September 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for September 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 13.0.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature at any of the regular reporting sites on the met-ie website on Sunday 3rd, naming station. 7/10 for temp and 3/10 for location, superbonus points available.

M.T. Cranium _________14.0 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 115 __ 23.0 Mountdillon (may edit before deadline)

NormaL _____________ 13.0 _ 25.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ will be based on 00z Sep 1 GFS numerical forecasts

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

Good luck.

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 13.5 _ 25.0 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 92 __22.0 Gurteen 

pauldry

Pauldry_____________ 13.8_ 24.5_ -1_ 75_ 112__23.8 Claremorris

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ 1.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 24.5 Mount Dillon

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 14.2 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 075 _ 121 __23.5 Mount Dillon 

dasa29

Dasa29 _____________ 14.0_ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 90 __22.0 Mullingar 

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad _____15.0__25.6__0.5__98_130_25.6 Mount Dillon

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____14.2__26. 2__1.5__065_120_24.6 Mullingar

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 14.0° ___ 24.2 ___ 1.0 ___ 85 ___ 105 ___ 23.1 Mount Dillon.

waterways

waterways _________14.2 _ 26.2 _ -1.1 _ 112 _ 89 __ 23.0 Shannon

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________ 14.6 _ 25.4 _ 0.7 _ 072 _ 127 __23.8 Mount Dillon.

rameire

Rameire _____________ 14.3 _ 23.6 _ 1.0 _ 092 _ 95 __23.6 Oak Park.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____________ 13.4 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 105 __22.6 Mount Dillon

esposito

Esposito _____________ 14.9_ 26.2 _ -1.1 _ 065 _ 125 __24.1 Shannon

John mac

john mac_________14.1 _ 24.7 _ -2.2 _ 110 _ 102 __ 23.2 oak park

appledrop

Appledrop___14.6___23.4___0.8__85___120____22.9 Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _________14.7 _ 27 _ 1.1 _ 88 _ 119 __ 23.2 Phoenix Park

mrskinner

Skinner____14.4___25.4____-2.0____88____100____23.2Phoenix

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 0.8 _ 110 _ 120 __23.4 Moorepark.

adam240610

Adam240610___________ 14.1__ 25.5 _ 0 _ 070 _ 122__23.3 mount dillon

M.T. Cranium

NormaL will be riding GFS numerical output of 18z model run (00z would be late) ... 22.0 at Moorepark is my reading of it. I will revise my earlier forecast to 23.5 at Moorepark. I am also raising my IMT before late penalty to 14.5 (from 14.0).

Tae laidir

Tae Laidir _________ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 105 __ 22.3 Oak Park

200motels

200motels---------- 14.3 _ 26.2 _ 0.3 _ 073 _ 120 __22.6 Oak Park

dacogawa

Dacogawa___14.6___24.5___1.1__90___125____23.7 Moorepark

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall___14.5___25.1___0.4___55___115___23.4 shannon

M.T. Cranium

__ Table of forecasts for September 2023 __

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 3rd loc'n

Cornerstonelad __________15.0 _ 25.6 _ 0.5 _ 098 _ 130 ___ 25.6 Mountdillon

Esposito _______________ 14.9 _ 26.2 _-1.1 _ 065 _ 125 ___ 24.1 Shannon

Joe Public ______________ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 1.1 _ 088 _ 119 ___ 23.2 Phoenix Park

Gonzo _________________14.6 _ 25.4 _ 0.7 _ 072 _ 127 ___ 23.8 Mountdillon

Dacogawa ______________14.6 _ 24.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 23.7 Moorepark

Appledrop ______________14.6 _ 23.4 _ 0.8 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 22.9 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 14.5 _ 25.5 _-0.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 23.5 Moorepark

Mr Stonewall ___ (-1) ____ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 0.4 _ 055 _ 115 ___ 23.4 Shannon

MrSkinner ______________14.4 _ 25.4 _-2.0 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 23.2 Phoenix Park

Tae Laidir ______________ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 22.3 Oak Park

