Winning horse syndrome and Irish Politics.

realitykeeper

The Irish like to celebrate. No doubt about it. But does this desire for levity influence the way we vote? In referendums and elections we take a position, sometimes arguments become heated but in the end we vote, the winners take all.

Obviously we prefer when the people or the cause we vote for win. But in elections/referendums, does this desire to back the winner influence how some people vote?

Does the desire to celebrate become more important than what is being voted on? I am convinced just from my observations that a huge cohort vote for who they think will be the "winning horse". It wouldn't surprise me if 20% of people voted that way.

I don't mean they actually bet on the outcome (although no doubt some probably do,) I mean they just vote to celebrate.

Is this a possibility?

Augme

It's very common with political parties as well. Look at gay marriage and abortion. FG/FF were staunchly against both until they realised that would put them on the losing side.

HalloweenJack

I'd be surprised if people vote on referenda in order to be a winner. A lot of people felt quite strongly one way or the other about the recent ones and principles tend to override aby desire to win.

As Augme pointed out, some parties certainly choose a position in order to be seen as being on the right side of history. However, I just don't see it making much sense from a voter's point of view, unless they aren't bothered at all about the result.

Brussels Sprout

I don't believe there is any evidence to point to the fact that voters switch to the side or party most likely to win. I think that sort of thing would make sense if it was a public vote such as the upcoming Iowa Caucus where everyone can see who you voted for. In an anonymous vote though it makes no sense.

What definitely does happen though is that floating voters can have their minds changed by their friends and family. For a binary issue like a referendum this is more likely to happen with the "winning" side - that's just basic probability.

Another phenomena that apparently happens is that some voters will actually lie about who they voted for in order to say that they voted for a winner.

Lastly, outside of people involved in campaign teams or for very emotive and personal issues such as the Marriage and Abortion referenda celebrating election/referenda results isn't really a thing in this country. Most people cast their vote, look out for the results and get on with their lives. This isn't the Champion's League final. It's not even the Eurovision.

breezy1985

A nice way to discredit people who vote for main stream parties and discredit referenda.

"The reason people don't vote for the fringe nutters I believe in is that they are all sheep"

MrMusician18

Backing the winner is a known phenomenon in elections, it's also known as momentum.

I doubt that it has a profound effect on turning opinions but I can see how it would sway soft voters or undecideds.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058326620/winning-horse-syndrome-and-irish-politics

How would you explain the multiple referendums that have been extremely tight, then? Some of which have had a 'winning horse' in the public eye beforehand

Seanad abolition, Divorce II, Lisbon I, Oireachtas enquiries, Nice I, 2002 X Case, FPTP I all being within a 45-55/55-45 band.

This isn't a thing. If you find a few people who vote that way, it might be 0.2%, not 20%

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487113#Comment_121487113

Agreed, but most political parties are trending towards more liberal policies on such issues and are generally consistent. Some continue to speak out of both sides of their mouth though.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40245716.html

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121489940#Comment_121489940

I wouldn't describe political parties as necessarily being consistent on it. As shown with Leo and FG they will do the bare minimum on it because it would kill their vote otherwise. Hence the reason they refused to implement the recommendations of the review carried out on existing abortion referendum.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121489240#Comment_121489240

If the polls do not indicate a clear winner before the referendum, and if there is no last minute, media led coup d`etat, then folks who are swayed by momentum and who want to back a winner are less likely to vote, and if they do, half of them might be mistaken about who they think will win. But of course there are plenty of referendums and elections where the outcome is far more predictable and where the momentum is clear. In those cases, I think my 20% estimate is conservative.

realitykeeper

This winning horse syndrome applies to ordinary voters only. Of course politicians and political parties will gravitate to the popular opinion (which is easily molded to the media`s whims) but the politicians are in it for the money. What I am talking about is the infantile adult who gets over excited about silly things and is not a serious thinker.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121494212#Comment_121494212

In the actual reality we live in and not whatever alternative one you keep to, its going to be vastly, vastly closer to 0.2 than 20%

