2024 Election Predictions

Brussels Sprout

2024 is apparently going to be the biggest election year ever with big elections in some of the most populated countries on earth. India, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Indonesia all have major elections this year.

However for this thread I'm interested in people's predictions in countries and regions that crop up more in this forum. So reply to this with your answers to these 10 questions:

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November?
2. Who will ultimately win that election?
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year?
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be?
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June?
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe?
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs?
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year?
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government?
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025?

Brussels Sprout

My own answers:

1. Yes
2. Biden - people keep writing him off and he's in bad shape physically but he just seems to be able to get over the line in big elections and a year of Trump being front and centre is going to remind a lot of independents why they didn't vote for him last time
3. Yes, no question
4. 80-100 seats
5. Sinn Fein
6. Depends on how deluded they are so I will go with yes
7. No, I think Ciaran Cuffe will keep his seat in Dublin
8. Yes (although I'm not super confident about that)
9. After a long post-election process: SF + FF with SF as the larger party
10. I think for #9 to be true then this will have to be a No

Sam Russell

Q1. This will be decided by the USSC.

They will make one of three decisions.

Either they will allow each state to decide whether Trump can stand or not - but that will not go down well as it will be abdicating on a very important democratic and constitutional matter. It will undermine their standing as defenders of US democracy given the an insurrection was attempted and Trump was involved. However, they could just fail to decide - by not taking the case.

A second choice would be to dismiss the individual states legal position to prevent Trump's ability to go on the ballot. Although one might assume that as most of the SC Judges were appointed by Trump's nomination, they might not follow this route.

A third option would be to determine if Trump is found guilty of any action leading to the events of Jan 6th 2020 or trying to illegally alter the result, and that if true, then he is disbarred from standing. This will lead to Biden declaring that if Trump is off the ballot, then so is he. That leaves both Dems and Reps looking for a candidate.

The third option is best for USA democracy, but that means nothing in todays divided US politics. Of course, this could be achieved by Biden granting Trump a pardon as long as he does not stand for the presidency - in which case, neither will he. [Not likely].

Furze99

Q9 General/ local / EU elections - any half decent independents running on a platform to moderate and control the new rising population on non nationals will do very well. There's a real sense that the various parties here are detached from the public. I'd expect we'll see a lot of these on the ballot papers, even former party members who see how the land lies.

Nody

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November? - Yes (but Trump may not be able to stand in every state as I think the courts may push for state over federate in position as a way to dodge responsibility; would be interesting if then the Reps would do the same to Biden on the basis of the investigation)
2. Who will ultimately win that election? - Biden
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year? - Yes
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be? - 30 seats +/- 5
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June? - SF
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe? - Yes and both voted in by the loonies who think it's all USA's fault anyway
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs? - No, at least 1 left
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year? - Only if the Ukraine war ends; if not 2025
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government? FF/FG + independents
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025? - If no election, yes (I expect he'll leave after the election due to results rather than before)

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121556836#Comment_121556836

Good luck finding anyone running on that platform who isn't also an absolute and utter loon about something else.

It'll be people like Dogkicker, Litler (not the darts player!) and Matzi claiming that that's what they're running as.

TheBigEvil

1] Yes

2] Trump by a landside

3] Yes

4] 10 seats

5] Sinn Fein

6] No

7] No

8] Yes

9 ] Sinn Fein / Fianna Fail / Independents

10] No

Podge_irl

1. Yes
2. Biden
3. Yes
4. 120 seats
5. SF
6. Would lean towards yes
7. No
8. Don't think so
9. FF/FG + Ind, but I'm not remotely confident of this
10. He'll go after election, whenever that is

breatheme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058329085/2024-election-predictions

1. No, I reckon it'll be Biden vs. a Sane Republican®
2. Sane Republican®
3. Yes
4. Not as big as people expect, they will have to form a coalition government.
5. No idea, but I gravitate towards SF
6. I guess at least one of them will
7. No
8. Probably not
9. -
10. Probably.

Beta Ray Bill

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November? It will be Trump v Biden, there are no other meaningful candidates. Trump has has court rulings made against him in some states, but that won't matter as they are all blue states
2. Who will ultimately win that election? Trump, not because he's good but because Biden isn't good
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year? I think Yes
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be? Marginal
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June? Sinn Fein without a doubt, keep an eye out for Aontu and Farmers Alliance too and other RW parties
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe? They will but will be a joke if elected
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs? Unknown, Certainly will be fairly wiped out in next General Election
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year? Yes, FF have indicated 2024 is the year for an election
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government? SF/FF or possibly SF and some RW parties that might get elected.
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025? I think so, I've met the man, I'm not a FF supporter but I get the sense that he's doing his best. Who else could lead FF? Leo on the other hand is dead in the water.

scheister

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November? yes unless Trumps get barred nationally and i cant see this happening
2. Who will ultimately win that election? Think Trump will get it as Biden will focus on dont vote Trump rather then why vote me
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year? Yes
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be? about 55% of the seats
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June? SF will be largest assuming they are smart with who they run
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe? Yes they will if they run
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs? They will keep 1 seat
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year? Depends on LE/EE24 if the FF/FG do badly they will hold off to steady the ship
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government? I think SF/FF with others
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025? If FF are in opposition yes. If they go back into government no

For Forks Sake

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November? Yes (unless one of them dies/gets imprisoned in the meantime)
2. Who will ultimately win that election? Biden
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year? Yes
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be? 200+
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June? SF (as they're coming off such a low base from the 2019 mess)
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe? No. Pair of cowards won't want to face public scrutiny of their shennanigans
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs? No, probably keep one (probably Cuffe)
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year? Highly unlikely
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government? SF/FF and a load of other cats that will require constant herding. Won't last a full term.
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025? Depends on if there has been a GE between now and then

knocknahuan

Yes. Here in Ireland, 2024 will be the moment of truth for the major parties, Sinn Féin, Finna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party.

