September 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for September 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 13.0.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature at any of the regular reporting sites on the met-ie website on Sunday 3rd, naming station. 7/10 for temp and 3/10 for location, superbonus points available.

M.T. Cranium _________14.0 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 115 __ 23.0 Mountdillon (may edit before deadline)

NormaL _____________ 13.0 _ 25.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ will be based on 00z Sep 1 GFS numerical forecasts

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

Good luck.

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 13.5 _ 25.0 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 92 __22.0 Gurteen 

pauldry

Pauldry_____________ 13.8_ 24.5_ -1_ 75_ 112__23.8 Claremorris

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ 1.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 24.5 Mount Dillon

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 14.2 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 075 _ 121 __23.5 Mount Dillon 

dasa29

Dasa29 _____________ 14.0_ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 90 __22.0 Mullingar 

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad _____15.0__25.6__0.5__98_130_25.6 Mount Dillon

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____14.2__26. 2__1.5__065_120_24.6 Mullingar

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 14.0° ___ 24.2 ___ 1.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 23.1 Mount Dillon.

waterways

waterways _________14.2 _ 26.2 _ -1.1 _ 112 _ 89 __ 23.0 Shannon

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________ 14.6 _ 25.4 _ 0.7 _ 072 _ 127 __23.8 Mount Dillon.

rameire

Rameire _____________ 14.3 _ 23.6 _ 1.0 _ 092 _ 95 __23.6 Oak Park.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____________ 13.4 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 105 __22.6 Mount Dillon

esposito

Esposito _____________ 14.9_ 26.2 _ -1.1 _ 065 _ 125 __24.1 Shannon

John mac

john mac_________14.1 _ 24.7 _ -2.2 _ 110 _ 102 __ 23.2 oak park

appledrop

Appledrop___14.6___23.4___0.8__85___120____22.9 Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _________14.7 _ 27 _ 1.1 _ 88 _ 119 __ 23.2 Phoenix Park

mrskinner

Skinner____14.4___25.4____-2.0____88____100____23.2Phoenix

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 0.8 _ 110 _ 120 __23.4 Moorepark.

adam240610

Adam240610___________ 14.1__ 25.5 _ 0 _ 070 _ 122__23.3 mount dillon

M.T. Cranium

NormaL will be riding GFS numerical output of 18z model run (00z would be late) ... 22.0 at Moorepark is my reading of it. I will revise my earlier forecast to 23.5 at Moorepark. I am also raising my IMT before late penalty to 14.5 (from 14.0).

Tae laidir

Tae Laidir _________ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 105 __ 22.3 Oak Park

200motels

200motels---------- 14.3 _ 26.2 _ 0.3 _ 073 _ 120 __22.6 Oak Park

dacogawa

Dacogawa___14.6___24.5___1.1__90___125____23.7 Moorepark

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall___14.5___25.1___0.4___55___115___23.4 shannon

M.T. Cranium

__ Table of forecasts for September 2023 __

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 3rd loc'n

Cornerstonelad __________15.0 _ 25.6 _ 0.5 _ 098 _ 130 ___ 25.6 Mountdillon

Esposito _______________ 14.9 _ 26.2 _-1.1 _ 065 _ 125 ___ 24.1 Shannon

Joe Public ______________ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 1.1 _ 088 _ 119 ___ 23.2 Phoenix Park

Gonzo _________________14.6 _ 25.4 _ 0.7 _ 072 _ 127 ___ 23.8 Mountdillon

Dacogawa ______________14.6 _ 24.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 23.7 Moorepark

Appledrop ______________14.6 _ 23.4 _ 0.8 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 22.9 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 14.5 _ 25.5 _-0.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 23.5 Moorepark

Mr Stonewall ___ (-1) ____ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 0.4 _ 055 _ 115 ___ 23.4 Shannon

MrSkinner ______________14.4 _ 25.4 _-2.0 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 23.2 Phoenix Park

Tae Laidir ______________ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 22.3 Oak Park

