August 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for August 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 15.1.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the lowest daily maximum at any of the regular reporting sites on the met-ie website.

M.T. Cranium _________15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 085 __ 13.7

NormaL _____________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 14.5

Deadline 03z Tues 1st Aug, usual late penalties apply.

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 15.6 _ 26.3 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 14.2

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________14.9 _ 24.1 _ 2.2 _ 125 _ 090 __ 13.1

dasa29

Dasa29 _________15.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 090 __ 13.5

200motels

200motels---------- 14.8 _ 23.2 _ 2.5 _ 129 _ 092 __ 13.3

esposito

esposito _________15.3_ 27.2 _ 3.4 _ 130 _ 085 __ 14.6

Gonzo

Gonzo _________14.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.1 _ 128 _ 082 __ 12.4

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____________ 14.9 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 90 __ 13.5

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad________15.5__27.1___2.9__125___88____14.00

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.3 ___ 25.4 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 95 ___ 13.1

pauldry

Pauldry___ 15.1___ 26.1___ 2.8 ___ 198___ 101 ___ 12.4

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 15.6 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 95 _ 125 __ 14.1

Joe Public

Joe Public _________15.5 _ 29.3 _4.8_ 120 _ 089 __ 15.4

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________15.3 _ 27.2 _ 0.8 _ 093 _ 108 _ 14.6

rameire

Rameire _________15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 155 _ 080 __ 11.8

waterways

waterways ___ 15.2 ___ 26.8 ___ 2.0 ___ 117 ___ 106 ___ 12.1

Tae laidir

Tae Laidir ___________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.3 _ 114 _ 98 __ 14.0

dacogawa

15.5 _ 29.6 _ 3.1 _ 145 _ 096 __ 13.8

John mac

john mac_____________ 16.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 98 __ 13.7

mrskinner

Skinner____15.5____25.6____3.1____105____85____14.5

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  _________15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 145 _ 095 __ 13.1

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall 15.7___26.8___3.4____85___105___14.2

appledrop

Appledrop____15.5____24.7_____2.5____135___90___13.2

adam240610

adam240610____________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 90 _ 118 __ 13.8

M.T. Cranium

I had a question about the BONUS, one forecaster (and perhaps more?) thought it applied to precip (as in lowest value of max precip) but I had intended it to apply to MAX temps, as in lowest daily maximum temperature. If you gave a value applying to PRC and wish to revise it, send me a p.m. or post a new value. Thanks. My wording was not as clear as it should have been there. I can't easily tell who might be thinking of a PRC value to send specific messages.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2023

please see previous post for info on Bonus, adjustments can be made if desired __

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Low max

john mac _____________16.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 13.7

Tae Laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.3 _ 114 _ 098 ___ 14.0

Mr Stonewall __________15.7 _ 26.8 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 14.2

Jpmarn _____________15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 13.1

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 26.3 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 14.2

Bsal _________________15.6 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 095 _ 125 ___ 14.1

dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 29.6 _ 3.1 _ 145 _ 096 ___ 13.8

Joe Public ____________ 15.5 _ 29.3 _ 4.8 _ 120 _ 089 ___ 15.4

Cornerstonelad ________15.5 _ 27.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 14.0

Mr Skinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.6 _ 3.1 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.5

Appledrop ____________15.5 _ 24.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 13.2

Dasa29 ______________15.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 13.5

___ Con Sensus _______15.5 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 123 _ 091 ___ 13.6

Rameire _____________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 11.8

M.T. Cranium _________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 13.7

esposito _____________ 15.3 _ 27.2 _ 3.4 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 14.6

DOCARCH ____________15.3 _ 27.2 _ 0.8 _ 093 _ 108 ___ 14.6

Kindred Spirit _________15.3 _ 25.4 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 13.1

waterways ___________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 2.0 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 12.1

adam240610__________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 118 ___ 13.8

NormaL _____________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

Pauldry _____________ 15.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 198 _ 101 ___ 12.4

Sunflower3 __________ 14.9 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 13.5

sryanbruen __________ 14.9 _ 24.1 _ 2.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 13.1

Gonzo ______________ 14.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.1 _ 128 _ 082 ___ 12.4

200motels ___________ 14.8 _ 23.2 _ 2.5 _ 129 _ 092 ___ 13.3

appledrop

Sweet Jaysus it's grim out there, lashing all day and currently on 13 degrees.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get our lowest Max minimum for month today.

