February 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX and

3. MIN (each from the 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. BONUS _ For the 14th, what will be the warmest maximum temperature at the standard weather reporting locations (as seen on the met.ie website under current weather and yesterday's weather) and what will be their daily maximum? (seven points for temperature accuracy, three for location, 1-2 pt superbonus available).

Deadline as always is 0300h 1st (Wednesday, meaning late Tuesday evening past midnight) and late penalties are 1 point for every four hours or portion, up to 36h (1500h 2nd) (nine penalty points at that time) after which the penalty increases to one point per hour.

Minimum score regardless of actual score from the rules after late penalties is 10/100, except that entries are not permitted after 6th (end of day).

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 Phoenix Park

rameire

Rameire ________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 Valentia

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 Phoenix Park

esposito

esposito ________ 6.7_ 16.3 _ -2.4_ 095 _ 114___ 14.9 Valentia

WolfeEire

WolfEire ________ 6.1_14_-3.7_88_113_9.2 Gurteen

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 Shannon

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit _____ 6.4 ___ 16.0 ___ -4 ___ 98 ___ 110 ___ 13.0 Mt. Dillon.

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_____6.3___15.5___-5.2__99___120___16.1 Valentia

200motels

200motels------------- 6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 Phoenix Park

Bsal

Bsal ________ 6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 Casement

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5_ 97 _ 105 ___ 11.2 Belmullet

Joe Public

Joe Public________ 5.5_ 15.9 _ -5.4_ 130 _ 95___ 10.9 Sherkin Island

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 Mullingar

mrskinner

Skinner____6.9____15.6____-3.7____101____101____10.9Valentia.

sunflower3

Sunflower3------------- 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 90 ___ 9.5 Phoenix Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 Phoenix Park

waterways

waterways ___________ 5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ____ 10.4 Valentia

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___5.1___14.1___-7.1___81__88__9.9 belmullet

John mac

john mac________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 belmullet

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 Casement

adam240610

adam240610___6.6____16.6____-3.7____100____100____10_Valentia

appledrop

Appledrop___6.3___15.3___-3.5___93___100___12.8 Valentia, since its Valentines day!

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.1 __ 17.0 __ -4.5 __ 070 __ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

NormaL ________________ 5.3 __ 15.8 __ -7.0 __ 100 __ 100 ____10.5 _ location scored by climatology

(the "normal" highest max is assumed to be a little higher than the highest normal max if you follow, by random distribution, but as I don't have max and min data handy, assuming Shannon's Feb mean to be nearly the highest if not the highest, adding a bit to what I assume is their mean maximum of around 10 C).

Table of forecasts when I have time and after the usual suspects have all posted (have not checked that very carefully yet) ...

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ________________ 6.4 __ 16.4 __ -5.9__ 110 __ 105 ____10.9 Sherkin Island

dacogawa

Dacogawa___5.9___15.7___-5.5___95___105___12.2 Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for February 2023

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ 14th max, loc'n

M.T. Cranium ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

Tae laidir ______________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -3.7 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 10.9 _ Valentia

Gonzo ________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 _ Shannon

esposito _______________6.7 _ 16.3 _ -2.4 _ 095 _ 114 ___ 14.9 _ Valentia

adam240610 ___________6.6 _ 16.6 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ Valentia

Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

200motels _____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

Pauldry _______________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 11.2 _ Belmullet

sryanbruen ____________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 _ Phoenix Park

Bsal __________________6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

Sunflower3 ____________ 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 090 ____ 9.5 _ Phoenix Park

Jpmarn _______________ 6.4 _ 16.4 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

___ Con Sensus ________6.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia (see summary)

Kindred Spirit __________ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 098 _ 110 ___ 13.0 _ Mt. Dillon

Rameire ______________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 _ Valentia

Cornerstonelad _________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -5.2 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 16.1 _ Valentia

Appledrop ____________6.3 _ 15.3 _ -3.5 _ 093 _ 100 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

WolfeEire ______________6.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.7 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 9.2 _ Gurteen

Dasa29 _______________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ Mullingar

Dacogawa _____________ 5.9 _ 15.7 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

DOCARCH _____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

waterways _____________5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ___ 10.4 _ Valentia

Joe Public _____________ 5.5 _ 15.9 _ -5.4 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

john mac ______________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 _ Belmullet

___ NormaL ___________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 _ location scored by climatology

Mr stonewall ___________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.1 _ 081 _ 088 ____ 9.9 _ Belmullet

====================================

For the bonus location, NormaL scores by climatology. Con Sensus scores as follows:

Valentia _____ 8 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 3, if second, Con scores 2, if third, Con scores 1 unless PP, Bel, Case, SI score 2.

