October 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT 14.5 (3.1 above normal) -- after Sunday would estimate 14.9 and it will climb into 15.5 range before falling back later in week

MAX 21.9 but now at least 22.7

MIN not tracked yet

PRC 90% of normal

SUN 74% of normal

Max wind gust _ not tracked yet

pauldry

23.3c in Pheonix Park today

DOCARCH

High of 23.4c at Phoenix Park yesterday according to Met.ie this morning.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 15.0 after nine days and (edit) was 15.2 after ten days.

DOCARCH

Met E reporting (provisional) low of -1.1c at Mount Dillon this morning.

Tae laidir

-1.2 confirmed for Mt. Dillon.

appledrop

Think we have our first gusts, 44 knts yesterday at Cork Airport.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT 13.3 ... second week average 12.0 (1.3 above normal).

MAX 23.4

MIN was -1.2 but -2 reported on 15 Oct (Mtdillon)

PRC at 89% after second week average 87% of normal

SUN 91% of normal after second week average of 107% of normal

Max wind gust _ 44 kt

Tae laidir

-1.9 confirmed for Mt.Dillon.

Tae laidir

Gust of 46 knots reported in Valentia yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Lots of rain in south past two days, will be pushing PRC well above 130 for next report I suspect.

I had a look at the situation for scoring MAX which will require a boost. The regular entrants' high forecasts were 22.5 and 22.6 (several), and sdanseo who hasn't entered this year (was a regular a while ago) had 24.0; actual is going to be 23.4 unless there's an event of epic proportions (cloud will have to break first) ...

So in theory there is no hammer given those results, but in fact there cannot be one unless it's a regular entrant's forecast because the point of minimum progression is to make all monthly scoring close enough to an average that we don't drop one month from all scores. So you can expect to see 20 points for sdanseo, 19 for 22.6 and 18 for 22.5, after that, I will try to reflect a fair distribution given actual errors, so it will be scored like it would be if 22.7 had been the MAX and the drop in scoring levels was larger than usual, other than for the top score.

As for PRC hammer potential, that could easily happen, our top forecasts are 165% (dacogawa) and 160% (JPmarn), I could foresee them with a shared hammer (any outcome 153 to 172 per cent will activate it for at least one and the other will be close enough to a high raw score that it won't bring down the other score; both will have it for an outcome 158 to 167 per cent.) The rest of us will do better if the outcome soars beyond 172% so regular boosts will occur for all scores.

Tae laidir

Malin Head had a gust of 50 knots yesterday.

Tae laidir

That increased to 57 knots yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 12.1 ... third week average 9.6 (0.5 below normal). Will likely end up around 11.4.

MAX 23.4 _ probably set

MIN was -1.9 _ could be set or edge down

PRC at 134% after third week average 223% of normal _ GFS suggests similar trend next ten days, 135% may be close to outcome

SUN 85% of normal after third week average of 73% of normal _ looks quite cloudy, may fall to 80%

Max wind gust _ 57 kt _ no definite signs of a stronger gust but several chances ahead

___________________

FYI, scoring off the estimates at present: will adjust if later data suggests any changes needed ... this will show likely scoring for MAX from minimum progression.

Preliminary scoring for October 2023

FORECASTER _____________ IMT ____MAX ____MIN ____PRC ____SUN ___ Max gust ____ TOTAL

___ Estimates ____________ 11.4 ____23.4 ____-1.9 ____ 135 ___ 080 _____ 58 kt

Gonzo __________________ 12.6 13 _ 20.4 03*_ -1.9 20 _ 121 10 _ 087 08 __ 67 kt 04 ____ 58

Joe Public _______________ 12.4 15 _ 19.9 01*_ -2.9 10 _ 110 07 _ 099 06 __ 75 kt 01 ____ 40

200motels _______________12.2 17 _ 21.3 08*_ -2.1 18 _ 109 06 _ 090 08 __ 71 kt 02 ____ 59

john mac ______ (-1) ______12.1 18 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.8 11 _ 098 03 _ 102 06 __ 61 kt 08 _64-1=63

Pauldry _________________ 12.1 18 _ 22.2 15*_ -1.0 11 _ 125 12 _ 095 07 __ 68 kt 04 ____ 67

Kindred Spirit ____________ 12.1 18 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.6 17 _ 100 03 _ 085 09 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 59

