Don't sign up to Flogas new fixed rate electricity

walterking

Flogas are getting quite a bit of publicity for their new fixed rate plan that has slightly reduced rates.

https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2023/01/10/first-fixed-price-energy-deal-hits-market-in-sign-of-hope-for-consumers/

Bonkers say they are good value - They are NOT "good value" unless you are simply comparing today's prices and not understanding the commodity market

Business electricity rates which more closely track the changes in the electricity market have dropped substantially recently from a high of almost 60c to 35c-38c and set for further drops in the next few weeks. Consumer pricing moves slower, but I am quite confident that decent price reduction will be announced in the next few weeks and will bring rates under 35c and if gas prices stay at current levels and lower (no reason they won't as almost all Russian supply has been replaced) unit rates in the 25c-30c range will be back by summer.

So in my opinion as someone who tracks commodity prices, this is a bad deal and best avoided.

1373

It's sounds mental alright, there was no sign of this offer of helping customers 12 months ago . If people sign up to this, they will use it as an excuse not to drop prices because fixed price customers will be stung

zell12

But, in December, Ryan said..

https://www.thejournal.ie/gas-electricity-prices-high-two-years-eamon-ryan-5954818-Dec2022/

Mav11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120092993#Comment_120092993

Not disagreeing with the OP, but can you not get out of the contract for €50?

Cape Clear

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058278971/dont-sign-up-to-flogas-new-fixed-rate-electricity

I fail to see any consumer issue in your post.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120093164#Comment_120093164

Worth checking the T&C's of the contract. Also worth looking at the clause relating to the €150 welcome credit as some providers mention clawing this back in the event that you exit the contract within 12 months. I was with Airtricity briefly and benefited from €250 in cashback, when I left after 6 months I was only charged the €50 early breakage fee. EI do stipulate in their T&C's that the cashback is to be paid back in the event of early termination by the customer. I don't see prices falling until April tbh.

Calahonda52

12 months contracts now back as market has peaked for this winter so lock in the consumer now

John_Rambo

Bonkers.ie has no reputation now. Constantly pushing flogas when they're clearly not the right option.

I ran mine through Bonkers and it told me to stick with what I have, Bord Gais

tjhook

Thanks all above - I had seen the publicity and assumed the offer wasn't just Flogas being charitable. Good to know that energy prices are likely to fall significantly in the coming months.

To be fair, any contract where you're paying a fixed price for something whose price fluctuates (mortgages, energy) is a case of the service provider pricing the product at a fixed rate that they reckon will make a profit. The consumer, if they take it, is then betting against the service provider's projections.

(that may be over simplifying - some consumers just want certainty and are willing to pay for it)

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120093086#Comment_120093086

In early December the forward contracts for gas in Sept-Dec 2023 were still at $150-$170, so at the time, that was correct. They have plummeted to $70-$75 and show no sign of rising. This is pre-Ukraine pricing and even allowing for some forward purchasing at the elevated levels, the average price will be well under $100 and that should see unit pricing of circa 30c ex vat.

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120092993#Comment_120092993

12 months ago gas prices went crazy and some sellers were losing money hand over fist. About 30 electricity suppliers in the UK went bust, here most suppliers generate, but Panda exited the marker as did iberdola as they were losing a fortune

phormium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120100428#Comment_120100428

What's the story with LPG bulk tank stuff?

Now I like my gas heating/hob etc and have been quite happy with it but boiler is old and don't know what I may do if it gives up, much as I'd like to stick with gas it's hard to know so not sure I want to tie myself to anything.

Anyway I have been offered 12mth fixed at 90c incl tax from provider, will need to top up tank within few months, good or bad deal? Or should I stick with the variable in the hope it comes down by the time I need a fill. 😊

Scruff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117497#Comment_120117497

Bulk LPG is always waaaaay more expensive that piped gas and as there are really only 2 providers in the country it smacks of a cartel. But contact Calor about their lpg switching offers. I'm in the middle of switching from flogas myself. Its a bit of a PITA as they have re-certify tank location and swap out one tank for the other but its not as bad as it was years ago as nowadays they use the same company to manage their tanks so its a lift and swap in 1 go.