200motels _____________ 14.3 _ 26.2 _ 0.3 _ 073 _ 120 ___ 22.6 Oak Park

Rameire _______________14.3 _ 23.6 _ 1.0 _ 092 _ 095 ___ 23.6 Oak Park

___ Con Sensus _________14.3 _ 25.4 _ 0.5 _ 087 _ 115 ___ 23.3 (see note below)

Sunflower3 _____________14.2 _ 26.2 _ 1.5 _ 065 _ 120 ___ 24.6 Mullingar

waterways _____________ 14.2 _ 26.2 _-1.1 _ 112 _ 089 ___ 23.0 Shannon

sryanbruen ____________ 14.2 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 075 _ 121 ___ 23.5 Mountdillon 

Adam240610 ___________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 0.0 _ 070 _ 122 ___ 23.3 Mountdillon

john mac ______________14.1 _ 24.7 _-2.2 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 23.2 Oak Park

Artane2002 ____________14.0 _ 25.7 _ 1.5 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 24.5 Mountdillon

Dasa29 _______________ 14.0 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.0 Mullingar 

Kindred Spirit __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 23.1 Mountdillon

Jpmarn _______________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 0.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 23.4 Moorepark

Pauldry _______________ 13.8 _ 24.5 _-1.0 _ 075 _ 112 ___ 23.8 Claremorris

Bsal __________________13.5 _ 25.0 _-2.5 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 

DOCARCH _____________ 13.4 _ 26.3 _-0.9 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 22.6 Mountdillon

___ NormaL ____________13.0 _ 25.5 _-2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0

____________________________________

In general our consensus is for a warm, dry and sunny September.

BONUS: Numbers of picks for various locations, your score will be 3 if your pick is warmest (of picks, non-picks don't count for this part of scoring), 2 if your pick is 2nd warmest, and 1 if your pick is 3rd or 4th warmest:

Mountdillon ______ 7 _____ Con Sensus scores 3 if warmest

Oak Park ________ 5 _____ Con Sensus scores 2 if warmest

Shannon ________ 3 _____ Con Sensus scores 1 if warmest (to end of list, zero if a place not picked is warmest)

Moorepark _______ 3

Phoenix Park _____ 2

Mullingar ________ 2

Gurteen _________ 1

Claremorris ______ 1

(NormaL will score 3/3 if warmest is any of these except 2/3 Gurteen, Claremorris .. NormaL will score 1 or 2 of 3 for various other locations not picked if they are warmest).

Range of temperature picks (not including Con Sensus or NormaL)...

25.0 or higher ___ 1

24.5 to 24.9 ____ 2

24.0 to 24.4 ____ 1

23,5 to 23.9 ____ 6

23.0 to 23.4 ____ 8

22.5 to 22.9 ____ 3

22.0 to 22.4 ____ 3

NormaL is set at 22.0 Moorepark from guidance available near contest deadline.

Good luck everyone.

M.T. Cranium

To prepare for scoring of bonus question, here are the forecasts re-arranged in order ... I am seeing hourly reports of 24 from Oak Park and Phoenix Park, 23 for Moorepark, the other picks lower (Casement and Dublin not picked hit at least 23).

Forecasts of max temp Sunday 3rd September

Cornerstonelad __________25.6 Mountdillon

Sunflower3 _____________24.6 Mullingar

Artane2002 ____________ 24.5 Mountdillon

Esposito _______________ 24.1 Shannon

Gonzo _________________23.8 Mountdillon

Pauldry ________________23.8 Claremorris

Dacogawa ______________23.7 Moorepark

Rameire _______________ 23.6 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 23.5 Moorepark

sryanbruen _____________23.5 Mountdillon 

Jpmarn ________________23.4 Moorepark

Mr Stonewall ___________ 23.4 Shannon

Adam240610 ___________ 23.3 Mountdillon

___ Con Sensus _________23.3

MrSkinner ______________23.2 Phoenix Park

Joe Public ______________ 23.2 Phoenix Park

john mac ______________ 23.2 Oak Park

Kindred Spirit ___________23.1 Mountdillon

waterways _____________ 23.0 Shannon

Appledrop ______________22.9 Oak Park

200motels _____________ 22.6 Oak Park

DOCARCH _____________ 22.6 Mountdillon

Tae Laidir ______________22.3 Oak Park

Dasa29 _______________ 22.0 Mullingar 

Bsal __________________ 22.0 Gurteen 

___ NormaL ____________22.0

____________________________________

Look for scoring of this tomorrow. It will be my labour for labour day.

