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March 2023 Boards forecast contest

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  • 27-02-2023 10:02am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

    2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

    3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

    4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature and the daily rainfall for Dublin (A)? (six points for each will provide a chance at superbonus points for everyone). Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 12.2 and 2.1).

    Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Wednesday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

    Good luck!



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 0.0mm

    Post edited by sryanbruen on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,352 ✭✭✭esposito


    Esposito ________ 6.1 _ 16.3_ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105___ 10.0 0.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 43 Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad_______5.8__13.7__-6___84__120__8.8__.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels________ 6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090_ 091 ___ 8.9 0.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,987 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________ 6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 0.2mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ____ 5.8 __ 18.8 __ -5.4 ___ 090 ___ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,931 ✭✭✭pauldry



    Pauldry____ 6.5__ 16.8 __ -7 ___ 120 ___ 089 ___ 9.1__ 3.2

    Post edited by pauldry on


  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 6.0 __ 14.5 __ -6 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 10.5__ 3.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ________ 5.6_18.1_-7.0 _94_ 87____ 9.7 0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 1.5mm



    Edit. Drier and colder

    Post edited by rameire on

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 1.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 340 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 6.4 ___ 17.2 ___ -4.8 ___ 85 ___ 104 ___ 11.5 & 2.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 189 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ____ 5.9 __ 18.2 __ -5.9___ 075 ___ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 912 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    WolfeEire ____ 6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 99 _ 95 ___ 13.7 1.2mm

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,769 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal ________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 0.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ________ 6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3, 3.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,659 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall _______6.1___ 17.2____-5.6___75___ 110__11.2, 0.1mm



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,808 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ________ 6.3 ____ 17.1 ____ -4.2 ____ 88 ____ 110 ____ 7.1c/0.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 6.4 __ 19.1 __ -5.8 ___ 110 ___ 105 ___ 9.5 __ 2.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ________ 6.6 _ 16.6_ -6.6 _ 80 _ 110___ 11.6 3.6mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop____6.2____17.8___-4.6___110__90__13.2__ 0.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 814 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610____ 6 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095_12.2_1.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa____6.4____17.5___-6.5___92__96__14.4__ 1.0mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,113 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mcc____7.1____18.7___-4.1___108__95__13.7__ 0.9mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____6____18____-7____80____120____15__1



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Table of forecasts for March 2023


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Dub 17 prec


    john mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.1 _ 108 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 0.9


    ___ NormaL __________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___12.2 C _ 2.1 mm


    Tae laidir _____________6.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.5 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.3 __ 3.0

    Rameire _____________ 6.6 _ 18.3 _ -6.4 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 10.2 __ 1.5

    Joe Public ____________ 6.6 _ 16.6 _ -6.6 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 11.6 __ 3.6

    Artane2002 ___________6.5 _ 17.4 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 12.6 __ 0.2

    Pauldry ______________ 6.5 _ 16.8 _ -7.0 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9.1 __ 3.2

    Jpmarn ______________ 6.4 _ 19.1 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 9.5 __ 2.5

    Dacogawa ____________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -6.5 _ 092 _ 096 ___ 14.4 __ 1.0

    Kindred Spirit _________ 6.4 _ 17.2 _ -4.8 _ 085 _ 104 ___ 11.5 __ 2.0

    sryanbruen ___________ 6.3 _ 17.2 _ -4.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.8 __ 0.0

    DOCARCH ____________ 6.3 _ 17.1 _ -4.2 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 7.1 __ 0.2

    WolfeEire _____________6.3 _ 16.9 _ -6.1 _ 099 _ 095 ___ 13.7 __ 1.2

    Appledrop ____________ 6.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.2 __ 0.8

    ___ Con Sensus _______ 6.2 _ 17.4 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 11.2 __ 0.9

    200motels ____________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 091 ____ 8.9 __ 0.2

    Gonzo _______________ 6.1 _ 17.6 _ -6.4 _ 086 _ 099 ___ 12.4 __ 1.8

    Mr Stonewall __________ 6.1 _ 17.2 _ -5.6 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 11.2 __ 0.1

    Esposito ______________6.1 _ 16.3 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.0 __ 0.0

    MrSkinner __ (-1) ______6.0 _ 18.0 _ -7.0 _ 080 _ 120 ___ 15.0 __ 1.0

    Adam240610 _________ 6.0 _ 17.6 _ -4.9 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 __ 1.0

    Dasa29 ______________ 6.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 __ 3.5

    Sunflower3 ___________ 5.9 _ 18.2 _ -5.9 _ 075 _ 098 ___ 10.3 __ 0.0

    Bsal _________________ 5.9 _ 16.0 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 10.0 __ 0.8

    M.T. Cranium __________5.8 _ 18.8 _ -5.4 _ 090 _ 080 ___ 14.2 __ 0.6

    Cornerstonelad ________ 5.8 _ 13.7 _ -6.0 _ 084 _ 120 ____ 8.8 __ 0.2

    waterways ____________5.6 _ 18.1 _ -7.0 _ 094 _ 087 ____ 9.7 __ 0.0

    ________________________________________

    With 25 forecasts, (and NormaL) the consensus is the median (not including NormaL), which is the 13th ranked forecast in each category.

    21 forecasters have a measurable amount of rain for 17th at Dublin A, 4 have 0.0 mm. Of the 21, this is the distribution:

    0.1-0.4 __ 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

    0.5-0.8 __ 0.6 0.8 0.8

    0.9-1.2 __ 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

    1.3-2.0 __ 1.5 1.8 2.0

    (normal is set at 2.1)

    2.1+ (actuals) _ 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6

    The median is 0.9 mm and the mean of 25 forecasts is 1.2 mm.

    ==================

    This is quite an unusual forecast set, with 24/25 at or below normal, although given the rather certain negative anomaly indicated for 1st to 10th, and with one eye on the predicted max values, it looks as though a majority foresee the cold start being almost overcome by later warmth. There is a slightly dry and cloudy theme similar to much of the previous month.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭rameire


    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will post a first week summary later today, but just noting Castlederg (outside the contest zone) was -9 C at 0700h today. Knock was -4 C on an hourly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,385 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    First week summary ...

    IMT 5.0 is 1.3 below normal so far. After today this is probably close to 4.5, by Friday close to 4.0, then more up than down.

    MAX has not checked in, MIN -3.7 but may be -4 now (Finner) and could fall lower Friday.

    PRC 26% of normal, that will increase substantially by Friday though.

    SUN 54% of normal (322/600).

    Latest guidance for 17th shows Ireland in a cold easterly flow and highs near 6 C, not much precip but some (about 1 mm).



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  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Roches Point 14.0 yesterday.



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