Tour de France 2024 - this time it’s personal

Brian?

I don’t like the route. Not enough high mountains. But it’s going to be interesting.

I don’t do previews properly. But I do create threads and Velogames leagues. The league will come.

Dr. Bre

cheers Brian! Looking forward to the velogames again and changing my team everyday till it starts cos I can’t make up my mind who to pick !

eagle eye

Nice one Brian!

Looking forward to it. I'm looking for some young lad to turn up and shock the world and make it competitive.

Brian?

I’m predicting Bernal will finish on the Podium. I have an irrational belief he’ll come good again.

Dodge

mark padun 😂

eagle eye

I'm shouting for Sepp Kuss

werenotthere

Stefan kung breezed past me in gran canaria in january and chatted at the top of the climb.... so I am all about groupama fdj. Fan boy

Danny healy ray

mark padun is my man he has an aunt living in kenmare

happytramp

Definitely have a soft spot for Rodriguez after watching the ineos episode of the tdf doc.

retalivity

Jonas to sandbag/play dead for a while then destroy everyone in week 3. UAE look super strong though, could see Pog or even Yates/Ayuso winning it and not be surprised

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122280912#Comment_122280912

That's my hope too!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122280931#Comment_122280931

That's also my hope too!

I'd love to see a French rider/ team to do something at this Tour. Is Lulu down to race? All hell will break lose when they finally produce a Tour winner. When they do, I hope he's classically French and not a Sky/ JV style robot.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122281819#Comment_122281819

are the Partypants brothers riding? They should be good for a stage win at least.

I can’t see a French tour winner in the current crop or the juniors.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282362#Comment_122282362

Martinez and Gregoire are the great new hopes. Gaudu looks a busted flush.

I see Visma announced the team, and another bloody blue kit.

https://twitter.com/vismaleaseabike/status/1803739678660518265

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282362#Comment_122282362

That's depressing. Where are they going wrong? Too much nostalgia for old-school way of doing things? Gaudu has been really disappointing since his breakthrough year… he looked like their best shot in years. A huge amount of pressure on any youth coming through.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282461#Comment_122282461

I think it might be focus. Cycling isn’t in the top 3 sports in France anymore I think. Football, Rugby and Basketball are all more popular

eagle eye

Vingegaard in it. The picture is interesting. Sepp seems to have a slightly bigger frame than Vingegaard and WVA and the rest have smaller frames. Does that mean Kuss is no.1 and Vin isn't ready to compete for the win so will be a super domestique for as long as he can go?

CramCycle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282632#Comment_122282632

The next two responses refer to Jonas and Wout, as if they are the focus and the next one has Jonas in the front ahead of Sepp and Wout. Either a complaint went in or they want all angles covered dependent on who does best.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122282632#Comment_122282632

Kuss only has a bigger frame as he won the vuelta last year, he has shown zero form this year so far, if anything jorgenson should be plan b instead of him.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283641#Comment_122283641

Maybe but when have you seen Kuss show form before the TDF?

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283655#Comment_122283655

Last year, dragging roglic around italy? Kuss went to the dauphine this year and was repeatedly dropped very early…not a good sign

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283761#Comment_122283761

It could be a very good sign actually. He just came down from altitude and will peak for the tour.

MangleBadger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122283773#Comment_122283773

I think it was also mentioned that he was carrying some form of illness

retalivity

Froome not picked for IPT. The right call, but im shocked they actually did it

Macy0161

tao geoghegan hart out as not recovered from illness. He'd surely rival Eddie in the unluck stakes.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122286359#Comment_122286359

I'm shocked he's still racing! Genuinely, I have heard so little about him recently, and given his complete lack of results since his accident, I'd assumed he'd quietly hung up his wheels at the end of last season. Is he still on gazillions at IPT?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122286438#Comment_122286438

He just finished 81st at the Dauphinie, and even put in a shift at the Tour of Rwanda in February.

Not quite earning those gazillions but not got his feet up either.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/christopher-froome

Macy0161

Only time he was at the front at the Dauphine was when the race was stopped and he was trying to get it neutralised!

odyssey06

On saturday evening TG4 will be repeating a documentary about Sam Bennett and the 2020 Tour de France.

Bambaata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122286359#Comment_122286359

I was hoping they'd bring him and that he'd miss time cut in the first mountain stage. Its laughable that the chap still has a contract, was hoping bringing him as team leader might be the final straw to end the madness.

andyd12

Jorgensen has come out and said that the idea of Vingegaard supporting him is not true.