Phoenix Park _ 5 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

Belmullet ____ 3 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

Casement ____ 2 picks ___If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

Sherkin Island _ 2 picks __ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

all others picked (1 each) include

Shannon, Newport, Gurteen, Mullingar, MtDillon _ If one is correct, Con scores 1.

If warmest location is none of our picks, Con scores zero. We then go on to this scoring ...

Aside from the warmest location(s) unchosen by anybody, our scoring is based on order of finish of picked locations

regardless of whether there was a warmer location, so only the picked locations are compared, highest scores 3, second highest 2 and

third highest and any within 1.0 C of second place score 1.

NormaL scores for location by climatology. Any of our picks but Gurteen and Mullingar would score 3. Also Moorepark scores 3.

Gurteen, Mullingar, Johnstown, Cork, Roches Point, Athenry, Dublin, Oak Park score 2.

Finner, Mace Head, Dunsany, Claremorris score 1 and Knock, Ballyhaise, Malin Head, Markree score 0.

Tae laidir

Oak Park was 13.2 yesterday.

waterways

MT Dillon and Athenry had -2 earlier

M.T. Cranium

Overtaken by -4 by 0600h at Mullingar and Mountdillon at various times.

pauldry

-4.3c Mullingar and Mt Dillon possibly close to this too.

WolfeEire

Lowest at Mount Dillon and Athenry was minus 3.6c. Could have dipped lower in between these half hour readings of course.

https://wow.met.ie/stations/20230205xournxffiwe65gsrrymrfquiga

Tae laidir

Mullingar shows -4.3 for yesterday's weather.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT 7.0 which is 1.8 above normal.

MAX 13.2 and MIN -4.3

PRC only 17% of normal.

SUN 76.3% of normal, west rather cloudy.

14th looking rather mild.

Our driest forecast (high fives) is 70 per cent which would now require 88% of normal for the next three weeks.

M.T. Cranium

Setting up for the bonus question, warmest temp on 14th ... from the table of entries, but in order of temperature for this alone.

Cornerstonelad _________16.1 _ Valentia

esposito ______________ 14.9 _ Valentia

200motels _____________13.5 _ Phoenix Park

Dasa29 _______________13.5 _ Mullingar

Gonzo ________________13.4 _ Shannon

Artane2002 ____________13.2 _ Phoenix Park

DOCARCH _____________13.1 _ Phoenix Park

Tae laidir ______________13.0 _ Casement

Bsal __________________13.0 _ Casement

Kindred Spirit __________ 13.0 _ Mt. Dillon

Appledrop ___________ 12.8 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ____________ 12.6 _ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa _____________12.2 _ Valentia

___ Con Sensus ________ 12.2 _ Valentia

Rameire ______________ 11.8 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium __________ 11.5 _ Newport

Pauldry _______________ 11.2 _ Belmullet

MrSkinner _____________10.9 _ Valentia

Jpmarn _______________ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

Joe Public _____________10.9 _ Sherkin Island

___ NormaL ___________10.5 _ location scored by climatology

waterways ____________ 10.4 _ Valentia

john mac _____________ 10.1 _ Belmullet

adam240610 ___________10.0 _ Valentia

Mr stonewall ___________ 9.9 _ Belmullet

Sunflower3 ____________ 9.5 _ Phoenix Park

WolfeEire ______________ 9.2 _ Gurteen

====================================

The 12z GFS guidance says 12 C in the vicinity of Claremorris to Mountdillon.

pauldry

14 or 15c possible tomorrow in a mild Southerly airflow.

Probably 13c in the West more 14c or 15c in the East where more sunshine.

pauldry

Claremorris and Athenry winning so far on 14c

pauldry

15c pheonix Park odds on to win now though its also 15c in parts of Donegal

appledrop

I'm surprised by that pauldry as certainly doesn't feel that warm in North County Dublin as nippy breeze, must be coming in from the sea.

