Jan 2024 New Car Sales - EV market share down!

Casati

Would post this on the EV side of house if I wanted to get abused, but looking at new car sales was surprised that they are up 15% year over year, and despite all the chat and non stop newspaper and YouTube reviews about all the new EV's models, their market share has dropped from 13.44% to 13.06%. I'm not a data queen but my guess is that it's the first year over year stat that has shown a decline in EV sales at a market level. Evil diesel sales have actually grown by more than EV's in absolute numbers.

EV's that haven't dropped in price seeing big sales drops- Ioniq 5 down 69%, EV6 down 36%, i4 down 82%

Also no EV's in the top 20 best selling car models in Ireland - the best selling is the ID4 in 23rd place - despite the 10k+ reduction in price. Golf sales up 278% to put it back into the top 10 - which is a big surprise when the base spec 1.0 starts from 36 grand but likely picking up lots of diesel customers from Ford? Nissan seems to be only selling Jukes - sales up 470%. Some other surprises - Rav4 which is aging nicely saw sales grow by 197% to make it the 3rd best selling car in Ireland.

It's clear that people have plenty of money to buy EV's as many top selling models are 40/50k+ cars so the excuse that EV's are too dear seems to be pretty lame at this stage and folk are really prioritising petrol and diesel powered cars

passenger-cars-by-engine-type.pdf

Buddy Bubs

Tiny percentage drop and a small sample of 1 months sales....prove anything you want with statistics if you pick them right

But EV has stalled, for now. Price drops incoming, when they reach parity with ICE sales will increase. Early adopters have bought, mainstream need to be persuaded.

The 2 you mention the ev6 and Ioniq 5 need drops for sure. 2 very nice cars but VW and Tesla control market price in Ireland now.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058334303/jan-2024-new-car-sales-ev-market-share-down

VW ID price reduction is for the new refresh model that hasn’t landed here yet. So we won’t see the effects of the price reduction this early.

Tesla have had no car deliveries yet. Boats arrived last week and their stock is currently awaiting registration in NVD. Very similar for BYD, although they got a boat in early.

We've had the sea pirate issue which meant boats taking the long route around Africa which in turn delayed the deliveries.

That will all have an impact on deliveries. EV is just a fuel source, people are picking whatever car suits them, whether that be petrol, diesel or electric. Doesn’t have to be a big song and dance about EV sales being down 0.38% for the first month of the year.

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121708857#Comment_121708857

I agree EV’s shouldn’t have such a song and dance made about them, it’s crazy the talk about them when you then see the sales figures.

Not sure the Red Sea only impact EV’s, as all the petrol hybrids and diesels from Asia managed to make it for January sales. The reality is that we have double the number of EV’s models available in Jan this year versus Jan last year, across many price points. Market share dropping is not down to supply, it’s demand based.

ID4/ ID5 pre facelift had massive discounts available at dealer level and lots of cars in stock - check the ID4 thread from Dec. Skoda dealers had 6500 plus 0% finance to play with on Enyaq’ 80’s. Nissan made big cuts to pricing for Jan sales too.

If anything supply was more than a issue for petrol and diesels - big sellers like the Tiguan and Kodiaq are both being replaced and orders closed for many of the old models while we wait for the new model to arrive. Smaller sellers like Leon’s have simply not being available at all in Jan. Lots of small cars like the Fiesta were discontinued too so some brands like Ford lost out massively plus they found their EV’s not selling

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058334303/jan-2024-new-car-sales-ev-market-share-down

Thanks, very interesting, obviously there's a group of ev fanatics that railroad threads,ev time will come but it's moving at a pace that imo a new development could mean the current ev are worthless very quickly, seeing some of that already, it's really a wait and see what happens year if you are looking for value imo, really hoping for a battery breakthrough, the current model doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709103#Comment_121709103

The numbers of BEV sales actually increased in January 2024 compared to January 2023 (4105 V 3674), an increase of 11.7%. Diesel sales also increased in Jan compared to Jan 2023, but only by 9.5%.

It’s spread out normally with people choosing what they need themselves. Market share may be down but it’s swings and roundabouts. February may see it the other way around. Small data pool using one month only.

Flinty997

Seeing we are at the start of the year it would make more sense to look at total sales in 2023 to see trends...

