Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123422923#Comment_123422923

Agree but not just that .

Other countries , Europe Canada are increasingly.. well in the last decade anyway since ruse of MAGA , more stable places to do business .Companies are incentivised not just financially but with better access to worldwide markets .

Higher levels of education also figure especially with Tech and Pharma.And a bigger pool of those well qualified and experienced workers from all over Europe and Asia who find it easier than migrating to US .

Also because of stronger employee legislation many of the workers in US industries located here eschew unionization which does indeed help create a more pleasant environment for those companies .

aloyisious

Mattel's CEO, Ynon Kreiz, has stated that the Co will be increasing the cost of its toys, apparently in response to the tariffs imposed by Trump on imports into the US. Most of Mattel's production lines are in China and Mexico.

To avoid discussion about what Mr Kreiz said, I've taken the liberty of adding a link to his statement [from NBC NY].

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/mattel-ceo-says-toy-manufacturing-wont-come-to-america-but-price-hikes-will/6252655/

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123422921#Comment_123422921

Jobs won't come home by improving rights, since that just increases cost base. In an international marketplace jobs move to the place where it is most adventageous to perform the work and cost is the major element of that.

The choices are to make it cheaper to do business domestically or make it more expensive to do it elsewhere. The latter can be achieved by tariffs or tax treaties.

This though is a bigger question about international tax competition, admittedly something Ireland has done very well out of.

Igotadose

Elsewhere on FB I saw a post that said the containers with Chinese goods and, now, 3-digit tariffs, will start to arrive this week.

Sure enough, there was this post (emphasis mine)

"Yesterday I posted a clip from my friend Barry Barr, the founder of KAVU clothing brand who’s 32yr old business is under serious threat of collapsing because of the new tariffs Today, I received a private message from a friend in California (who asked to remain anonymous) who is shutting down his 20yr old business, that employs over 150 people, because of tariffs.

But it gets worse. When he shipped his last container of goods from China to Long Beach, there were 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. He was willing to absorb that. He has over three dozen dealers around the USA waiting for his goods- dealers whose very existence relies on suppliers like him. For half of them he’s their main supplier. Between when the container shipped, and its arrival in long beach, tariffs went from 10% to 145%. The result? He owes the U.S. government over $150,000 for this shipment. He has cancelled his second container that was due to leave China just days after the 145% tariffs went into place. That would be another $150,000 he’d owe the U.S. government.

To be clear, China does not pay these tariffs. That’s an outright lie. It’s complete b*llshit. And Trump knows it. The American business pays it. Not China. So he has $100,000 worth of goods sitting in Long beach, and another $100,000 of goods sitting in a port in China, both of which he’s already paid for. So what has he done? He’s walked away from his business, and the shipments in both China and long beach, and cancelled all his other orders, several of which he’d already paid the manufacturing deposits.None of his customers will accept a 145% price increase. That would make their purchase price more rhan double the current retail price. And he’s not about to throw good money after bad money absorbing that kind of loss.

So yesterday he laid off all 150 employees, one of which just had twins and needs the job, and closed his doors. He called a meeting, explained what happended, and sent everyone home. He’s abandoned both shipments, and informed his dealers. Some of the dealers will likely also close because these are goods they desperately need, and most of their other suppliers are facing the same problem. That’s several dozen American businesses, with dozens of employees each, and decades of building their business, that will close. In a snap. Just like that. Because Trump doesn’t have the slightest idea how the economy functions. And if he does understandnd, he just doesnt give a f*ck about Americans and American businesses.

My friend? He said he’ll survive. He has some real estate and some savings. He’ll default on the million dollars in loans the conpany has from severall banks. That’s their problem. They can’t touch him personally. What happens to the two containers? When I asked he said “it’s no longer my problem”. This is what half of American voters wanted. They voted for this and they continue to support this. If you still support Trump, let me put this in the planest terms. You’re a f*cking moron of galactic proportions. This is just the beginning.