M.T. Cranium

Will score the bonus tomorrow when the numbers are official, but can already say that the only detail not already decided is whether cornerstonelad is in with the leading three (Esposito 14.9, 200motels and Dasa29) or not, if the 15 turns out to be 14.8 or higher, then yes, if 14.5 to 14.7 then it would be six points (out of seven) along with Gonzo at 13.4. The scoring for temperature will likely be groups of three and occasionally four, between top score of seven and bottom score of one point.

It's the location part of this that will need more precise numbers as I had a rule about points being available for any guess within 1.0 of the second highest location and by the way that would mean second among our picks, so if Claremorris happened to be second in the country, or Malin Head, that would be ignored for the purposes of scoring locations. Only the places we select are compared for settling 3-2-1 points.

There will also be a week two update at the same time as the bonus scoring confirmation.

WolfeEire

So what you're saying MTC , is that my 9.2c wasn't right? 😓😜

WolfeEire

Phoenix Park,Dublin reached 15.9°C today

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1625610584858173454

pauldry

Ya it was 14c in Sligo but didn't feel warm though in the brief sunny spells maybe. This month will be crazily above average

M.T. Cranium

Scoring report for the 14th February bonus question

FORECASTER __________temp (pts) _ location (pts) __ s.b. ____ TOTAL

Cornerstonelad _________16.1 _ 7 ___ Valentia ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ 7

esposito ______________ 14.9 _ 7 ___ Valentia ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ 7

200motels _____________13.5 _ 6 ___ Phoenix Park 3 ____ 1 ___ 10

Dasa29 _______________13.5 _ 6 ___ Mullingar ___ 0 __________ 6

Gonzo ________________13.4 _ 6 ___ Shannon ___ 1 __________ 7

Artane2002 ____________13.2 _ 5 ___ Phoenix Park 3 __________ 8

DOCARCH _____________13.1 _ 5 ___ Phoenix Park 3 __________ 8

Tae laidir ______________13.0 _ 5 ___ Casement __ 1 __________ 6

Bsal __________________13.0 _ 5 ___ Casement __ 1 __________ 6

Kindred Spirit __________ 13.0 _ 5 ___ Mt. Dillon __ 2 ___________7

Appledrop ____________12.8 _ 4 ___ Valentia ___ 0 ___________ 4

sryanbruen ____________ 12.6 _ 4 ___ Phoenix Park 3 __________ 7

Dacogawa _____________12.2 _ 4 ___ Valentia ____ 0 __________ 4

___ Con Sensus ________ 12.2 _ 4 ___ Valentia ____ 2 (PP) ______ 6

Rameire ______________ 11.8 _ 3 ___ Valentia ____ 0 __________ 3

M.T. Cranium __________ 11.5 _ 3 ___ Newport ____ 0 __________ 3

Pauldry _______________ 11.2 _ 3 ___ Belmullet __ 0 ___________ 3

MrSkinner _____________10.9 _ 2 ___ Valentia ____0 ___________ 2

Jpmarn _______________10.9 _ 2 ___ Sherkin Is __ 0 ___________ 2

Joe Public _____________10.9 _ 2 ___ Sherkin Is __ 0 ___________ 2

___ NormaL ___________10.5 _ 2 ___ climatology _ 3 ___________ 5

waterways ____________ 10.4 _ 2 ___ Valentia ____0 ___________ 2

john mac _____________ 10.1 _ 1 ___ Belmullet ___0 ___________ 1

adam240610 ___________10.0 _ 1 ___ Valentia ___ 0 ___________ 1

Mr stonewall ___________ 9.9 _ 1 ___ Belmullet ___ 0 ___________ 1

Sunflower3 ____________ 9.5 _ 1 ___ Phoenix Park _3 ___________ 4

WolfeEire ______________ 9.2 _ 1 ___ Gurteen ____ 0 ___________ 1

===================

Max temps at locations in contest (and not selected, in brackets in offset list)

Contest points include 1/3 for any within 1.0 of second place (2/3). PP is 3/3. Mtd is 2/3 14.6 Cas is 1/3 14.2

... only Shannon (14.1) was within that range to also score 1/3. Con Sensus scores for 2nd number of picks (PP).

