March 2023 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature and the daily rainfall for Dublin (A)? (six points for each will provide a chance at superbonus points for everyone). Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 12.2 and 2.1).

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Wednesday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

Good luck!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 0.0mm

esposito

Esposito ________ 6.1 _ 16.3_ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105___ 10.0 0.0mm

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_______5.8__13.7__-6___84__120__8.8__.2mm

200motels

200motels________ 6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090_ 091 ___ 8.9 0.2mm

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 0.2mm

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____ 5.8 __ 18.8 __ -5.4 ___ 090 ___ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

pauldry

Pauldry____ 6.5__ 16.8 __ -7 ___ 120 ___ 089 ___ 9.1__ 3.2

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 6.0 __ 14.5 __ -6 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 10.5__ 3.5

waterways

waterways ________ 5.6_18.1_-7.0 _94_ 87____ 9.7 0.0

rameire

Rameire________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 1.5mm

Edit. Drier and colder

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 1.8mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 6.4 ___ 17.2 ___ -4.8 ___ 85 ___ 104 ___ 11.5 & 2.0

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ____ 5.9 __ 18.2 __ -5.9___ 075 ___ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0mm

WolfeEire

WolfeEire ____ 6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 99 _ 95 ___ 13.7 1.2mm

Bsal

Bsal ________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 0.8mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3, 3.0mm

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall _______6.1___ 17.2____-5.6___75___ 110__11.2, 0.1mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 6.3 ____ 17.1 ____ -4.2 ____ 88 ____ 110 ____ 7.1c/0.2mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____ 6.4 __ 19.1 __ -5.8 ___ 110 ___ 105 ___ 9.5 __ 2.5

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 6.6 _ 16.6_ -6.6 _ 80 _ 110___ 11.6 3.6mm

appledrop

Appledrop____6.2____17.8___-4.6___110__90__13.2__ 0.8mm

adam240610

Adam240610____ 6 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095_12.2_1.0mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa____6.4____17.5___-6.5___92__96__14.4__ 1.0mm

John mac

john mcc____7.1____18.7___-4.1___108__95__13.7__ 0.9mm

mrskinner

Skinner____6____18____-7____80____120____15__1

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Dub 17 prec

john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 0.9

___ NormaL __________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___12.2 C _ 2.1 mm

Tae laidir _____________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3 __ 3.0

Rameire _____________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 __ 1.5

Joe Public ____________ 6.6 _ 16.6 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 11.6 __ 3.6

Artane2002 ___________6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 __ 0.2

Pauldry ______________ 6.5 _ 16.8 _ -7.0 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9.1 __ 3.2

Jpmarn ______________ 6.4 _ 19.1 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 9.5 __ 2.5

Dacogawa ____________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -6.5 _ 092 _ 096 ___ 14.4 __ 1.0

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.4 _ 17.2 _ -4.8 _ 085 _ 104 ___ 11.5 __ 2.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 __ 0.0

DOCARCH ____________ 6.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.2 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 7.1 __ 0.2

WolfeEire _____________6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 099 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 1.2

Appledrop ____________ 6.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.2 __ 0.8

___ Con Sensus _______ 6.2 _ 17.4 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 11.2 __ 0.9

200motels ____________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 091 ____ 8.9 __ 0.2

Gonzo _______________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 __ 1.8

Mr Stonewall __________ 6.1 _ 17.2 _ -5.6 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 11.2 __ 0.1

Esposito ______________6.1 _ 16.3 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.0 __ 0.0

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______6.0 _ 18.0 _ -7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 15.0 __ 1.0

Adam240610 _________ 6.0 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 __ 1.0

Dasa29 ______________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 __ 3.5

Sunflower3 ___________ 5.9 _ 18.2 _ -5.9 _ 075 _ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0

Bsal _________________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 __ 0.8

M.T. Cranium __________5.8 _ 18.8 _ -5.4 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

Cornerstonelad ________ 5.8 _ 13.7 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 120 ____ 8.8 __ 0.2

waterways ____________5.6 _ 18.1 _ -7.0 _ 094 _ 087 ____ 9.7 __ 0.0

________________________________________

With 25 forecasts, (and NormaL) the consensus is the median (not including NormaL), which is the 13th ranked forecast in each category.

