2024 Hurricane season

star gazer

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is being forecasted on the high side from several reputable sources, the Gulf of Mexico is much warmer than usual as is the main development area of the North Atlantic which will add moisture and energy to storms. The Pacific is also transitioning to a La Nina which is usually more conducive to conditions more favourable for development.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058350595/2024-n-atlantic-tropical-season-forecast-contest-enter-by-1st-of-june

Forecasting Hurricanes from NOAA, for some explanations of what's involved.

A potential tropical storm that is forecast to cause severe flooding regardless of if it fully develops or not with a 70% formation chance:

Seven day forecast graphic NOAA

"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
   the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
   northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
   forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
   Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear
   conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
   tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
   it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent."

There's also a second disturbance with a current 30% formation chance.

igCorcaigh

Could be a busy one! Lots of warm water around there…

star gazer

The list of names for when the Tropical Storms are judged to have formed:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

star gazer

Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is having impacts hundreds of kilometers away from its centre with storm surge flooding as far away as Texas.

NHC advisory 8A:

LOCATION...22.2N 95.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

star gazer

Tropical Storm Beryl has formed and is forecast to become a Hurricane shortly. There's a serious chance it gets to Major Hurricane strength. One to watch.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2%2Bshtml/290836.shtml?

…

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane
   when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
   bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
   dangerous storm surge and waves.
2. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional
   Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will
   likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
   Islands later today.
3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
   progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
   uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
   details of the track or intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 9.8N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 10.3N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 11.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.6N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.4N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.3N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.8N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

Forecaster Beven

igCorcaigh

Here we go. Busy season ahead!

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1807385011932324038?t=hn-oXBrsD6dFffSae_8RQQ&s=19

adocholiday

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/beryl-makes-history-as-first-cat-4-hurricane-to-form-in-june/article_8793f516-36ed-11ef-9da8-9f758c022ea0.html

First ever Cat 4 hurricane in June now. If it gears up to be a busy storm season I wonder how we will fare out. A brief look at the Atlantic sea temperature shows that it's still tracking around last year's very high temps but the anomalous heat is in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. The northern half is actually trending cooler so let's hope it pans out well for us

Brief_Lives

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122324248#Comment_122324248

earliest Cat 4 in June… madness… this is the current image from Ventusky

wazzzledazzle

@sryanbruen (or anyone) will/could this storm potentially impact the JS and it's positioning? I'm not familiar with the vagueries of Hurricanes

star gazer

Major Hurricane Beryl is just after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The damage is likely to be severe for the islands near the core's path.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2%2Bshtml/011255.shtml?

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
900 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...900 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the Windward Islands and expected to make landfall
within the next few hours.

A weather station in Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (95 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM AST (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...12.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

star gazer

Beryl Max sustained winds up to 240 km/h, 150mph in the lastest NHC update statement.

bnt

USA Today has a summary of Beryl and the season start here.

Beryl – a major hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph and higher gusts – tore across the southerly end of the Windward Islands on Monday, leaving potentially catastrophic damage in its wake on the Grenadine Islands and Grenada. Its meteoric increase in wind speeds broke records over the weekend.

"It's very impressive how many different superlatives there are for Beryl,"
Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer for DTN Weather, told
USA TODAY on Sunday. The first hurricane on record to reach major
hurricane status before July 1, Beryl also surprised forecasters with
its early season arrival, so far south in the Atlantic.

On Sunday evening, a system that had been brewing for a couple of days in the
northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Chris as it approached a forecast landfall on the Mexican coast That puts the
season weeks ahead of normal. In a typical year, the season doesn't
produce three named storms until Aug. 3.

Kermit.de.frog

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ce0TUdiGc

The upstream conditions in the Western Caribbean are very unfavourable in the next few days with increasing shear from upper level winds so the storm's structure looks like it's going to deteriorate notably with the visible eyewall disappearing and the whole lot getting lopsided and messy as it moves closer to Jamaica. NHC has it as an off shore CAT 2 by Wednesday evening our time. Still potential for real disruption and rain affects but nowhere near what it is now in terms of the powerful winds .

star gazer

Beryl has strengthened to a Category 5 Hurricane. It's the earliest forming one on record. A very anxious wait for Jamaica as to it's exact track and how much it will weaken by, as forecasts are suggesting.

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...14.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

josip

Why do some hurricanes like Beryl not veer north?

Are there weather system elsewhere at the moment that are countering the Coriolis effect or is it due to something else?

star gazer

The initial motion is a quick 285/19 kt.  A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 24-36 h and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico around 72 h.  After that, there is a significant
spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the
strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the
southern United States.  Thus, there remains considerable
uncertainty in the track forecast during the latter part of the
forecast period.

JanuarySnowstor

We haven't had a hurricane hit the US now for several years, thankfully sparing many lives. Are we naieve enough to think this is purely down to luck?!

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332541#Comment_122332541

Your first sentence is incorrect.

Not sure what your second sentence would imply?

pauldry

Jamaica will get a bad hit. Even a direct hit from a CAT 2 will cause notable damage. In the next 4 hours we find out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122329092#Comment_122329092

There's a ridge of high pressure to the north of Beryl. This will block any poleward movement until it moves or declines.

764dak

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334894#Comment_122334894

It doesn't seem that bad where I live.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122325450#Comment_122325450

I'm a bit late in answering this but I'm sure you know the answer now if you've been keeping up to date with its progression. Beryl won't influence the jet stream or weather pattern for us. It's heading towards southeast Mexico with a central path just south of Cancun and then pass the Bay of Campeche dissipating towards northeast Mexico/south Texas.

