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Why haven't I been restricted?

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  • 01-08-2023 3:08am
    #1
    Swaine
    Registered Users Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭


    Set up a Ladbrokes account in February of this year and to date have overall profit of €15990. I'm curious as to why they haven't reacted to this. Every month there's been massive profit and a huge amount of withdrawls. PP shut me down at around the €4k profit mark.

    Has anyone else had this level of success with no comeback?



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    #2
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users Posts: 8,167 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    thanks for informing us, we shall seek to rectify this immediately



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    #3
    TinyMuffin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,596 ✭✭✭TinyMuffin


    Any tips. Your obviously a winner.



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    #4
    JustJoe7240
    Registered Users Posts: 1,438 ✭✭✭JustJoe7240


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058307460/why-havent-i-been-restricted

    Don’t worry, You’re not being left out. Bookies use database software like tableau to make such reports.They have quants working on this sort of thing.

    The way bookies make their money is they take what they consider to be the true probability of an event happening and they slice a small bit off the odds. This is called the overround. For example, Say a coin toss. the odds of a heads are 50:50 I.e evens. By offering odds of say 10/11 on a heads or a tails, They can guarantee over a large sample space, That they will make a profit. It’s called the law of large numbers.

    The reason they haven’t restricted you is that they’re happy with your business, Eg you’re not jumping on big prices before they move, Or arbing with another bookie, Or jumping on with a lot of restricted accounts (Mostly Eastern European bots). Basically they’re confident that If you are to keep punting, You will inevitably give it all back. Bookies don’t just close accounts because they’re winning. If they did, They wouldn’t get any of it back.

    As a matter of interest, What’s your amount staked on that 16k?

    As for PP closing you after 4k, You were more than likely jumping on with some bad business.



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    #5
    Swaine
    Registered Users Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭Swaine


    It’s about €140k overall stakes with €156k returns over the course of about 6 months.

    I stake high on favorites mostly but the odd good price is in there. Dublin to beat Kerry, €2k on this. €1k on Vondrousova to win Wimbledon final at 11/8 I think it was. Big snooker and darts better also.

    Just odd they haven’t restricted me, I’ve clearly shown I’m a long term winner.



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    #6
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,156 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120925774#Comment_120925774

    Six months isn't long term, getting restricted/account closed by pp is no claim to fame, they seem to be doing that to anyone that has a good run, really stacking the deck, their odds are gone very poor anyway,I think the advertising is paying off and people aren't shopping around enough.



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    #7
    ittakestwo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,642 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    It is nothing to with winning that gets you restricted/shut down. It is to with getting better odds than what they should have been. You could lose all your bets and still get restricted.

    Likewise you could win all your bets and still not be restricted.

    Most money on an event will go on the day of it or just the hour before it. Particularly in horse racing. So if a bookie puts out odds for an event this weekend probably midweek there has not been much beting on it. If i am good bettor and see good odds and stick money down a few days before and am constantly getting better odds than the odds at the starting then i will get restricted even if the bet loses.



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