200motels _____________ 14.3 _ 26.2 _ 0.3 _ 073 _ 120 ___ 22.6 Oak Park

Rameire _______________14.3 _ 23.6 _ 1.0 _ 092 _ 095 ___ 23.6 Oak Park

___ Con Sensus _________14.3 _ 25.4 _ 0.5 _ 087 _ 115 ___ 23.3 (see note below)

Sunflower3 _____________14.2 _ 26.2 _ 1.5 _ 065 _ 120 ___ 24.6 Mullingar

waterways _____________ 14.2 _ 26.2 _-1.1 _ 112 _ 089 ___ 23.0 Shannon

sryanbruen ____________ 14.2 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 075 _ 121 ___ 23.5 Mountdillon 

Adam240610 ___________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 0.0 _ 070 _ 122 ___ 23.3 Mountdillon

john mac ______________14.1 _ 24.7 _-2.2 _ 110 _ 102 ___ 23.2 Oak Park

Artane2002 ____________14.0 _ 25.7 _ 1.5 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 24.5 Mountdillon

Dasa29 _______________ 14.0 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 22.0 Mullingar 

Kindred Spirit __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.0 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 23.1 Mountdillon

Jpmarn _______________ 13.9 _ 25.8 _ 0.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 23.4 Moorepark

Pauldry _______________ 13.8 _ 24.5 _-1.0 _ 075 _ 112 ___ 23.8 Claremorris

Bsal __________________13.5 _ 25.0 _-2.5 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 

DOCARCH _____________ 13.4 _ 26.3 _-0.9 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 22.6 Mountdillon

___ NormaL ____________13.0 _ 25.5 _-2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 22.0

____________________________________

In general our consensus is for a warm, dry and sunny September.

BONUS: Numbers of picks for various locations, your score will be 3 if your pick is warmest (of picks, non-picks don't count for this part of scoring), 2 if your pick is 2nd warmest, and 1 if your pick is 3rd or 4th warmest:

Mountdillon ______ 7 _____ Con Sensus scores 3 if warmest

Oak Park ________ 5 _____ Con Sensus scores 2 if warmest

Shannon ________ 3 _____ Con Sensus scores 1 if warmest (to end of list, zero if a place not picked is warmest)

Moorepark _______ 3

Phoenix Park _____ 2

Mullingar ________ 2

Gurteen _________ 1

Claremorris ______ 1

(NormaL will score 3/3 if warmest is any of these except 2/3 Gurteen, Claremorris .. NormaL will score 1 or 2 of 3 for various other locations not picked if they are warmest).

Range of temperature picks (not including Con Sensus or NormaL)...

25.0 or higher ___ 1

24.5 to 24.9 ____ 2

24.0 to 24.4 ____ 1

23,5 to 23.9 ____ 6

23.0 to 23.4 ____ 8

22.5 to 22.9 ____ 3

22.0 to 22.4 ____ 3

NormaL is set at 22.0 Moorepark from guidance available near contest deadline.

Good luck everyone.

M.T. Cranium

To prepare for scoring of bonus question, here are the forecasts re-arranged in order ... I am seeing hourly reports of 24 from Oak Park and Phoenix Park, 23 for Moorepark, the other picks lower (Casement and Dublin not picked hit at least 23).

Forecasts of max temp Sunday 3rd September

Cornerstonelad __________25.6 Mountdillon

Sunflower3 _____________24.6 Mullingar

Artane2002 ____________ 24.5 Mountdillon

Esposito _______________ 24.1 Shannon

Gonzo _________________23.8 Mountdillon

Pauldry ________________23.8 Claremorris

Dacogawa ______________23.7 Moorepark

Rameire _______________ 23.6 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 23.5 Moorepark

sryanbruen _____________23.5 Mountdillon 

Jpmarn ________________23.4 Moorepark

Mr Stonewall ___________ 23.4 Shannon

Adam240610 ___________ 23.3 Mountdillon

___ Con Sensus _________23.3

MrSkinner ______________23.2 Phoenix Park

Joe Public ______________ 23.2 Phoenix Park

john mac ______________ 23.2 Oak Park

Kindred Spirit ___________23.1 Mountdillon

waterways _____________ 23.0 Shannon

Appledrop ______________22.9 Oak Park

200motels _____________ 22.6 Oak Park

DOCARCH _____________ 22.6 Mountdillon

Tae Laidir ______________22.3 Oak Park

Dasa29 _______________ 22.0 Mullingar 

Bsal __________________ 22.0 Gurteen 

___ NormaL ____________22.0

____________________________________

Look for scoring of this tomorrow. It will be my labour for labour day.

DOCARCH

I think I heard (on weather after 6pm news) high was 23.8c at Oak Park. I could have misheard!