DOCARCH

I think I heard (on weather after 6pm news) high was 23.8c at Oak Park. I could have misheard!

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121065058#Comment_121065058

That's what she said ok

M.T. Cranium

Contest locations _________ Not picked

Phoenix Park 24.2

Oak Park 23.8 ___________ Dublin 23.1, Casement 22.9

Moorepark 22.9 _________ Johnstown 22.0

Shannon 21.8 __________ Cork 21.6

Mullingar 21.4 __________ Markree 21.2

Gurteen 20.9 ___________

Mountdillon 20.3 ________Valentia 20.4

Claremorris 19.8 ________

(scoring to follow)

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for Bonus _ Max 3rd

As the forecasts were all in a reasonable range, I decided to score them 2 to 7 and avoid 0 or 1 scores. That meant six scoring levels among 24 forecasters, but ties somewhat distorted that outcome. For locations, Phoenix Park scores 3/3, Oak Park 2/3, and either Moorepark or Shannon scored one. Locations not selected were not an issue although several were in location points range. I gave Con and NormaL 3/3 for location.

sb in the table is "super bonus" ... oddly all the best temperature forecasts avoided the two warmest locations, nobody qualified for super bonus points so that column is voided.

As we should always have 10/10 as bonus category max, the total scores here will be adjusted as shown, keeping 3/10 as the lowest total adjusted. As superbonus failed to activate, my concept for adjustment is to add two to all scores that had a location score of 2 or 3, and one to those that did not, but I did add 2 to closest temperature forecast (Esposito) despite location score of only 1/3.

___ Outcome >> _______ 24.2 __ Phoenix Park (23.8 Oak Park) (22.9 Moorepark) (21.9 Shannon)

FORECASTER ___________ Temp _ Loc'n _________ Temp pts __ Loc'n pts ___ sb _ TOTAL ___ adjusted

Cornerstonelad __________25.6 Mountdillon _________ 3 __________ 0 __________ 3 ______ 4

Sunflower3 _____________24.6 Mullingar ___________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Artane2002 ____________ 24.5 Mountdillon __________7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Esposito _______________ 24.1 Shannon ___________ 7 __________ 1 __________ 8 ______10

Gonzo _________________23.8 Mountdillon _________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Pauldry ________________23.8 Claremorris _________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Dacogawa ______________23.7 Moorepark __________ 6 __________ 1 __________ 7 ______ 8

Rameire _______________ 23.6 Oak Park ____________6 __________ 2 __________ 8 _____ 10

M.T. Cranium ___________ 23.5 Moorepark __________ 6 __________ 1 __________ 7 ______ 8

sryanbruen _____________23.5 Mountdillon _________6 __________ 0 __________ 6 ______ 7

Jpmarn ________________23.4 Moorepark ___________5 __________ 1 __________ 6 ______ 7

Mr Stonewall ___________ 23.4 Shannon ____________ 5 __________ 1 __________ 6 ______ 7

Adam240610 ___________ 23.3 Mountdillon __________ 5 __________ 0 __________ 5 ______ 6

___ Con Sensus _________23.3 (PP) ________________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

MrSkinner ______________23.2 Phoenix Park _________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

Joe Public ______________ 23.2 Phoenix Park _________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

john mac ______________ 23.2 Oak Park _____________ 5 __________ 2 __________ 7 ______9

Kindred Spirit ___________23.1 Mountdillon ___________ 4 __________ 0 __________ 4 ______ 5

waterways _____________ 23.0 Shannon ______________4 __________ 1 __________ 5 ______ 6

