Hypothetical British invasion

dublincc2

This is not a thread based on any current reality, simply out of curiosity.

If for some reason the UK decided to invade the Republic of Ireland with the aim of occupying the 26 counties and reintegrating them back into the Union, how would the DF fare? How would such an invasion likely play out and how long could any war take?

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058316349/hypothetical-british-invasion

Beyond badly, and not long.

JohnFalstaff

How long before NATO and, considering long ties between our countries, US military intervention decided matters?

Alkers

Literally hours I would think...

Aerial and naval elements would be effectively unopposed

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182712#Comment_121182712

...

Why? They have no obligation to us, no treaty, and little strategic interest in us compared to another nuclear power like the UK.

mupper2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182712#Comment_121182712

They have no obligations to us at all.

mupper2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182991#Comment_121182991

Real "we could have invaded NI in the 60's with no repercussion" vibes.

Peregrinus

If we've learned one thing in the past 800 years, it's that in a conventional military confrontation between Ireland and Great Britain, Great Britain will win. Militarily they could take Ireland in a very short time, if political developments didn't intervene to make them pull back.

Whether, having taken it, they could hold Ireland is another matter. It wouldn't be a failure of military capacity that would be the problem; it would be the political, economic, diplomatic, reputational, etc cost of doing so, both domestically and internationally, that would bother them. They weren't militarily defeated in 1922 in their attempt to hold Ireland, but they were defeated. The pressures would be much, much greater this time around.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183683#Comment_121183683

The Irish DF wouldn't stand a chance, and it would be better for them to "do a Ukraine" and give out weapons to the general public for the inevitable guerilla campaign.

The Irish population is completely unarmed, but so as the population in the in 1900, I would imagine the difficulty the British would have in subduing such a sparsely populated country would be just as difficult now as it was a hundred years ago.

I would also imagine that the UK would see sanctions similar to Russia, maybe even a complete cessation of trade with the EU and US. Given the trade deficit and how little faith the UK public have in their politicians, the invasion would be short lived once turnip soup was back on the menu.

artanevilla

Uniforms off, withdraw to civilian areas, protracted guerilla warfare until they decide it's not worth the hassle. Basically what we did 100 years ago. In terms of the defence forces, they'd be pretty much steamrollered. All our military installations could be disabled within minutes without a British boot on the ground.

anonymouscactus

F around and find out, UK! :D Joking aside, on Irish soil, the conflict would last about fifteen minutes and quickly become a David/Goliath insurgency as it has always been.

However, it wouldn't be all one-sided. In addition to the international sanctions etc, if they invaded the Republic, the Irish diaspora in the UK would become a factor too. Enough to cause absolute havoc across the UK. Sufficient havoc, I like to think, that the British would have to leave Ireland to bring the UK back to order.

purplepanda

Historically you could assume the USA would demand an immediate British withdrawal, they wouldn't even need to do this by threatening military action, as financial threats to Britains financial markets were enough to compel the British & French to withdraw their forces from Egypt during the Suez crisis. Eisenhower doing that causing the resignation of PM Eden.

Irish defence forces would just make a token gesture of resistance, as Kuwait did, hoping for military aid to arrive from the USA & / or EU.

Events in NI would make the troubles pale into significance, the rest of Ireland outside the cities & coastal regions would soon follow suit.

Russia used 225K troops to invade a nation of 40million, which was not enough to take the territory. The UK Army is 85K, 35K would be the same ratio, an insurgency would need much more than that amount of soldiers to retain control for the long term, once weapons for the resistance started arriving.

international financial sanctions would compel a British withdrawal, plus political pressure from the British electorate, even if under a totalitarian / non democratic regime. There was no serious support for massively increasing British Army numbers during the War of Independence from British voters & politicians , it was not seriously considered by Lloyd George's government, so the treaty talks started.

Peregrinus

The OP does talk about a "hypothetical British invasion" and it's worth saying that, notwithstanding British military superiority, it's a very remote hypothesis indeed. Leaving aside considerations specific to the British/Irish history relationship, the international community has a very, very strong vested interest in upholding the principle that a large country cannot invade, occupy and annex a neighbouring country just because the neighbouring country is small enough to make that possible. The destabilising effect on global security if that principle is accepted is obvious, and is in nobody's interests.

Border disputes are sometimes resolved by military action, and sometimes the process of decolonisation has involved colonies being invaded and annexed (as when India invaded and annexed Portuguese Goa in 1961). But, honestly, I'm struggling to think of the last time when a sovereign stated was invaded and wholly annexed, and the invader got away with it. The last time it was even tried was when Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990; that ended badly. Germany's annexation of Austria in 1938 is arguably a successful case though, if you take the long view, Germany didn't exactly get away with it; the annexation was forcibly reversed a few years later.