Appledrop _______________ 12.1 18 _ 20.9 04*_ -1.8 19 _ 127 12 _ 110 04 __ 66 kt 05 ____ 62

MrSkinner _______________ 12.0 19 _ 22.5 18*__0.0 01 _ 120 10 _ 100 06 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 63

Dacogawa _____________ 12.0 19 _ 22.3 16*_ -1.4 15 _ 165 05 _ 086 09 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 67

Cornerstonelad ___________12.0 19 _ 22.0 13*__1.0 11 _ 120 10 _ 100 06 __ 69 kt 03 ____ 62

Esposito ________________ 11.6 23 _ 21.8 11*_ -1.5 16 _ 115 08 _ 095 07 __ 63 kt 06 ____ 71

Rameire _______ (-2) _____ 11.5 24 _ 22.6 19*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 02 _ 105 05 __ 72 kt 02 _71-2=69

Bsal ____________________11.5 24 _ 21.9 12*_ -3.0 09 _ 130 13 _ 088 08 __ 65 kt 05 ____ 72

___ Con Sensus __________11.5 24 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.9 20 _ 115 08 _ 095 07 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 75

Tae laidir ________________ 11.5 24 _ 21.8 11*_ -2.3 16 _ 094 01 _ 097 07 __ 50 kt 06 ____ 65

Sunflower3_______________ 11.5 24 _ 21.0 07*_ -2.5 14 _ 115 08 _ 085 09 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 69

MrStonewall ______________11.4 25 _ 20.1 02*_ -2.4 15 _ 073 00 _ 110 04 __ 52 kt 07 ____ 53

waterways _______________11.3 24 _ 21.4 09*_ -4.1 00 _ 095 02 _ 091 08 __ 56 kt 10 ____ 53

M.T. Cranium _____________11.3 24 _ 21.3 08*_ -1.7 18 _ 135 15 _ 095 07 __ 58 kt 10 ____ 82

Artane2002 ______________11.2 23 _ 20.7 05*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 02 _ 090 08 __ 57 kt 10 ____ 67

sdanseo ________________ 11.0 21 _ 24.0 20*_ -1.5 16 _ 121 10 _ 089 08 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 84

Adam240610 ____________ 11.0 21 _ 22.1 14*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 07 _ 110 04 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 71

dasa29 _________________ 11.0 21 _ 20.5 04*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 07 _ 090 08 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 65

sryanbruen ______________ 10.9 20 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.1 18 _ 110 07 _ 095 07 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 79

DOCARCH _______________ 10.8 19 _ 21.5 10*_ -2.1 18 _ 140 13 _ 090 08 __ 62kt 07 ____ 75

Jpmarn _________________ 10.8 19 _ 20.8 06*_ -1.5 16 _ 160 07 _ 085 09 __ 61 kt 08 ____ 65

NormaL _________________ 10.1 12 _ 20.5 04*_ -3.0 09 _ 100 03 _ 100 06 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 43

===============================

* scoring from minimum progression

If PRC is above 135% minimum progression will be needed, and lower scores will likely not be reduced as a result, higher forecast scores will be increased and highest scores now would be closer to 10-12 range.

<<< --- Table will be adjusted as required in next ten days --- >>>

===============================

One unrelated item of business, some of you entered a multi-forum tropical seasonal contest that I host on American Weather Forum, current count for season is 20 7 3 and tae laidir (entry 19 8 4) is currently in second place and would move into first if there are one or two additional storms. The current leader (yotaman) entered at 16 7 3 and cannot improve score.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT 11.5(4) ... fourth week average 9.9 (0.4 above normal). Will still end up around 11.4, guidance suggests 11.3 possible.

MAX 23.4 _ no doubt is set

MIN was -1.9 _ probably set

PRC at 138% after fourth week average 150% of normal _ 122% of normal end of October values already recorded, still expect 135% will be close to outcome, could edge up to 140%

SUN 96% of normal after third week average of 128% of normal _ revising scoring table estimate to 95% (from 80%).

Max wind gust _ 57 kt _ no definite signs of a stronger gust and no obvious chances in two days left.

Following is revised preliminary scoring table (only SUN scores are adjusted) ... (edit, IMT adjusted to 11.3 based on 11.44 after 29 days.