Appledrop ______________22.9 Oak Park _____________ 4 __________ 2 __________ 6 ______ 8

200motels _____________ 22.6 Oak Park _____________ 3 __________ 2 __________ 5 ______ 7

DOCARCH _____________ 22.6 Mountdillon ____________ 3 __________ 0 __________ 3 ______ 4

Tae Laidir ______________22.3 Oak Park ______________ 3 __________ 2 __________ 5 ______ 7

Dasa29 _______________ 22.0 Mullingar _____________ 2 __________ 0 __________ 2 ______ 3

Bsal __________________ 22.0 Gurteen _____________ 2__________ 0 __________ 2 ______ 3

___ NormaL ____________22.0 (PP, OP) _______________ 2 __________ 3 __________ 5 ______ 7

____________________________________

Joe Public

The record highest temp 0f 27.9C for Sept was in 2021 on Sept 7th at Shannon Airport, could this be beaten this week?

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068733#Comment_121068733

Well we are at 27.6 yesterday at Valentica so it gave it a good run for its money.

M.T. Cranium

After one week of September,

IMT 18.0 (3.9 above normal)

MAX 28.1 Mountdillon 7th (already under threat again today)

MIN tbd

PRC 11% of normal

SUN 167% of normal

Max 3rd 14.2 PP (scoring settled above)

___________________

Will be leaving on a road trip vacation soon as dawn breaks here soon, may or may not be able to provide 2nd week summary, but won't be seeing much data next 3-4 days for sure, but I am sure you'll continue to watch for developments as always. Forecasts will be provided, thanks as always ... take it easy.

appledrop

We will keep an eye on the heatwave here M.T, enjoy the trip👍

appledrop

Met Eireann reporting max of 28.5 today, think it was at Oak Park.

Tae laidir

I see we had a 6.1 at Markee Castle yesterday.

pauldry

Itl be 3c tonight so that figure will be irrelevant.

DOCARCH

Low of 4.3c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

Saw 3c reported there (and Markree) this morning so the above will not last long as low for the month so far!

Tae laidir

Yes, 3.0 confirmed for Markee.

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon 2.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Greetings, I am able to take a five minute vacation from my vacation, currently in Kanab (s.w. Utah) taking in scenery (not at exact moment as sun just about to rise, it is 0600 mountain daylight time here) and unexpectedly we had a storm intercept yesterday including a brief formation of 3 spinning vortices, acting like dust devils except for rain coming down quite strongly, and also some epic lightning; most of trip weather has been sunny to partly cloudy and quite warm (25 to 30 until a peak around 38 in s Nevada on Tuesday), but after a clear start for our trip south, some storms have been moving past each day, often missing by a few miles so we've enjoyed a good view of storm structure, it is not really monsoon season down here (storms tend to move SE to NW), the storms are forming along weak cold fronts and are moving west to east, but in any case, it has been a sort of weatherman's holiday I suppose. We will be starting to meander north again by weekend and estimated return to home base by Tuesday 19th.

Anyway, update for second week,

IMT was still on 17.0 to 14th, second week average 16.0 (2.3 above normal) ... will be more like 16.7 now after 15 days.

MAX 28.5, MIN 2.6

PRC was at 50% after 89% of normal fell in second week. Today's downpours will surely adjust the running average to nearly 100%.

SUN dropped back to 133% with a very average 99% to report for week two.

BONUS was already discussed and scored (24.2 PP on 3rd if I recall).

Thanks again to all for continuing to update events, and to sryanbruen who is forecasting. I will likely be up and running again by third week report.

M.T. Cranium

Back now at base of operations ... I see IMT 16.06 after 18 days. ... PRC looks to be around 90% now (of 1-18 average values), north still quite dry before today at least.

M.T. Cranium

Warmest Septembers at Shannon since 1945, these six are followed by six more at 15.1 C.