"...Petrol-powered cars had a 33% share of the new-car market last year – up from 30% in 2022 – and diesel’s share dropped from 27% to 22%. ..."

Looking at Jan in isolation is only going to very short term view of what's happening, and if you're surprised by it, perhaps your not well informed of current market conditions. Because there's been specific events that explain the Jan figures.

If you're only interested in diesel reviews then only watch diesel reviews.

https://youtu.be/JfKJNFhj2bY?si=iwIGbMkrWmP63p7u

browne_rob5

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709103#Comment_121709103

Well in Hyundai's case the Tuscon and Kona models are coming from Czech Republic where as the Ioniq 5's are coming from South Korea so Red Sea could be an issue.

I am not sure if the drop in Ioniq 5's fall is due to supply or demand but the big fall is surprising. There was big unmet demand in North America for it so this market may have been prioritized also.

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709516#Comment_121709516

Sorry I disagree, although looking at full year figures is interesting, every large business looks at their numbers on a month by month basis. Imagine if the CEO of Microsoft or Apple said to the market ‘no I’m not taking about January sales, I’ll only take questions on full year numbers’

Interesting that Nobbys review on the A6 saw him get 100k views

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709637#Comment_121709637

Car registrations are not big profit driven corporations. Silly comparison.

SharkMX

Im driving an EV. Its getting harder and harder to charge it without a long wait when i need a charge. And i have home charging. Id hate to be someone who bought an EV and didnt have home charging.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709637#Comment_121709637

I'm not sure Apple looks at Jan figures and see iPhones sales drop 0.5 % after Xmas and think it's a disaster. Or see a rise in the sales of their last iPod and think that market is coming back.

You need context from what else is happening in the market and over time. It's there a price war going on, a new player in the market, a recession, a war, a pandemic. Different tax regime, a different grant etc.

Flinty997

Looking at Nobbys views is not a surprise that an Audi in Ireland gets a lot of interest. A5 also, Skoda and ID7.

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710182#Comment_121710182

His i5 review got 80k view. The eTron got 70k views. Very similar.

LIGHTNING

Man I really hate to see metrics being abused. So many variables and the sample size isn't exactly huge.

ELM327

Its a small sample size, and as someone who works in analytics, a fav saying of mine is that data can be used to show anything.

The raw numbers are up, and thats with zero tesla sales in the month.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710272#Comment_121710272

They are a lot older. The A6 got a lot of interest in a short time. That said I think the majority of views happen when a video is new. I'm not sure if many come in after that.

I like Nobbys reviews. That A6 looks great, and ideal if your doing mega miles in long journeys on a regular basis. Not something I do personally.

Casati

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709614#Comment_121709614

Interesting that Hyundai have sites in Czech but regardless Red Sea issues dont just impact EV's. e.g I'm fairly sure Rav4 are made in Japan and yet they managed to make No.3 sales spot, and of course not all EV's are made in China either. I was in a Hyundai dealer in Oct/ Nov and they said they had Ioniq's in most colours/ trim available for Jan - potentially they had supply issues elsewhere but Ive noticed dealer ads through Jan with brand new cars in stock.

Tesla numbers aren't a feature in Jan 2023 or Jan 2024. Are they not supplying Model Y in Ireland from Berlin this year or is it all from China?

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710154#Comment_121710154

The OP didn't want informed discussion about EVs in this thread. But since you mention it...

But personally I don't see an EV as viable without home charging. Though some make it work without it, most won't.

It sounds like you use (need) public current on a regular basis. How so?

Doodah7

People dismissing January figures is surprising given that it is the busiest month for car sales in the year. It is absolutely indicative of the market. If the trend continues to March, then EV sales will have peaked for now.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711352#Comment_121711352

Pointing out that Jan on its own is misleading without context. Isn't dismissing it.

murphthesmurf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710824#Comment_121710824

I watched an episode of AutoTrader with Rory on YouTube giving his long term test verdict on the Audi E-Tron RS. A nice looking EV I think. He liked it overall. One part that shocked me was the cost of charging it at a rapid charger. Cost him around £60 !! I had no idea it cost that much. I don't know why, but I always had the idea in my head that charging an EV would be way cheaper than filling a car. Another video by Harrys Garage in the i5 mentioned something that hadn't occurred to me too. The amount of loss when charging an EV. He used a meter to measure what had left the socket and compared it to what had gone into the battery. He got around a 10% loss. It's pretty obvious really as any charging etc with electricity results in some loss. So of Rory's £60 charge cost, only ~£54 made it into battery storage to be used.