21 forecasters have a measurable amount of rain for 17th at Dublin A, 4 have 0.0 mm. Of the 21, this is the distribution:

0.1-0.4 __ 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.5-0.8 __ 0.6 0.8 0.8

0.9-1.2 __ 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

1.3-2.0 __ 1.5 1.8 2.0

(normal is set at 2.1)

2.1+ (actuals) _ 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6

The median is 0.9 mm and the mean of 25 forecasts is 1.2 mm.

==================

This is quite an unusual forecast set, with 24/25 at or below normal, although given the rather certain negative anomaly indicated for 1st to 10th, and with one eye on the predicted max values, it looks as though a majority foresee the cold start being almost overcome by later warmth. There is a slightly dry and cloudy theme similar to much of the previous month.

rameire

-3.7 at Mount Dillon overnight.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1633042047689977856

M.T. Cranium

I will post a first week summary later today, but just noting Castlederg (outside the contest zone) was -9 C at 0700h today. Knock was -4 C on an hourly.

M.T. Cranium

First week summary ...

IMT 5.0 is 1.3 below normal so far. After today this is probably close to 4.5, by Friday close to 4.0, then more up than down.

MAX has not checked in, MIN -3.7 but may be -4 now (Finner) and could fall lower Friday.

PRC 26% of normal, that will increase substantially by Friday though.

SUN 54% of normal (322/600).

Latest guidance for 17th shows Ireland in a cold easterly flow and highs near 6 C, not much precip but some (about 1 mm).

Tae laidir

Roches Point 14.0 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 15.2 yesterday.

St. Patrick's Day now looking nice and warm.

Jpmarn

It looks like St Patricks Day will be milder with Met Eireann quoting 15 -16C max. I would guess 14.8C based on the forecast for Dublin Airport. Rainfall could be substantial. Probably 7.5mm.

pauldry

Could it be 17 on the 17th? Doubtful as it'd meant to be sunny later but cooler. Peak temperature probably around 1 or 2pm. Might be 17c somewhere else though.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT was 4.9 (from 4.94), second week average was 4.8 which was 2.0 below normal.

MAX 15.2 and MIN -4.0

PRC now 137% with the second week a very wet 247% of normal.

SUN is 64% with the second week only 74% of normal (445/600).

Getting ready to score the bonus on Friday, with these entries (from table of entries, redesigned for the bonus) ...

higher rainfall forecasts are moved to right so that column shows differences visually, the temperatures are re-arranged in order.

FORECASTER ____________ Max __ rain (mm)

MrSkinner _______________ 15.0 ____ 1.0

Dacogawa _______________ 14.4 ____ 1.0

M.T. Cranium _____________14.2 ___ 0.6

sryanbruen ______________ 13.8 __ 0.0

john mac ________________13.7 ____ 0.9

WolfeEire ________________13.7 ____ 1.2

Tae laidir ________________ 13.3 ________ 3.0

Appledrop _______________ 13.2 ____ 0.8

Artane2002 ______________12.6 ___ 0.2

Adam240610 _____________12.2 ____ 1.0

___ NormaL _____________ 12.2 C _____ 2.1

Joe Public _______________ 11.6 _________ 3.6

Kindred Spirit ____________ 11.5 ______ 2.0

___ Con Sensus __________ 11.2 ____ 0.9

Gonzo __________________ 12.4 ______ 1.8

Mr Stonewall _____________ 11.2 __ 0.1

Dasa29 __________________10.5 ________ 3.5

Sunflower3 _______________10.3 __ 0.0

Rameire _________________10.2 _____ 1.5

Bsal ____________________ 10.0 ____ 0.8

Esposito _________________10.0 __ 0.0

waterways ________________9.7 __ 0.0

Jpmarn __________________ 9.5 _______ 2.5

Pauldry __________________ 9.1 ________ 3.2

200motels ________________ 8.9 __ 0.2

Cornerstonelad ____________ 8.8 __ 0.2

DOCARCH ________________ 7.1 __ 0.2

=========================

(scores for each will be out of six to build in super-bonus potential ... on current forecasts, the numerical guidance says 11 C and 0-1 mm rain for Dub(A), warmer and wetter perhaps in southwest.

