Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
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Some very heavy rain now expected on Saturday with embedded thunderstorms possible according to the models especially in southern counties and looking a bit windier now also as the large area of LP comes close to Ireland and drawing up long trailing fronts over the country . Could see yellow or Orange rainfall warnings again in the South, wind is below yellow warning criteria . Remaining unsettled into Sun and Mon with showers or heavy showers and more prolonged spells of rain .
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The models have moved back from any excessive rain in the two warning counties , along coastal fringes getting the most and even at that not huge.
Models have been downgrading it for a few runs now moving the heaviest rainfall offshore, perhaps Met Eireann will remove the warnings.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1602
A chance of lower level wind warnings for the northwest this weekend as a deep area of low pressure tracks to the northwest. It appears, at this stage, that ridging pressure from the continent should steer the system away from a more direct track over Ireland.
www.weatheire.com
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On this evenings run the ECM has the storm a lot closer than the GFS
At t120 you can see the kink in the isobars to the SW of Ireland
T144 it has deepened to 965mb off the NW coast. One to keep an eye on
The GFS has more of a high pressure influence over Ireland t120
T144 it’s a nasty low 955mb but much farther off shore and ends up tracking past the east coast of Iceland
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Certainly looking like a named event might be on the cards for Sunday. A lot of the models coming into line now on the 06z run with strong winds mainly for the West on Sunday afternoon but a lot of the country getting into the yellow warning criteria. Following on from @.Donegal. post, the other models have nudged the low closer to us and ECM and UKMO are showing quite a deep system with very tight gradients. If it continues to nudge eastwards then we could be looking at a potent storm. GFS still keeping things a bit further off shore so less impact but the trend is definitely a shift eastwards for now.
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Friday fairly breezy to windy / blustery in its own right accompanied with some heavy rain especially along western coastal areas and along the South perhaps. Mild enough in Southerly breezes and cooling down later in the post frontal airmass.
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Huge deep storm with a large wind field from the ECM and UKMO but a lot different and less potent looking on the GFS. ECM's latest run has it tracking a bit further North all right, very strong frontal passage winds overnight into early morning, windy to blustery day and later the W and NW getting a second brush of the strong winds.
Sundays projected storm off the West coast is just two days after the highest Spring tide of some of the highest tides of the year. Sunday morning high tides 07.10 in Fenit, Co Kerry, 07.36 Galway . Not too much rain over the coming days and spread out but rivers will start flowing more again.
Could be a bit of extra surge on Fri from the LP and definitely Sunday I would think giving the added risk of coastal overtopping and flooding .
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1602
As stated above, the ECM has upgraded the wind potential for Sunday withn a deep area of low pressure anchored to our northwest. A named storm would be likely if the latest output were to verify. The strongest winds affecting Connacht, West Munster, Ulster and north Leinster.
www.weatheire.com
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