Preliminary scoring for October 2023

FORECASTER _____________ IMT ____MAX ____MIN ____PRC ____SUN ___ Max gust ____ TOTAL

___ Estimates ____________ 11.3 ____23.4 ____-1.9 ____ 135 ___ 095 _____ 58 kt

Gonzo __________________ 12.6 12 _ 20.4 03*_ -1.9 20 _ 121 10 _ 087 08 __ 67 kt 04 ____ 57

Joe Public _______________ 12.4 14 _ 19.9 01*_ -2.9 10 _ 110 07 _ 099 09 __ 75 kt 01 ____ 42

200motels _______________12.2 16 _ 21.3 08*_ -2.1 18 _ 109 06 _ 090 09 __ 71 kt 02 ____ 59

john mac ______ (-1) ______12.1 17 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.8 11 _ 098 03 _ 102 09 __ 61 kt 08 _66-1=65

Pauldry _________________ 12.1 17 _ 22.2 15*_ -1.0 11 _ 125 12 _ 095 10 __ 68 kt 04 ____ 69

Kindred Spirit ____________ 12.1 17 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.6 17 _ 100 03 _ 085 08 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 57

Appledrop _______________ 12.1 17 _ 20.9 04*_ -1.8 19 _ 127 12 _ 110 07 __ 66 kt 05 ____ 64

MrSkinner _______________ 12.0 18 _ 22.5 18*__0.0 01 _ 120 10 _ 100 09 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 65

Dacogawa _____________ 12.0 18 _ 22.3 16*_ -1.4 15 _ 165 05 _ 086 08 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 65

Cornerstonelad ___________12.0 18 _ 22.0 13*__1.0 11 _ 120 10 _ 100 09 __ 69 kt 03 ____ 64

Esposito ________________ 11.6 22 _ 21.8 11*_ -1.5 16 _ 115 08 _ 095 10 __ 63 kt 06 ____ 73

Rameire _______ (-2) _____ 11.5 23 _ 22.6 19*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 02 _ 105 08 __ 72 kt 02 _73-2=71

Bsal ____________________11.5 23 _ 21.9 12*_ -3.0 09 _ 130 13 _ 088 09 __ 65 kt 05 ____ 72

___ Con Sensus __________11.5 23 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.9 20 _ 115 08 _ 095 10 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 77

Tae laidir ________________ 11.5 23 _ 21.8 11*_ -2.3 16 _ 094 01 _ 097 10 __ 50 kt 06 ____ 67

Sunflower3_______________ 11.5 23 _ 21.0 07*_ -2.5 14 _ 115 08 _ 085 08 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 67

MrStonewall ______________11.4 24 _ 20.1 02*_ -2.4 15 _ 073 00 _ 110 07 __ 52 kt 07 ____ 55

waterways _______________11.3 25 _ 21.4 09*_ -4.1 00 _ 095 02 _ 091 09 __ 56 kt 10 ____ 55

M.T. Cranium _____________11.3 25 _ 21.3 08*_ -1.7 18 _ 135 15 _ 095 10 __ 58 kt 10 ____ 86

Artane2002 ______________11.2 24 _ 20.7 05*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 02 _ 090 09 __ 57 kt 10 ____ 69

sdanseo ________________ 11.0 22 _ 24.0 20*_ -1.5 16 _ 121 10 _ 089 09 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 86

Adam240610 ____________ 11.0 22 _ 22.1 14*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 07 _ 110 07 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 75

dasa29 _________________ 11.0 22 _ 20.5 04*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 07 _ 090 09 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 67

sryanbruen ______________ 10.9 21 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.1 18 _ 110 07 _ 095 10 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 83

DOCARCH _______________ 10.8 20 _ 21.5 10*_ -2.1 18 _ 140 13 _ 090 09 __ 62kt 07 ____ 77

Jpmarn _________________ 10.8 20 _ 20.8 06*_ -1.5 16 _ 160 07 _ 085 08 __ 61 kt 08 ____ 65

NormaL _________________ 10.1 13 _ 20.5 04*_ -3.0 09 _ 100 03 _ 100 09 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 47

===============================

* scoring from minimum progression

If PRC is above 135% minimum progression will be needed, and lower scores will likely not be reduced as a result, higher forecast scores will be increased and highest scores now would be a bit lower closer to 13-14 range.

<<< --- Table will be adjusted again for final reported values by 2nd of Nov --- >>>

===============================

Update on tropical season report, no changes to previous report, TD 21 formed near Nicaragua but was not given a name so we wait for November developments. I see one or two possible named storms on future maps.