If the UK were to attempt to do this to Ireland, they wouldn't just have to deal with the reaction from countries aligned with or favourably disposed towards Ireland; they'd have to deal with the reaction from pretty much the entire international community.

Dohvolle

We need to ask first "what prompted this attack"?

Normal rules of invasion would see a preparatory air strike on the military installations of the state. The motivation of the attack would determine the level of preparedness of the Defence forces. Then it's a question of how much kit we can get out of the military installations before the inevitable destruction. We tend to keep everything movable by DROPS as it is, stick everything in the back of a 20 foot container, distribute it in anonymous warehouses all over the state, location known only to the local defence units. We may have a small defence force, but we have loads of weapons. Some are recently retired from frontline use, but they'll still ruin your day if you are at the wrong end.

That decides the next stage if any.

After that the invader can trust nobody, either in Ireland, or at home. Lets not forget UK society is full of people from Irish Backgrounds, in all walks of life, political, military and of course law enforcement. Our fifth column is already embedded. Can the UK trust the loyalty of the Irish Guards Regiment tasked with protecting the Royal palaces? What about the many Irishmen who have chosen to serve in the British forces and reached high positions? We look like them, we talk like them, I can pull off a convincing welsh accent if necessary, and most irishmen and women who have grown up drip fed UK soap operas could easily pass for mancunian or eastender.

Every centre of the british establishment in the UK becomes a prime target.

So we can assume then every move on the ground by the invader is well flagged by social media accounts coming from the UK.

It will not be safe for the RN to use our ports because of the risk from attack from the shore. The first RN vessel attempting to retake cork harbour gets sunk at the harbour rock by an anti tank missile fired from shore. Harbour out of use. Same for dublin port, sink a large container ship at the bull light, game over.

They better hope their flying tanker force survives because they'll have no airbase to use here.

So why are they here again?

Meanwhile the Irish American Community has forced a bipartisan bill in the senate to send Military Aid to Ireland. Thousands of former members of the defence forces are relocated to the US to begin training on aircraft and armoured vehicles. These are delivered to our fellow republic of France (who is tired of their aggressive neighbour) for shipment to the port of Foynes, not yet discovered by the invader (who took a wrong turn in Limerick and ended up in Newastlewest). Starting at Shannon airport (defended by Surplus USMC F/A 18s) the reconstituted Irish defence force builds a stronghold west of the Shannon as the French and Dutch Navy Isolate the non EU member from being resupplied through their waters.

British Invaders lose the will to live having reached Westmeath. Scotland & Wales Declare Independence. England broken up into seperate territories of "Dunorf", "That London" and "Dusarf".HS2 extended to link Dover direct to Cardiff and Glasgow.

Tory Party outlawed. Remaining Invasion force relocates to Isle of Man.

timmyntc

Navy and defence forces would be wiped out totally within the first hour.

Missiles would blow all bases and ports to kingdom come.

As far as insurgency goes - where do you get the weapons from? This isnt 1910, surveillance of population and of coast is much easier done with satellites, sonar, drones etc

Unless people start smuggling arms into ireland via submarine, the insurgency doesn't have much hope

Harika

I think https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Battlegroup should come to Ireland's aid, although as mentioned above there won't be much resistance initially as there is no Irish military that could withstand the UK one.

From UK perspective they would stage an invasion like that.

1st cruise missile onto army barracks and any other military infrastructure. (if they are really pissed)

2nd paratroopers to government and communication buildings.

3rd Troops from Northern Ireland to Dublin and Galway via land. Naval landings to Dublin and Rosslare. Platoon size detachments on all ports.

Getting control should be quick, then we would find out that both sides learned in the last 100 years about occupation and resistance.

Harika

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121184014#Comment_121184014

There should be enough small arms here and some Kalashnikovs are easily smuggled to either port. If all the tech would stop weapons, why does it not stop drugs?

Also fertiliser will be there to build bombs with better electronics than decades ago.

Iraq/Afghanistan will be the blueprints.

artanevilla

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121184014#Comment_121184014

There's enough weapons here already. In the event of an invasion you'll find plenty willing to take their grandfathers shotgun down the end of the street to the nearest British guardpost.

Fred Cryton

The British are lucky they have a country next door spending €6bn a year on NGO's, €20bn a year on social welfare, and putting €65bn of budget surpluses into an investment fund.

Imagine the military that could be built up with that kind of money. They should be thankful we are not militaristic like Israel.

freddiek

they'd have plenty of willing collaborators that's for sure

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121184509#Comment_121184509

You fear NGOs, don't you. Do you check under the bed for them before you go to sleep?

Larbre34

A few years ago, a documentary was made, exploring possible outcomes in a hypothetical scenario that Jack Lynch's oft misunderstood line of 'not standing idly by' had actually come to an Irish invasion of the 6 Counties, during the ethnic cleansing and refugee crisis of Catholics and Nationalists in the North in August 1969.

