Manchester United Thread 25/26 - Teamtalk/Transfers/Gossip Mod Note in OP 26.09.24

crusd

I have reached the conclusion that the only viable solution for the current issue is relegation, administration and a forced sale. Anything else is just going to leave a zombie club, just about able to service the Glazer debt but not able to invest in the playing staff or ground.

There was fan fiction back in the days when FC United was formed of the Glazers bringing the club to Liquidation and a phoenix club coming out of the FC United project. That is preferable to what we have now.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207231#Comment_123207231

So easy, and yet your point would have to rely on: everyone at United not seeing it. Which i doubt.

Take Casmiro for example - what if the best bid we could get for him was 5m and they'd only pay him 100k a week.

That leaves us we an immediate 25million transfer fee loss + the trying to negotiate with Casemiro on 19millon in wages he would be missing out on. Lets say he accepted half of that as a pay off… we have taken in 5million, payed out 10million and put a MASSIVE loss on the books.

An extreme example, but its the type of issue we are looking at.

Who is gonna pay anything for Mount, or pay him anything? Same for Shaw.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207258#Comment_123207258

Or, Glazers sell their shares to INEOS as they had already agreed to do in the past.

The Big Easy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207275#Comment_123207275

I think the big issue as I said earlier they still believe there is non realised revenue/value in the club and want that priced into any deal and for abviius reasons INEOS or anyone else isn't willing (fiscally cannot sanction) such a deal.

So we're stuck with the Glazers not wanting to leave any money on the table - real, intangible, imagined or otherwise

thefa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207231#Comment_123207231

Not that simple. Say there is a buyer but not willing to pay the full wages (which is understandable), you’ll likely have to reach a large settlement to buy off the rest of the contract. Casemeiro is reported to be on up to £18m per year which may be less without champions league but stilll.

Then there’s the amortization which people forget about. At a club level it’s a little over 50% of the salaries/wages on average. Casemeiro’s base transfer was £60m (probably more with add ons) which over the 4 year term is £15m per year. By January there’s already 2.5 years done with about £22.5m left. You’ll need to write that off when you sell him less any proceeds (keep in mind you’ve already amortized £7.5m in the first half of 24/25 too).

Now there are some moves that could possibly be made where you try to make it a loan with obligation to buy in 25/26 but these are huge hits from just 1 big fk up.

Factor in parts of the above costs in light of how precarious the position is meant to be in terms of financial fair play/psr being breached this year and it’s likely that he won’t be going anywhere soon.

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207275#Comment_123207275

You think the Glazers will sell the club for its true value? And where does the debt go? The 300million in transfer fee instalments due? The same problems remain regardless of whether its Ineos or the Glazers. They have cost greater than revenue and very low levels of cash. The only real solution is to have the club financially un-viable and a forced sale, which would clear the debt.

Eg. Liquidate Red Football Limited and sell Man Utd FC brand and grounds with creditors paid from proceeds.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207284#Comment_123207284

TBF, I think that is likely a Joel and Avram bit - I reckon you could (depending on any legal issues with public ones) but from the other siblings 'easily' enough. Which would (i think) give INEOS majority ownership.

And, Joel and Avram have already previously agreed to sell at the value that INEOS have already paid. So its not like it should seem impossible to convince them.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207327#Comment_123207327

They already agreed to sell for a price that INEOS agreed to pay…

We may as well leave it there, as there is no way I will ever agree that liquidating the club and starting as a new club, with no history, no ground, no players etc etc etc in the conference leagues is the best and only way forward for the club.

The Big Easy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207349#Comment_123207349

Do you think INEOS/SJR would be still happy to pay that premium now?

They were never willing to pay it for the public shares which was the ultimate stumbling block, now I'm not so sure they'd be willing to pay that premium for the Glazers shares even.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207418#Comment_123207418

No idea. I suspect yes cause they are commited at this point. But yeah, maybe they would only offer 25 or so now.

I think we have to find out relatively soon - as I think the stadium, and the refinancing of the Debt Bonds will come up in the relatively near future - and I think they will want ownership and control resolved before then. The interest we pay on the debt bonds at the moment is FAR better than the rates you would be looking at now. (but maybe not in 2027). The refinancing is a ticking time bomb.