M.T. Cranium

16.6 at Sherkin Island was the low max for 1st.

M.T. Cranium

2nd _ Oak Park and Valentia at 16.7 failed to replace the low max of 16.6 from previous day.

(will track daily but only report on close calls or new low max, anything over 17 will not be worth a report)

appledrop

It must have warmed up in evening yesterday M.T because it was certainly no higher than 13 or 14 degrees all during day in Dublin.

appledrop

Max of just 13.9 at Knock yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 14.7 after four days and may be around 14.5 after five. It will be increasing later this coming week. PRC may not be as high as one might expect, given the location of our eleven stations, but the first week average will no doubt be at least 200%.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT 14.6 (-0.9 rel to normal).

MAX, MIN not tracked yet.

PRC 180% (range 65% at Shannon to 324% at Ballyhaise and 496% at Dublin not in our 11-station grid (Casement 295%).

SUN 74%

low max 13.9

pauldry

26.6c provisional new MAX at Shannon

Tae laidir

Confirmed

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.8, second week average 17.0 (1.6 above normal).

MAX 26.6 MIN 7.9

PRC now est 125% with second week relatively dry 70% (Cork had no report in the Ag Met).

SUN has stayed in similar range, now 75 to 77 per cent, despite brighter weather around Dublin this week, once again, Cork data not available, the average otherwise for the week was 80% and perhaps a bit lower counting Cork.

Lowest max continues to be 13.9 with no obvious challengers lined up in the near term.

Tae laidir

New Min of 7.4 at Markee Castle.

M.T. Cranium

Our three highest MIN predictions were 4.8 (Joe Public), 4.5 (Artane2002), and 4.0 (dasa29).

M.T. Cranium

Not sure why Cork has been dropped from the Ag Met weekly report, I assumed it was missing data, but a check from 8th to 14th shows all daily reports are complete. This will only have one negative impact on the contest (or my workload), in that I will need to check Cork daily data or estimate it, to keep track of SUN and PRC stats -- waiting to see if Cork is also dropped from any Monthly Summary report graphs that I use as a check against my estimates.

Tae laidir

Temp is on Monthly data, if that's any use. PRC still missing since 11th.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

... Cork data has resumed normal service ...

IMT on 16.2, third week rather warm, averaged 16.9 (1.7 above normal). Seems likely to start a slow fall soon, think it may end up around 15.7.

MAX 26.6, MIN 7.4 _ lots of room for MIN to fall a bit before it makes any difference to scoring. MAX probably set now.

PRC up to 140% with third week quite wet in south, near average further north (average 170%). I think PRC will drop a little and end up closer to 120%. The amount already measured guarantees a minimum outcome of 90%.

SUN about 82%, the third week failed to reach normal but was brighter than previous week at 92%. SUN could improve a bit more but I expect it would end up around 85%.

Low max still 13.9, some slight chance of a lower value indicated.

DOCARCH

Markree Castle reporting 5c atm.

Tae laidir

Yes, 5.0 reported.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 15.9, fourth week average 15.0 (0.2 above normal). Likely to finish on 15.7.

MAX 26.6, MIN 5.0. ... Max is probably done, MIN will require some clear breaks tonight and even then may be set.

PRC 123% with fourth week at 71% of normal. Seems likely to end up close to 125%, possibly 130%. 110% is already a guaranteed outcome if no rain fell but quite a bit is predicted for late Wed and early Thursday.