"

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423030#Comment_123423030

How do you make America a better place to do business when workers there already have bugger all rights? It's the only country in the whole world with no mandatory minimum annual leave allowance.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423000#Comment_123423000

I think this misunderstands the core problem though. Generally speaking it is the older populations that are desperate for industry to return as their kids are all leaving to take up better paid jobs in bigger cities. But if the industry came back those kids wouldn't stick around and work in the factories, they'd still leave cause factory jobs are crap and they can get better and better paid jobs elsewhere.

It is just ridiculous nostalgia for a significantly worse past.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423042#Comment_123423042

Goods underway were typically being charged the tariffs in place on departure so it seems odd he got stung like this.

Of course if they changed the day before departure I could see how it was too late to stop and unload

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423053#Comment_123423053

Well increasing workers rights won't make them more competitive.

The solution may well be the prohibition of international tax competition.

Should countries including the USallow the system to be gamed so that companies pay nearly nothing?

In terms of film production, the Irish credit is generous to say the least.

"A producer company can use film relief as a credit against Corporation Tax (CT). If the relief is more than the tax due, Revenue will pay the difference.

The amount of relief due depends on the production costs of the qualifying film. The credit is 32% of whichever is the lowest of:

eligible expenditure

80% of total qualifying film production costs

or

€125 million

.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423087#Comment_123423087

Individual states have also done similar incentives. North Carolina offered 25% but lowered the cap on how much they'd cover, this resulted in things like Ironman no longer being made there. Illinois and Georgia do similar incentives with no cap.

The reality is the US pride themselves on the free market and offering the incentives ultimately act as a job creators in this case imho.

pad406

I really cannot see the jobs coming back in anything other than a notional amount by some companies. In order for them to do so the tariffs have to stay in place for ever. There's approximately 4.5% unemployment in the US, which most countries and economists accept as being full employment. Does Trump really expect the 95.5% + those that are retired will accept that the 'stuff' they will buy for the rest of eternity is going to be significantly more costly just to appease the, maybe at best, extra 2% that will be employed? It's never going to happen and once the public start to realise this, his whole MAGA 'bring the jobs back' will fall crashing around his ears.

Frank Bullitt

Carney telling Trump that Canada will never be for sale, his childish response "never say never".

Classic example of an intelligent, well versed leader going against Trump.

aloyisious

Carney's response to Trump's suggestion of a remake of USMCA: a slight lip and head movement, no blinking. As of 3 months ago, the then Canadian Govt seemed to be considering a refreshing of it's Commonwealth military defence links, maybe even a CANZUK agreement.

One wonders what Carney's Govt might do where defence structure agreements are considered, given that Trump has Hegseth telling the Pentagon to reduce it's higher general staff rankers by 20% across the branches, pruning the US military as it were. A reduced number of Generals does not look good for the careers of Colonels etc down the promotion chain.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423087#Comment_123423087

So workers shouldn't have rights then? All that matters is the bottom line of wealthy shareholders, everyone else be damned?

I don't have an issue with the Irish government trying to support the film industry. The problem with uncritically regurgitating Trump's stupid policies is that they're manifestly stupid.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423172#Comment_123423172

It doesn't matter to Trump if the jobs get brought back or not. If they don't, he can blame this on the globalists. If they do, he can take all the credit. It's win-win for him, but the important thing is to keep up that appeal to the past.

Whether or not it's even true, overall, it looks like a powerful perception that all those midwest states had their industry gutted in the back half of the 20th century and the promise to bring it all back has been a key rallying cry for Trump to conservative Americans throughout his political career.

Capt'n Midnight

Meanwhile they are decimating the general staff. Hegseth orders 20% cut in number of top Pentagon officers

20% reduction in the number of four-star generals and admirals, … 10% cut in general and flag officers and a 20% reduction in general officers in the National Guard. … The Pentagon was also directed to slash its civilian workforce by at least 5% and impose a hiring freeze as part of the administration's federal workforce overhaul.

