The Propaganda War - Who is Winning

SafeSurfer · 09-03-2023 5:59pm #1

Not a thread on the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine itself but on the reporting of the war and propaganda surrounding it.

The last Sunday Independent poll showed a 50/50 split in Irish public opinion between those who believe Ukraine should seek an immediate truce with Russia. Those in favour have decreased by 8% since the last poll while those opposed have increased by 6%. Don’t knows are 20%. (Mistakenly labelled yes)

The vast majority of content on media and online here and in other western countries is overwhelmingly pro Ukrainian war aims (complete expulsion of Russian occupation) and opposed to a negotiated settlement. The political reaction to the Irish Times letter signed by Tom Clonan, among other elected representatives is an example.

However public opinion remains divided here and to a lesser extent in the US, UK etc.

Opinion outside of the “western” countries seems pretty ambivalent, for example more Indians blame NATO for the war than Russia.

Also few countries outside of western powers have imposed sanctions on Russia even after a year long invasion.

Does this indicate, despite what we may believe in the “west” that Russia is winning the global propaganda war?

growleaves · 09-03-2023 6:08pm

India seems to have taken advantage of Western sanctions to increase ties with Russia and get a deal on oil.

Gatling · 09-03-2023 6:14pm

Most people here still don't understand the war and how and why it happened, Most here are happy to spout the usual nonsense of surrounding and planning to invade Russia ,the same propaganda the Kremlin has been spouting for 60 years

Whats the figures from the poll how many people took part

One eyed Jack · 09-03-2023 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058287585/the-propaganda-war-who-is-winning

Don’t knows are 20%. (Mistakenly labelled yes)

’mistakenly’ ehhh, a likely story 🤨

😂

09-03-2023 6:48pm

The sort of far-left and far-right oddballs who spend their entire lives being angry on Twitter have rowed in behind Russia. Not sure that’s winning any sort of propaganda war, but they are exhausting in their commitment to being contrarian.

Brussels Sprout · 09-03-2023 6:51pm

I've listened to enough FiveThirtyEight podcasts to know that the framing of a question has a huge influence on the outcome.

This particular question, for example, is phrased in such a way that to someone not too familiar with the war it sounds the same as "Would you like the war to end?"

If they instead asked:

"Since March 2022 Russia has launched an illegal full scale invasion of Ukraine. In areas under occupation, Russian troops have consistently tortured, raped and murdered civilians. The Russian army has also launched a campaign of terror on the civilians of Free Ukraine by way of ariel bombardment targeting residential and civilian infrastructure. Russia currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory. Should Ukraine contine to fight to try and both defend their existing land and also to liberate more of their land and citizens or should they try to negotiate a truce with Russia where they would need to hand over this territory?"

I'll bet the response would have been a lot higher for the people who'd say they shouldn't negotiate.

Thelonious Monk · 09-03-2023 7:00pm

All of the types on Twitter who support the anti-refugee marches seem to be pro-Russia too. Pretty much any of the accounts you see supporting all these loonies blocking traffic will have some pro-Russia conspiracy theory nonsense in their timeline. I wouldn't pay much heed to those results from one stupid poll. Ukraine are sacrificing themselves right now to keep the Russians at bay in Europe. They're not going to stop at Ukraine if they are let win this war, already have their noses in Georgia and Belarus.

growleaves · 09-03-2023 7:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336835#Comment_120336835

But what about the question of whether Ukraine can win the war or not?

You make it sounds as if people who think Ukraine should opt for a compromise peace don't realise that Russia is the baddie.

Where is there any acknowledgement in your or others' commentary that the position you're taking is a kind of high-stakes gambling?

SafeSurfer · 09-03-2023 7:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336835#Comment_120336835

You are absolutely right. How the question is asked is sometimes more revealing than the answer

In fairness though, I don’t think newspapers frame survey questions with many judgement calls, no matter how correct those judgments are.

For example, surveys on the US invasion of Iraq were usually

Do you support the US invasion or do you not support it.

CalamariFritti · 09-03-2023 7:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336835#Comment_120336835

Certainly true. But your question would obviously be 'a bit' of a leading question with a lot of assertions which may or may not be objectively true. I think we already got enough of that in 'the news' where it becomes increasingly difficult to get just news without opinion or polemic wedged in right from the start. Obviously I don't think polls would be more representative the more opinion we wedge into the question. I would think the opposite is true.

Brussels Sprout · 09-03-2023 9:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336913#Comment_120336913

I think everything I said was objectively true but ok I take your point. in that case I think an alternative question could be:

"Do you think that Ukraine should give some of its territory to Russia in order to achieve peace?"

Any peace deal right now would absolutely require this to happen. I think just that simple fact would be enough to dissuade many people who haven't thought too much of what peace would entail. Irish people fought for their land from a foreign coloniser for centuries. They know what giving up territory to an invader means.

CalamariFritti · 10-03-2023 8:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337540#Comment_120337540

Correct me if I'm wrong but what I think it comes down to is that you didn't like the outcome of the poll.

The poll says nothing about possible outcomes it just asks about a truce, a temporary ceasefire in order to start talking again. And you think that doing this now will leave the Ukraine in a weak position. Which makes the underlying assumption that at some point in the future Ukraine's position may be stronger.

But what if this is not the case? I understand the strong moral sentiment towards the Ukraine, but what if it goes on for longer, more people die and more of the Ukraine gets destroyed and the position isn't getting any stronger? Maybe even the opposite?

And there are other risks in this war. Yesterday we learned of the news that a nuclear power plant got cut off the grid and the systems holding the reactor together are running now on diesel aggregates.

I can totally understand how people might think there's a lot of bad stuff going on and there is a risk of it getting a lot worse. And the war parties should start talking again. I admit I'll be in that camp, too.