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121065058#Comment_121065058

That's what she said ok

M.T. Cranium

Contest locations _________ Not picked

Phoenix Park 24.2

Oak Park 23.8 ___________ Dublin 23.1, Casement 22.9

Moorepark 22.9 _________ Johnstown 22.0

Shannon 21.8 __________ Cork 21.6

Mullingar 21.4 __________ Markree 21.2

Gurteen 20.9 ___________

Mountdillon 20.3 ________Valentia 20.4

Claremorris 19.8 ________

(scoring to follow)

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for Bonus _ Max 3rd

As the forecasts were all in a reasonable range, I decided to score them 2 to 7 and avoid 0 or 1 scores. That meant six scoring levels among 24 forecasters, but ties somewhat distorted that outcome. For locations, Phoenix Park scores 3/3, Oak Park 2/3, and either Moorepark or Shannon scored one. Locations not selected were not an issue although several were in location points range. I gave Con and NormaL 3/3 for location.

sb in the table is "super bonus" ... oddly all the best temperature forecasts avoided the two warmest locations, nobody qualified for super bonus points so that column is voided.

As we should always have 10/10 as bonus category max, the total scores here will be adjusted as shown, keeping 3/10 as the lowest total adjusted. As superbonus failed to activate, my concept for adjustment is to add two to all scores that had a location score of 2 or 3, and one to those that did not, but I did add 2 to closest temperature forecast (Esposito) despite location score of only 1/3.

___ Outcome >> _______ 24.2 __ Phoenix Park (23.8 Oak Park) (22.9 Moorepark) (21.9 Shannon)

FORECASTER ___________ Temp _ Loc'n _________ Temp pts __ Loc'n pts ___ sb _ TOTAL ___ adjusted

Cornerstonelad __________25.6 Mountdillon _________ 3 __________ 0 __________ 3 ______ 4

Sunflower3 _____________24.6 Mullingar ___________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Artane2002 ____________ 24.5 Mountdillon __________7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Esposito _______________ 24.1 Shannon ___________ 7 __________ 1 __________ 8 ______10

Gonzo _________________23.8 Mountdillon _________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Pauldry ________________23.8 Claremorris _________ 7 __________ 0 __________ 7 ______ 8

Dacogawa ______________23.7 Moorepark __________ 6 __________ 1 __________ 7 ______ 8

Rameire _______________ 23.6 Oak Park ____________6 __________ 2 __________ 8 _____ 10

M.T. Cranium ___________ 23.5 Moorepark __________ 6 __________ 1 __________ 7 ______ 8

sryanbruen _____________23.5 Mountdillon _________6 __________ 0 __________ 6 ______ 7

Jpmarn ________________23.4 Moorepark ___________5 __________ 1 __________ 6 ______ 7

Mr Stonewall ___________ 23.4 Shannon ____________ 5 __________ 1 __________ 6 ______ 7

Adam240610 ___________ 23.3 Mountdillon __________ 5 __________ 0 __________ 5 ______ 6

___ Con Sensus _________23.3 (PP) ________________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

MrSkinner ______________23.2 Phoenix Park _________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

Joe Public ______________ 23.2 Phoenix Park _________ 5 __________ 3 __________ 8 _____ 10

john mac ______________ 23.2 Oak Park _____________ 5 __________ 2 __________ 7 ______9

Kindred Spirit ___________23.1 Mountdillon ___________ 4 __________ 0 __________ 4 ______ 5

waterways _____________ 23.0 Shannon ______________4 __________ 1 __________ 5 ______ 6

Appledrop ______________22.9 Oak Park _____________ 4 __________ 2 __________ 6 ______ 8

200motels _____________ 22.6 Oak Park _____________ 3 __________ 2 __________ 5 ______ 7

DOCARCH _____________ 22.6 Mountdillon ____________ 3 __________ 0 __________ 3 ______ 4

Tae Laidir ______________22.3 Oak Park ______________ 3 __________ 2 __________ 5 ______ 7

Dasa29 _______________ 22.0 Mullingar _____________ 2 __________ 0 __________ 2 ______ 3

Bsal __________________ 22.0 Gurteen _____________ 2__________ 0 __________ 2 ______ 3

___ NormaL ____________22.0 (PP, OP) _______________ 2 __________ 3 __________ 5 ______ 7

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