LIGHTNING

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711679#Comment_121711679

That's cause the price per kW/unit of electricity in Europe has gone from like 10cents to 20cents (closer to 30 in Ireland). Kinda wipes out a lot of the savings.

User1998

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711679#Comment_121711679

Ideally you should only need to do a big public charge like that only few times a year when driving cross country. That amount of charge at home might have only costed £10 or so

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710645#Comment_121710645

Toyota had them in stock.

Hyundai had the cars available in stock.

Berlin Tesla only do LHD. All RHD for Ireland, uk and NZ, Australia etc are China built.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711742#Comment_121711742

Isn't it more that rapid chargers are price gouging in the UK. Especially on the motorway service stations.

LIGHTNING

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712303#Comment_121712303

There is defo a bit of that alright but wholesale unit prices isn't helping either.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711679#Comment_121711679

as others have mentioned its charging at home where you save money, most informed ev drivers charge during cheap windows either night rate or shorter smart meter windows where charging can cost anywhere from 5c - 15c per kw/h, fast chargers are more like 60-70c per kw/h but you are paying for the speed.

Harrys loss was on ac charging (i.e. at home) so less of an issue at the cheap rates, im not sure if DC losses are the same, but in 4 years of EV ownership ive used DC chargers maybe 8-10 times.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121709133#Comment_121709133

you were referenced earlier by one of the people who thanked your post. When you say ev fanatics do you mean people who actually have one and who can impart actual experiences versus the usual clickbait we see?

If your usage pattern doesn't suit current EVs then fair enough but to say the current model doesn't stand up to scrutiny is a bit silly. It may not for you for example but it clearly does for plenty of people.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712303#Comment_121712303

There's definitely an opportunity there for them to make money with the shorter range of EVs meaning they are more likely to require refuelling on a motorway compared to their ICE brethern. But even for ICEs, motorway service stops would be 10-25c per litre more than offline pumps. Apologies if I sound like another fanboy, but the low Tesla SuC prices are a bit of an anomaly among charging providers and without the SuC network I'm not sure we'd have changed.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121711679#Comment_121711679

The other point is Harry has a sizable solar set up.

Also consider how wasteful an ICE engine is with energy.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712355#Comment_121712355

Where did you go in 4 years that you need to use them only 10 times? you drive an etron, ? Real Range between 205 - 405km

City - Cold Weather285 km

Highway - Cold Weather205km

Combined - Cold Weather240 km

City - Mild Weather405 km

Highway - Mild Weather255 km

Combined - Mild Weather320 km

Your experience of actually driving is not great is it? you spend most of your time within 125km of Dublin.

Did you leave when it was sunny? you could go a little further.

Also you can mention my name, rather than leaving to a 50/50 chance.

User1998

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712537#Comment_121712537

I’d imagine most people from Dublin rarely leave Dublin. It would be extremely rare for me to drive more than 100km from Dublin. Maybe 4 times a year at a push. The furthest I’ve driven in the past year was Athlone (125k km), before that I drove to Mayo. I’ve been to Donegal and Galway too in the past year but it wasn’t me driving.

Royale with Cheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121710402#Comment_121710402

I bought a Tesla last month. They have plenty of cars available for purchase more or less immediately, there were a few 241 plate cars waiting to be collected when I picked up mine.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712652#Comment_121712652

I know, but he would be the first to knock a hybrid or a phev, his own words "your posts contain the usual bullsh!t bingo that all the clickbait anti EV journalists and video bloggers go with, scaremongering about queuing for charging and the rest of it when its not an issue for a huge cohort"

if he actually went anywhere, maybe he could understand its not an figment of peoples imagination,

I have done 4.5 trips to Dublin since June 23, I have probably done more inter county that he has gone outside the m50.