It's like a Stalinist purge. Wonder where they got the idea ?

Wonder who they'll pick , and what that tells us about those doing the choosing. ( DEI has been mentioned )

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123422977#Comment_123422977

I could see Carney telling Vance to get fcuked, I'm talking to the organ grinder, not the monkey. Trump would actually love that.

They don't have an existential war to hold over his head like they did Zelensky.

pad406

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423297#Comment_123423297

I get that and I agree with it. But, the vast, vast majority of those people had no idea that their 'stuff' was going to vastly increase in price in order for that to, maybe, happen. And when it doesn't happen, those that were hoping to get these new re-shored jobs are also going to be paying the price but without the promised jobs that would, at least, go somewhat towards funding it.

Every American is going to lose. For some it won't have a significant impact, for some they will, reluctantly, buy less 'stuff', but for others they will be priced out of 'stuff' altogether. And that's what will matter to Trump, because then they will start to see that their new Emperor has in fact no clothes at all, and boy oh boy, that is not going to be a pretty sight.

RickBlaine

Trump just does stuff because in his mind it sounds good - "Reopen Alcatraz", "Tariff China", "Tariff Foreign Movies". But he hasn't a clue how the real world works and what it would take to implement those policies (and I'm being very generous with calling them actual policies).

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123421163#Comment_123421163

"That," replied Hardin, "is the interesting thing. The analysis was the most difficult of the three by all odds. When Holk, after two days of steady work, succeeded in eliminating meaningless statements, vague gibberish, useless qualifications – in short, all the goo and dribble – he found he had nothing left. Everything cancelled out."

Near the end of Part II The Encyclopedists in Azimov's Foundation (1951)

If MAGA need a new anthem they could do worse than The Boxer - Simon & Garfunkel. Fooling themselves that Trump will redistribute resources in their favour.

I am just a poor boy.
Though my story's seldom told,
I have squandered my resistance
For a pocketful of mumbles,
Such are promises
All lies and jest
Still, a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423294#Comment_123423294

That's not what I said. I never said workers shouldn't have rights. I said giving workers more rights won't reduce the cost base.

When you say you have no problem with the Irish government supporting the film industry, what you actually mean is you have no issue with them subsidising wealthy producers so that they can ship out even larger profits. That's the net effect of these policies.

This beggar thy neighbour attitude to film taxation has led to a race to the bottom where producers can play locations off each other for favourable tax treatment. What Trump is doing is probably the wrong way to go about fixing it, but what I am saying is that they have a legitimate grievance.

scottser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423053#Comment_123423053

Now now, under-14s have 'the right' to work over thirty hours, including night shifts, during the school week. Be grand.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423387#Comment_123423387

Surely if his base were to decide that the emperor has no clothes, they would have done it by now. He promised a land of milk and honey with respect to the U.S. economy and now he's telling Americans that the cost of things is about to go up. He's telling his supporters and the world at large that the good aspects of the US economy are his doing and the bad bits are Biden's doing. If his supporters will accept all of this, you might as well consider them impervious to logic and reason. The penny will never drop in that way.

I don't think that it's what Trump says which is the essence of his appeal. If that were so, it would have been well and truly stamped out by contrary realities. I think the essence of his appeal lies in what he represents. He's a wrecking ball, a big lump of stinky cheese that makes the establishment hold their nose, he has no scruples in attaining power, he's vengeful, he's crass, bellicose , tacky and tasteless. He's the dark side of America summed up in one man, basically. He's like the political version of Captain Pollution from Captain Planet.

