How to prevent a crisis at Stormont in the future.

political analyst

If power-sharing at Stormont resumes, how will another collapse of the Assembly be prevented?

Alliance MLA Andrew Muir told the UTV 'View from Stormont' programme: "74% of people in a recent poll had a view that no one party should be able to collapse the Assembly. We agree with that."

(4 minutes and 23 seconds into the video on the page on the following link).

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2024-01-08/will-ni-be-ballot-box-bound-if-executive-not-restored-this-january

If the British government wanted to change the power-sharing structure to enable the main parties other than the DUP to form a government, thus leaving the DUP in opposition, I think that the Irish government would agree to that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058330524/how-to-prevent-a-crisis-at-stormont-in-the-future

The problem with that is that there would be significant pressure from Sinn Fein not to allow that either. The two big parties don't want to be sidelined in any way. If a coalition could be formed now without the DUP, in future, it could be formed without Sinn Fein. As we know, Sinn Fein would make murmurings of a return to violence.

Brussels Sprout

The problem is that this is all set out in the Good Friday agreement and nobody wants to tinker with that.

This kind of problem is common when you have a country/state that went through a bloody tribal war and eventual peace agreement. Bosnia and Lebanon similarly have systems in place that guarantee certain powers or representation to different demographic groupings. The result is a sort of quasi-democracy that nobody really believes in but also the fear of the past forms an impediment to any real reform.

I think the long term hope in Northern Ireland is that the small but growing group of the population who don't identify with either sectarian grouping eventually come to form the majority of the population. Perhaps then they can finally move beyond sectarian politics. Might be waiting for a long time for that though....

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058330524/how-to-prevent-a-crisis-at-stormont-in-the-future

Only one party opposes reform to how Stormont works - the DUP.

All others are either open to discussions on reform or are advocating it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121597250#Comment_121597250

I think it will happen quicker than the long-term.

The coming party is the Alliance Party, clearly the party of the middle. Time for the SDLP, the Greens and PBP to shore up the middle as well.

The problem is that the two sectarian parties - DUP and SF - continue to use the First Minister position to shore up their support. If the GFA was amended, change would come much quicker. To show how outdated the rules are, if Sinn Fein come first and take First Minister, then the DUP will take Deputy First Minister, even if the Alliance are clearly in second place, because the Alliance won't align with either sectarian position.

FrancieBrady

The only party’s who have an issue with the First minister designation are The DUP and the TUV.

All other party’s have served without rancour under the First Minister/Deputy First Minister since the beginning.

The position only caused issue when SF became entitled to take it actually.

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121597250#Comment_121597250

Do those who don't want to tinker with the GFA not want power-sharing at Stormont to resume?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598224#Comment_121598224

The only party's that haven't signed up to the GFA are the DUP and the TUV. Both are currently in favour of not returning to Stormont/power sharing over an issue Stormont cannot fix and has no control over.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598224#Comment_121598224

There are two distinct agendas at play.

The DUP are afraid of being outvoted and want the security and protection of the GFA arrangements. If Stormont doesn't work, that doesn't matter to them so long as they are protected.

SF don't want Stormont to work, to push the agenda of a failed State. Therefore, if they are not bringing it down themselves, they are actively trying to cause problems with the DUP.

Everyone else just wants to get on with stuff.

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598500#Comment_121598500

If everyone else just wants to get on with stuff then why would the DUP think that they would be outvoted? The number of Assembly seats won by the TUV in the election 2 years ago is negligible - and so Jim Allister is just a 'paper tiger'.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598529#Comment_121598529

The only party who actively still block rights considered normal elsewhere and who refuse to properly powershare are the DUP.

They block those rights based on fundamentalist religious beliefs and cultural supremacy beliefs.

It should also be noted they block those rights even though they have been agreed to by a majority of MLA's and via other GFA processes.

While SF do have an open policy of wanting a UI they are simply not comparable. They do not have any policy that blocks the rights of the British identity or otherwise.

political analyst

On the same edition of 'View from Stormont', Deirdre Heenan said that the way political parties work is that most people, if the leader says its time to go back into government, will follow the leader because they'll think the leader has weighed-up information to which they don't have access. That point can be heard 38 minutes and 40 seconds into the audio version of the programme, which is available as part of the UTV podcast, which is available on the following page and, like all other podcasts on the ITV News website, is not geo-blocked.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2022-12-08/utv-on-the-move-the-itv-news-podcast-for-northern-ireland