Crunch Time for EU with EVS and EU Green Deal

Ev fan

The EU has serious decisions to make on the EU Green Deal. EV adoption at best is about 15% of the market. The plan calls I think for 22% of the market in EV in 2024 and rapidly rising thereafter. Manufacturers aren't selling enough at current prices with the constraints that EU made batteries apparently cost 15k, and above the 78% mix Manufacturers are fined eur 15k for every additional ICE car produced?? Then of course you have Chinese companies now focusing on selling in Europe given their own market is maturing and getting highly competitive. The easy option would be to roll back on the Green Plan commitments. I sincerely hope that for the sake of the environment and the lead that the EU has taken up to now that some other solutions are found and pdq.

MrMusician18

I think a roll back on the green deal targets is far more likely than allowing Chinese car makers to make up the difference. The commission have said that what happened to solar in Europe will not be allowed to happen to car manufacturing - which was that it was better to allow cheap Chinese panels to flood the market and meet environmental targets vs protecting European manufacturing and jobs.

I think what we will see are the Chinese tariffed out of Europe at least until domestic manufacturers have caught up on price.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052679#Comment_122052679

You can't just put a new or higher tariff on Chinese cars. That would be against the GATT treaty that Ireland (and many other countries) have signed up to. The only tariffs you can put on are import duty (@10%) and VAT, and these already apply to all cars coming in from China

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052746#Comment_122052746

I think they can if they find that the reason they are cheaper is because of state subsidy or dumping. There's currently a 48.0% anti dumping tariff on Chinese bicycles I think for that reason.

Probably a reasonable case for anti dumping tariff since domestic demand in China has slowed generally.

That said, my "expertise" in international trade has lapsed since brexit is out of the headlines so I'm open to correction.

Notch000

which manufacturer will be first to have the balls and announce there pulling out of the European markets.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052793#Comment_122052793

And make all cars more expensive for everyone? There would be severe repercussions for any politician implementing that. You can do it the other way around though, like the USA have done. Subsidise cars made in the EU. No benefit of that for Ireland though.

shimadzu

No point penalizing the end user, the EU need to put pressure on car manufactures to create cars that target mainstream rather than the upper end of the market. Cars sold above 35K should have a luxury tax applied to encourage a greater focus on affordable transport. Adding tariffs to Chinese EVs will have a negative effect on EU environmental goals.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052900#Comment_122052900

The other big issue is that European manufacturers make a good bit of their income (up to 50% for VW?) from sales directly in China so this might limit options. EU wide subsidy might be a practical option like the US.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052798#Comment_122052798

Mitsubishi ~5 years ago. And they're coming back.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052900#Comment_122052900

The USA actually does both. It applies 27.5% tariff to Chinese EVs while offering tax credits for domestic produced ones.

There are practically no Chinese EVs sold in the USA as a result.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052964#Comment_122052964

The incentive should be on safety whether that is drivers, occupants, pedestrians or the environment. Driving up the cost of safer cars is insane, not sure if it still goes on but manufacturers had to take safety equipment out of Irish cars due to VRT reasons. Utter madness.

munchkin_utd

funny this thread was started.

Theres a report just out from the European Court of Auditors stating that the 2035 ban on ICE may be needed to be rethought and/ or electric car prices need to halve to meet EV adoption targets, but also somehow not rely on chinese imports which would impact on the 3 million auto manufacturing jobs in Europe.

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2024/0423/1445081-electric-cars/

Del2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053123#Comment_122053123

Doesn't happen anymore as the EU now requires all new cars to have a huge amount of standard safety features, which people complain about because they can't turn them off!, so all Irish cars are safe. Not like the good old days when people got to choose between ABS or CD player and most went with the CD player.

I don't think that the Chinese BEVs are as big a treat as people think, yet. The ports are full of them so they are having the same problem as every other manufacturer, no one wants a BEV. The people who wanted to buy BEVs have them, now they need to convert general public to wanting them and they don't want them. It's not helped by removing the grants and constant price cuts by manufactures.

munchkin_utd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053495#Comment_122053495

indeed, there was a radio article on the other night that Antwerp/ Zeebruge port is chocked with Chinese cars lying about the place, partially lack of demand, partially abusing the car park at the port along with a lack of distributor and sales network that they have nowhere to send the cars to await an end buyer except just leave them at the port taking up space.

This chinese trade rep is even admitting that they are almost literally dumping Evs in Europe because theres only so much domestic demand

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/11/unsold-chinese-evs-are-piling-up-at-european-ports/

masterK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053435#Comment_122053435

Another example of clickbait, the headline states that E-car prices need to half but the actual article states the price of EV batteries need to half

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053654#Comment_122053654

Not even sure why it is saying that. Take a Tesla Model 3, €38.6k on the road. Is there even a comparable (size / spec) petrol / diesel on the market for that sort of money? And the serious savings only start after you've bought it

Even without the few grand subsidy, EVs are already at price parity. Or even beyond it. And prices of batteries are indeed coming further down.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053654#Comment_122053654

GiGivEn the collapse in lithium price, i suspect the battery price has already halved

munchkin_utd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053705#Comment_122053705

youre right, its a shedload of power for the money, but what do you do if you havent the money?

