March 2023 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature and the daily rainfall for Dublin (A)? (six points for each will provide a chance at superbonus points for everyone). Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 12.2 and 2.1).

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Wednesday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

Good luck!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 0.0mm

esposito

Esposito ________ 6.1 _ 16.3_ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105___ 10.0 0.0mm

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_______5.8__13.7__-6___84__120__8.8__.2mm

200motels

200motels________ 6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090_ 091 ___ 8.9 0.2mm

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 0.2mm

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____ 5.8 __ 18.8 __ -5.4 ___ 090 ___ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

pauldry

Pauldry____ 6.5__ 16.8 __ -7 ___ 120 ___ 089 ___ 9.1__ 3.2

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 6.0 __ 14.5 __ -6 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 10.5__ 3.5

waterways

waterways ________ 5.6_18.1_-7.0 _94_ 87____ 9.7 0.0

rameire

Rameire________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 1.5mm

Edit. Drier and colder

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 1.8mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 6.4 ___ 17.2 ___ -4.8 ___ 85 ___ 104 ___ 11.5 & 2.0

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ____ 5.9 __ 18.2 __ -5.9___ 075 ___ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0mm

WolfeEire

WolfeEire ____ 6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 99 _ 95 ___ 13.7 1.2mm

Bsal

Bsal ________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 0.8mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3, 3.0mm

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall _______6.1___ 17.2____-5.6___75___ 110__11.2, 0.1mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 6.3 ____ 17.1 ____ -4.2 ____ 88 ____ 110 ____ 7.1c/0.2mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____ 6.4 __ 19.1 __ -5.8 ___ 110 ___ 105 ___ 9.5 __ 2.5

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 6.6 _ 16.6_ -6.6 _ 80 _ 110___ 11.6 3.6mm

appledrop

Appledrop____6.2____17.8___-4.6___110__90__13.2__ 0.8mm

adam240610

Adam240610____ 6 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095_12.2_1.0mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa____6.4____17.5___-6.5___92__96__14.4__ 1.0mm

John mac

john mcc____7.1____18.7___-4.1___108__95__13.7__ 0.9mm

mrskinner

Skinner____6____18____-7____80____120____15__1

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Dub 17 prec

john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 0.9

___ NormaL __________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___12.2 C _ 2.1 mm

Tae laidir _____________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3 __ 3.0

Rameire _____________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 __ 1.5

Joe Public ____________ 6.6 _ 16.6 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 11.6 __ 3.6

Artane2002 ___________6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 __ 0.2

Pauldry ______________ 6.5 _ 16.8 _ -7.0 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9.1 __ 3.2

Jpmarn ______________ 6.4 _ 19.1 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 9.5 __ 2.5

Dacogawa ____________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -6.5 _ 092 _ 096 ___ 14.4 __ 1.0

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.4 _ 17.2 _ -4.8 _ 085 _ 104 ___ 11.5 __ 2.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 __ 0.0

DOCARCH ____________ 6.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.2 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 7.1 __ 0.2

WolfeEire _____________6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 099 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 1.2

Appledrop ____________ 6.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.2 __ 0.8

___ Con Sensus _______ 6.2 _ 17.4 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 11.2 __ 0.9

200motels ____________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 091 ____ 8.9 __ 0.2

Gonzo _______________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 __ 1.8

Mr Stonewall __________ 6.1 _ 17.2 _ -5.6 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 11.2 __ 0.1

Esposito ______________6.1 _ 16.3 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.0 __ 0.0

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______6.0 _ 18.0 _ -7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 15.0 __ 1.0

Adam240610 _________ 6.0 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 __ 1.0

Dasa29 ______________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 __ 3.5

Sunflower3 ___________ 5.9 _ 18.2 _ -5.9 _ 075 _ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0

Bsal _________________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 __ 0.8

M.T. Cranium __________5.8 _ 18.8 _ -5.4 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

Cornerstonelad ________ 5.8 _ 13.7 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 120 ____ 8.8 __ 0.2

waterways ____________5.6 _ 18.1 _ -7.0 _ 094 _ 087 ____ 9.7 __ 0.0

________________________________________

With 25 forecasts, (and NormaL) the consensus is the median (not including NormaL), which is the 13th ranked forecast in each category.

21 forecasters have a measurable amount of rain for 17th at Dublin A, 4 have 0.0 mm. Of the 21, this is the distribution:

0.1-0.4 __ 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.5-0.8 __ 0.6 0.8 0.8

0.9-1.2 __ 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

1.3-2.0 __ 1.5 1.8 2.0

(normal is set at 2.1)

2.1+ (actuals) _ 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6

The median is 0.9 mm and the mean of 25 forecasts is 1.2 mm.

==================

This is quite an unusual forecast set, with 24/25 at or below normal, although given the rather certain negative anomaly indicated for 1st to 10th, and with one eye on the predicted max values, it looks as though a majority foresee the cold start being almost overcome by later warmth. There is a slightly dry and cloudy theme similar to much of the previous month.

rameire

-3.7 at Mount Dillon overnight.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1633042047689977856

M.T. Cranium

I will post a first week summary later today, but just noting Castlederg (outside the contest zone) was -9 C at 0700h today. Knock was -4 C on an hourly.

M.T. Cranium

First week summary ...

IMT 5.0 is 1.3 below normal so far. After today this is probably close to 4.5, by Friday close to 4.0, then more up than down.

MAX has not checked in, MIN -3.7 but may be -4 now (Finner) and could fall lower Friday.

PRC 26% of normal, that will increase substantially by Friday though.

SUN 54% of normal (322/600).

Latest guidance for 17th shows Ireland in a cold easterly flow and highs near 6 C, not much precip but some (about 1 mm).

Tae laidir

Roches Point 14.0 yesterday.