Calor are giving me 500L free, will match any gas in my flogas tank and price cap freeze for 2 years at 89c. They say is that its an upward freeze only, if prices drop i will get them too.

I signed up in December, so offers may be different now, but still worth an inquiry!

walterking

International gas prices have dropped further and now at mid 2021 levels.

As long as this continues and no reason it shouldn't, (china is overflowing with lpg) there will be serious price reductions by autumn in both gas and electricity.

You could/ should see electricity well under 30c/unit by September

phormium

@Scruff Already switched away from Calor few years back, can't see myself going back to them, it was painful both before and during switch!

@walterking Very interesting! So clearly not in my interest to fix for 12 months at this point in time, only catch will be I'll need to get gas before too long more, won't have enough to make it to autumn but I can just not fill it as I usually do and buy a smaller amount. Thanks for info!

phormium

Did a bit of going back through bills this morning out of curiosity to see what the price has been back along, anyway the fixed offer for 12 months said 90c incl tax which I take to be the vat.

Going back the last time I had a price as low as that was .91c in Dec 2018, April 18 was .83c, from 2018 to 2021 the price was .94c.

Looking at it that way then the .90c offering doesn't seem so bad! I'd have to go back to 2015 to see a price of below .70c, is it likely to get down to that by autumn? (Included vat on all old prices for comparison purposes with offered rate now)

I'll have to double check all those as looking at it the increases since Jan 21 have not been that massive at all! Oct 21 I paid 1.08c and last fill in April 22 was 1.18, will have to check my calculations!

PatthePiper

Got a quote from Flogas for a small barbers shop, commercial unit:

"Unit Rate Day   per kWh   0.3599

Standing Charge -    per day   0.9900  

PSO Levy (MIC <30kVa)   per month   -25.99 

Please note, these rates are quoted for 12 or 24 months.  The new 12/24-month contract will be subject to an 'Early Exit Fee' of €1500/2500 should the contract be terminated during this Fixed Term and all other existing terms and conditions of supply remain in place. This discounted offer is subject to a Direct Debit Mandate remaining in place for the duration of the agreement. Should the Direct Debit be withdrawn, the meter will revert to the standard variable rate.  

If you wish to proceed with your electricity to Flogas, all you need to do is...."

The Exit fee is close to the same amount as the shop's yearly electricity usage. I can understand an administration fee when moving account, but this is just extortionate and doesn't bear any resemblance to the cost involved.

 

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260907#Comment_120260907

That's ok for this moment in time, but gas prices have plummeted as have "next day" electricity prices.

These falls are starting to feed into rates and will continue to feed in. If there is stability in the market you will see electricity rates drop to about 20c-25c a unit.

Fixing at 35c (+vat) would be crazy.

Trampas

When I saw this came out it said to me prices were not going up much anymore. They were trying to strike knowing the fear people had of it going up again.

SMI

There seems to be a lot of decently informed opinions on this thread.

I'm looking to sign up for a domestic account, is the consensus still that this is a long term bad deal?

zell12

Yes.

ablelocks

there's a fixed price of 30c per kwh for electricity only (special rate compared to normal fixed of 38c)

I'm currently paying 48.5c with Energia

standing charge is 275 with Energia but 380 with Flogas (0.75 v 1.04 per day)

going on last bill, Flogas would have been €130 approx cheaper than Engergia (1008 kwh units used)

I think it is worth switching now at the 30c rate - but is there anything i haven't considered?

yankinlk

Cam to baords looking for opinions on flogas and this hit first... nearly pulled the trigger. Im not seeing any drops since this OP opened the thread though... im on a retention rate now from EI - 5% discount. When are these price drops coming?

JoeCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120506897#Comment_120506897

Same here. I was considering moving to Flogas, but I read this now and I am unsure. It is almost summer (if it ever is summer in Ireland) and I don't think that competitors have dropped prices?

yankinlk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120513487#Comment_120513487

I went to bonkers - and found an EI offer (for existing cusotmer) that matches the "end result" ... 8 euro in the difference. 100 cash back (i like cash). The thing that sold it was a variable rate instead of fixed.

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120513487#Comment_120513487

A little research gave me a probable timeline of price drops as announce in May and applying from June and then again 3 months afterwards.

Its guesswork and just from extrapolating the various details.

Gas prices really only dropped at end of Dec and it was Feb before the drop was back to just 2 times the historic cost.

Business wholesale electricity dropped to 33c + pass through charges (about 11c) in January, 26c + 11c in Feb, 21c + 11c in March and likely to be 18c + 11c in April. Before you complain, variable business rates went to 78c + 11c in October, mid 60's in Nov and high 50's in Dec.

Hedging sees gas / electricity bought forward at 3 month, 6 month, 9month, 12 month and further. 3 month hedging is now at the January level, but 6 month is at Oct level.

I haven't a clue how much / what % is hedged at any one time and from what period, but wholesale forward prices started dropping in January and have continued to drop, so they should be feeding into domestic pricing soon and then you should consistent price drops over the year and at a wild guess, domestic unit price will be 25c-30c by late autumn.

But fixing in a falling market is not what I would do

Squiggle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120514418#Comment_120514418

I don't disagree with your analysis but it remains to be seen whether retailers pass on the savings in input costs. Considering today's prices, 25-30c per kwh by Autumn would seem very optimistic.

rob316

There is no prices falling, you can track commodities till the cows come home, until someone starts cutting prices to gain market share and spark a price war there is nothing for the consumer. The cartel look quite cosy at present so won't be risking any price war.

Squiggle

We are being charged the highest prices in Europe according to this piece.

https://www.independent.ie/business/revealed-how-irish-households-are-being-charged-the-highest-prices-in-europe-for-electricity/a643287541.html

Tar.Aldarion

Think I will switch to these, I'd save more than the 50e break fee in the first bill.

Does anyone know if they have a good smart energy breakdown, so you can see what you are using each day?

Squiggle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120496427#Comment_120496427

Where are you getting the 30c fixed price from ?

One year fixed rate is 37.99c from Flogas, electricity only, and the standard rate is 62.27c !

https://www.flogas.ie/residential/price-plans/?fuelType=electricity

joe123

Hey folks - I'm also up for renewal and saw this fixed rate offer. The next best im seeing is the existing offer with 5٪ electric ireland coming in at 40.90 per kwh.

Do people still think prices are due to fall? Flogas is top on bonkers although you can't sign up to it through them.

JoeCat

Let's go for more wind and sustainable energy, we are the winners of rip off, congratulations:

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-how-irish-households-are-being-charged-the-highest-prices-in-europe-for-electricity/a643287541.html

Residential electricity prices including taxes

euro cents per kilowatt hour (c€/kWh)

Ireland

49.9

Germany

49.5

UK

48.5

Italy

48

Denmark

40.5

Austria

36.1

Belgium

35

Netherlands

33.5

Sweden

31.8

Greece

30.2

Latvia

29.5

EU

28.3

Switzerland

27.7

Lithuania

27.5

Estonia

27.3

France

26.7

Spain

24.1

Poland

22.7

Portugal

21.1

Slovakia

19.7

Slovenia

17.4

Romania

16.3

Hungary

9.2

JoeCat

From this article:

"However, only Pinergy has so far cut its electricity unit costs, despite a sharp fall in wholesale energy costs."

"The unit price for electricity is almost double the European average, according to the Household Energy Price Index, which was commissioned by the Austrian energy regulator and the Hungarian energy regulator.