I nearly feel embarrassed for him.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712537#Comment_121712537

I'm the same, rarely go much further than about 50k. Longer trips maybe 2-3 times a year.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712752#Comment_121712752

I have to say your name is not one I remember, I can understand that you only do 2 to 3 trips a year, I don't know what your opinion is on other drive trains, but you don't try to put me down every chance you get. cheers.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712537#Comment_121712537

Pity you picked the 50 instead of the 55 to make your point. Try again 👍🏻

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712736#Comment_121712736

you really are a joke 😂 we do 15,000 km a year as I have stated before, more than the average as it goes, stop making stuff up.

we have been up and down to Wexford more times in the last month than you have been to Dublin since June.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712786#Comment_121712786

I will grant you an extra 40 km, so 165 km from Dublin, lol . An expert on EV driving,

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712794#Comment_121712794

spent what 95k to do 15000km? I can see how funny things can be for you. making stuff up? like what? why did you delete about where you live?

you really are a joke 😂 we do 15,000 km a year as I have stated before, more than the average as it goes, anyway if you lived where I did you wouldn’t need to be driving so far ❤️

I said this to flinty I can understand how much he drives a year, you on the other hand have no concept of it.

Embarrassing

Courtown is barely in Wexford, try Rosslare or the hook. lol. too far?

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712825#Comment_121712825

What difference does what I spent make to you ? It’s neither here nor there, if I’d spend 30k I’d still be doing 15k a year. Strange thing for you to be getting hung up on?

as I have already told you I do more than the national average and have been up and down to Wexford multiple times in the last month,

again stop making stuff up.

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712839#Comment_121712839

again what stuff?

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712854#Comment_121712854

Almost everything you post , you won’t find me in Courtown either chief 😂

what’s your issue with the cost of the car, does your spending have to commensurate with how many kms you do a year ?

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121712783#Comment_121712783

How is a comment that doesn't mention you putting you down.

Not everyone drills holes in motorways all week long.

mikeecho

Gov agencies, are buying a lot of EVs, that'll bolster the figures.

From what I've heard, the Garda are buying 2 EVs to replace every ICE.

One to charge, and one to drive.

It's all about the optics

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121713970#Comment_121713970

Really 7,000 EVs...

The Garda fleet currently consists of 3,440 vehicles as of October, including 2,620 cars, 529 vans, 136 motorcycles, 102 4x4s, and 53 others.

Just over half of these (52.6 percent) are made by Hyundai, while Ford is the second-biggest supplier of Garda vehicles with 467 (13.6 percent). Opel (5.3 percent) and BMW (4.9 percent) are also popular marques in the fleet.

Only 2.8 percent of Garda vehicles are electric, while a further 2.9 percent are hybrid electric. Some 5.8 percent are mild hybrid diesel, and 0.4 percent are plug-in hybrid electric. Some 80.5 percent of the fleet run on diesel.

However, the tender documents note that An Garda Síochána is obliged to reduce vehicle emissions, and will increase the number of electric vehicles (EV) in the fleet in the coming years.

It intends to purchase 280 EVs next year, and a further 580 in 2025. The number of EV acquisitions will increase to 880 in 2026 and 1,180 in 2027, according to current plans.

mikeecho

Well they are not going to change them all at the strike of midnight.

Any station that gets an EV as replacement for an ice, well have to get 2EVs.

Garda cars can be on the go for 24hrs

They will need something while one is charging.

Wait and see

Flinty997

I doubt all 3,500 Garda Vehicles are on the move 24/7.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121714309#Comment_121714309

But they need them to be available. At least a lot of them.

Look at a scenario like the riot in Dublin. Just say units from say Port Laoise put on standby. Unit from Limerick put on standby to cover Port Laoise.

You can't be waiting for them all to charge if they are called in can you.

They will need 2 for 1 for sure.

User1998

That’s actually ridiculous, surely they should stick with plug in hybrids if they want to be green, and use EV’s for the local and community garda.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121714995#Comment_121714995

They don't need 7000 vehicles to move 400 people.

That's before you consider that are only changing 15- 33% of the fleet eventually.

If as you say it's 2:1 then it's half those numbers, 7-15% of the fleet will be EV.

Which suggests it's not all the patrol cars as you're trying to imply.

"....A total of 22,789 new electric cars were registered in 2023, an increase on the 15,678 registrations seen in 2022 (+45.4%) and 3,444 in 2019 (+561.7%)..."

If they buy 300 new EVs in 2024 it's not going to have any dramatic effect on stats EV sales or otherwise. They currently have 2.9% of the garda fleet as EVs. So not entirely sure what optics you think it will be changing.

That said this thread was started about a tiny % change in EV sales for Jan, as if it's has some huge significance. So maybe there will similar hype.