His opponents are still trying to defeat him with the rhetorical weapons that would have taken down a traditional politician in the 20th century and very early 21st, i.e. exposing his lies, even though his lies are so brazenly transparent they don't even need exposing. There has to be a serious evolution in thought to really get to the root of what drives MAGA in the first place and only then will they defeat Trump and/or Trumpism.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423297#Comment_123423297

To succeed in pulling the wool over the voters eyes, he'll have to have the complicity of the State Govt Admin in his fraudulent manipulation of the jobs V jobless figures, even with the number of the faithful who'll believe him cos he's not a Democrat.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423453#Comment_123423453

Trump has never sought to really pull the wool over anyone's eyes because he's never really needed to. His endless stream of nonsense has helped along the breakdown of public consensus in America to the point where a semi-anonymous Twitter account putting out half-baked conspiracy theories is taken to be as good as a major newspaper with actual journalistic accountability.

That's post-truth and once you have that, deception isn't really needed, as deception implies true/false, but post-truth destroys this concept.

Besides, given his antics at the 2020 election, we can be fairly sure that Trump won't be relying on the employment stats to get a successor (or even himself, depending) elected. Free and fair elections are anathema to the authoritarian.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423419#Comment_123423419

They don't. Their film industry is the largest in the world. They're just lobbying for more unfair advantages.

aloyisious

On the US military front, The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed President Donald Trump to implement his ban on transgender people serving in the military. The justices granted an emergency request from the Trump administration to lift a nationwide injunction blocking the policy while litigation continues. The court's brief order noted that the three liberal justices dissented. So the "kick them out" rule applies while the court has not come to a final decision on the trial issue of whether it's ok for transgender persons to serve in the US military has reached a conclusion. Like "Oh, it's ok, we [the SCOTUS] will order the Govt to admit you re-enter the military to serve your country".

Something tells me Trump has a different opinion to that of SCOTUS where the kneeling to it's judgements is concerned.

pad406

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423447#Comment_123423447

I don't believe they've had enough time to see that yet. I think it'll only be when it starts to hit their pocket, and not just a short term hit, but a long protracted hit. When you say things will be worse before they get better, there has to be the light at the end of the tunnel.

"It's the economy stupid" was one of the key messages during the election. Despite the fact that the Biden administration handled the worldwide inflationary crisis better than pretty much everybody else, despite the fact that the US economy recovered faster than everywhere else, people had to spend more to get the same.

The majority of Americans, esp the Maga crowd, are very insular. In 1994 only about 10% of US citizens had a passport, it's now more like 45%, still way below the average and probably substantially less for the MAGAs. I'd also wager that a lot of that increase is due to the fact that 100% of the legal immigrants in the 30 years have a passport. So comparing the US handling of the inflation to anyone else didn't even enter their heads.

When their pockets are hit, when FEMA can't respond adequately to the next disaster, when they try and sort their social security issues or their veterans whatever, that's when it will start to hit home I believe and not a minute before.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423528#Comment_123423528

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

It's less than four weeks away. We'll find out what essentials China makes after the shops are emptied.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123423528#Comment_123423528

If they're really feeling untenable economic pain, they will lash out, but it'll be at anyone but Trump. You name it - Nancy Pelosi, Biden, George Soros, soy milk, Rachel Maddow. No end of red herrings and ridiculous, improbable bogeymen. If Trump can get away with stating that the good parts of the US economy are his doing, and the bad parts are Biden's doing - get away with this to his followers, I mean - he'll never be held accountable by MAGA.

They've followed him through "grab 'em by the pussy'. They've followed him through his remarks on Charlottesville. They followed him through his handling of Covid. They followed him through his attempt to overturn US democracy. They followed him through his being held liable for sexual assault. They followed him through his criminal conviction. Excuse me if this makes me cynical enough to believe they will follow him as he throws the US economy down the toilet (again).

Frank Bullitt

He was also spouting the same nonsense that America "subsidizes" Canada to the tun of 200 Billion.

Again, this is all in exchange for goods and products. He is either really stupid, or just trying to spin this for his base, who might be dumb enough to believe him.