Tae laidir

Shannon Airport reported 16.0 yesterday.

appledrop

About 2.0mm of rain so far at Dublin Airport. Unfortunately most of it fell while we were out watching the parade!

Max temperature around 11 but has brightened up now so may get higher.

M.T. Cranium

Spotted an editing error in my table for the bonus scoring so here's a corrected version:

FORECASTER ____________ Max __ rain (mm)

MrSkinner _______________ 15.0 ____ 1.0

Dacogawa _______________ 14.4 ____ 1.0

M.T. Cranium _____________14.2 ___ 0.6

sryanbruen ______________ 13.8 __ 0.0

john mac ________________13.7 ____ 0.9

WolfeEire ________________13.7 ____ 1.2

Tae laidir ________________ 13.3 ________ 3.0

Appledrop _______________ 13.2 ____ 0.8

Artane2002 ______________12.6 ___ 0.2

Gonzo __________________ 12.4 ______ 1.8

Adam240610 _____________12.2 ____ 1.0

___ NormaL _____________ 12.2 C _____ 2.1

Joe Public _______________ 11.6 _________ 3.6

Kindred Spirit ____________ 11.5 ______ 2.0

___ Con Sensus __________ 11.2 ____ 0.9

Mr Stonewall _____________ 11.2 __ 0.1

Dasa29 __________________10.5 ________ 3.5

Sunflower3 _______________10.3 __ 0.0

Rameire _________________10.2 _____ 1.5

Bsal ____________________ 10.0 ____ 0.8

Esposito _________________10.0 __ 0.0

waterways ________________9.7 __ 0.0

Jpmarn __________________ 9.5 _______ 2.5

Pauldry __________________ 9.1 ________ 3.2

200motels ________________ 8.9 __ 0.2

Cornerstonelad ____________ 8.8 __ 0.2

DOCARCH ________________ 7.1 __ 0.2

=========================

M.T. Cranium

Scoring the bonus from preliminary data, later confirmed:

_______________ __ __ Tmax 11.4

________________ __ ___ Rainfall 2.5 mm

FORECASTER ___________Temp_Prec__Total

Kindred Spirit ____________ 6 __ 6 ___ 12

Gonzo __________________ 5 __ 6 ___ 11

___ NormaL _____________ 5 __ 6 ___ 11

Joe Public _______________ 6 __ 5 ___ 11

Tae laidir ________________4 __ 6 ___ 10

Dasa29 _________________ 5 __ 5 ___ 10

Rameire _________________5 __ 5 ___ 10

Jpmarn _________________ 4 __ 6 ___ 10

Adam240610 ____________ 5 __ 4 ____ 9

Pauldry _________________ 3 __ 6 ____ 9

___ Con Sensus __________ 6 __ 3 ____ 9

Mr Stonewall _____________6 __ 2 ____ 8

WolfeEire _______________ 3 __ 4 ____ 7

Appledrop _______________4 __ 3 ____ 7

Artane2002 ______________5 __ 2 ____ 7

Bsal ____________________4 __ 3 ____ 7

Sunflower3 ______________ 5 __ 1 ____ 6

Dacogawa _______________ 2 __ 4 ____ 6

john mac ________________3 __ 3 ____ 6

MrSkinner _______________ 1 __ 4 ____ 5

Esposito _________________4 __ 1 ____ 5

waterways _______________ 4 __ 1 ____ 5

200motels _______________ 3 __ 2 ____ 5

M.T. Cranium _____________ 2 __ 2 ____ 4

sryanbruen _______________3 __ 1 ____ 4

Cornerstonelad ____________2 __ 2 ____ 4

DOCARCH ________________1 __ 2 ____ 3

=========================

Closest forecasts:

temp __ Kindred Spirit +0.1, MrStonewall -0.2

rain ___ JPmarn (2.5 mm right on), Kindred Spirit -0.5 and tae laidir +0.5

Congrats to Kindred Spirit who scooped two superbonus points and all of the above who scored 10 or 11.