What is needed are more Astra Evs or Mgs with non sportscar power, at lower prices

eagerv

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053705#Comment_122053705

True, you wouldn't get much of a Golf, Civic etc for that price. And the Tesla is loaded with standard equipment. What other car within close price range comes with heat pump, heated/cooled leather(ish)😉 seats, memory electric seats/wheel, power boot, rear seat screen etc etc. And that's before you even look at the performance, economy and total cost of ownership.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053818#Comment_122053818

But that's probably the lowest price possible for a car of that spec and range. The battery is still too much of a proportion of the cost for that to lower much. Smaller cars with a lower range could be produced for (say) 25k here. But the battery cost would still be a higher proportion of the overall. Battery prices have been dropping and have halved in the last seven years. But at $140/kWh, it's still a big percentage of the cost of the car and with the demand for more range is probably increasing as a percentage.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053869#Comment_122053869

Where do you get that figure of $140 / kWh? Pretty sure I read about a deal that Tesla did with BYD for the blade batteries in Berlin at $80 / kWh at pack level and that was a couple of years ago.

Even as an end user, you can buy good quality LiFePO4 cells from an EU supplier for €60 / kWh plus VAT today. And the production of sodium cells is only ramping up, they will be subtantially cheaper than that in a few years time

The price of cells will further go down, but this is irrelevant for the EV uptake imho. The only reason some manufacturers struggle to make a margin on EVs is because their production processes are not all that efficient and because they simply do not yet have the economies of scale that the likes of BYD and Tesla have…

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053957#Comment_122053957

From here. This is the global price, doesn't necessarily mean everyone is paying it. LiFePO4 is cheaper obviously, but not many are using them in EVs.

https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/BNEF-battery-price-drop-chart.png

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053968#Comment_122053968

Ok well those are average prices - the big players pay far less than that. And from last year. This year alone has seen a substantial drop.

All budget cars already have, or should have, LiFePO4 or Sodium-ion batteries. No point comparing the expensive high performance lithium ion battery that goes into a Porsche Taycan, to what goes into a $20k Chinese econobox EV

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052972#Comment_122052972

Not in a few years - they cut their profit target on China again at full year, it is probably closer to 20% now. Remember they own Porsche which is struggling in China.

Jizique

Dying to hear about the economies of scale at Tesla's factories which are probably only running at 50% utilisation - whether Berlin, Austin or Freemont, with China probably still around 75%

Gerrymandering reborn

Given the recent tensions between EU and China, I'm very sure the EU would happily push back the ICE ban date (which looks very likely) than allow Chinese to own the automotive sector in Europe

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053987#Comment_122053987

The average prices still give a very good indication of how battery prices have been dropping. And it's not been huge over the last few years. There was even a rise after covid in 2022.

Not sure I'd trust LFP yet. I know it's a very niche case, but I have one in my golf trolley. Went great for four years and then lost SOH alarmingly fast. Within about four weeks, went from normal to about half its range. Always was charged exactly according to the manufacturer's charging guidance.

unkel

LFP is far from niche. Pretty much all home storage and new grid attached storage is LFP. The number of cycles is several times higher than lithium ion and it can't go on fire. And it obviously is substantially cheaper.

And as always, batteries stand or fall with the way they are implemented. Your golf trolley most likely had a crap BMS / no battery cooling / heating. Same as most eBikes, mobile phones, etc. Likely dead or unusable within a couple of years. You get the picture. In cars this is much better. Even the worst car battery setup ever - the good old Leaf / Fluence - still have about 60-70% of range left after 14 years of zero battery conditioning. LFP literally lasts a lifetime, many times the life of a car.

Ev fan

Maybe the arrival of smaller cheaper EVs might boost things - eC3 - Renault 5 due to launch later this year - Dacia Spring? Renault 4? Kia EV3?? Could the VW ID2/ Cupra equivalent be faster tracked? Is Tesla Model 2 a dead duck?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058348401/crunch-time-for-eu-with-evs-and-eu-green-deal

Maybe start mining for lithium and other necessary minerals in large open cast mines in Europe? With consequent pollution of water and air and so on.

Can't see that being too popular. Didn't RTE do a programme on lithium deposits in the south east a while back?

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122054880#Comment_122054880

Lithium mining in Europe

https://emag.directindustry.com/2022/11/03/lithium-what-are-the-main-mining-projects-in-europe/

Red Silurian

China is subsidising the production of EVs, that's why their market is saturated and why they're looking for external markets to sell… Why don't the EU subsidise Renault, Fiat and VW to do something similar?

Redfox25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122055542#Comment_122055542

Really interesting stuff.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057605#Comment_122057605

Was news to me also.