NOV forecast contest will be posted later today or (in your time zone) overnight ... the annual update will be very interesting as there are a lot of really good scores likely for October, I have not seen quite this high an average score before (almost everybody is above 50).

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring January to October 2023

Now rank-ordered by best 8/10 scoring rather than total scores.

* forecasters who have 9 of 10, ** 8 of 10.

Note: OCT scores preliminary and subject to later adjustments.

Dropped scores for best 8 of 10 are in italics. An equal second lowest score is also in italics for a few scores.

Forecasters at 9/10 entries, one dropped score. At 8/10, no dropped scores.

OCT 8/10 _SEP 7 of 9 //

Rank (prv) best 8/10_FORECASTER J __F __M __A __M __J __J __A __S __O __TOTAL _Rank OCT ((Rank SEP))

(3.2) (1.8)_ 561 _ Con Sensus ___ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _60 _79 _68 _77 __ 679 _ 00.7 (00.7)

_ 01 (01) _ 585 _ Artane2002* __ 50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _68 _90 _72 _69 __ 635 ___ ( 4 ) _ (4)

_ 02 (02) _ 566 _ Sunflower3 ____47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _73 _73 _73 _67 __ 652 ___ ( 2 ) _ (1)

_ 03 (03) _ 563 _ tae laidir ______38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 _70 _78 _67 __ 644 ___ ( 3 ) _ (2)

_ 04 (04) _ 558 _ M.T. Cranium __ 67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _89 _63 _63 _86 __ 656 ___ ( 1 ) _ (3)

_ 05 (05) _ 540 _ sryanbruen ____46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _55 _48 _57 _83 __ 634 ___ ( 5 ) _ (6)

_ 06 (08) _ 520 _ adam240610 __ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _67 _57 _56 _75 __ 633 ___ ( 6 ) _ (5)

_ 07 (07) _ 516 _ Jpmarn*_____ 61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _70 _75 _75 _65 __ 565 ___ (t13)_ (15)

_t08 (06) _ 511 _ Kindred Spirit __58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _37 _55 _53 _57 __ 601 ___ ( 8 ) _ (7)

_t08 (13) _ 511 _ DOCARCH _____77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _45 _55 _57 _77 __ 604 ___ ( 7 ) _(t9)

_ 10 (09) _ 506 _ Appledrop _____53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _56 _52 _60 _64 __ 591 ___ ( 9 ) _ (t9)

_ 11 (12) _ 502 _ john mac* ____ 58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _51 _71 _54 _65 __ 549 ___ (21) _ (22)

_t12 (14) _ 498 _ MrSkinner _____25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _47 _69 _58 _65 __ 557 ___ (19) _ (19)

_t12 (15) _ 498 _ Rameire ______ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _69 _59 _60 _71 __ 560 ___ (t17)_ (21)

_ 14 (t10)_ 497 _ Gonzo ________46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _84 _52 _65 _57 __ 587 ___ (10) _ (8)

_ 15 (t10) _495 _ waterways ____ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _68 _65 _67 _55 __ 563 ___ (15) _ (12)

_ 16 (t16) _491 _ Dacogawa ____ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _51 _55 _66 _65 __ 581 ___ (11)_ (11)

_ 17 (18) _ 489 _ Cornerstonelad_ 49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 _76 _68 _64 __ 563 ___ (t13)_ (16)

_ 18 (20) _ 483 _ Bsal _________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _62 _61 _44 _72 __ 569 ___ (12) _ (17)

_ 19 (19) _ 482 _ 200 motels____ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 _47 _66 _60 __ 561 ___ (t17) _ (14)

(18.1)(12.7)_482 NormaL _____67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _65 _60 _46 _46 __ 562 ___(16.0)_(11.1)

_ 20 (21) _ 472 _ Dasa29 _______ 61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _44 _65 _66 _67 __ 558 ___ (20) _ (20)

_ 21 (22) _ 468 _ Pauldry _______ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _56 _51 _46 _69 __ 562 ___ (16) _ (18)

_ 22 (24) _ 466 _ esposito** _____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _50 _72 _66 _73 __ 466 ___ (24) _ (24)

_ 23 (t16) _ 462 _ Joe Public _____46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _41 _71 _85 _42 __ 545 ___ (22) _ (13)