01 __ 2021 15.7

02 __ 2006 15.5

03t__ 1971 15.3

03t__ 1991 15.3

05t__ 1949 15.2

05t__ 2014 15.2

Shannon is usually 0.5 to 0.8 above the IMT so warmest September IMT values are likely around 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 15.8 first twenty days (Shannon 16.6, see previous post for relevance). I saw an hourly of 3C at Markree around 0600h during forecast prep early today. (Min so far 2.6). Third week report in about 24h then ...

M.T. Cranium

If you guessed that scoring would require minimum progression, you guessed right. Only one forecast would score any points at all for 28.5, so here is a look at scoring for MAX. I have left in your MIN forecasts, most of which will be dependent on low Saturday morning perhaps to avoid another dose of minimum progression ... current MIN of 2.6 would only generate a few low to medium raw scores (dasa29 and tae laidir at 2.0 would score 14 and could be in hammer position for outcomes 1.8 to 2.2). Also, IMT, is unlikely to need a boost but you can pretty much expect scoring as shown or at least in same sequence (any result higher than 15.2 will be scored from 15.2 as a form of minimum progression, but I currently expect to see an outcome pretty close to max forecast of 15.0). PRC and SUN are a bit volatile for estimates yet, and bonus is of course already scored, as shown.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _pts __MAX _Pts __MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Bonus __ (score)

Cornerstonelad __________15.0 (25) _ 25.6 (14) _ 0.5 _ 098 _ 130 ___ 25.6 Md __ 4

Esposito _______________ 14.9 (24) _ 26.2 (18) _-1.1 _ 065 _ 125 ___ 24.1 Sh __10

Joe Public ______________ 14.7 (22) _ 27.0 (20) _ 1.1 _ 088 _ 119 ___ 23.2 PP __10

Gonzo _________________14.6 (21) _ 25.4 (12) _ 0.7 _ 072 _ 127 ___ 23.8 Md __ 8

Dacogawa ______________14.6 (21) _ 24.5 ( 5) _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 23.7 Mo __ 8

Appledrop ______________14.6 (21) _ 23.4 ( 1) _ 0.8 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 22.9 OP __ 8

M.T. Cranium ___________ 14.5 (20) _ 25.5 (13) _-0.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 23.5 Mo __ 8

Mr Stonewall ___ (-1) ____ 14.5 (20) _ 25.1 ( 9) _ 0.4 _ 055 _ 115 ___ 23.4 Sh __ 7

MrSkinner ______________14.4 (19) _ 25.4 (12) _-2.0 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 23.2 PP __10

Tae Laidir ______________ 14.4 (19) _ 25.3 (11) _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 22.3 OP __ 7

200motels _____________ 14.3 (18) _ 26.2 (18) _ 0.3 _ 073 _ 120 ___ 22.6 OP __ 7

Rameire _______________ 14.3 (18) _ 23.6 ( 2) _ 1.0 _ 092 _ 095 ___ 23.6 OP __10

___ Con Sensus _________14.3 (18) _ 25.4 (12) _ 0.5 _ 087 _ 115 ___ 23.3 __ __10

Sunflower3 _____________14.2 (17) _ 26.2 (18) _ 1.5 _ 065 _ 120 ___ 24.6 Mul __ 8

waterways _____________ 14.2 (17) _ 26.2 (18) _-1.1 _ 112 _ 089 ___ 23.0 Sh __ 6

sryanbruen ____________ 14.2 (17) _ 25.2 (10) _ 0.1 _ 075 _ 121 ___ 23.5 Md __ 7

Adam240610 ___________14.1 (16) _ 25.5 (13) _ 0.0 _ 070 _ 122 ___ 23.3 Md __ 6

john mac ______________14.1 (16) _ 24.7 ( 6) _-2.2 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 23.2 OP __ 9

Artane2002 ____________14.0 (15) _ 25.7 (15) _ 1.5 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 24.5 Md __ 8

Dasa29 _______________ 14.0 (15) _ 25.0 ( 8) _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.0 Mul __ 3

Kindred Spirit __________ 14.0 (15) _ 24.2 ( 3) _ 1.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 23.1 Md __ 5