Gas prices are also among the most expensive in Europe."

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/leading-energy-company-to-give-86m-back-to-247000-customers/a2009570024.html

I am going to wait to receive the 35 EUR discount and then move, hopefully prices will go down soon.

ablelocks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120528215#Comment_120528215

it's an affinity offer - details in the energy thread in bargain alerts. i did sign up but offer is now closed though

walterking

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120528215#Comment_120528215

I wouldn't go with that either. they also have the highest standard rates by a proverbial mile - so if you forget to switch at the end of a year you will have a very high rate.

Indicative business rate for a business on the "market rate" for April is 26c incl. passthrough charges. (this was 60c-80c in Sept-Dec) so the trend is down down down down and domestic prices have to start falling soon - in fairness domestic increases last year were about 3-4 months after market rates went up and they never went to the crazy height market rates went to.

Summer is a low usage period for electricity and easy to save on things like tumble dryers and ground water is getting warmer, thus less cost on water heating.

I'm sticking to a prediction of 25c a unit (or less) being available by September.

JoeCat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120531053#Comment_120531053

What companies do you envision they will have these prices?

Squiggle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602685#Comment_120602685

You could be waiting, which suits the green agenda. Petrol and diesel going up again too from June 1st as excise reductions being phased back in over a 5 month period.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41135305.html

JoeCat

Eamon Ryan and his policies are a pure joke, the damage he is making to the economy and Irish population is brutal. Light crude oil futures is at 71 USD, as low as Dec'21, for example. And natural gas is at its lowest since '21. Since the nonsense push for "renewables", now we have the most expensive electricity prices in Europe, we can thank the green agenda for the cost of living crisis:

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/revealed-how-irish-households-are-being-charged-the-highest-prices-in-europe-for-electricity/a643287541.html 

Grumpypants

6 months on from the original post and there is still no sign of prices dropping, if anything all the muttering is that they will go up for winter. If you swapped to Flogas at 30c in Jan you would have enjoyed 6 months of savings. At this point, your current provider that was charging 39c will need to drop to around 21c to get the same savings for the year as if you swapped to flogas in Jan.

_Puma_

So looks like the cartel here hasn't budged despite the bleatings from the CRU and the minister. It's going to take a disruptor shaking up the market and it seems Flogas were the first in. Kudos to those that jumped on it and will take as a lesson learned for the rest of us.

ELM327

I fixed to flogas fixed term 30/14 rates for day night, after my fixed term 28/7 day night ended with energia. These were the best two rates available in both times. Why would I not switch?

Leg End Reject

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120100428#Comment_120100428

The fixed unit price for gas is €9.95, electricity is €29.99 for a standard 24 hr meter, both figures are VAT inclusive. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

poker--addict

Interesting that the OP posted in January assuring everyone prices would drop further and domestic would follow business...it's starting to happen but only 9 months later and will be close to one year before any material decrease occurs. Lesson in there about speed retail prices follow commodities up (overnight), and speed they follow them down (9-12 months).

fuel at pump creeping up again at moment

con747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121001200#Comment_121001200

The OP hasn't posted since they received 1 thread ban back in June. Might have re registered though, who knows.

Tar.Aldarion

So in my opinion as someone who tracks commodity prices, this thread aged very poorly.

con747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121001478#Comment_121001478

A fair few of the OP's predictions went that way. I banged heads a lot with them but mainly on the way they talked down to the peasants.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121001248#Comment_121001248

I am absolutely certain they have, based on a new posters posting style.

con747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121004367#Comment_121004367

I thought so after seeing similar traits in some posts.

Cape Clear

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121004367#Comment_121004367

I would make that the third incarnation at this stage.

Buffman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121001478#Comment_121001478

Ye, if I'd followed the 'advice' in the OP I'd have be paying around 40c per unit for the last few months instead of the 30c I'm paying with Flogas.