_ 24 (23) _ 452 _ Mr.stonewall ___ 45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _57 _61 _72 _57 _55 __ 527 ___ (23) _ (23)

================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

_ 25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/10) _____ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __ 234

_ 26 (29) _ sdanseo (2/10) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 59 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 __143

_ 27 (26)_Rebelbrowser(1/10) ___ 78__--- _---_--- _--- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- ___ 78

_ 28 (27) _ JCX BXC (1/10) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 65 _ --- _ --- _--- _--- ___ 65

_ 29 (28) _Aah yes (1/10) ______ --- _--- _---_--- _ 60 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- ___ 60

_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/10) _______ 58 _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- ___ 58

_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/10) ________ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- ___51

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals January -October ____

FORECASTER ___ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible ____250 _200 _200 _150 _100 __100 ____1000

_ Con Sensus ___ 185 _131 _116 _ 92 _ 81 __ 74 ____ 679

M.T. Cranium ____193 _ 77 _124 _100 _ 85 __ 77 ____ 656

Sunflower3 _____186 _117 _117 _ 86 _ 76 __ 70 ____ 652

Tae laidir________207 _ 91 _132 _ 68 _ 76 __70 ____ 644

Artane2002(9/10)_170_113 _133 _84 _ 72 __ 65 ____ 635 (637)

sryanbruen _____ 181 _113 _117 _ 89 _ 75 __ 64 _____635 (639)

adam240610____ 188 _116 _112 _ 81 _ 70 __ 69 ____ 633 (636)

DOCARCH ______ 148 _122 _106 _101 _73__ 54 ____ 604

Kindred Spirit ____167 _110 _116 _ 74 _ 67 __ 67 ____ 601

Appledrop _______187 _ 61 _111 _ 93 _ 83 __ 56 ____ 591

Gonzo __________176 _ 96 _ 88 _ 89 _ 72 __ 68 ____ 587 (589)

Dacogawa ______ 189 _ 92 _ 91 _ 70 __77 __ 62 ____ 581

Bsal ___________ 171 _101 _ 71 _103 _ 68__ 64 ____ 569 (578)

Jpmarn __(9/10)__157 _ 81 _115 _ 85 _ 66 __ 61 ____565

Cornerstonelad ___179 _118 _ 81 _ 79 _ 64 __ 59 ____ 563 (580)

waterways ______ 160 _116 _ 66 _ 79 _ 76 __ 66 ____ 563

Pauldry _________180 _102 _ 66 _ 95 _ 73 __ 46 ____ 562

_ NormaL ______ 125 _112 _89 _ 92 __71 __ 73 ____ 562

200 motels ______ 174 _ 95 _ 95 _ 87 _ 74 __ 50 ____ 561 (575)

Rameire ________ 172 _102 _ 95 _ 81 _ 72 __ 68 ____ 560 (590)

Dasa29 _________164 _ 67 _ 99 _ 90 _ 73 __ 66 ____ 559

MrSkinner _______180 _101 _ 69 _ 84 _ 65 __ 60 ____ 557 (559)

john mac (9/10) __149 _104 _ 89 _ 86 _ 66 __ 57 ____ 549 (551)

Joe Public _______ 175 _102 _ 79 _ 84 _ 71 __ 38 ____ 545 (550) 

Mr.stonewall _____178 _ 79 _105 _ 38 _ 66 __ 66 ____ 527 (531)

esposito _ (8/10)__152 _102 _ 45 _ 62 _ 59 __ 48 ____ 466 (469)

WolfeEire (4/10) ___ 61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

sdanseo ___(2/10) _ 34 _ 34 _ 34 _ 11 _ 16 __ 14 _____143

Rebelbrowser (1/10)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78

JCX BXC ___ (1/10)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65

aah yes____(1/10)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/10) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58

Tazio _____ (1/10) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to July totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)

IMT _ three top ranks -- no ties.

MAX _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be first.

MIN _ three top ranks -- no ties.

PRC _ three top ranks -- no ties.

SUN _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be third.

BONUS _ Two forecasters tied third. Con Sensus and Normal would be second.

Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 11.3 and all scoring estiMates will stay put until I can review MS on 2nd. Will adjust as required ...

M.T. Cranium

It appears scoring above is okay, all values very close to estimates ... PRC was 136% and SUN 94%. I will go over scoring to see if those small differences require any adjustments. All other values shown as preliminary were confirmed by the monthly summary.