Jpmarn _______________ 13.9 (14) _ 25.8 (16) _ 0.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 23.4 Mo __ 7

Pauldry _______________ 13.8 (13) _ 24.5 ( 5) _-1.0 _ 075 _ 112 ___ 23.8 Cla __ 8

Bsal __________________13.5 (10) _ 25.0 ( 8) _-2.5 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 22.0 Gur __ 3

DOCARCH _____________ 13.4 ( 9) _ 26.3 (19) _-0.9 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 22.6 Md __ 4

___ NormaL ____________13.0 ( 5) _ 25.5 (13) _-2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0 __ __ 7

M.T. Cranium

New min of 2.5 on 21st at Markree.

Third week report,

IMT is now 15.6, third week average 12.7, 0.4 below normal.

MAX 28.5 (already scored above), MIN 2.5 (chance of a lower reading tonight)

PRC now 117% with the third week average 252% of normal.

SUN at 120% with the third week average 94% of normal.

BONUS 24.2 Phoenix Park already scored.

Will revisit the posted partial scoring estimates by Sunday after MIN revised (or not) ... currently think PRC ends up near 120%, SUN near 110% by end of September. IMT could be into 14s by end also, but 15.0 possible if one or two days exceed 15 for average.

M.T. Cranium

Lowest I saw was 3C last night so we could be facing another score by minimum progression. Updated scoring estimates:

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for September 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _pts __MAX _Pts __MIN _Pts _PRC _Pts _ SUN _Pts __ Bonus __ (score)

___ Estimates ________ 15.0 _____ 28.5 _____ 2.5 _____ 110 ______110 ______ 14.2 PP _______ TOTALS

Cornerstonelad ________15.0 (25) _ 25.6 (14) _ 0.5 (11) _ 098 (11) _ 130 (6) ___ 25.6 Md __ 4 ____ 71

Esposito _____________ 14.9 (24) _ 26.2 (18) _-1.1 (05) _ 065 (00) _ 125 (7) ___ 24.1 Sh __10 ____ 64

Joe Public ____________ 14.7 (22) _ 27.0 (20) _ 1.1 (16) _ 088 (08) _ 119 (8) ___ 23.2 PP __10 ____ 84

Gonzo _______________14.6 (21) _ 25.4 (12) _ 0.7 (13) _ 072 (02) _ 127 (7) ___ 23.8 Md __ 8 ____ 63

Dacogawa ____________14.6 (21) _ 24.5 ( 5) _ 1.1 (16) _ 090 (08) _ 125 (7) ___ 23.7 Mo __ 8 ____ 65

Appledrop ____________14.6 (21) _ 23.4 ( 1) _ 0.8 (14) _ 085 (07) _ 120 (8) ___ 22.9 OP __ 8 ____ 59

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.5 (20) _ 25.5 (13) _-0.5 (08) _ 075 (03) _ 115 (9) ___23.5 Mo __ 8 ____ 61

Mr Stonewall __ (-1) ___ 14.5 (20) _ 25.1 ( 9) _ 0.4 (12) _ 055 (00) _ 115 (9) ___ 23.4 Sh __ 7 _57-1=56

MrSkinner ____________14.4 (19) _ 25.4 (12) _-2.0 (02) _ 088 (08) _ 100 (8) ___ 23.2 PP __10 ____ 59

Tae Laidir ____________ 14.4 (19) _ 25.3 (11) _ 2.0 (20) _ 105 (13) _ 105 (9) ___ 22.3 OP __ 7 ____ 79

200motels ___________ 14.3 (18) _ 26.2 (18) _ 0.3 (10) _ 073 (03) _ 120 (8) ___ 22.6 OP __ 7 ____ 64

Rameire _____________ 14.3 (18) _ 23.6 ( 2) _ 1.0 (15) _ 092 (09) _ 095 (7) ___ 23.6 OP __10 ____ 61