Pts __ Location ___________________ non-selected locations

3 ___ 15.9 Phoenix Park ___________ (14.9 Finner)

2 ___ 14.6 Mountdillon ____________ (14.6 Claremorris, 14.4 Malin Head, Athenry)

1 ___ 14.2 Casement _____________ (14.2 Dublin)

1 ___ 14.1 Shannon ______________ (13.9 Markree)

0 ___ 13.4 Mullingar ______________ (13.4 Ballyhaise)

0 ___ 13.3 Newport _______________

0 ___ 13.2 Gurteen ________________ (13.0 Dunsany)

0 ___ 12.8 Valentia ________________ (12.7 Oak Park, Knock)

0 ___ 12.3 Belmullet _______________ (12.5 Moorepark, Mace Head 12.1)

0 ___ 11.8 Sherkin Island ___________ (11.5 Roches Point, 11.3 Johnstown, 11.1 Cork)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Second week report after 1300h when the data are available (for ag report) ... IMT looks like it will be 7.4 C.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 7.3, the second week average 7.6 (2.2 above normal).

MAX 15.9 MIN -4.3

PRC 20% of normal, second week again quite dry at 22%.

SUN now at 74.8% of normal, the second week was very similar to first week at 73.3%.

BONUS 15.9 Phoenix Park, scored above.

... It would now require 120% of normal precip to reach our lowest forecast of 70% which is a bit more than models are currently showing.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT at its probable high point of 8.1 C, with the third week average 9.8 which was 4.3 above normal. The IMT will likely end up closer to 7 C with the colder weather expected to end of month.

MAX 15.9 MIN -4.3 .. MAX looks safe, not sure about MIN.

PRC now up slightly to 44% of normal, as the third week was almost at the average (91% of normal). Even so, a rather dry week ahead means we only have a guarantee of 33% and the likely outcome is about 40% so that would definitely force scoring over to minimum progression as our lowest forecast was 70%.

SUN now even lower at 68% of normal, with this past week quite dull (55% of normal, Valentia managed only 15%). This coming week is likely to be a bit above average perhaps but hard to see how this gets past 75% now, and almost all of us went above normal, MrStonewall has the lowest forecast of 88%. Once again, minimum progression required here.

BONUS turned into a second on-stage appearance for MAX, and is worth the number of points you see in the post on the 15th.

Since just about everything is more or less settled, here's a look at the preliminary scoring, which might be a level above just sayin scoring.

Preliminary scoring for February 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

___ Estimated values ____7.1 _15.9 _-4.3 _040 _075__15.9_P Park

M.T. Cranium ___________25 _ 09 _ 18 _ 15*_ 01*___ 3 _ 0 ______ 71

Tae laidir ______________ 24 _ 16 _ 10 _ 04*_ 07*___ 5 _ 1 ______ 67

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 07*___ 2 _ 0 ______ 71

Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 15 _ 08 _ 14*_ 05*___ 6 _ 1 ______ 71

esposito _______________21 _ 16 _ 01 _ 10*_ 03*___ 7 _ 0 ______ 58

adam240610 ___________20 _ 13 _ 14 _ 08*_ 08*___ 1 _ 0 ______ 64

Artane2002 ____________20 _ 15 _ 12 _ 13*_ 06*___ 5 _ 3 ______ 74

200motels _____________20 _ 15 _ 14 _ 12*_ 04*___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 ___ 75

Pauldry _______________ 20 _ 16 _ 08 _ 11*_ 06*___ 3 _ 0 ______ 64

sryanbruen ____________ 19 _ 17 _ 18 _ 13*_ 03*___ 4 _ 3 ______ 77

Bsal __________________18 _ 09 _ 07 _ 06*_ 05*___ 5 _ 1 ______ 51

Sunflower3 ____________ 18 _ 11 _ 15 _ 14*_ 10*___ 1 _ 3 ______ 72

Jpmarn _______________ 18 _ 15 _ 04 _ 06*_ 06*___ 2 _ 0 ______ 51

___ Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 17 _ 18 _ 10* _ 06*___ 4 _ 3 ______ 76

Kindred Spirit __________ 18 _ 19 _ 17 _ 10*_ 05*___ 5 _ 2 ______ 76

Rameire ______________ 18 _ 20 _ 12 _ 11*_ 07*___ 3 _ 0 ______ 71

Cornerstonelad _________ 17 _ 16 _ 11 _ 09*_ 02*___ 7 _ 0 ______ 62

Appledrop ____________17 _ 14 _ 12 _ 12*_ 08*___ 4 _ 0 ______ 67

WolfeEire ______________15 _ 01 _ 14 _ 14*_ 04 ___ 1 _ 0 ______ 49

Dasa29 _______________ 14 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06*_ 08*___ 6 _ 0 ______ 57