20% is functionally impossible with the results we get here.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121494635#Comment_121494635

That is exactly the sort of thing one of the 20% would say.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495492#Comment_121495492

Having voted for many, many losers in both referendums and elections; I think this shows the absolute failure of your hypothesis

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121494245#Comment_121494245

I can think of easier ways to make TD money than to have a job that requires you to take dog's abuse and receive threats from various malcontents and weirdos every day online and in many female politician's cases, in person.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495563#Comment_121495563

Or you could simply be bad at picking your winner.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495605#Comment_121495605

So can I but politicians are not as bright as the two of us.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495716#Comment_121495716

No, I'm absolutely certain it's because your hypothesis is nonsensical

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487113#Comment_121487113

FF yes. FG not so much. The party always had a socially liberal wing and a socially conservative wing, and as such the party typically had people campaigning on both sides of those issues.

Garrett Fitzgerald was staunchly to the 8th Amendment in 1983, yet Michael Noonan was the one who re-introduced the proposal.

Alan Shatter was a long-time advocate of same-sex marriage, or adoption rights for gay couples, and of many of the steps to equality for people in same-sex relationships.

SharkMX

I always find out first what the view of the person im speaking to is and then i agree with them.

Its got me into trouble once or twice when ive said different things to people who know each other but for the most part it keeps the peace.

FG supporter asks me who im voting for - SF.

FF supporter asks me who im voting for - FF

Someone doing an opinion poll asks me who im voting for - SF.

Who am im really voting for - I'll decide later, but it wont be SF is all I know for sure for now.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121495839#Comment_121495839

Not everyone can grasp it first time.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121498928#Comment_121498928

FF/FG/SF all pretty much the same party. In fact SF is becoming more like FG than FG itself. They are all rotten to the core.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509100#Comment_121509100

There's nothing to grasp. It's a nonsensical idea that is disproven instantly by looking at electoral outcomes

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509115#Comment_121509115

I have no idea what your own political persuasion is but you see this kind of lazy generalisation trotted out the whole time by the far-right.

What they actually mean is: "These parties all have similar attitudes when it comes to migration or abortion or Covid lockdowns or gay rights. We are going to extrapolate from those areas to cover all of the many other areas, beyond those and declare that they are basically the same party".

It's illogical and just plain wrong.

Also I recall you talking up Putin's Russia in another thread recently so forgive me if I don't give your appraisals of Irish political parties being "rotten to the core" with much weight. Transparency International has Ireland ranked in the top 10 of countries when it comes to least corruption. Russia? 137th

realitykeeper

And just how transparent do you suppose Transparency is when it is sponsored by countries like Ireland?

As for the three amigos in FF/FG/SF who are joined at the hip and sharing a four legged pants .... all I can say is choose your poison Sir!

The so called far right are the salt of the earth with true values and not besotted with the woke nonsense we hear of nowadays. In fact, these stoic and conservative values our grandparents held are very much like the views President Putin espouses.

But I will speak no more of President Putin as I receive infractions whenever I sing his praises.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121509788#Comment_121509788

I can see you are struggling with this basic concept. You need to mull it over.

Seth Brundle

Mod note: I'm of the view that this is a completely pointless thread but will refrain from using that as an excuse to close it. However, I will gladly close it if it veers off topic at all e.g. in order to promote a particular political perspective.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121510527#Comment_121510527

Its basic yes, because its nonsense.

If this had even the vaguest shred of reality it would be borne out in electoral results. It isn't. It never has been because it doesn't exist.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121513001#Comment_121513001

Of course it exists, just like wishful thinking, fanaticism, fantasy, nepotism, delusion, stupidity, herd mentality, conventional wisdom, Stockholm syndrome the entire spectrum of biases and so on.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517581#Comment_121517581

You posted this thread as a question, asking if your just made up theory existed. You then immediately switched to insisting it existed, despite all the electoral evidence showing it doesn't, and even tried to increase your already made up percentage

You don't even know what it is you're trying to claim exists!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517734#Comment_121517734

Don't waste your time.