SUN now 89% thanks to a sunny week in southwest and near normal elsewhere, average was 110% for the week. May fall back a bit now. Also needs a check and unfortunately MS not due until 4th.

The high max remains 13.9.

Will be posting a September contest thread soon. Will have a shorter range bonus partly because I plan a two-week absence from the internet mid-month so I won't be able to keep an eye on data.

M.T. Cranium

IMT has finished on 15.7.

MAX 26.6 and MIN 5.0.

PRC 118% of normal

SUN (est) 90%

low max 13.9 C

Will post some preliminary scoring later today, unfortunately we now wait to Monday 4th for confirmation of any of these estimates.

By the way, if you entered the multi-forum 2023 hurricane season contest, our contingent is doing well, I think, some of the forecasts look close to a reasonable extrapolation of the current count of 10/3/2.

Tae laidir

Some good scores this month (for a change!)

M.T. Cranium

Scoring estimates for August 2023

___ Estimates ________ 15.7 _26.6 _5.0 _118 _090 ___ 13.9

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _ BONUS __ TOTALS

john mac _____________21 _ 16 _ 04*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 71

Tae Laidir ____________ 24 _ 06 _ 09*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 71

Mr Stonewall __________25 _ 18 _ 10*_ 04 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 73

Jpmarn _____________25 _ 19 _ 11*_ 06 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 76

Artane2002 ___________24 _ 17 _ 17*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 91

Bsal _________________24 _ 13 _ 05*_ 07 _ 03 ___ 10 _____ 62

dacogawa ____________ 23 _ 00 _ 08*_ 06 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 56

Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 00 _ 20*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 05 _____ 72

Cornerstonelad ________23 _ 15 _ 05*_ 13 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 76

Mr Skinner __________ 23 _ 10 _ 08*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 68

Appledrop ____________23 _ 01 _ 04*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 06 _____ 53

Dasa29 ______________23 _ 00 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 66

___ Con Sensus _______23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 80

Rameire _____________ 22 _ 19 _ 02*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 58

M.T. Cranium _________ 21 _ 09 _ 04*_ 09 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 62

esposito _____________ 21 _ 14 _ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 71

DOCARCH ____________21 _ 14 _ 01*_ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _____ 56

Kindred Spirit _________21 _ 08 _ 06*_ 06 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 56

waterways ___________ 20 _ 18 _ 02*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 66

adam240610__________19 _ 16 _ 02*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 10 _____ 57

NormaL _____________ 19 _ 16 _ 02*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 61

Pauldry _____________ 19 _ 15 _ 05*_ 00 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 52

Sunflower3 __________ 17 _ 19 _ 06*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 74

sryanbruen __________ 17 _ 00 _ 03*_ 13 _ 10 ___ 06 _____ 49

Gonzo ______________ 16 _ 02 _ 08*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 51

200motels ___________16 _ 00 _ 04*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 48

=============================

*MIN scored from reduced minimum progression; Joe Public had the "hammer" so your boost is half of the differential from raw score to ordinary minimum progression (set at 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 but edited due to ties to

20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 ... scores generated were 20 17 14 etc, and mostly half of those)

MAX did not merit a boost despite a few zero scores (minimum progression requires either more than a third of raw scores zero or the progression of raw scores significantly below the minimum progression standard). I partly made up the generally low scoring in MAX-MIN by setting the bonus range to 4 to 10 as there were no really erroneous low max calls.

This table will be edited on 4th or declared to be final but reprinted in scoring order.

Annual scoring summaries to follow, same comment applies re later adjustments.

I will hold off with full pop-cork congrats until we know for certain what the scores are. But there is one at 91 from our contest leader Artane2002 (in best 7 of 8 format now). Con Sensus piled up 80 and two forecasters (JPmarn and cornerstonelad) are currently on 76. Good luck with the adjustments everyone.