Future tropical cyclones could shake up the pattern but until then, we're unlikely to change out of this rot without some large global weather pattern flip that would buckle the jet stream.

star gazer

Beryl downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it cuts across Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. Once back over water, watch for how fast it can reorganise itself and then the rate at which it intensifies again. It is forecast to get back up to Hurricane strength with time over warm waters and the centre could make landfall on the Texas coast or North Eastern Mexico. Lots of variables in the mix, still dangerous.

pauldry

Windy app has it making landfall near Houston as a Cat 2. Could have a sting in the tail for millions yet.

ascophyllum

Icon has been showing it as a strong hurricane landfall near Houston for the last week or so. ECM and GFS were showing Northern Mexico/South Texas but are now steadily moving north much closer to Icon's track. Its a remarkable performance for Icon if it tracks there and a fascinating storm overall. Huge problems for Houston/Texas coastline coming.

traco

Looks like it will make landfall as a strong tropical storm or lower level Cat 1. Flooding will be the big concern now as it moves inland. It will drop a huge amount of rain.

I don't know if you guys are aware of this iste but I have been useing it for years to keep an eye on storms. Its very simple and gives basic tracking info.

https://tropicalstormrisk.com/

bnt

Rain and flooding are major concerns for my friends in Pearland, south of Houston. Hurricane Ike arrived literally the week after they moved there, and they were fortunate to escape major damage then. They are a couple of hundred metres from a creek, and last time the water was millimetres from flooding their house. This time should not be as bad in theory.

star gazer

Tropical Depression 4 is forecast to have significant rainfall for parts of Florida and along the Southeast US coast and get close to hurricane strength around landfall so there is a Hurricane watch for parts of Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 22.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

star gazer

Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to become a hurricane today with rapid strengthening as it moves over warm waters ongoing and it's expected to be slow moving with some severe rainfall totals forecast over the coming days: one inch = about 25mm NHC

"RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20
inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected
through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may
result in areas of catastrophic flooding."

"Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES"

star gazer

Hurricane Debby just made landfall. It should weaken over land but is forecast to get out over water again by Georgia/South Carolina coasts and have a chance to strengthen a bit again for a day of more, all the while moving slowly and dumping a lot of rain in the area.

adocholiday

An interesting development being monitored in the equatorial Atlantic now, the potential for an Atlantic Niña to develop. The area where this happens is cooling more rapidly than has ever been recorded before and it may impact the Pacific Niña developing in September as initially forecast. The result could be a "dampening effect on hurricane activity" in the North Atlantic, with other knock on effects in other areas. Will be interesting to see how this develops.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention

https://archive.ph/0uwvT7

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122525718#Comment_122525718

Interesting article, somehow I didnt know we got Atlantic Nino/Nina's before, always good to learn something new!

JanuarySnowstor

We've had several years now of hurricanes not hitting land (as in widespread destruction) For me this is because weather modification has been discovered and simple forming of lows in the right place can divert / weaken storms. Just my thoughts!

igCorcaigh

After all the hype, then…?

https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1831058867142402140

Robwindstorm

So much for the predicted busy hurricane season. F

Rikand

The Atlantic La Nina is baring her teeth

star gazer

Tropical Storm Francine has formed and is now not far from the coast of Northeastern Mexico, forecast to strengthen further, passing not far off the coast of Texas and make Category 2 Hurricane by landfall which at this point is expected to be the Louisiana coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al06/al062024.discus.006.shtml?

Robwindstorm

I believe it's the longest lull in tropical storm development in over 50 years, despite this season being forecast to be extremely active. The scientists are putting it down to unusual weather over Africa with rain falling on the Sahara desert disrupting storm development. They still think that there's going to be a sudden explosion in storms from now until the season ends. It will be interesting to see how it will affect our weather .

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600827#Comment_122600827

Rain seeding over Africa to prevent hurricanes forming? Seems quite possible to me

M.T. Cranium

Since the powerful start of season (Beryl) it appears that African easterly waves have been tracking too far north and failing to seed Atlantic hurricanes. This has ended any real chance for 2024 to be a monster year as many had predicted, but as a negative factor it will soon be replaced by seasonal shifts of storm genesis to western half of Atlantic (and the African waves will not track as far north either).

The season could therefore undergo a resurgence and end up near average for recent years (16/9/3 is about the average for 1991-2020). Count is 6/4/1 at present.

PokeHerKing

Seems to be picking up now:

ascophyllum

Some very interesting model-watching been going on since last week for this next system in the gulf, a lot of variability still but gfs going for a pretty big hurricane to hit Florida in about 4-5 days.

ascophyllum

GFS 12z has a very nasty looking hurricane

Kermit.de.frog

The structure starting to look a bit healthier.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

star gazer

Tropical Storm Helene has formed and is forecast to be a Major Hurricane at Landfall on Thursday evening local time along the Florida Gulf coast.

star gazer

Hurricane Helene up to 130km/h 80mph, still due rapid strengthening. It's important that it miss a direct hit on Tallahassee and not get close to Tampa Bay. Life-threatening storm surge and severe flooding along with Category three winds all make for a very worrying mix.

Rain from the West

It's currently following a similar track like Michael did in 2018. That made landfall as a Cat 5 in the Panhandle with disastrous results.

Kermit.de.frog

Intensifying fast now. 104kt flight level winds reported on the eastern side on the latest NOAA recon flight in the storm. It's getting nearer to high end Category 2 now.

Eye clearing out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

star gazer

ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

NHC

It's now Major Hurricane Helene. It's also very big with Tropical Storm force winds out to 555km.

monster1

Category 4 now.

eskimocat

Latest pressure reading from the eye of the hurricane has dropped from 947.0 to 943.6...so it's still intensifying. Potential to reach Cat 5 also being discussed.