I find it hard to believe that Vingegaard can match current Pogacar and UAE. Perhaps they are hoping he grows into it as the tour progresses

Dodge

Sam Bennett confirmed in the Decathlon team. No lead out for him. We go in hope more than expectation

Squidgy Black

Asgreen being left out of Quicksteps team for the tour apparently, he confirmed it himself in an interview with Danish media

Squidgy Black

Also Tiesj Benoot said nobody from Jumbo is expecting Jonas to podium, think we’ll hear a lot of this over the next couple weeks playing down their expectations etc

https://archive.is/2024.06.23-053940/https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/interview-tiesj-benoot-over-bk-van-aert-en-vingegaard-niemand-van-de-ploeg-durft-geld-inzetten-dat-jonas-het-tourpodium-haalt~a4060ced/

martco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122297337#Comment_122297337

so if no leadout help I assume that means there's no real prospect of Green for him…maybe just the shot at a stage somewhere on the route? or are there ever any unofficial alliances struck up in that kind of scenario between riders?

CramCycle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122298700#Comment_122298700

Its a catch 22, I think Sam needs to win stage 3 to, as they say, be on the ascendency. He is a rider who thrives on wins and it changes his attitude quick. The downside to this is that it means he will be isolated immediately but I think he would be best going for that as once he is in sniffing distance the same thing will happen regardless. Jasper won't be able to help himself and if justice prevails, will get himself DQd or routinely relegated although for some reason he seems to be immune to the wrath of Comms in the Tour.

Dodge

I think the role of a lead out is somewhat over stated. Philipsen has won sprints with just MVDP doing a turn for him. Bora had Van Poppel but Sam and now Welsford have struggled. There have been loads of sprints won by someone coming around the final man in a lead out. I think Merlier goes better on his own too. Cav at his peak had 3/4 in his team and they were a machine. Don’t think there’s anything like them now

If one team leads out, and others have someone to bring their sprinter into the final 5-700m, then they can all have their own chances. Sam’s won two stages. One with a lead out, one when he did his own thing.

Lots of sprint stages this year. Only need one to have a perfect day…

retalivity

Godon & Naesen will be the quasi-leadout I guess, guide Sam into some kind of position in the last 1-2k, then it'll be up to himself to probably latch on to other teams/trains.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122298700#Comment_122298700

I'm not sure that was ever realistic really. He's not shown much to be considered in the elite tier of sprinters nowadays. Always possible he can win a stage but not sure he's going to be consistently up there like Philipsen or Pedersen will be.

retalivity

Velogames is open, even though all teams are yet to be finalised

https://www.velogames.com/velogame/2024/

bmc58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122280931#Comment_122280931

Bernal's day is gone,IMO.Vingergaard will give Pogacar plenty to do.Roglic is past his best.Sam Bennet to win a couple of stages could be a good bet.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299495#Comment_122299495

Bennett will be lucky to win one. Unless it's like the year Cavendish did because everyone else ended up injured.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299502#Comment_122299502

Yup, feel like Cav as well will be very lucky to win one.

No idea what shape WVA will be in and if he's going to be a threat there, but feels like most sprints will go between Philipsen, Pedersen (few harder stages could suit him) and possibly De Lie (though he's closer to the Bennett, Jacobsen, Groenewegen tier than he is to Philipsen).

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299936#Comment_122299936

De lie beat Philipsen, Merlier and WVA in a sprint at the belgian nationals yesterday

Dodge

was a great win, a tough classic style race rather than a pure sprint but he led it out and they didn’t get close.

For me the sprint tiers would be

1 Philipsen & Merlier (if picked, unlikely)

2 De Lie

3 WVA & Pedersen (if they’re tougher days especially)

4 Gronewegen, Bennett, Jacobsen, Cavendish, Demare, Bauhaus, Van den Berg

I think for anyone in tier 4 there to win a stage, something has to happen a couple of the top 2. WVA & Pedersen will fight for green and get a load of top 10s but I’d fancy someone from 4 to beat them on a great day, but they’d have to pick their days (if that makes sense)

Brian?

I’ve created the League:

https://www.velogames.com

229432142

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300314#Comment_122300314

I think you’re right. But there are plenty of lumpy stages where the final sprint will be WVA v Pedersen I think.

I don’t really give Sam much of a shout. I DO NOT look forward to all the Eurosport lads talking up Cavendish before every sprint stage.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299495#Comment_122299495

I said it was an irrational belief in him. I still believe though.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300238#Comment_122300238

Until he starts doing it consistently and at WT level races (which he has not so far), I wouldn't be putting him at the level of Philipsen for this Tour (he's very young though so who knows his ceiling)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300421#Comment_122300421

I really hope this is actually Cavendish's last tour. I'm sick of hearing about that record.

Also he is now "sir Mark" which the English commentators will feel the need to say every single time.

Paddigol

For me, the best thing about Cav retiring will be not having to read so many posts obsessing about him before he even clips in 😆

Macy0161

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300427#Comment_122300427

I'd have De Lie more in the vein of WvA and Mads tbh. He's going to be a classics contender. Sam can be there longer than a lot of sprinters too on the lumpy stages.