Dacogawa _____________ 13 _ 18 _ 08 _ 11*_ 07*___ 4 _ 0 ______ 61

DOCARCH _____________ 12 _ 14 _ 16 _ 14*_ 05*___ 5 _ 3 ______ 69

waterways _____________11 _ 00 _ 01 _ 07*_ 09*___ 2 _ 0 ______ 30

Joe Public ______________09 _ 20 _ 09 _ 02*_ 09*___ 2 _ 0 ______ 51

john mac ______________ 08 _ 17 _ 08 _ 09*_ 07*___ 1 _ 0 ______ 50

___ NormaL ___________ 07 _ 19 _ 00 _ 08*_ 08*___ 2 _ 3 ______ 47

Mr stonewall ___________ 05 _ 02 _ 00 _ 15*_ 10*___ 1 _ 0 ______ 33

====================================

*scores derived from minimum progression _ lenient approach given the low profile of bonus scoring.

SCORING WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED (IMT and MIN the most likely sources of error here)

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Bonus

___ Estimated values ____7.1 _ 15.9 _ -4.3 _ 040 _ 075 ___ 15.9 _ P Park

M.T. Cranium ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

Tae laidir ______________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -3.7 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 10.9 _ Valentia

Gonzo ________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 _ Shannon

esposito _______________6.7 _ 16.3 _ -2.4 _ 095 _ 114 ___ 14.9 _ Valentia

adam240610 ___________6.6 _ 16.6 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ Valentia

Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

200motels _____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

Pauldry _______________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 11.2 _ Belmullet

sryanbruen ____________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 _ Phoenix Park

Bsal __________________6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

Sunflower3 ____________ 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 090 ____ 9.5 _ Phoenix Park

Jpmarn _______________ 6.4 _ 16.4 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

___ Con Sensus ________6.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia (see summary)

Kindred Spirit __________ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 098 _ 110 ___ 13.0 _ Mt. Dillon

Rameire ______________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 _ Valentia

Cornerstonelad _________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -5.2 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 16.1 _ Valentia

Appledrop ____________6.3 _ 15.3 _ -3.5 _ 093 _ 100 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

WolfeEire ______________6.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.7 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 9.2 _ Gurteen

Dasa29 _______________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ Mullingar

Dacogawa _____________ 5.9 _ 15.7 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

DOCARCH _____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

waterways _____________5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ___ 10.4 _ Valentia

Joe Public _____________ 5.5 _ 15.9 _ -5.4 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

john mac ______________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 _ Belmullet

___ NormaL ___________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 _ location scored by climatology

Mr stonewall ___________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.1 _ 081 _ 088 ____ 9.9 _ Belmullet

====================================

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 7.7 after 25th. Expect 1-2 fewer points for all on IMT, all other elements on track for the above estimates.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, and the end of the month ...

IMT finished 7.4 (from 7.36), the fourth week was 5.1, 0.9 below normal. Will probably score from 7.2 as a means to apply a small necessary upward adjustment to all scores, if I go with 7.4 the scoring will have the same differentials.

MAX 15.9 and MIN -4.3 to be checked tomorrow from MS.

PRC has ended up 36% of normal. The fourth week was quite dry at 12%. Scoring already provided will be valid.

SUN had a bit of a boost to 84% with the fourth week average 140% of normal. That may change the preliminary scoring very slightly, will wait to see if my estimate matches the MS sunshine results because there's often a bit of a difference between the climate based percentages and the average of weekly values.

BONUS was already scored above in a previous post.

So for now, assume the preliminary scoring in a previous post is fairly close to the outcomes that will appear tomorrow, at which time I can blend in the two-month annual totals and the winter portion of four seasons contest.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for February 2023

_ update _ everything checked out in the MS, SUN was a bit higher than my week to week calculation, and came in at 89%. This removed the necessity of minimum progression scoring for SUN, and boosted most scores by 1 or 2 points (a few stayed even). The monthly and annual scoring has been adjusted.