M.T. Cranium

A few milder days and the IMT was up to 5.7 after 17th.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park had another 16.0 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.3, after the third week managed a warmer 9.1 (2.0 above normal). Counting today, the projected mean for 22nd-31st is around 7.5 with two rather cold days Sunday-Monday mixed with rather average to mild days otherwise; the estimated finish then would be 6.7 C. That is higher than all but two of our forecasts (John mac had 7.1 and tae laidir 6.8 with Rameire and Joe Public at 6.6), and just about normal (6.8) where most of us expected a cool month.

MAX 16.0 and MIN -4.0 _ neither of those is under a lot of stress from numerical guidance although a -3 shows up inland southeast on Monday 27th.

PRC has soared to 174% of normal after a third week average of 249%. This seems unlikely to drift down very far if at all, and our highest forecast was 120% (Pauldry), so we're definitely looking at a hammer-free boost here. GFS suggests 150% of normal here to 31st, which places the outcome close to 170%.

SUN is having a dismal outing, now down to 61% of normal with the past week only 54% (Cork 20%). It does not look all that promising for SUN but even an above normal outing of 120% for the last ten days would leave the outcome near 80% which is our lowest forecast from the gloomy MTC. The pattern ahead suggests we might have trouble getting even to 70% so this one could also involve a boost (hammer usually doesn't make any difference to how SUN boosts work anyway, the boosts are usually 1-2 points at most).

BONUS was recently scored, 11.4 C and 2.5 mm rain

_________________________

I won't even call this a "what if" scoring report but just FYI my current estimates would yield these scores with PRC on a minimum progression but MAX and MIN just scored raw for now (they may need boosts but hammers are in play so these boosts would not be large) ...

Very preliminary hint of scoring for March 2023

remains in forecast table order ... max and min forecasts left in, only one point boosts may be available though, as Bsal has hammer for current max, several in with a hammer for current min. Figure on adding 1-2 points in each category if you're not at the max now (or if your 00 is worst of the bunch, that might remain 00). I have put an estimated adjustment score in brackets. If any of the end-of-month estimates change, I will update these scores.

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___Max Dub 17 prec

Estimates ____________6.7 __ 16.0 __-4.0 __ 170 __ 075 ___ 11.4 __ 2.5 ___ TOTALS (adjusted)

john mac ____________ 21 _ 00 18.7 _ 19 -4.1 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 3 ______ 64 (67)

___ NormaL __________ 24 _ 00 18.0 _ 20 -4.0 _ 10*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 6 ______ 70 (73)

Tae laidir _____________24 _ 01 17.9 _ 15 -4.5 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 4 __ 6 ______ 60 (63)

Rameire _____________ 24 _ 00 18.3 _ 00 -6.4 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 5 __ 5 ______ 48 (51)

Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 14 16.6 _ 00 -6.6 _ 04*_ 03 ___ 6 __ 5 ______ 56 (59)

Artane2002 ___________23 _ 06 17.4 _ 14 -4.6 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 5 __ 2 ______ 68 (71)

Pauldry ______________ 23 _ 12 16.8 _ 00 -7.0 _ 14*_ 07 ___ 3 __ 6 ______ 65 (68)

Jpmarn ______________ 22 _ 00 19.1 _ 02 -5.8 _ 13*_ 04 ___ 4 __ 6 ______ 51 (53)

Dacogawa ____________ 22 _ 05 17.5 _ 00 -6.5 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 2 __ 4 ______ 47 (50)