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207358#Comment_123207358

But thats not what I said. You liquidate the holding company and sell the club and grounds as a going concern. A liquidation of a holding company does not liquidate all the assets held by the club. There is the points deduction for administration. But you are left with a club with no debt and a massive fanbase.

What the Glazers want is to continue to bleed the asset until they get some fanciful valuation that does not reflect the fundamentals of the club. Increasingly its clear that I dont think Ineos fully understood what they were getting into either, or they did but it was a Ratcliffe vanity project in that he believed he could fix it with his "marginal gains" cycling guru. In which case what he is doing is essentially trying to do it on the cheap. Cut cut cut and build a young cheap team to tide them over until the financial position improves. At a minimum 5 years until any hope of a turnaround on the pitch.

Whereas as reset starts a fresh in 12 months and allows you to build unencumbered.

Ottoman_1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207231#Comment_123207231

But who will match their wages and sign them? I mean, its not rocket science why these players can't be moved on. There's simply no one going to pay them what they currently earn at UTD, and why would they move on, and take huge pay cuts while doing it?

Ottoman_1000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207252#Comment_123207252

The problem with that is however, none of these players are going to big clubs at this stage of their careers. And those potentially smaller clubs that go in for them, will not want to disrupt their current wages structure, regardless of fees saved in transfers. Add in that most of these players have suspect injury records, so why would you be handing them a huge wage?

Rocket_GD

I think some people believe it's like Football Manager/FIFA, just offer the players up and someone will come along and take them. Transfers and contracts are far more nuanced than that unfortunately as has been excellently described above by other posters.

Some fans just like to rant and I can't say I blame them too much with the dross that we're watching and how the Manchester United name is consistently dragged through the mud.

Mitch Connor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207507#Comment_123207507

You said sell the stadium to pay off the debt. and the brand, whatever that would entail.

So now we have to rent the stadium.

I don't think liquidating the company that owns United would be as clean as you are suggestion tbh.

I also disagree on the liklihood of the glazers selling.

I also disagree on INEOS looking to do it on the cheap. near 200m on transfers last summer. We litterally spent the maximum we could with respect to PSR. They are looking to build a brand new state of the art stadium. they have invested hugely into the training ground already.

DrPhilG

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207087#Comment_123207087

I was picturing Sir Jim in an airport hanger in Saudi, rolling Casemiro off the back of his jet on a gurney Hannibal Lecter style.

"Give us £50m for him or we'll take the mask off"!

That image would work better with Suarez but ah well.

ericzeking

The Casemiro deal was one of the most Bonkers of all time in fairness…..people go on about Antony, but at least he was only 21 and on relatively modest wages, he'll show something on loan and we'll get alot of it back….But 60 million and a massive 4 or 5 year contract for a 31 year old….it was absolutely insane, it's all dead money and massive loss making to cut loose.

And I wouldn't be surprised if the whole scenario is impacting on what limited contribution he can make….he's waiting out the contract, the club is waiting out the contract and you end up with the unmotivated zombie player we see of a Saturday.

Toranaga

United were in the Champions league last year and it was only a few years ago they were posting record profits even with the debt payments.

A major roadblock appears to be the amount of transfer fees owed at the moment and the monumental amount of money wasted on that front has been a real car crash since the moment Fergie and Gill walked out the door.

And a lot of it is honestly tough to explain, bit of Murphy's law at this point I think...

loyatemu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207724#Comment_123207724

he was one of the best midfielders in the world and was excellent in his first season for us. Obviously it's a gamble as to whether a player can keep going into their 30s, a 2 or 3 year deal would have been more sensible.

54and56

The Antony and Sancho transfers are examples of poor recruitment but given their ages both had potential sell on value (to offset the high transfer fee) if they didn't work out.

The Casemiro transfer however is, in my opinion, systemically negligent in that not only was a crazy transfer fee paid for a 31 year old but a crazy length of contract was offered at crazy wages. For this transfer to have worked out Casemiro would have to have somehow turned back the closk to the player he was aged 26 and that was never going to happen. The obvious risk recruiting a 31 year old defensive midfielder with a lot of mileage on the clock from a league with less intensity than than the PL was he would fade rather than blossom, there would be £0 sell on value and zero motivation for him to go to another club if it didn't work out as he can simply hang around picking up huge wages and run down his contract.

