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February 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-01-2023 11:07pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,226 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.3 C.

    2. Predict the MAX and

    3. MIN (each from the 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

    4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

    5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

    6. BONUS _ For the 14th, what will be the warmest maximum temperature at the standard weather reporting locations (as seen on the met.ie website under current weather and yesterday's weather) and what will be their daily maximum? (seven points for temperature accuracy, three for location, 1-2 pt superbonus available).

    Deadline as always is 0300h 1st (Wednesday, meaning late Tuesday evening past midnight) and late penalties are 1 point for every four hours or portion, up to 36h (1500h 2nd) (nine penalty points at that time) after which the penalty increases to one point per hour.

    Minimum score regardless of actual score from the rules after late penalties is 10/100, except that entries are not permitted after 6th (end of day).



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 Phoenix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire ________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 Valentia

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________ 6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 Phoenix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭esposito


    esposito ________ 6.7_ 16.3 _ -2.4_ 095 _ 114___ 14.9 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 891 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    WolfEire ________ 6.1_14_-3.7_88_113_9.2 Gurteen

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 Shannon



  • Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit _____ 6.4 ___ 16.0 ___ -4 ___ 98 ___ 110 ___ 13.0 Mt. Dillon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad_____6.3___15.5___-5.2__99___120___16.1 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels------------- 6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 Phoenix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,763 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal ________ 6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 Casement



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,801 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry_______ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5_ 97 _ 105 ___ 11.2 Belmullet

    Post edited by pauldry on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public________ 5.5_ 15.9 _ -5.4_ 130 _ 95___ 10.9 Sherkin Island



  • Registered Users Posts: 535 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 Mullingar



  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____6.9____15.6____-3.7____101____101____10.9Valentia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3------------- 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 90 ___ 9.5 Phoenix Park



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,525 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 Phoenix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 370 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ___________ 5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ____ 10.4 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___5.1___14.1___-7.1___81__88__9.9 belmullet



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,091 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 belmullet



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 Casement



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  • Registered Users Posts: 807 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610___6.6____16.6____-3.7____100____100____10_Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop___6.3___15.3___-3.5___93___100___12.8 Valentia, since its Valentines day!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,226 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ____________ 7.1 __ 17.0 __ -4.5 __ 070 __ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

    NormaL ________________ 5.3 __ 15.8 __ -7.0 __ 100 __ 100 ____10.5 _ location scored by climatology


    (the "normal" highest max is assumed to be a little higher than the highest normal max if you follow, by random distribution, but as I don't have max and min data handy, assuming Shannon's Feb mean to be nearly the highest if not the highest, adding a bit to what I assume is their mean maximum of around 10 C).

    Table of forecasts when I have time and after the usual suspects have all posted (have not checked that very carefully yet) ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,471 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn  ________________ 6.4 __ 16.4 __ -5.9__ 110 __ 105 ____10.9 Sherkin Island



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa___5.9___15.7___-5.5___95___105___12.2 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,226 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Table of forecasts for February 2023


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ 14th max, loc'n


    M.T. Cranium ___________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 11.5 _ Newport

    Tae laidir ______________ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

    MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.6 _ -3.7 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 10.9 _ Valentia

    Gonzo ________________ 6.8 _ 16.4 _ -3.1 _ 087 _ 107 ___ 13.4 _ Shannon

    esposito _______________6.7 _ 16.3 _ -2.4 _ 095 _ 114 ___ 14.9 _ Valentia

    adam240610 ___________6.6 _ 16.6 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ Valentia

    Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

    200motels _____________6.6 _ 16.4 _ -4.9 _ 092 _ 111 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

    Pauldry _______________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -5.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 11.2 _ Belmullet

    sryanbruen ____________ 6.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 12.6 _ Phoenix Park

    Bsal __________________6.4 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ 13.0 _ Casement

    Sunflower3 ____________ 6.4 _ 16.8 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 090 ____ 9.5 _ Phoenix Park

    Jpmarn _______________ 6.4 _ 16.4 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

    ___ Con Sensus ________6.4 _ 16.2 _ -4.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia (see summary)

    Kindred Spirit __________ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 098 _ 110 ___ 13.0 _ Mt. Dillon

    Rameire ______________ 6.4 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 096 _ 104 ___ 11.8 _ Valentia

    Cornerstonelad _________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -5.2 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 16.1 _ Valentia

    Appledrop ____________6.3 _ 15.3 _ -3.5 _ 093 _ 100 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

    WolfeEire ______________6.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.7 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 9.2 _ Gurteen

    Dasa29 _______________ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ Mullingar

    Dacogawa _____________ 5.9 _ 15.7 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

    DOCARCH _____________ 5.8 _ 15.3 _ -4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

    waterways _____________5.7 _ 13.3 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 093 ___ 10.4 _ Valentia

    Joe Public _____________ 5.5 _ 15.9 _ -5.4 _ 130 _ 095 ___ 10.9 _ Sherkin Island

    john mac ______________ 5.4 _ 16.2 _ -5.5 _ 099 _ 105 ___ 10.1 _ Belmullet


    ___ NormaL ___________ 5.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.5 _ location scored by climatology


    Mr stonewall ___________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -7.1 _ 081 _ 088 ____ 9.9 _ Belmullet

    ====================================

    For the bonus location, NormaL scores by climatology. Con Sensus scores as follows:

    Valentia _____ 8 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 3, if second, Con scores 2, if third, Con scores 1 unless PP, Bel, Case, SI score 2.

    Phoenix Park _ 5 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

    Belmullet ____ 3 picks ___ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

    Casement ____ 2 picks ___If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

    Sherkin Island _ 2 picks __ If correct, Con scores 2, if second, Con scores 1.

    all others picked (1 each) include

    Shannon, Newport, Gurteen, Mullingar, MtDillon _ If one is correct, Con scores 1.

    If warmest location is none of our picks, Con scores zero. We then go on to this scoring ...

    Aside from the warmest location(s) unchosen by anybody, our scoring is based on order of finish of picked locations

    regardless of whether there was a warmer location, so only the picked locations are compared, highest scores 3, second highest 2 and

    third highest and any within 1.0 C of second place score 1.

    NormaL scores for location by climatology. Any of our picks but Gurteen and Mullingar would score 3. Also Moorepark scores 3.

    Gurteen, Mullingar, Johnstown, Cork, Roches Point, Athenry, Dublin, Oak Park score 2.

    Finner, Mace Head, Dunsany, Claremorris score 1 and Knock, Ballyhaise, Malin Head, Markree score 0.



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park was 13.2 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 370 ✭✭waterways


    MT Dillon and Athenry had -2 earlier



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,226 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Overtaken by -4 by 0600h at Mullingar and Mountdillon at various times.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,801 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -4.3c Mullingar and Mt Dillon possibly close to this too.



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