Kindred Spirit _________ 22 _ 08 17.2 _ 12 -4.8 _ 06*_ 04 ___ 6 __ 6 ______ 64 (67)

sryanbruen ___________ 21 _ 08 17.2 _ 11 -4.9 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 1 ______ 58 (61)

DOCARCH ____________ 21 _ 09 17.1 _ 18 -4.2 _ 07*_ 03 ___ 1 __ 2 ______ 61 (64)

WolfeEire _____________21 _ 11 16.9 _ 00 -6.1 _ 09*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 4 ______ 54 (57)

Appledrop ____________ 20 _ 02 17.8 _ 14 -4.6 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 4 __ 3 ______ 63 (66)

___ Con Sensus _______ 20 _ 06 17.4 _ 00 -6.0 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 6 __ 3 ______ 48 (51)

200motels ____________20 _ 14 15.4 _ 00 -6.7 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 3 __ 2 ______ 53 (56)

Gonzo _______________ 19 _ 04 17.6 _ 00 -6.4 _ 06*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 6 ______ 45 (48)

Mr Stonewall __________ 19 _ 08 17.2 _ 04 -5.6 _ 02*_ 03 ___ 6 __ 2 ______ 44 (48)

Esposito ______________19 _ 17 16.3 _ 00 -6.2 _ 08*_ 04 ___ 4 __ 1 ______ 53 (57)

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______18 _ 00 18.0 _ 00 -7.0 _ 04*_ 01 ___ 1 __ 4 __28-1=27 (30)

Adam240610 _________ 18 _ 04 17.6 _ 11 -4.9 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 5 __ 4 ______ 55 (59)

Dasa29 ______________ 18 _ 05 14.5 _ 00 -6.0 _ 10*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 5 ______ 48 (52)

Sunflower3 ___________ 17 _ 00 18.2 _ 01 -5.9 _ 02*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 1 ______ 31 (34)

Bsal _________________ 17 _ 20 16.0 _ 00 -7.0 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 4 __ 3 ______ 57 (59)

M.T. Cranium __________16 _ 00 18.8 _ 06 -5.4 _ 07*_ 09 ___ 2 __ 2 ______ 42 (45)

Cornerstonelad ________ 16 _ 00 13.7 _ 00 -6.0 _ 05*_ 01 ___ 2 __ 2 ______ 26 (30)

waterways ____________14 _ 00 18.1 _ 00 -7.0 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 4 __ 1 ______ 35 (38)

________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Dub 17 prec

john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 0.9

___ NormaL __________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___12.2 C _ 2.1 mm

Tae laidir _____________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3 __ 3.0

Rameire _____________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 __ 1.5

Joe Public ____________ 6.6 _ 16.6 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 11.6 __ 3.6

Artane2002 ___________6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 __ 0.2

Pauldry ______________ 6.5 _ 16.8 _ -7.0 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9.1 __ 3.2

Jpmarn ______________ 6.4 _ 19.1 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 9.5 __ 2.5

Dacogawa ____________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -6.5 _ 092 _ 096 ___ 14.4 __ 1.0

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.4 _ 17.2 _ -4.8 _ 085 _ 104 ___ 11.5 __ 2.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 __ 0.0

DOCARCH ____________ 6.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.2 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 7.1 __ 0.2

WolfeEire _____________6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 099 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 1.2

Appledrop ____________ 6.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.2 __ 0.8

___ Con Sensus _______ 6.2 _ 17.4 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 11.2 __ 0.9

200motels ____________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 091 ____ 8.9 __ 0.2

Gonzo _______________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 __ 1.8

Mr Stonewall __________ 6.1 _ 17.2 _ -5.6 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 11.2 __ 0.1

Esposito ______________6.1 _ 16.3 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.0 __ 0.0

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______6.0 _ 18.0 _ -7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 15.0 __ 1.0

Adam240610 _________ 6.0 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 __ 1.0

Dasa29 ______________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 __ 3.5

Sunflower3 ___________ 5.9 _ 18.2 _ -5.9 _ 075 _ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0