Ev fan

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/23/tesla-surprises-investors-with-a-tiny-y-a-tiny-3-as-soon-as-this-year/

Excellent article on Tesla smaller EV possibilities

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122061249#Comment_122061249

Headline is a bit misleading though

jackofalltrades

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053957#Comment_122053957

Where are you seeing good quality LiFePO4 cells from an EU supplier for €60 per kWh plus VAT?

User1998

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053705#Comment_122053705

Ireland is a bit of an outliar tho. The only reason we have price parity is because a similar petrol or diesel car has a VRT rate of around 25% to 30%. Whereas the Tesla only has a 7% rate and a €5,000 grant. I’d imagine price parity isn’t as common in other markets. Even other countries are still giving big grants etc to help with price parity.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122064820#Comment_122064820

€3500 grant 😉

User1998

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122064927#Comment_122064927

€5000 VRT grant. The €3500 SEAI grant only proves my point further. There may be price parity in Ireland but that is only because of the state funding EV’s are receiving.

positron

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122056375#Comment_122056375

I think everyone does in one way or another. US and Canada has massive subsidies to VW battery plant, EU does it too I believe. China does more because they can and their total cost is lower (for various reasons).

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065077#Comment_122065077

That's fair but obviously the car manufacturers are crying out for more help. The EU are instead trying to tax the chinese brands out of existence. All policies which will pave the path for continuing with Internal Combustion Engines well into the 2050s

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122064968#Comment_122064968

Yes. All grants should be removed. Force the manufacturers to reduce prices or ending competitive.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065275#Comment_122065275

Problem if that happens is manufacturers will just not produce EVs. And then we are back to how do we transition away from ICE

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065399#Comment_122065399

I’d like to think there’s a genuine market for them for that not to happen.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065484#Comment_122065484

There is, but like everything it has to be at the right price. That's why the Chinese brands are looking like they will do very well in the near future. I don't think it's a coincidence that EV sales are falling as grants are being cut

DrPsychia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065173#Comment_122065173

The EU need to take their finger out of their hoop and intervene and force manufactures to provide longer and more comprehensive EV warranties if they want to convince the public. Volkswagen is a great example, they only offer 2 years general vehicle warranty with their EVs alongside the 8 year battery warranty, drive unit isn't covered outside the general warranty. When comparing their general warranty to Asian brands they are so far behind, the fact they only provide 2 years general warranty does little to inspire confidence in the brands reliability among European consumers. If I buy a 3 year old ID series EV, I have no idea how much a repair could cost if things go wrong such was the drive unit, dealers can name their price as indy mechanics can't fix them. Since EV's are inherently more reliable due to less moving parts, why can't VW or other European brands provide better general warranties like their Asian counterparts, or even Tesla?

Id rather buy a secondhand Kia, Toyota, BYD or a Tesla because their general warranties are longer. Even with Tesla you can extend the basic vehicle warranty by up to 4 years/80k kilometres although it's underwritten by a 3rd party the option is still there.

Then there's the fact that new cars, not alone EV's, are increasingly more difficult or near impossible to repair outside of dealerships because of the lack of access to manufacturer proprietary diagnostic software and repair manuals. Volvo makes it nearly impossible to repair outside of the dealership network because their VIDA software is locked down for 2016+ SPA cars.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065541#Comment_122065541

fair point.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065173#Comment_122065173

Which is perfectly fine and vastly preferable to allowing the Chinese to dump and extinguish yet another EU industry. They used to manufacture solar panels in Germany until China dumped it into oblivion.

While you are having a CO2 panic attack and proseletysing for EV's, the Chinese are full steam ahead with not giving an eco-sh​it and building out 200 GW of new coal fired power stations by the end of the decade. A Norwegian analysis has just concluded that China will not even get close to it's coal emission reduction targets by 2040.

Cheering on EV adoption in the EU is pointless if it's being fueld by increasing CO2 emissions in China. EV adoption in Norway is subsidised by their full-on explotaition and export of fossil fuels, which mostly gets turned into CO2, NOX and other assorted monor gases.

China is assisting Russia in their efforts to exterminate Ukraine. I try to buy non-Chinese wheever possible. I even managed to find a vacuum cleaner that was made in Germany and not China.

Ev fan

I'm sure the Chinese are no choirboys and there is probably a lot of truth in what you say. I would say also that a lot of Chinese want what we have here I.e a reasonable standard of living and lifestyle what you might call middle class. From what I can gather there's probably 500 million Chinese in this category. For balance also the Chinese have made huge progress in solar and wind technologies intheir own country. Also I applaud them on their massive progress in EV cars/ batteries/built charging infrastructure in their country.They are world leaders and the West has an awful lot of catching up to do. So I think the focus should be on what Europe and the US and what they actually do to accelerate progress in decarbonisation. God help us if Trump becomes US president - he doesn't give a flying phuck about the planet- probably would reverse the IRA and bigly start coal burning which will dwarf Chinese efforts.

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122065541#Comment_122065541

I don't think it's as simple as that as European EVs are far cheaper now compared to what they were when the grant was €5k. Some EV prices have been reduced by over €20k and still not selling.