlucky in normal times. But almost unheard of today given the rapidly warming climate. I'm not sure when the last time Ireland, or indeed any country, experienced a run this bad?

I'm not a believer in long-term forecasts. But I am a firm believer that things tend to even out over the medium to long term.

Because of this, I just can't see the next few months also being below average. They'll probably be well above average at least until the end of January. Already the second half of October has been extremely mild. And the mid-range forecast into November has high pressure and 12º uppers over us - the type of weather you'd expect in summer.

Hopefully we might get a cold month in February (but it'll probably be March and/or April knowing our luck). But then hopefully we might be back into a run of warmer than average temps for next summer.

But I can't see cold weather and snow any time soon.

The form horse is wet and mild. We might get a couple of frosty nights here and there. Some transient snow for mainly the North West, if we get any at all.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122770984#Comment_122770984

That's basically summed up every winter since 2019 in a nutshell.

mcburns07

Seems to be a lot of reverse pyschology going on in this thread!

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772056#Comment_122772056

I'd call it pragmatism.

Snow is rare in Ireland. Even more so in a warming climate.

Our winters in particular have been extremely mild and above average in recent years (our summers not nearly as much unfortunately). And there is nothing to suggest this winter should be markedly different.

And we've just gone through an unusual >4 month cool spell meaning we've already had our share of cold weather for the year.

If we get snow and cold this winter then great. But I'd be far more critical and sceptical of the people saying we're going to get a cold winter than those who are just being honest.

Billcarson

Since the middle of this month things seemed to have changed. Milder weather getting its claws in. I liked the first half of this autumn but since the middle of this month it's like the same ol crap again these days. Was hopeful a few days ago of a chilly early November but that ended up a bust.

JanuarySnowstor

In over 50 years of watching weather I've seen one cold November and that was 2010. Far better to get the boring stuff now when in reality it's far too early to get snow anyway...

I understand the thinking that mild has been dominant over recent winters but 2018 delivered more snow than I'd seen in 50 years and that's only 6 years ago...

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

One of the best snow events we ever got was on 11th February 2021. I think it was quite localized but it was lovely snow.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

You're correct. Cold weather in November is usually useless as it'll rarely be cold enough for snow. So better to get the 'boring' weather out of the way now. But I can't see a flip back to cooler weather again any time soon.

Mind you, the charts for November look like the sort of stuff you'd dream of for summer.

It's so frustrating that it's happening now so close to winter.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

What about the cold weather in Nov off the top of my head in 85, 88, 93 etc.

Not that I would expect anything too significant in November anyway but would just like it to have a seasonal chill if possible at least.

typhoony

The Atlantic conveyor belt has been on hold which is unusual in modern times. You can expect it to fire up by mid-november when the cold air eventually mixes with the milder than usual Atlantic it will generate moisture laden low pressure systems. Just have a hunch we'll see some very wet weather by the end of November