The wargamed scenarios showed the Defence Forces moving into Counties Down and Derry and taking over security installations like RUC Stations and small British Army Barracks in Nationalist heavy towns like Derry and Newry.

Which was all very well, until the F-4 Phantom jets arrived overhead within a few hours of the action beginning, cutting off Irish supply lines, destroying armoured vehicles and covering the UDR and the Paras while they mopped up the remainder.

And while a British invasion of the whole island tomorrow would be a different situation, if anything the gap in capability has widened hugely even since 1969 and so RAF air dominance would be immediate and everything else just a matter of time after that.

dublincc2

If we consider a Donbass/Ukraine scenario playing out in a united Ireland, this of course is completely unrealistic and far-fetched but is probably the only scenario I can envision where an invasion would occur:

A united Ireland is passed through a border poll, a few years later an extremely nationalist government starts implementing restrictions on Protestants and rolling back concessions reached in a reunification settlement, UVF/UDA receive armaments from MI6 and launch a sustained campaign against the Irish state, large towns like Ballymena, Ballymoney, Coleraine, Bangor, Newtownards, Portadown, Larne and Carrickfergus are seized as well as all of east Belfast and enclaves like the Shankill and Sandy Row. Loyalists proclaim allegiance in their controlled territory to the Crown. Terrorist attacks are launched by loyalists into the south killing dozens, unassuming places like Newbridge Killarney or Limerick city are targeted in Omagh-level atrocities leading to mass public support for an ‘anti-terror operation’ in loyalist-held Ulster.

The DF launches an operation to retake the areas and are unprepared for the equipment that the loyalists have received, resort to shelling the predominantly residential areas that loyalists hold. Let’s say the Army picks Portadown as an easy target due to proximity and starts moving against loyalist positions possibly triggering attacks on Catholic civilians on the Garvaghy Road who are threatened with expulsion. In turn Irish positions retreat and shell loyalist estates like Killicomaine killing dozens of civilians, then proceeding to seize Portadown after weeks of urban fighting and hundreds of losses on both sides and dozens of civilians, mostly Protestant.

In Britain a nationalistic government is in power and the PM demands Irish forces stop any further advances into loyalist territory. The Irish government refuses and begins to shell east Belfast from artillery positions on the hills of Belfast (Cavehill/Divis) leading to dozens of civilians killed. The Army also gears up for a full on assault of the Shankill which undoubtedly would be horrific. The PM demands Ireland cease military action towards the loyalists by a set deadline. Ireland refuses.

The PM announces a ‘special military operation to defend the British citizens in Ulster who are facing genocide and persecution by the Dublin regime’ in a speech from Downing Street.

What next? How would the invasion go from here? Bearing in mind this is a united Ireland and the whole island apart from areas of Antrim and Down is under control. How long would it take for the British to get to Dublin City? Would the government surrender after Belfast and Dublin fell and go to guerrilla mode, or would they move the capital to Cork and keep the fight going with the remnants of the DF?

tayto lover

I'd prefer if we could invade Britain but when i think about it we probably have.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185627#Comment_121185627

First to get voted off a celebrity dance contest in the UK.

Irish redhead famous for nobody knows what really who seems to have appeared from nowhere

or

Beloved English comedian and entertainer for the last 4 decades who has never been involved in anything noncey.

Top rated chat show in the UK has been presented by an Irishman for the last 5 decades.

Popular Trade Union boss has Irish Heritage.

We successfully infiltrated all aspects. Even Monty's batman was Irish.

The Assimilation is almost complete. We just need to marry into the royal family now and we'll finally have revenge for Cromwell. Almost did it with Di but they didn't try hard enough. Her gran had a house in Ireland. She was eligible for an Irish Passport...Her own mother even converted to Catholicism...(The Burke Roches from Fermoy).

Esel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185178#Comment_121185178

a hypothetical scenario that Jack Lynch's oft misunderstood line of 'not standing idly by' 

Especially when he never said 'idly'.

Fred Cryton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185178#Comment_121185178

Not sure the F-4's would make much difference, they aren't exactly using precision guided weapons and the Irish army would likely invade mostly on foot given the short distance. The invasion would be stopped by the British army itself.

rock22

One scenario , largely ignored so far, is where the UK has the support of NATO.

In a hypothetical future, where NATO are under attack and they determine that Ireland could be used as a launch pad for an attack on the UK, it is not beyond the bounds of possibilities that NATO would support a UK invasion of Ireland. This is not a millions miles away from the thinking of the allies in WW2.

Neither the US or EU would be coming to our defence. The US, in particular, would set about installing a 'friendly' government in Ireland.

Even a guerrilla war could not last long if arms supply was cut off.

neiphin

They would be here before the phone call arrived