Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Emigration

Options
  • 04-04-2023 4:21am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,949 ✭✭✭


    Is there any figures for current rates of emigration? Anecdotally it would seem that there's an awful lot leaving over the past year or planning on leaving soon.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,170 ✭✭✭Wompa1



    59,600 is what the CSO recorded in April 2022. Which was about a 10% increase year-on-year but there was the pandemic impact still in 2021 which maybe could account for some of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,216 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The CSO has data on this. They publish annual population and migration estimates, usually for the year to April. The estimate comes out in August or September.

    As you'd expect, the most recently published estimate is for the year to April 2022, published last August. Key findings are here. The takeaway:

    Immigration over the twelve months: 120,700. Of those:

    • 28,900 returning Irish nationals
    • 24,300 other EU nationals
    • 4,500 UK nationals
    • 28,000 Ukrainian nationals.
    • I calculate 35,000 rest of the world.

    Emigration over the 12 months: 59,600. No breakdown of the emigration figure by nationality is given. But we are told that there was net immigration of Irish nationals of 1,300, from which we can calculate that 27,600 Irish nationals emigrated.

    Net immigration: 61,100.

    There was a rise in emigration: 59,600 in the twelve months versus 54,000 in the previous 12 months.

    Note that emigration means leaving, with the intention of usually residing abroad for at least 12 months; immigration has the converse meaning. So someone going to the UK to do a postgraduate degree, or posted to a job abroad for a year or two, is counted as an emigrant even if they fully intend to return; similarly someone coming to Ireland to study or because of an employment posting that will last 12 months or more is an immigrant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Nowadays people always say they are leaving, but more come home than leave. And not that many emigrate anyway. Some on 1 years Visas to Oz etc do stay longer than 1 years. Usually they come home too though. Very few stay.

    Now back in the 80's, most of the 90's you would not see people from your class for years and years, if ever again. Now That was emigration. Cant remember any further back but im sure it was even worse then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    It's still emigration if they leave for a few years. Irish people are used to the to and fro more than most countries for sure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Yes it is. You are correct. But not nearly what emigration used to be like before the mid 90s. Its not even comparable. A family member getting on the ferry would have all the rest of the family there crying because they might not see them for a decade. If someone went to the states there was the very real possibility you would never see them again. Things are so much better now.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    The cries of doom from some that ireland is currently emptying of Irish people is bulls**t

    Everyone I know done a stint of travel in early 20/30 around the World and then home to settle down etc. That’s not chnaged and shouldn’t really as travel add hugely to people. Of course some stayed and set up home overseas but that is the minority.

    Some will leave, some will stay. That’s the way it’s been since the 80s when nearly everyone left



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,216 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Yup. Births of Irish citizens exceed deaths of Irish citizens, and immigration of Irish citizens exceeds emigration of Irish citizens. The country is not emptying itself of Irish people; quite the reverse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,614 ✭✭✭WrenBoy


    Hopefully that is true but I've become wary of such data, from other datasets I've looked into recently when you drill down into it isn't all as it seems. Could just be a case of once bitten though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,100 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Why don't you share these datasets and your analysis with us ?

    I for one would have confidence in what I read from the CSO.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,159 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    Note that these data are estimates.

    We don't ask people in airports whether they are migrating or not.

    The actual migration figures aren't known until the Census.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,159 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    CSO infographic



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,159 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    As well as the annual estimates, see above, there is also Census data.

    Here is the preliminary Census 2022

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censusofpopulation2022-preliminaryresults/






  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭donaghs


    Everything I've read says Ireland's birth rate is at an all time low. Less than 1.63 now. More or less dropping since the 1960s. And apparently still on a downward trend. The typical replacement rate for UK and Ireland is 2.1 birth per woman, last seen in Ireland about 1991?



    As mentioned above, immigration from different sources is sufficient to actually be pushing up the population at a rate unprecedented in the last 150 years.




  • Registered Users Posts: 26,216 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Nitpick: Your chart seems to have Ireland at 2.1 or thereabouts as recently as 2010.

    Yeah, long-term replacement rate is generally reckoned to be about 2.1 for any society. But that's long-term; in the short and medium term quite big divergences (both ways) are consistent with replacement. A fertility rate of, to pick a figure out of the air, 1.6 is sufficient for replacement if the generation that is of childbearing age is significantly larger than the generation above it. If the fertility rate remains at 1.6 then, in another generation, it won't be sufficient. But these things are very long-tailed.