___ Con Sensus _______14.3 (18) _ 25.4 (12) _ 0.5 (11) _ 087 (07) _ 115 (9) ___ 23.3 __ __10 ____ 67

Sunflower3 ___________14.2 (17) _ 26.2 (18) _ 1.5 (18) _ 065 (00) _ 120 (8) ___ 24.6 Mul __ 8 ____ 69

waterways ___________ 14.2 (17) _ 26.2 (18) _-1.1 (05) _ 112 (14) _ 089 (6) ___ 23.0 Sh __ 6 ____ 66

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 (17) _ 25.2 (10) _ 0.1 (10) _ 075 (03) _ 121 (8) ___ 23.5 Md __ 7 ____ 55

Adam240610 _________14.1 (16) _ 25.5 (13) _ 0.0 (09) _ 070 (02) _ 122 (8) ___ 23.3 Md __ 6 ____ 54

john mac ____________14.1 (16) _ 24.7 ( 6) _-2.2 (01) _ 110 (15) _ 102 (8) ___ 23.2 OP __ 9 ____ 55

Artane2002 __________14.0 (15) _ 25.7 (15) _ 1.5 (18) _ 085 (07) _ 110 (10)___ 24.5 Md __ 8 ____ 73

Dasa29 _____________ 14.0 (15) _ 25.0 ( 8) _ 2.0 (20) _ 110 (15) _ 090 (6) ___ 22.0 Mul __ 3 ____ 67

Kindred Spirit ________ 14.0 (15) _ 24.2 ( 3) _ 1.0 (15) _ 085 (07) _ 105 (9) ___ 23.1 Md __ 5 ____ 54

Jpmarn _____________ 13.9 (14) _ 25.8 (16) _ 0.8 (14) _ 110 (15) _ 120 (8) ___ 23.4 Mo __ 7 ____ 74

Pauldry _____________ 13.8 (13) _ 24.5 ( 5) _-1.0 (06) _ 075 (03) _ 112 (10)___ 23.8 Cla __ 8 ____ 45

Bsal ________________13.5 (10) _ 25.0 ( 8) _-2.5 (01) _ 115 (13) _ 092 (6) ___ 22.0 Gur __ 3 ____ 41

DOCARCH ___________ 13.4 ( 9) _ 26.3 (19) _-0.9 (07) _ 095 (10) _ 105 (9) ___ 22.6 Md __ 4 ____ 58

___ NormaL __________13.0 ( 5) _ 25.5 (13) _-2.0 (02) _ 100 (12) _ 100 (8) ___ 22.0 __ __ 7 ____ 47

<<< Table to be placed in scoring order and adjusted to actual outcomes around 1st of October >>>

M.T. Cranium

IMT fallen off to 15.14 C after 24 days, will likely steady off now but could be a few extra IMT points for all but top forecasts above. PRC was just about at a guaranteed 100% before today, Wednesday will bring it to at least a guaranteed 110%. Scoring above is likely going to be close to actual but add 2-3 if you are at 14.8 or lower for your IMT forecast.

M.T. Cranium

IMT stayed on 15.1 to 26th but PRC is likely going to finish closer to 130% than 110. Scores won't be a lot different as we will need to adjust them to minimum progression, max forecast was only 115% (bsal) will go to 15 and gain 2 points, waterways at 112% stays at 14, and a few others could lose a point or two.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT is now 15.0 (14.96), fourth week average 13.1, 0.7 above normal. Looks likely to finish 14.9, certainly there after today.

MAX 28.5 (already scored above), MIN 2.5 (no chance of a lower reading tonight)

PRC now at 141% with the third week average 214% of normal. Will finish around 140% as rain Saturday adds to guaranteed 133%. Scoring will need to be revised to minimum progression but scoring already shown will not change a lot.

SUN now at 112% with the fourth week average 86% of normal. Expect 110% at end of month, sun at times today balanced by mostly cloudy skies on 30th.

BONUS 24.2 Phoenix Park already scored.

Will adjust scoring on Sunday 1st from closest estimates available then it could be 5th before I can finalize (won't be around internet on 3rd or 4th to see MS due to travel plans).