=============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Low max

john mac _____________16.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 13.7

Tae Laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.3 _ 114 _ 098 ___ 14.0

Mr Stonewall __________15.7 _ 26.8 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 14.2

Jpmarn _____________15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 13.1

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 26.3 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 14.2

Bsal _________________15.6 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 095 _ 125 ___ 14.1

dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 29.6 _ 3.1 _ 145 _ 096 ___ 13.8

Joe Public ____________ 15.5 _ 29.3 _ 4.8 _ 120 _ 089 ___ 15.4

Cornerstonelad ________15.5 _ 27.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 14.0

Mr Skinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.6 _ 3.1 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.5

Appledrop ____________15.5 _ 24.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 13.2

Dasa29 ______________15.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 13.5

___ Con Sensus _______15.5 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 123 _ 091 ___ 13.6

Rameire _____________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 11.8

M.T. Cranium _________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 13.7

esposito _____________ 15.3 _ 27.2 _ 3.4 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 14.6

DOCARCH ____________15.3 _ 27.2 _ 0.8 _ 093 _ 108 ___ 14.6

Kindred Spirit _________15.3 _ 25.4 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 13.1

waterways ___________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 2.0 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 12.1

adam240610__________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 118 ___ 13.8

NormaL _____________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

Pauldry _____________ 15.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 198 _ 101 ___ 12.4

Sunflower3 __________ 14.9 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 13.5

sryanbruen __________ 14.9 _ 24.1 _ 2.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 13.1

Gonzo ______________ 14.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.1 _ 128 _ 082 ___ 12.4

200motels ___________ 14.8 _ 23.2 _ 2.5 _ 129 _ 092 ___ 13.3

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring January to August 2023

Includes preliminary estimated August scoring, subject to later adjustments. Last update for table order being total score, after September, it will become best 7/9. Current table includes best 7/8 so scores will only adjust by a small amount. Table to be edited or confirmed on 4 September.

AUG _JUL ranks total score //

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER __ J __F __M __A __M __J __J __A __TOTAL __ Best 7/8 (rank) ((prev rank 6/7))

_ 00.7 (00.8)_ Con Sensus __ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _60 _80 _ 535 ___ 477 _ (1.8) _ (5.4)

_ 01 (04) _Sunflower3 ______47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _73 _74 __ 513 ___474 _ ( 2 ) _ (t2)

_ 02 (03) _M.T. Cranium_____67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _89 _62 __ 506 ___ 462 _ ( t3 ) _(t2)

_ 03 (02) _adam240610 ____ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _67 _57 __ 502 ___ 445 _ ( 7 ) _ (7)

_ 04 (06) _tae laidir ________38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 _71 __ 500 ___ 462 _ ( t3 ) _(6)

_t05 (01) _sryanbruen ______46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _55 _49 __ 495 ___ 449 _ ( 6 ) _ (t2)

_t05 (10) _Artane2002 (7/8)_ 50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _68 _91 __ 495 ___ 495 _ ( 1 ) _ (1)

_ 07 (05) _Kindred Spirit ____58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _37 _56 __ 492 ___ 455 _ ( 5 ) _ (5)

_ 08 (t07) _DOCARCH ______77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _45 _56 __ 471 ___ 426 _ (t10) _(9)

(8.3)_(9.4) _ NormaL _____67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _65 _61 __ 470 ___ 432 _ (8.8)_(t9)

_ 09 (t07) _Appledrop ______53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _56 _53 __ 468 ___ 435 _ ( 8 ) _ (8)

_ 10 (09)_ Gonzo _________ 46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _84 _51 __ 464 ___ 420 _ (12) _ (10)

_ 11 (13) _Bsal ___________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _62 _62 __ 454 ___ 412 _ (t15)_ (t15)

_ 12 (12) _Dacogawa ______ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _51 _56 __ 451 ___ 412 _ (t15) _ (13)