Bsal _________________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 __ 0.8

M.T. Cranium __________5.8 _ 18.8 _ -5.4 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

Cornerstonelad ________ 5.8 _ 13.7 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 120 ____ 8.8 __ 0.2

waterways ____________5.6 _ 18.1 _ -7.0 _ 094 _ 087 ____ 9.7 __ 0.0

________________________________________

rameire

-4.3c at Dublin Airport Overnight.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1640296375802908672

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, I also updated the IMT estimate. It had reached 6.8 after Sunday, likely fell back to 6.7 after Monday, but I now estimate 6.9 rather than 6.7. The change in MIN was almost enough to reduce the need for minimum progression boosts there, and what I did was simply to add one point to every score since nobody had 20/20. The max has just increased to at least 16.3 ... this produces a set of scores that has few enough zero values to avoid a boost. So I have also removed the adjusted totals but edited in the small minimum progression boosts for MIN instead. MAX and MIN forecast values remain in the table for now.

These would be the updated scores.

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___Max Dub 17 prec

Estimates ____________6.9 __ 16.3 __-4.3 __ 170 __ 075 ___ 11.4 __ 2.5 ___ TOTALS (adjusted)

john mac ____________ 23 _ 00 18.7 _ 19* -4.1 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 3 ______ 66

___ NormaL __________ 24 _ 03 18.0 _ 18* -4.0 _ 10*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 6 ______ 71

Tae laidir _____________24 _ 04 17.9 _ 19* -4.5 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 4 __ 6 ______ 67

Rameire _____________ 22 _ 00 18.3 _ 01* -6.4 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 5 __ 5 ______ 47

Joe Public ____________ 22 _ 17 16.6 _ 01* -6.6 _ 04*_ 03 ___ 6 __ 5 ______ 58

Artane2002 ___________21 _ 09 17.4 _ 18* -4.6 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 5 __ 2 ______ 73

Pauldry ______________ 21 _ 15 16.8 _ 01* -7.0 _ 14*_ 07 ___ 3 __ 6 ______ 67

Jpmarn ______________ 20 _ 00 19.1 _ 06* -5.8 _ 13*_ 04 ___ 4 __ 6 ______ 53

Dacogawa ____________ 20 _ 08 17.5 _ 01* -6.5 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 2 __ 4 ______ 49

Kindred Spirit _________ 20 _ 11 17.2 _ 16* -4.8 _ 06*_ 04 ___ 6 __ 6 ______ 69

sryanbruen ___________ 19 _ 11 17.2 _ 15* -4.9 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 1 ______ 63

DOCARCH ____________ 19 _ 12 17.1 _ 20* -4.2 _ 07*_ 03 ___ 1 __ 2 ______ 64

WolfeEire _____________19 _ 14 16.9 _ 03* -6.1 _ 09*_ 06 ___ 3 __ 4 ______ 58

Appledrop ____________ 18 _ 05 17.8 _ 18* -4.6 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 4 __ 3 ______ 68

___ Con Sensus _______ 18 _ 09 17.4 _ 04* -6.0 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 6 __ 3 ______ 53

200motels ____________18 _ 11 15.4 _ 01* -6.7 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 3 __ 2 ______ 49

Gonzo _______________ 17 _ 07 17.6 _ 01* -6.4 _ 06*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 6 ______ 47

Mr Stonewall __________ 17 _ 11 17.2 _ 08* -5.6 _ 02*_ 03 ___ 6 __ 2 ______ 49

Esposito ______________17 _ 20 16.3 _ 02* -6.2 _ 08*_ 04 ___ 4 __ 1 ______ 56

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______16 _ 03 18.0 _ 01* -7.0 _ 04*_ 01 ___ 1 __ 4 __30-1=29

Adam240610 _________ 16 _ 07 17.6 _ 15* -4.9 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 5 __ 4 ______ 60

Dasa29 ______________ 16 _ 02 14.5 _ 04* -6.0 _ 10*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 5 ______ 47

