Looking to 2030

Ev fan

I thought it might be interesting to speculate on where we could be in 2030 - so here are some thoughts...........

- 60% of new cars sold worldwide are EVs

- Due to scaling up a tipping point has been passed and EVs are 15% cheaper to buy

- battery prices have reduced to 30dlr per kWh for medium range batteries and 60dlr for long range solid state batteries

- charging hubs are available at 80% of the former petrol stations throughout Ireland

- rapid charging times are now 15mins on average and queueing is generally 5 mins max where it occurs

- battery SOH is on display in the infotainment system and battery temperature is displayed on the drivers binnacle

- EV motor tax is based on basic annual tax plus additional tax on annual mileage @eur X per 1000km travelled. Non or false disclosure subject to automatic fine.

- trends for ICE cars are large range (>100km) PHEVs with small engine range extenders

- home chargers are a common commodity item (eur 300) and street chargers are common place

- Toyota are working on a new Sulphur combustion engine (COMBUSTION IS KING!) with a state of the art scrubbing system which removes 90% (maybe on a good day) of combustion exhaust residues. Exciting research is "ongoing" on semi solid/semi liquid batteries.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058336432/looking-to-2030

EVS 15% cheaper to buy than ICE cars

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058336432/looking-to-2030

Honestly I can see EV continue but a lot of watering down of the current plan to totally get rid of combustion engines.

I don't see the removal of combustion cars and in fact a move towards keeping combustion engines as more sustainable options

Home chargers to get installed I agree

Most houses to have at least one electric car

More rollouts of solar panels and larger installations

Alternatives to electric cars like hydrogen to reduce the massive requirements to make batteries will be required.

mailforkev

Toyota will still be telling people that they’re only two years away from their solid state battery.

Buddy Bubs

Commercial vehicles will still be mainly ICE, maybe hybrid of some sort, with no mass adoption of electric

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777582#Comment_121777582

and probably still selling millions of cars.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777668#Comment_121777668

I think if they can solve sourcing/transport/storage challenges with H2 then it potentially will have a huge role to play in transport- particularly for all heavy vans and lorries converting some of the petrol stations to part H2 stations. EV on its own is I think only a partial solution which is why I suggest 60% conversion. Maybe controversial but I applaud the Chinese for their huge developments of batteries and EVs. In particular they have developed many varieties of small cheap commuter EVs for around large city use. Other solutions will be needed and of course the elephant in the room is the huge oil industry- they will have to diversify at least some of their interests into cleaner energy.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777513#Comment_121777513

Thanks for your detailed comments- just on the Solar- I'm hoping this will continue to expand rapidly over the coming years - not least because the more Solar uptake there is the less pressure will be potentially on the national grid. Solar panel peak outputs continue to rise - nearly 500W now per panel and the conversion efficiency is increasing all the time. It would be great to see more private businesses ( like RSymonsEV) installing Solar along with obviously a lot more homes. Home batteries are apparently getting cheaper too - so even installing batteries on their own can now make good sense in reducing electricity bills.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778999#Comment_121778999

Every public building in Ireland should have solar panel on it, any large scale office/DC etc should not be given planning permission without solar panels

So what if they don't work in the depths of winter, last few days during middle of day my house is off grid and running on solar for a few hours, thats with a small installation so large scale rollout would make a huge difference.

Batteries at this stage are not worth it, I have done the maths, they will never pay for themselves unless they come down a lot more, still a lot of price gouging

zg3409

I don't think hydrogen will ever take off as it's more expensive that petrol and EV. If battery prices drop as planned lorries will go EV if they can manage an 8 hour shift or 4 hours with a 30 minute top up.

I can see sales of new ICE dropping off a cliff. Phev with a decent battery may continue but they will be expensive.

I see charging being big hubs, but far less than existing petrol stations. I see lots of petrol stations closing but with a charging hub in each area. Petrol stations are too small for proper hubs for 30+ cars for 20+ minutes.

On street charging seems to be loss making at present, so I can't see it working without high pricing or supports. Already apartments are struggling to get any charging where they have a demand from drivers for charging every night.

I do see motor tax changing, maybe EVs will be more expensive to tax as they are cheaper to run if you have home charging.

Old diesel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058336432/looking-to-2030

This makes a VERY refreshing change from a lot of 2030 and beyond predictions re EVs.

Nice post

teediddlyeye

I'll say 10 years rather than 2030.

Considering the options change in the last 10 years for EVs. Crappy leafs or expensive teslas only a few years ago.

I reckon over the next 2/3 years EV sales will plateau before taking off again within 5 years. The following 5 years ICE will drop off a cliff and be regarded as scrap by most buyers.

Only a couple of PHEV models remaining.

Hydrogen for trucks/bus.