_ 13 (11) _Pauldry ________ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _56 _52 __ 448 ___ 400 _ (19) _ (t17)

_ 14 (15) _ waterways _____ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _68 _66 __ 442 ___ 415 _ (14) _ (t17)

_ 15 (14)_200 motels ______ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 _48 __ 436 ___ 398 _ (20) _ (t15)

_ 16 (17) _MrSkinner _______25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _47 _68 __ 433 ___ 408 _ (17) _ (19)

_t17 (t18) _john mac (7/8)___58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _51 _71 __ 431 ___ 431 _( 9 ) _ (t11)

_t17 (20) _Cornerstonelad ___49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 _76 __ 431 ___ 406 _ (18) _ (20)

_ 19 (16) _Rameire ________ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _69 _58 __ 428 ___ 418 _(13) _ (t11)

_t20 (t18) _Dasa29 ________61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _44 _66 __ 426 ___ 384 _ (22) _ (21)

_t20 (21)_ Jpmarn _________61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _70 _76 __ 426 ___ 426 _ (t10)_ (t15)

_ 22 (22) _Joe Public _______46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _41 _72 __ 419 ___ 378 _ (23) _ (23)

_ 23 (23) _ Mr.stonewall ____45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _57 _61 _73 __ 416 ___ 386 _ (21) _ (22)

_ 24 (24)_esposito (6/8) ____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _50 _71 __ 326 ___ 326 _ (24) _ (24)

(above score for esposito will compare more favorably after two scores dropped from rest of field in Sep update)

================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

_ 25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/8)___ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---_ --- _ --- __ 234

_ 26 (26)_Rebelbrowser(1/8)_ 78__--- __---__--- __--- __--- _ --- _ --- __ 78

_ 27 (27) _ JCX BXC (1/8) __ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 65 _ --- _ --- _ 65

_ 28 (28) _Aah yes (1/8) ___ --- __--- __---__--- __ 60 __--- _ --- _ --- __ 60

_ 29 (29) _ sdanseo (1/8) __ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 59 _ --- _ --- __ 59

_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/8) ___ 58 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ --- _ --- _ --- __ 58

_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/7) ____--- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ --- __ 51 _ --- _ --- __ 51

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals January -August ____

FORECASTER ___ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible ____200 _160 _160 _120 _ 80 __ 80 ____ 800

_ Con Sensus ___ 142 _110 _ 85 _ 79 _ 62 __ 57 ____ 535

Sunflower3 _____144 _ 92 _ 85 _ 77 _ 60 __ 55 ____ 513

M.T. Cranium ____146 _ 56 _ 98 _ 83 _ 64 __ 59 ____ 506

adam240610____ 148 _ 89 _ 87 _ 73 _ 54 __ 54 ____ 502 (505)

Tae laidir________163 _ 69 _ 96 _ 56 _ 59 __ 57 ____ 500

sryanbruen _____ 140 _ 85 _ 89 _ 80 _ 57 __ 48 _____495 (499)

Artane2002 (7/8) _129 _ 93 _ 96 _ 77 _ 55 __ 47 ____ 495 (497)

Kindred Spirit ____133 _ 98 _ 84 _ 66 _ 52 __ 59 ____ 492

DOCARCH _______117 _ 93 _ 81 _ 80 _ 57 __ 43 _____471

Appledrop _______147 _ 56 _ 78 _ 76 _ 68 __ 43 ____ 468

_ NormaL ______105 _ 95 _ 78 _ 79 _ 56 __ 57 ____ 470

Gonzo __________141 _ 81 _ 55 _ 78 _ 55 __ 56 ____ 464 (466)

Bsal ___________ 135 _ 81 _ 61 _ 75 _ 55 __ 56 ____ 454 (463)