Sunflower3 ___________ 15 _ 01 18.2 _ 05* -5.9 _ 02*_ 05 ___ 5 __ 1 ______ 34

Bsal _________________15 _ 17 16.0 _ 01* -7.0 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 4 __ 3 ______ 53

M.T. Cranium __________14 _ 00 18.8 _ 10* -5.4 _ 07*_ 09 ___ 2 __ 2 ______ 44

Cornerstonelad ________ 14 _ 00 13.7 _ 04* -6.0 _ 05*_ 01 ___ 2 __ 2 ______ 28

waterways ____________12 _ 02 18.1 _ 01* -7.0 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 4 __ 1 ______ 36

________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Dub 17 prec

john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 0.9

___ NormaL __________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___12.2 C _ 2.1 mm

Tae laidir _____________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3 __ 3.0

Rameire _____________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 __ 1.5

Joe Public ____________ 6.6 _ 16.6 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 11.6 __ 3.6

Artane2002 ___________6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 __ 0.2

Pauldry ______________ 6.5 _ 16.8 _ -7.0 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9.1 __ 3.2

Jpmarn ______________ 6.4 _ 19.1 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 9.5 __ 2.5

Dacogawa ____________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -6.5 _ 092 _ 096 ___ 14.4 __ 1.0

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.4 _ 17.2 _ -4.8 _ 085 _ 104 ___ 11.5 __ 2.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 __ 0.0

DOCARCH ____________ 6.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.2 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 7.1 __ 0.2

WolfeEire _____________6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 099 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 1.2

Appledrop ____________ 6.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.2 __ 0.8

___ Con Sensus _______ 6.2 _ 17.4 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 11.2 __ 0.9

200motels ____________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 091 ____ 8.9 __ 0.2

Gonzo _______________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 __ 1.8

Mr Stonewall __________ 6.1 _ 17.2 _ -5.6 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 11.2 __ 0.1

Esposito ______________6.1 _ 16.3 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.0 __ 0.0

MrSkinner __ (-1) ______6.0 _ 18.0 _ -7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 15.0 __ 1.0

Adam240610 _________ 6.0 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 __ 1.0

Dasa29 ______________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 __ 3.5

Sunflower3 ___________ 5.9 _ 18.2 _ -5.9 _ 075 _ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0

Bsal _________________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 __ 0.8

M.T. Cranium __________5.8 _ 18.8 _ -5.4 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

Cornerstonelad ________ 5.8 _ 13.7 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 120 ____ 8.8 __ 0.2

waterways ____________5.6 _ 18.1 _ -7.0 _ 094 _ 087 ____ 9.7 __ 0.0

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Flag

appledrop

Its mild out there now and a few stations reporting 16 degrees so Max might increase.

M.T. Cranium

I see 16.3 at Oak Park (on a map of daily max at meteociel) but Phoenix Park and Mountdillon are not on that map so could be even more of a boost. For now I have edited the scoring table to show 16.3.

DOCARCH

16.3c at Oak Park was the high for yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 6.9 C, fourth week average 9.2, 1.2 above normal.

MAX 16.3, MIN -4.3

PRC continues well above normal, now at 167% with this past week average 148%.

SUN has improved to 73% after a brighter week with 117.5% of average.

BONUS already scored.

If we don't adjust MAX after today, which is possible with Shannon at 16C past hour, I think scoring recently posted is fairly close to accurate now, IMT may need another adjustment (up to perhaps 7.1). PRC cannot finish below 150% and SUN looks headed for around 75-80.

rameire

I think I saw 16.7 at Phoenix Park today on wow.met.

Not a huge increase.

M.T. Cranium

Looks like that turned into 17.1 for the MAX and I think that should be it, but will hold off correcting the scoring table until I know the IMT value on Saturday. After that we will be waiting until at least the 4th to confirm some values.

pauldry

It's already 16c in Pheonix of the flames. Could go higher.

No it didn't beat yesterday in Pheonix Park. Got to 16c