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Stratosphere watch 2023-24

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    #122
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I saw that post earlier. I am just about done with this winter. No doubt the winter killer will go at some point during spring when it's all too late.



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    #123
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121747041#Comment_121747041

    Ah jaysus. Sums up this winter



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    #124
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,507 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121747319#Comment_121747319

    You're telling me. As far as expectation vs reality ratio goes based on everything said by "experts" throughout this season (I don't call myself such but I am guilty of bringing up the teleconnections), I don't think you will find a more crushing winter than this one which I didn't think I'd be saying after experiencing 2018-19.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #125
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,507 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This (major) SSW event that is set to occur in the next 2 days looks to be déjà vu of the mid-January event just barely achieving the criteria for such and will be dependent on if the 24-hour period has a mean easterly (<0 m/s) at 10hPa 60N.

    So two near failure major SSW events in one season. Not sure what has happened with the modelling this year.

    EC46 suggests possibility of a very early final stratospheric warming event by the second week of March which would be over a month ahead of schedule. Effects of that are unknown, dependent on how dynamic it is.

    image.png
    image.png


    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #126
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Another reflective event- deja vu indeed

    I bet the early final warming leads to extensive blocking in mid March when it's all too late. You can't deny Mother nature has a sense of humour! - It reminds me of the great dry spell we had during the first covid lockdown



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