Dacogawa ______ 148 _ 71 _ 60 _ 59 _ 62 __ 51 ____ 451

Pauldry _________148 _ 82 _ 49 _ 81 _ 54 __ 34 ____ 448

waterways ______ 116 _ 89 _ 61 _ 63 _ 63 __ 50 ____ 441

200 motels ______ 137 _ 69 _ 67 _ 79 _ 57 __ 41 ____ 436 (450)

MrSkinner _______141 _ 71 _ 66 _ 68 _ 48 __ 41 ____ 433 (435)

john mac (7/8) ___114 _ 80 _ 77 _ 70 _ 51 __ 40 ____ 431 (432)

Cornerstonelad ___138 _ 91 _ 59 _ 60 _ 48 __ 52 ____ 431 (448)

Rameire ________ 129 _ 81 _ 61 _ 72 _ 57 __ 56 ____ 428 (456)

Jpmarn ___(7/8)__121 _ 59 _ 85 _ 65 _ 50 __ 46 ____ 426

Dasa29 _________ 124 _ 55 _ 63 _ 70 _ 60 __ 54 ____ 426

Joe Public _______137 _ 81 _ 53 _ 71 _ 54 __ 27 ____ 419 (423) 

Mr.stonewall _____132 _ 68 _ 78 _ 38 _ 50 __ 52 ____ 416 (418)

esposito __ (6/8)__106 _ 73 _ 24 _ 53 _ 40 __ 32 ____ 326 (328)

WolfeEire (4/8) ____61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

Rebelbrowser (1/8)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78

JCX BXC ___ (1/8)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65

aah yes____(1/8)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)

sdanseo ___(1/8) _ 14 _ 14 _ 18 _ 01 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 59

Danno ____ (1/8) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58

Tazio _____ (1/8) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to July totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)

IMT _ three tied for second place, no third place awarded.

MAX _ Con Sensus would be first alone. NormaL would be second alone. Two forecasters tied for second, no third place awarded.

MIN _ Two forecasters tied for second, no third place awarded.

PRC _ Two forecasters tied for third.

SUN _ Three ranks without ties.

BONUS _ Two forecasters tied for first, one third place awarded. Normal and Con Sensus would be tied with that third place score.

Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============

TABLES WILL BE UPDATED ON 4 SEP 2023

FOUR SEASONS CONTEST UPDATE WILL BE PROVIDED BY 5 SEP.

DOCARCH

Slipping! 😥😂

M.T. Cranium

Four seasons contest -- Summer update

The contest awards ten points for top total score in each season, and seven points for second, six for third, etc, down to one point for 8th to 12th places, and anyone else who gets at least 170 points (if applicable, was not in winter as 170 was 12th and in spring 12th was 166). The following table of scoring shows the winter segment results, and adds the spring (March-April-May) points, for total points in the final column.

Summer totals and points subject to later adjustments (August not settled yet)

FORECASTER ___ Winter TOTAL_Pts _[]_ Spring TOTAL_Pts _[]_ Summer TOTAL_Points ____ TOTAL POINTS so far