From a financial and strategy perspective the Casemiro transfer will be looked back on as an unmitigated disaster which could, depending on how things play out, turn out to be what pushed the club into a further downward cycle that might take a decade or more to recover from.

With no European football next year total income will be reduced meaning less £'s available for transfers and new player wages as the annual debt payments will continue to be made and the deferred payments on previous transfers will have to be made.

Attracting elite talent to the club will be much harder given no European football, no prospect of a PL challenge (in the short term at least) and simply better options for a happier life and success elsewhere.

Breaking this cycle requires both a financial / ownership re-set and cultural re-set within the team environment. Neither are easy to do and both will take years to bear fruit.

Bringing in new managers from time to time and swapping players in and out is pure deflection and nothing more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It doesn't address the underlying systemic problems.

As long as the debt remains the club will be financially hamstrung.

As long as the Glazers remain majority owners they will extract as much cash as they can leaving just enough in the kitty for the club to limp along which it has done now for over a decade and could well do for another decade or more.

Mantis Toboggan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207824#Comment_123207824

He was a decent midfielder in a team that had 3 midfielders and averaged 70% possession each week. No way was he ever one of the best in the world.

Definitely up there with the Antony, Mount and Sancho as worst ever transfers.

The Big Easy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207473#Comment_123207473

I had similarly hoped INEOS would've picked off the other Glazer sibling's shares and maybe that will still happen hopefully.

It's all a bit forlorn from the outside looking in. But I have a bit more faith/optimism in SJR than many have and will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt in the medium-term.

Dano650

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207873#Comment_123207873

Casemiro was more than a decent player. He was world class in his position in his prime. He was the glue in that Real team that held them together defensively and allowed Modric and Kroos the freedom to do what they needed to do. You don't win 3 La Liga's, 5 champions leagues and a Copa America for being a decent player

IncognitoMan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207612#Comment_123207612

It's actually difficult enough to sell off the same Utd players on Football manager due to their wages and the players not wanting to "downgrade" as big clubs generally don't come in for them..

It's not even that easy to clear house on a virtual version of our mismatched squad 🤣

FourFourRED

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207945#Comment_123207945

Saudi always come in for Casemiro in the January 2024 window 😅 If they managed to put a game out this year we would know if it still happens 😂

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207945#Comment_123207945

Oh I know, often end up paying 50% of their wages just to get rid of them 😂

PARlance

I get annoyed seeing the way Casemiro is spoken about, similar to the way Cavani was spoken about. Two players who, over the course of their careers, were seen as really good professionals.

Seeing Casemiro on huge wages is hard to take but every bit of frustration for me is directed at the club. Once a player is given a contract, they're perfectly entitled to see that contract out. The craziness of the contract is not his fault.

He has been called a unmotivated zombie player and worse. I just don't get that. If someone offered any of us a ridiculous deal, I'm not sure we would be walking away from it. He is available when called on, I don't see the lack of motivation. I'm sure he's fairly frustrated just like the rest of us.

His performances this season and last have been very poor on the whole. But what do fans expect. ETH had us playing in a way that totally exposed midfield, prime Kante would have struggled to cover the danger - an aging Casemiro was always going to struggle. Fast forward to this season, he's getting limited game time and when he is thrown in, he is very poor. But again - what should we expect, some players need to build up a run of games before getting up to speed. Amorim is only using him when stuck and he struggles when called upon for occasional games, totally expected imo.

I don't / can't feel sorry for any player on 300k odd a week but there's no way they get any of my anger. The club made it's bed, a fairly ridiculous and costly one.

BenK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123207968#Comment_123207968

To be fair I think most people's frustrations with the Casemiro deal are aimed squarely at the club not the player. Definitely not his fault in the slightest.

I think at the time (might still be the case) that outside of Ronaldo it was the most amount of money ever paid for a player over 30. Insane stuff.

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123208096#Comment_123208096

The contract was completely insane stuff. Maybe I'm overreacting to the criticism of the player but I have seen a lot of it. It's 100% on the club for me.

BenK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123208118#Comment_123208118

100% agree, sure what are you going to do as a player, turn down someone trying to pay you ridiculous sums of money on a long term contract!? It was the ultimate reactionary short term signing by the club. You reap what you sow.