I will also re-post scoring at some point to get it into scoring order instead of forecast table order.

No big changes will occur, I suspect a few scores will go up or down by 1 or possibly 2 points and others will not change at all. As we generally predict SUN in multiples of 5, 94% is not going to be any different from 95% ... PRC could be more random but I will be looking to see if we need minimum progression as it was marginal at 135% and 136% will drop more scores than it raises.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for October 2023

FORECASTER _____________ IMT ____MAX ____MIN ____PRC ____SUN ___ Max gust ____ TOTAL

___ October final values ____ 11.3 ____23.4 ____-1.9 ____ 136 ___ 094 _____ 57 kt

M.T. Cranium _____________11.3 25 _ 21.3 08*_ -1.7 18 _ 135 15 _ 095 10 __ 58 kt 10 ____ 86

sdanseo ________________ 11.0 22 _ 24.0 20*_ -1.5 16 _ 121 10 _ 089 09 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 86

sryanbruen ______________ 10.9 21 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.1 18 _ 110 06 _ 095 10 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 82

DOCARCH _______________ 10.8 20 _ 21.5 10*_ -2.1 18 _ 140 14 _ 090 09 __ 62kt 07 ____ 78

___ Con Sensus __________11.5 23 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.9 20 _ 115 08 _ 095 10 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 77

Adam240610 ____________ 11.0 22 _ 22.1 14*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 06 _ 110 07 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 74

Esposito ________________ 11.6 22 _ 21.8 11*_ -1.5 16 _ 115 08 _ 095 10 __ 63 kt 06 ____ 73

Bsal ____________________11.5 23 _ 21.9 12*_ -3.0 09 _ 130 13 _ 088 09 __ 65 kt 05 ____ 71

Rameire _______ (-2) _____ 11.5 23 _ 22.6 19*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 01 _ 105 08 __ 72 kt 02 _72-2=70

Artane2002 ______________11.2 24 _ 20.7 05*_ -2.0 19 _ 095 01 _ 090 09 __ 57 kt 10 ____ 68

Pauldry _________________ 12.1 17 _ 22.2 15*_ -1.0 11 _ 125 11 _ 095 10 __ 68 kt 04 ____ 68

Sunflower3_______________ 11.5 23 _ 21.0 07*_ -2.5 14 _ 115 08 _ 085 08 __ 62 kt 07 ____ 67

Tae laidir ________________ 11.5 23 _ 21.8 11*_ -2.3 16 _ 094 01 _ 097 09 __ 50 kt 06 ____ 66

dasa29 _________________ 11.0 22 _ 20.5 04*_ -1.5 16 _ 110 06 _ 090 09 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 66

Jpmarn _________________ 10.8 20 _ 20.8 06*_ -1.5 16 _ 160 07 _ 085 08 __ 61 kt 08 ____ 65

MrSkinner _______________ 12.0 18 _ 22.5 18*__0.0 01 _ 120 10 _ 100 09 __ 60 kt 09 ____ 65

Dacogawa _____________ 12.0 18 _ 22.3 16*_ -1.4 15 _ 165 05 _ 086 08 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 65

Cornerstonelad ___________12.0 18 _ 22.0 13*__1.0 11 _ 120 10 _ 100 09 __ 69 kt 03 ____ 64

Appledrop _______________ 12.1 17 _ 20.9 04*_ -1.8 19 _ 127 12 _ 110 07 __ 66 kt 05 ____ 64

john mac ______ (-1) ______12.1 17 _ 22.5 18*_ -2.8 11 _ 098 02 _ 102 08 __ 61 kt 08 _64-1=63

200motels _______________12.2 16 _ 21.3 08*_ -2.1 18 _ 109 06 _ 090 09 __ 71 kt 02 ____ 59

Gonzo __________________ 12.6 12 _ 20.4 03*_ -1.9 20 _ 121 10 _ 087 09 __ 67 kt 04 ____ 58

Kindred Spirit ____________ 12.1 17 _ 21.4 09*_ -1.6 17 _ 100 03 _ 085 08 __ 70 kt 03 ____ 57

MrStonewall ______________11.4 24 _ 20.1 02*_ -2.4 15 _ 073 00 _ 110 07 __ 52 kt 07 ____ 55

waterways _______________11.3 25 _ 21.4 09*_ -4.1 00 _ 095 01 _ 091 09 __ 56 kt 10 ____ 54

___NormaL ______________10.1 13 _ 20.5 04*_ -3.0 09 _ 100 03 _ 100 09 __ 54 kt 09 ____ 47

Joe Public _______________ 12.4 14 _ 19.9 01*_ -2.9 10 _ 110 06 _ 099 09 __ 75 kt 01 ____ 41

===============================

* scoring from minimum progression

Awkward ... congrats to various people for good scoring in October ... updated annual and category scoring to follow

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring January to October 2023

Now rank-ordered by best 8/10 scoring rather than total scores.