adam240610 _________208 __ 10 ______ 184 ___ 3 _______196 ___ 4 _____ 17

___ Con Sensus ______ 190 ___ 5.0 ____ 188 ___ 3.7 ______ 208 __ 5.8 ____ 14.5

Artane2002 __________179 ___ 2 ______149* __0 _______ 225 ___10 ____ 12

sryanbruen __________ 196 ___ 6 ______ 193 ___ 5 _______180 ___ 1 _____ 12

Sunflower3 __________ 172 ___ 1 ______ 195 ___ 6 _______202 ___ 5 _____ 12

Tae laidir ____________142 ___ 0 ______ 220 ___10_______178 ___ 1 _____ 11

Kindred Spirit ________ 180 ___ 4 ______ 190 ___ 4 _______ 170 ___ 1 ______9

DOCARCH ___________ 204 ___ 7 ______168 ___ 1 _______ 159 ___ 0 ______ 8

john mac ____________146 ___ 0 ______ 204 ___ 7 _______ 122*___0 ______ 7

Jpmarn _____________168 ___ 0 _______101*___0 _______ 215 ___ 7 ______ 7

__ NormaL __________ 164 ___ 0 ______ 195 __ 6.0 _______170 ___ 1 _____ 7.0

Gonzo ______________180 ___ 4 _______170 ___ 1 _______ 179 ___ 1 ______ 6

M.T. Cranium ________167 ___ 0 ________159 ___ 0 _______ 210 ___ 6 ______ 6

WolfeEire ___________ 190 ___ 5 _______111*___ 0 ______ -- -- ___ -- ______ 5

200motels _________ 175 ___ 1 _______ 172 ___ 2 _______ 149 ___ 0 ______ 3

Appledrop __________ 170 ___ 1 _______ 170 ___ 1 _______ 181 ___ 1 ______ 3

Dacogawa __________ 175 ___ 1 _______ 144 ___ 0 _______ 186 ___ 1 ______ 2

waterways __________126 ___ 0 ________170 ___ 1 _______ 193 ___ 3 ______ 4

esposito ____________171 ___ 1 ________ 45** _ 0 _______ 170 ___ 1 ______ 2

Rameire _____________78*^_ 0 ________166 ___ 1 _______ 174 ___ 1 ______ 2

Mr stonewall ________ 139 ___ 0 ________150 ___ 0 _______ 191 ___ 2 ______ 2

Bsal _______________160 ___ 0 ________156 ___ 0 _______ 178 ___ 1 ______ 1

Pauldry ____________ 147 ___ 0 ________164 ___ 0 _______ 172 ___ 1 ______ 1

MrSkinner __________ 141 ___ 0 ________159 ___ 0 _______ 180 ___ 1 ______ 1

Cornerstonelad ______ 110*___0 ________139 ___ 0 _______ 181 ___ 1 ______ 1

Joe Public __________ 155 ___ 0 ________158 ___ 0 _______ 167 ___ 0 ______ 0

Dasa29 ____________ 147 ___ 0 ________150 ___ 0 _______ 161 ___ 0 ______ 0

_______________________

_ * played only two of three contests

_** played one contest (only reported if contest points already scored)

_*^ played Jan-Feb but large late penalty (10 points Jan, 68 Feb)

=======================

Adam240610 can win with a third place or better finish in autumn 2023.

M.T. Cranium

So, true confessions, I totally forgot to look up the August data that was estimated for the scoring. In so doing, I discovered that there are now 1991-2020 normals available. The MS states they are using 1981-2010 to calculate the precip anomalies, and the Monthly summary agreed with my own calculations from monthly data, and that value was 118%. We also had MAX and MIN correct at 26.6 and 5.0. IMT is not checked again after monthly data reveals it on 1st (15.7). That leaves SUN ... first thing I discovered was that 1991-2020 averages do not include several locations we use, whereas 1981-2010 normals still available do cover them all. So for now, I will continue to use those for SUN and let the process continue for everything else, most of which does not reference normals.

So for SUN, the actual value was 86% of normal. That will require a slight adjustment of SUN scores by one point for almost everyone. In most but not all cases that was down, but a few went up or remained same since 86 rather than 85 does not change every score (not everybody predicts a multiple of 5% like most of us do).

Confirmed scoring for August 2023

___ Final values ______ 15.7 _26.6 _5.0 _118 _086 ___ 13.9

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _ BONUS __ TOTALS

Artane2002 ___________24 _ 17 _ 17*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 90

___ Con Sensus _______ 23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 79

Cornerstonelad ________ 23 _ 15 _ 05*_ 13 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 76

Jpmarn _____________25 _ 19 _ 11*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 75

Sunflower3 ___________ 17 _ 19 _ 06*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 73

Mr Stonewall __________25 _ 18 _ 10*_ 04 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 72

esposito _____________ 21 _ 14 _ 10*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 06 _____ 72

Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 00 _ 20*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 71

john mac _____________21 _ 16 _ 04*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 10 _____ 70

Tae Laidir ____________ 24 _ 06 _ 09*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 10 _____ 70

Mr Skinner __________ 23 _ 10 _ 08*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 69

Dasa29 ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 14*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 65

waterways ___________ 20 _ 18 _ 02*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 65

M.T. Cranium _________ 21 _ 09 _ 04*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 10 _____ 63

Bsal _________________24 _ 13 _ 05*_ 07 _ 02 ___ 10 _____ 61

NormaL _____________ 19 _ 16 _ 02*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 60

Rameire _____________ 22 _ 19 _ 02*_ 03 _ 09 ___ 04 _____ 59

adam240610__________19 _ 16 _ 02*_ 06 _ 04 ___ 10 _____ 57

dacogawa ____________23 _ 00 _ 08*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 55

DOCARCH ____________21 _ 14 _ 01*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 55

Kindred Spirit _________21 _ 08 _ 06*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 55

Appledrop ____________23 _ 01 _ 04*_ 09 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 52

Gonzo _______________16 _ 02 _ 08*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 52

Pauldry ______________19 _ 15 _ 05*_ 00 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 51

sryanbruen ___________17 _ 00 _ 03*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 48

200motels ___________ 16 _ 00 _ 04*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 47

=============================

*MIN scored from reduced minimum progression; Joe Public had the "hammer" so your boost is half of the differential from raw score to ordinary minimum progression (set at 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 but edited due to ties to

20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 ... scores generated were 20 17 14 etc, and mostly half of those)

MAX did not merit a boost despite a few zero scores (minimum progression requires either more than a third of raw scores zero or the progression of raw scores significantly below the minimum progression standard). I partly made up the generally low scoring in MAX-MIN by setting the bonus range to 4 to 10 as there were no really erroneous low max calls.

Congrats to Artane2002 for a very good score of 90, hon mention to cornerstonelad (76) and JPmarn (75).

=============================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Low max

john mac _____________16.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 13.7

Tae Laidir ____________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 3.3 _ 114 _ 098 ___ 14.0

Mr Stonewall __________15.7 _ 26.8 _ 3.4 _ 085 _ 105 ___ 14.2

Jpmarn _____________15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 13.1

Artane2002 ___________15.6 _ 26.3 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 14.2

Bsal _________________15.6 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 095 _ 125 ___ 14.1

dacogawa ____________ 15.5 _ 29.6 _ 3.1 _ 145 _ 096 ___ 13.8

Joe Public ____________ 15.5 _ 29.3 _ 4.8 _ 120 _ 089 ___ 15.4

Cornerstonelad ________15.5 _ 27.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 14.0

Mr Skinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.6 _ 3.1 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.5

Appledrop ____________15.5 _ 24.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 13.2

Dasa29 ______________15.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 13.5

___ Con Sensus _______15.5 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 123 _ 091 ___ 13.6

Rameire _____________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 11.8

M.T. Cranium _________ 15.3 _ 27.7 _ 2.5 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 13.7

esposito _____________ 15.3 _ 27.2 _ 3.4 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 14.6

DOCARCH ____________15.3 _ 27.2 _ 0.8 _ 093 _ 108 ___ 14.6

Kindred Spirit _________15.3 _ 25.4 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 13.1

waterways ___________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 2.0 _ 117 _ 106 ___ 12.1

adam240610__________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 118 ___ 13.8

NormaL _____________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

Pauldry _____________ 15.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 198 _ 101 ___ 12.4

Sunflower3 __________ 14.9 _ 26.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 13.5

sryanbruen __________ 14.9 _ 24.1 _ 2.2 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 13.1

Gonzo ______________ 14.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.1 _ 128 _ 082 ___ 12.4

200motels ___________ 14.8 _ 23.2 _ 2.5 _ 129 _ 092 ___ 13.3