As scoring was fairly good in general, and there was no fair way to apply a boost to IMT, I went with raw scores and found that only the top two or three were one point below minimum progression, and most of the others were above. The four seasons post will also be edited soon.

Congrats to sryanbruen, 200motels and Kindred Spirit for tying or beating Con Sensus, no easy task. Also congrats to DOCARCH for leading the annual scoring, look out for the newbie in second though.

FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS

___ Confirmed values ____7.4 _15.9 _-4.3 _036 _089__15.9_P Park

sryanbruen ____________ 16 _ 17 _ 18 _ 13*_ 05 ___ 4 _ 3 ______ 76

Kindred Spirit __________ 15 _ 19 _ 17 _ 10*_ 06 ___ 5 _ 2 ______ 74

200motels _____________17 _ 15 _ 14 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 ___ 74

___ Con Sensus ________ 15 _ 17 _ 18 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 4 _ 3 ______ 74

Artane2002 ____________17 _ 15 _ 12 _ 13*_ 06 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 71

M.T. Cranium ___________22 _ 09 _ 18 _ 15*_ 03 ___ 3 _ 0 ______ 70

Sunflower3 ____________ 15 _ 11 _ 15 _ 14*_ 10 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 69

MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 69

Gonzo ________________ 19 _ 15 _ 08 _ 14*_ 06 ___ 6 _ 1 ______ 69

Rameire _______________15 _ 20 _ 12 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 3 _ 0 ______ 68

DOCARCH _____________ 09 _ 14 _ 16 _ 14*_ 06 ___ 5 _ 3 ______ 67

Tae laidir ______________ 21 _ 16 _ 10 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 64

Appledrop ____________14 _ 14 _ 12 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 64

Pauldry _______________ 17 _ 16 _ 08 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 3 _ 0 ______ 62

adam240610 ___________17 _ 13 _ 14 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 1 _ 0 ______ 61

Cornerstonelad _________ 14 _ 16 _ 11 _ 09*_ 04 ___ 7 _ 0 ______ 61

Dacogawa _____________ 10 _ 18 _ 08 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 4 _ 0 ______ 58

esposito _______________18 _ 16 _ 01 _ 10*_ 05 ___ 7 _ 0 ______ 57

Dasa29 _______________ 11 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 6 _ 0 ______ 54

Bsal __________________15 _ 09 _ 07 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 5 _ 1 ______ 49

Jpmarn _______________ 15 _ 15 _ 04 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 49

Joe Public ______________06 _ 20 _ 09 _ 02*_ 09 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 48

john mac ______________ 05 _ 17 _ 08 _ 09*_ 07 ___ 1 _ 0 ______ 47

WolfeEire ______________ 12 _ 01 _ 14 _ 14*_ 05 ___ 1 _ 0 ______ 47

___ NormaL ___________ 04 _ 19 _ 00 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 2 _ 3 ______ 44

Mr stonewall ___________ 02 _ 02 _ 00 _ 15*_ 10 ___ 1 _ 0 ______ 30

waterways _____________08 _ 00 _ 01 _ 07*_ 09 ___ 2 _ 0 ______ 27

====================================

*scores derived from minimum progression _ lenient approach given the low profile of bonus scoring.

___ Annual scoring summary Jan-Feb 2023 ___

At this early stage, the category scoring is combined with the usual annual summary. They will become separate reports in March.

Rank _FORECASTER _________IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _BONUS __ JAN _ FEB ___ TOTAL SCORE (before late pens)

_00 _ Max Possible __________50 _ 40 _ 40 _ 30 _ 20 ___ 20 ______ 100 ___100 ______ 200

_01 _ DOCARCH ____________27 _ 30 _ 30 _ 28 _ 15 ___ 14 ______ 77 ____ 67 ______ 144

_(01.7)_ Con Sensus ________ 35 _ 26 _ 29 _ 21 _ 15 ___ 13 ______ 65 ____ 74 ______ 139

_02 _ M.T. Cranium __________43 _ 15 _ 29 _ 29 _ 13 ___ 08 ______ 67 ____ 70 ______ 137

_03 _ Kindred Spirit _________ 26 _ 29 _ 30 _ 20 _ 13 ___ 14 ______ 58 ____ 74 ______ 132