* forecasters who have 9 of 10, ** 8 of 10.

Note: OCT scores preliminary and subject to later adjustments.

Dropped scores for best 8 of 10 are in italics. An equal second lowest score is also in italics for a few scores.

Forecasters at 9/10 entries, one dropped score. At 8/10, no dropped scores.

OCT 8/10 _SEP 7 of 9 //

Rank (prv) best 8/10_FORECASTER J __F __M __A __M __J __J __A __S __O __TOTAL _Rank OCT ((Rank SEP))

(3.2) (1.8)_ 561 _ Con Sensus ___ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _60 _79 _68 _77 __ 679 _ 00.7 (00.7)

_ 01 (01) _ 584 _ Artane2002* __ 50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _68 _90 _72 _68 __ 634 ___ ( 4 ) _ (4)

_ 02 (02) _ 566 _ Sunflower3 ____47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _73 _73 _73 _67 __ 652 ___ ( 2 ) _ (1)

_ 03 (03) _ 562 _ tae laidir ______38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 _70 _78 _66 __ 643 ___ ( 3 ) _ (2)

_ 04 (04) _ 558 _ M.T. Cranium __ 67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _89 _63 _63 _86 __ 656 ___ ( 1 ) _ (3)

_ 05 (05) _ 540 _ sryanbruen ____46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _55 _48 _57 _83 __ 634 ___ ( 5 ) _ (6)

_ 06 (08) _ 519 _ adam240610 __ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _67 _57 _56 _74 __ 632 ___ ( 6 ) _ (5)

_ 07 (07) _ 516 _ Jpmarn*_____ 61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _70 _75 _75 _65 __ 565 ___ (t13)_ (15)

_ 08 (13) _ 512 _ DOCARCH _____77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _45 _55 _57 _78 __ 605 ___ ( 7 ) _(t9)

_ 09 (06) _ 511 _ Kindred Spirit __58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _37 _55 _53 _57 __ 601 ___ ( 8 ) _ (7)

_ 10 (09) _ 506 _ Appledrop _____53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _56 _52 _60 _64 __ 591 ___ ( 9 ) _ (t9)

_ 11 (12) _ 500 _ john mac* ____ 58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _51 _71 _54 _63 __ 547 ___ (21) _ (22)

_t12 (14) _ 498 _ MrSkinner _____25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _47 _69 _58 _65 __ 557 ___ (t19)_ (19)

_t12 (t10)_ 498 _ Gonzo ________46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _84 _52 _65 _58 __ 588 ___ (10) _ (8)

_ 14 (15) _ 497 _ Rameire ______ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _69 _59 _60 _70 __ 559 ___ (18)_ (21)

_ 15 (t10) _494 _ waterways ____ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _68 _65 _67 _54 __ 562 ___ (15) _ (12)

_ 16 (t16) _491 _ Dacogawa ____ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _51 _55 _66 _65 __ 581 ___ (11)_ (11)

_ 17 (18) _ 489 _ Cornerstonelad_ 49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 _76 _68 _64 __ 563 ___ (t13)_ (16)

_ 18 (20) _ 482 _ Bsal _________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _62 _61 _44 _71 __ 568 ___ (12) _ (17)

(18.1)(12.7)_482 NormaL _____67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _65 _60 _46 _47 __ 562 ___(16.0)_(11.1)

_ 19 (19) _ 481 _ 200 motels____ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 _47 _66 _59 __ 560 ___ (17) _ (14)

_ 20 (21) _ 471 _ Dasa29 _______ 61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _44 _65 _66 _66 __ 557 ___ (t19) _ (20)

_ 21 (22) _ 467 _ Pauldry _______ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _56 _51 _46 _68 __ 561 ___ (16) _ (18)