    OP is asking about short-term trends — is the emigration rate going up now? And is the Irish population falling now? No, it's rising (as your own chart shows. If fertility rates remain unchanged from what they are now then (depending on what happens with migration, of course) at some point in the future it will level off and start to fall and no doubt with more data we could model when that point will be. But of course fertility rates won't remain unchanged long term; they never do. So while there is potential for population decline in the future, it's not locked in. And the population is not declining now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Yes I agree. I remember those times pretty well myself.

    A large number of people came back, even back in the 1920,30s, 40s,50s and 60s etc. Yoi wouldn't know it unless you talked to them, many of that gen also spent some time overseas. Also many never came back. I'm a long term emigrant myself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Emigration nowadays is not like it was in the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. Most people are emigrating nowadays for the experience rather than having to emigrate because there were no jobs etc. back then.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    How do you know this? I emigrated because it was either that or the dole. Damned if we do and damned if we don't.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Guildenstern


    FFG establishment like to present it as a rite of passage, not much to see here etc, but my own experience locally, it's necessity. Medical professionals, teachers, even construction workers. The grass is greener elsewhere. Go speak to those in their 20s/30s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Plenty of jobs nowadays if people are willing to work. That wasn't always the case in the 70's and 80's and even into the early 90's. We pretty much have full employment (economic full employment is considered to be 4%).

    Unemployment was 17% in 1986. It was 4.2% last June. It's 4.3% this year.

    Realistically the need to emigrate isn't there like it used to be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    The majority are emigrating to see the World. Yes some people leave because they can't get work here. Some people leave because they want to work overseas. It is a mixture

    But if you listen to some people go on they describe Ireland as if everyone is having to leave which is not true.

    When my parents grew up they had no option, both wanted to stay in Ireland but they couldn't. Maybe that was the situation for you but the percentage in that scenario is tiny compared to years ago.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    They're not. They're leaving because they have to. It's that simple. You can easily see the world on a gap year or on holiday. The cost of living is absurd. I've considered moving back but there's no point.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    Things aren't nearly as bad as you are painting them. If they were, people wouldn't be able to take a 'gap year' or see the world 'on holiday'. Things are nowhere near as bad as they were in the 70's and 80's. Absolutely nowhere near.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    Ok reality that’s not true. The numbers leaving are not huge and the talk of the emigration doom is overblown by politicians spinning a yarn to get some votes.

    It was fired out the other day on the eviction thread about moving to the UK, which has a worse housing crisis in parts, an absolute disaster with Brexit and similar if not worse cost of living.

    As I said at the start it will be a mixture who leave but in the majority people will stay because we have an incredible country, except for the doom and gloom merchants



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Again, you're just repeating the argument. I'm not painting anything. Most Western countries have some form of a cost of living crisis at this point. The thing with Ireland is that it's not developed enough for how attractive a place to live it is.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,759 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    There's your quote below saying people are leaving because they have to. So yes, you are painting a bleak picture of Ireland.

    They're not. They're leaving because they have to. It's that simple.

    I'm saying that most people emigrating are not doing so because there are no jobs. There are lots of jobs here. I can post the links if you like but unemployment was at 17% in 1986 and is 4.3% today. It's acknowledged generally that a country is considered to have full employment if they have an unemployment of 4%. People don't have to leave any more because there's no jobs.

    Things have gone up in price for sure but that's the case pretty much everywhere. Anybody who thinks things are expensive here should try Australia. Most of the people I know are emigrating to places like Australia for the experience, knowing well that they'll return home in a year or two. They are not leaving because they can't make ends meet.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Not the same thing. A lot of the jobs available are either not paying enough or they're not what people are qualified to do.

    Much of the UK is much cheaper than Ireland so quality of life would be much higher depending on what one is looking for. I'm stuck in London but I've friends in Lancaster and Liverpool who enjoy a much higher standard of living than I do.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    The information on the UK is easy to find and the people in UK paint a different picture.

    Saying someone lives somewhere and it’s great, heard that a few times now and when you actually check it ain’t that great. Better to stick to what you know and your own experience and in London the housing crisis is huge



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's better than the situation in Dublin. Telling me to be quiet isn't an argument but if that's all you have, maybe let's just leave it.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭redlough


    Better for some, not for others. Who told you to be quiet? As my post I said you are better to discuss your own experienc

    If you are going to make up comments then yes it is better we just leave it

    As I said at the start "Some will leave, some will stay"



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭Kyokushin Grappler


    The Govt expects this Cost of Living Crisis to go on for another 7 YEARS. I imagine people minds will be changing during that time period. And more and more people will become more receptive to leaving if things don't change and improve here very soon.



Advertisement