_04 _ WolfeEire _____________30 _ 17 _ 30 _ 25 _ 11 ___ 10 ______ 76 ____ 47 ______ 123

_t5 _ adam240610 __________ 30 _ 23 _ 30 _ 18 _ 14 ___ 07 ______ 61 ____ 61 ______ 122

_t5 _ sryanbruen ____________38 _ 19 _ 23 _ 23 _ 11 ___ 08 ______ 46 ____ 76 ______ 122

_t7 _ Artane2002 ___________ 38 _ 18 _ 15 _ 24 _ 15 ___ 11 ______ 50 ____ 71 ______ 121

_t7 _ Dacogawa _____________31 _ 21 _ 28 _ 16 _ 16 ___ 09 ______ 63 ____ 58 ______ 121

_09 _ Bsal _________________ 39 _ 26 _ 20 _ 11 _ 14 ___ 10 ______ 71 ____ 49 ______ 120

_10 _ Appledrop ____________ 38 _ 20 _ 15 _ 20 _ 17 ___ 07 ______ 53 ____ 64 ______ 117

_11 _ Sunflower3 ____________37 _ 17 _ 17 _ 19 _ 15 ___ 11 ______ 47 ____ 69 ______ 116

_t12_ Dasa29 _______________27 _ 24 _ 21 _ 16 _ 17 ___ 10 ______ 61 ____ 54 ______ 115

_t12_ Gonzo _______________ 36 _ 19 _ 09 _ 28 _ 12 ___ 11 ______ 46 ____ 69 ______ 115

_t12_ 200 motels ___________ 37 _ 22 _ 21 _ 24 _ 12 ___ 13__55-14=41 ____ 74 ______ 115 (129)_4th

_15 _ Pauldry _______________26 _ 26 _ 18 _ 23 _ 14 ___ 05 ______ 50 ____ 62 ______ 112

_ 16_ esposito ______________ 41 _ 20 _ 03 _ 23 _ 13 ___ 11 ______ 54 ____ 57 ______ 111

(16.0)_ NormaL ___________ 21 _ 22 _ 17 _ 21 _ 15 ___ 15 ______ 67 ____ 44 ______ 111

_t17_ Jpmarn _______________29 _ 15 _ 21 _ 20 _ 15 ___ 10 ______ 61 ____ 49 ______ 110

_t17 _ Cornerstonelad ________35 _ 25 _ 16 _ 18 _ 10 ___ 13 ___ 56-7=49 __ 61 ______ 110 (117)_t10

_19 _ john mac _____________ 24 _ 19 _ 17 _ 19 _ 15 ___ 11 ______ 58 ____ 47 ______ 105

_20 _ Tae laidir _____________ 45 _ 16 _ 11 _ 05 _ 13 ___ 12 ______ 38 ____ 64 ______ 102

_t21_ Joe Public _____________16 _ 34 _ 09 _ 15 _ 17 ___ 03 ______ 46 ____ 48 _______94

_t21_ MrSkinner ____________ 35 _ 17 _ 19 _ 08 _ 11 ___ 04 ______ 25 ____ 69 _______ 94

_23 _ waterways ____________ 22 _ 15 _ 08 _ 07 _ 15 ___ 12 ______ 52 ____ 27 _______79

_t24 _Rameire _(min score Jan)_34 _ 20 _ 14 _ 18 _ 11 ___ 09 _ 38 -->10 ____ 68 _______78 (106)_19th

_t24 _Rebelbrowser (1/2) _____ 15 _ 16 _ 18*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 78 ____ --- _______78

_26 _ Mr.stonewall __________17 _ 11 _ 10 _ 15 _ 12 ___ 10 ______ 45 ____ 30 _______ 75

_27 _ Danno (1/2) ___________13 _ 20 _ 02*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 58 ____ --- _______58

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan+Feb totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

MIN has four tied for top score so 2nd and 3rd are not shown.

PRC has two tied for second so 3rd is not shown.

SUN has three tied for top score so 2nd and 3rd are not shown.

BONUS _ NormaL has a higher score (15) than top two forecasters (14). Second place is not shown. Third (13) has two tied forecasters and also Con Sensus. These are the only top three outcomes for either Con Sensus or NormaL. Despite that, Con Sensus is second in total scoring.