While there will be many issues raised during the various election campaigns - Local, European and possibly a General Election and the two referenda one of the main ones will be how FF and FG convince the voters they are different from each other. For what it is worth, in this writer's humble opinion, there is absolutely no difference between the two. In fact, one could argue that, in many ways, there is little or no difference between any of the parties currently in Dáil Éireann in the context of economics and fiscal policies. The one issue which binds the parties together is survival. If we take a look at the configuration of the current Government, FF/FG/Greens, there is no chance, never was, of they not sticking together. This is particularly the case with the Green Party. At this remove, it looks like the Green Party will not have good elections on the 7th of June. In order to stay in Government, they have had to compromise on too many of their policies. In their favour, the Greens have contributed to a stable Government. However, it is doubtful if the electorate will appreciate this policy. The big question at the moment is, how will Sinn Féin do in the forthcoming elections. The opinion polls have the party at around 30%. However, this would not be sufficient to form a Government. The one party from the current Government likely to do a deal with SF is Fianna Fáil. Micheál Martin would not do a deal with SF the last time. However, he has relented on this approach, and if the numbers stack up after the next General Election we could have a historic Government made up of FF and SF.

Such a scenario could spell the end of Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan's political careers as leaders of their respective parties.

knocknahuan

Reply to Brussels Sprouts:

1 Micheál Martin will lead FF into the next elections in June, and depending on the results - if FF do badly - he could move onto pastures new in Europe

2. Mick Wallace and Claire Daly to lose their Euro seat 3. Trump to make it back to the White House; 4. 4. 4. Labour to win an overall majority in the UK; 5. Irish GE to take place in 2025. 6. Greens to lose all Irish European seats.

spaceHopper

1) Yes, unless Trump is legally blocked from running and then all hell will break lose.

2) Trump, it's his election to lose 

3) No, they will need the lib dems

4) No

5) Don't know

6) W No, D Yes

7) No

8) Yes November 

9) SF/FF

10) Yes

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058329085/2024-election-predictions

Good thread imo.

My notions:

1) Yes

2) Trump

3) No, but will get in with a coalition, SNP or lib dems.

4) see 3

5) Probably SF

6) Probably, although they should be forced not to by better candidates!

7) hopefully!

8) No, I think the government is likely to run to term as there is an awareness in the political scene and the general populous that there is no credible alternative that can easily form a government  

9) Most likely: SF/FF What i hope for and could happen: FF/FG/+Others

10) Yes, unless there's a very early GE called and they arent in government.

Kigerajoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121556618#Comment_121556618

I agree SF/FF coalition. Once the greens are wiped out it will be ok as they are fanatics

blackwhite

1. When the dust settles will it be Trump vs Biden in the US Presidential Election in November? If both are still alive come November, then they'll be on the ballot.
2. Who will ultimately win that election? Trump - Biden's age seems to be held against him in the US in a way that Trump's isn't. The usual pattern in the US that Trump doesn't appear to have any standards, so nobody judges him against any standards. Unfortunately, I think Biden will struggle to energise his support and get out the vote as well as he did in 2020, and that could be the difference.
3. Will Labour win an overall majority in the UK election later this year? Yes - but don't put it past the Conservatives to try and hold out to January 2025 to stay in office for as long as possible. They know they aren't winning this one so they'll try to stay to the last day possible to get as much through as possible.
4. If so then how big will their seat majority be? 50-60 seats. SNP and LibDems will stop them getting a bigger majority, and could see the various BRexit/UKIP types gelling behind the Tories as they continue to distance themselves from the old "One Nation" type conservatives.
5. Which Irish party will be the largest after the local elections in June? SF, but not by much. Locals elections still have a lot of personal loyalty to individuals that will keep FF/FG seats on councils where they have long-standing local reps. Expect to see similar to the current Dail seat mix between SF/FF/FG
6. Will Mick Wallace and Clare Daly run for re-election in Europe? Wallace announced pre-Christmas that he was standing (https://www.thejournal.ie/all-you-need-to-know-so-far-about-the-european-elections-6255197-Jan2024/), and I thought I'd heard similar about Daly but can't find anything online to confirm.
7. Will the Green Party lose all of their MEPs? You'd expect Cuffe to be the only one with a chance to hold on.
8. Will the next Irish General Election be held this year? Late October or November following the budget seems most likely - but that could change if there were unexpected results in the European or Local Elections (or indeed a major scandal destabilising the Govt)
9. If so then what will be the makeup of the next government?
10. Will Micheal Martin still be leader of FF on 1 Jan 2025?

9&10 are linked. If MM is still in charge of FF then I could see a continuation of the current coalition - possibly with one of Labour or SDs either joining or replacing the Greens. If MM is ousted before an election, then there's a cohort within FF who would be more disposed to linking up with SF than continuing with FG.