_ 22 (24) _ 466 _ esposito** _____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _50 _72 _66 _73 __ 466 ___ (24) _ (24)

_ 23 (t16) _ 462 _ Joe Public _____46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _41 _71 _85 _41 __ 544 ___ (22) _ (13)

_ 24 (23) _ 452 _ Mr.stonewall ___ 45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _57 _61 _72 _57 _55 __ 527 ___ (23) _ (23)

================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

_ 25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/10) _____ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __ 234

_ 26 (29) _ sdanseo (2/10) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 59 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 86 __145

_ 27 (26)_Rebelbrowser(1/10) ___ 78__--- _---_--- _--- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- ___ 78

_ 28 (27) _ JCX BXC (1/10) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 65 _ --- _ --- _--- _--- ___ 65

_ 29 (28) _Aah yes (1/10) ______ --- _--- _---_--- _ 60 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- ___ 60

_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/10) _______ 58 _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- ___ 58

_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/10) ________ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- ___51

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals January -October ____

FORECASTER ___ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible ____250 _200 _200 _150 _100 __100 ____1000

_ Con Sensus ___ 185 _131 _116 _ 92 _ 81 __ 74 ____ 679

M.T. Cranium ____193 _ 77 _124 _100 _ 85 __ 77 ____ 656

Sunflower3 _____186 _117 _117 _ 86 _ 76 __ 70 ____ 652

Tae laidir________207 _ 91 _132 _ 67 _ 76 __70 ____ 643

Artane2002(9/10)_170_113 _133 _83 _ 72 __ 65 ____ 634 (636)

sryanbruen _____ 181 _113 _117 _ 89 _ 75 __ 64 ____ 635 (639)

adam240610____ 188 _116 _112 _ 80 _ 70 __ 69 ____ 632 (636)

DOCARCH ______ 148 _122 _106 _102 _73__ 54 ____ 605

Kindred Spirit ____167 _110 _116 _ 74 _ 67 __ 67 ____ 601

Appledrop _______187 _ 61 _111 _ 93 _ 83 __ 56 ____ 591

Gonzo __________176 _ 96 _ 88 _ 89 _ 73 __ 68 ____ 588 (590)

Dacogawa ______ 189 _ 92 _ 91 _ 70 __77 __ 62 ____ 581

Bsal ___________ 171 _101 _ 71 _103 _ 68__ 64 ____ 568 (577)

Jpmarn __(9/10)__157 _ 81 _115 _ 85 _ 66 __ 61 ____565

Cornerstonelad ___179 _118 _ 81 _ 79 _ 64 __ 59 ____ 563 (580)

waterways ______ 160 _116 _ 66 _ 78 _ 76 __ 66 ____ 562

Pauldry _________180 _102 _ 66 _ 94 _ 73 __ 46 ____ 561

_ NormaL ______ 125 _112 _89 _ 92 __71 __ 73 ____ 562

200 motels ______ 174 _ 95 _ 95 _ 86 _ 74 __ 50 ____ 560 (574)

Rameire ________ 172 _102 _ 95 _ 80 _ 72 __ 68 ____ 559 (589)

Dasa29 _________164 _ 67 _ 99 _ 89 _ 73 __ 66 ____ 558

MrSkinner _______180 _101 _ 69 _ 84 _ 65 __ 60 ____ 557 (559)

john mac (9/10) __149 _104 _ 89 _ 85 _ 65 __ 57 ____ 547 (549)

Joe Public _______ 175 _102 _ 79 _ 83 _ 71 __ 38 ____ 544 (549) 

Mr.stonewall _____178 _ 79 _105 _ 38 _ 66 __ 66 ____ 527 (531)

esposito _ (8/10)__152 _102 _ 45 _ 62 _ 59 __ 48 ____ 466 (469)

WolfeEire (4/10) ___ 61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

sdanseo ___(2/10) _ 35 _ 34 _ 34 _ 11 _ 17 __ 14 _____145

Rebelbrowser (1/10)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78

JCX BXC ___ (1/10)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65

aah yes____(1/10)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/10) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58

Tazio _____ (1/10) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to July totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)

IMT _ three top ranks -- no ties.

MAX _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be first.

MIN _ three top ranks -- no ties.

PRC _ three top ranks -- no ties.

SUN _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be third.

BONUS _ Two forecasters tied third. Con Sensus and Normal would be second.

Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============