Category and annual scoring will be adjusted if Feb scoring is adjusted (SUN the only likely category for any adjustment)

=================================

(actual forecasts February 2023)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Bonus

M.T. Cranium ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

Tae laidir ______________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -3.7 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 10.9 _ Valentia

Gonzo ________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 _ Shannon

esposito _______________6.7 _ 16.3 _ -2.4 _ 095 _ 114 ___ 14.9 _ Valentia

adam240610 ___________6.6 _ 16.6 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ Valentia

Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

200motels _____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

Pauldry _______________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 11.2 _ Belmullet

sryanbruen ____________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 _ Phoenix Park

Bsal __________________6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

Sunflower3 ____________ 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 090 ____ 9.5 _ Phoenix Park

Jpmarn _______________ 6.4 _ 16.4 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

___ Con Sensus ________6.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia (see summary)

Kindred Spirit __________ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 098 _ 110 ___ 13.0 _ Mt. Dillon

Rameire ______________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 _ Valentia

Cornerstonelad _________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -5.2 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 16.1 _ Valentia

Appledrop ____________6.3 _ 15.3 _ -3.5 _ 093 _ 100 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

WolfeEire ______________6.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.7 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 9.2 _ Gurteen

Dasa29 _______________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ Mullingar

Dacogawa _____________ 5.9 _ 15.7 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

DOCARCH _____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

waterways _____________5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ___ 10.4 _ Valentia

Joe Public _____________ 5.5 _ 15.9 _ -5.4 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

john mac ______________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 _ Belmullet

___ NormaL ___________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 _ location scored by climatology

Mr stonewall ___________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.1 _ 081 _ 088 ____ 9.9 _ Belmullet

====================================

M.T. Cranium

Four seasons contest __ Winter segment

Total scores for Dec-Jan-Feb are awarded points as follows: 10 for first, 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, 5 for 4th, 4 for 5th, 3 for 6th, 2 for 7th, and 1 point for either finishing 8th to 12th or if not, exceeding 180 points. Totals are shown only for those forecasters entering all three months. The February component is subject to any slight adjustments that might occur later today. Points for Con Sensus and Normal are to decimal precision and are based on where those totals fall against the forecaster points list.

FORECASTER _______ Dec __ Jan __ Feb _____ TOTAL ___ Points

adam240610 _________86 ___ 61 ___ 61 _____ 208 ____ 10

DOCARCH ___________ 60 ___ 77 ___ 67 _____ 204 _____ 7

sryanbruen __________ 74 ___ 46 ___ 76 _____ 196 _____ 6

WolfeEire ____________67 ___ 76 ___ 47 _____ 190 _____ 5

___ Con Sensus ______ 51 ___ 65 ___ 74 _____ 190 _____ 5.0

Gonzo ______________ 65 ___ 46 ___ 69 _____ 180 _____ 4

Kindred Spirit ________ 48 ___ 58 ___ 74 _____ 180 _____ 4

Artane2002 __________58 ___ 50 ___ 71 _____ 179 _____ 2

Dacogawa ___________ 64 ___ 63 ___ 58 _____ 175 _____ 1

200motels __________ 62 ___ 41 ___ 74 _____ 175 _____ 1

Sunflower3 __________ 56 ___ 47 ___ 69 _____ 172 _____ 1

esposito ____________ 60 ___ 54 ___ 57 _____ 171 _____ 1

Appledrop ___________ 53 ___ 53 ___ 64 _____ 170 _____ 1

Jpmarn _____________ 58 ___ 61 ___ 49 _____ 168

M.T. Cranium ________ 30 ___ 67 ___ 70 _____ 167

__ NormaL __________ 53 ___ 67 ___ 44 _____ 164

Bsal ________________40 ___ 71 ___ 49 _____ 160

Joe Public ___________ 61 ___ 46 ___ 48 _____ 155

Dasa29 _____________32 ___ 61 ___ 54 _____ 147

Pauldry _____________35 ___ 50 ___ 62 _____ 147

john mac ____________41 ___ 58 ___ 47 _____ 146

Tae laidir ____________40 ___ 38 ___ 64 _____ 142

MrSkinner ___________ 47 ___ 25 ___ 69 _____ 141

Mr stonewall _________ 64 ___ 45 ___ 30 _____ 139

waterways ___________47 ___ 52 ___ 27 _____ 126