Is Christine Legarde right about inflation?

realitykeeper

Christine Legarde reckons inflation could be back down to 2% in two years. She says it could go higher before it goes lower. But, is she right about it returning to 2% in 2 years. I think it will go significantly higher and it will take a lot longer than 2 years to go back down to 2%.

Also, I think 0% or deflation would be better than inflation at any level.

2% is the target, sure, but not a hope it will be back to that in 2 years. I see it holding around 3.5-4% for the next 4 years at least. Lots of stuff to work through that is impacting on it

There's also going to be more increases. I wouldn't expect to see reductions begin until 2025/2026

buried

Sure these lads in the European Central Bank were never wrong before, so there's literally no f**king chance she'll be wrong this time.

SEPT 23 1989

I remember Christine from her loan sharking IMF days

absolute waffler

there is no "crisis" its the cost of living now going forward now

no going back

buried

This wan was on 'The Late Late Show' with good auld Ryan Subsidy too, ami right? Ahh I mean, this troika agent really knows what's going on. How can you not trust

Trustine LeFarce

m2_browning

We are already most of the way there according to CSO

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402194#Comment_121402194

.... and that is the other thing, are the official inflation figures believable? And ultimately, would it really matter if they are or not? I mean if inflation is high, people will know about it and no amount of understating will ease the pain.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402194#Comment_121402194

Go into tesco in the morning and buy 50 everyday items and see if you are most of the way there, according to your own wallet

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402240#Comment_121402240

Who needs facts when you have feelings

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402261#Comment_121402261

Who needs facts when you are trusting Christine Legarde. You may as well trust the local drug dealer to look after your gaff for 20 minutes while you go down the CSO office to commend them on their great work.

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402273#Comment_121402273

CSO has nothing to do with Lagarde

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402283#Comment_121402283

Clap clap. Where did I say she did?

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402294#Comment_121402294

You were responding to a poster who had made a response about CSO stats in fairness...

L1011

She could be wildly wrong and still be significantly more right on this topic than you've ever been.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402240#Comment_121402240

So what % price difference do you see in those 50 items compared to this time last year?

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402457#Comment_121402457

At the very least 65-70 euros plus in the price.

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402475#Comment_121402475

Don’t forget your club card

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402475#Comment_121402475

You're going to have to give it as a %. I've no clue if those 50 items you chose were €20 last year or €400 last year.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402490#Comment_121402490

Well if you are talking about percentage then its definitely 20% - 30% higher than the year before. This is basic items, milk fruit and dairy

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402402#Comment_121402402

Both of them are saying the same thing though aren't they? That inflation is coming down. Yet me and you, or any ordinary joe soap, your an ordinary joe soap, right? We have yet to see it, so in fairness, both of them are talking absolute total nonsense. Doesn't matter if they aren't literally connected to the literal hip when both of them are literally talking nonsense. Unless your shopping bill dropped from this time last year?

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402485#Comment_121402485

I must get a Christine Lagarde 'club card'. Then I'd be away with it.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402512#Comment_121402512

Well just looking at Tesco prices and comparing year on year:

Milk €1.15 down to €1.05

Butter, no change.

Cheese, no change.

Pink lady apple, 55c down to 50c

Sliced pan 99c down to 89c

Bananas €1.55 up to €1.59

Chocolate digestives €1.20 up to €1.30

Coffee €2.75 no change.

I'm not really seeing anything up 30%

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402847#Comment_121402847

Well, you're going to have to itemize the brands you are selecting to the brands I have to buy. I have no clue if those items you are selecting are the ones that I have to select.

Matters nothing anyways because I have been buying the same brands year in, year out for the last decade. So unfortunately I know what I am talking about. But, continue to try to prove me and my wallet wrong, maybe you can do my shopping for me, seeing as how sure you are so correct?

Have at it.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402857#Comment_121402857

That's just all Tesco own brand apart from the butter. That was kerrygold. Let me guess it's only the brands you choose that have all increased 20-30% in the space of 12 months.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402857#Comment_121402857

K, specify the milk brand and the price this time last year versus now. Easy.

joebloggs32

Milk prices are definitely down as the earlier poster said.

Problem with tesco pricing is that the clubcard gimmick means the same product has two different prices so making comparisons at different times of the year can be tricky.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402899#Comment_121402899

Yes that's exactly what I am saying, so how does that configurate with the brands I have to purchase? They've all gone up. Not only that but I'm self employed, I have to mass purchase bulk materials from suppliers, materials that have all increased in price nearly 70-80% from this time last year.

So all this nonsense talk of de-creased inflation is exactly that. Nonsense. But, believe who you want. I have to keep increasing my prices too for my business, which is an essential business.

And guess what happens with that? Increased or de-creased inflation?

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402907#Comment_121402907

Glenisk, Avonmore, Kraft Heinz Company, all dairy/milk products based companies that have increased prices within the last year.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402924#Comment_121402924

What materials are you bringing in? I've noticed a lot of the building materials which shot up over the pandemic, have come down this year. Some raw materials could be up 70-80% but they weren't a large % of the finished products anyway (a hard sell if you're an importer though).

Those raw material values will have gone up worldwide leading to alternates being used instead (which usually takes about 6 months to switch over).

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402976#Comment_121402976

I now have a governmental levy, placed upon construction materials such as dry readymix from reputable quarries who are the ones who have to pay this levy for the gangsters in un-reputable quarries who supplied pyrited laden concrete mix to houses all throughout the state that are now falling down. The quarries that supplied the defective pyrite have folded, so the reputable ones, the ones I have always used, have to pay the price. That levy is at 30%. So there is that.

I also have to mass purchase bulk goods from overseas that since the suez boat debacle have seen these prices literally reach over the 70% mark. That situation happened over two years ago, yet the prices for the materials within those containers have not come down. So there is that too.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058323785/is-christine-legarde-right-about-inflation

Also, I think 0% or deflation would be better than inflation at any level.

Deflation is bad, it stifles growth.

Why replace an item now when it will be cheaper in 6 months.

Why re-do the kitchen now when it will be cheaper in 6 months.

Sales decrease, people lose their jobs.