January 2023 Boards weather forecast contest _ join us this year

M.T. Cranium

Welcome to the 2023 Boards weather forecast contest. Our scoring format is based on the best 10 of 12 monthly forecasts. This allows you to miss one or two, or blow one or two, without being knocked out of the race. There's a secondary contest based on the total score.

For anyone who has been a lurker or an occasional entrant, why not become a regular (at last count there were 22 forecasters who showed up more or less regularly, and half a dozen occasional visitors). You are also forecasting against Normal and the more formidable Con Sensus.

Here's how it works. Every month we predict these five weather elements, and one extra "bonus" question that is a last minute decision based on the weather pattern (or at least it should be, right? ... let's move on) ...

1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In January the normal IMT is 5.1 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error, so let's say you predict 120% and the outcome is 129%, then you score 12/15. (what is normal PRC in January you may ask? ... the average for the eleven stations is 111 mm, the south and west get a bit more, the east closer to 65-70 mm. But your forecast should be a percentage rather than an actual amount ... if anyone submits an actual amount, that will be converted using 111 mm).
5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in January is about 2 hours a day, so if you think we might average 2.4 hours, predict 120% (etc). Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
6. BONUS for January __ Predict the maximum temperature on Saturday 7th at Mullingar. (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small)
7. A further note on scoring, in cases where more than one third of the entrants would score zero or where the distribution of scores is abnormally low, and it can happen, then we boost scoring using a formula that approximates how scoring usually goes, but you can "hammer" the field by scoring within 2 of a top score in which case anyone else's boost will be reduced by half. Here's an example of how that might work. Let's say it's quite a cold month and you predict an IMT of 1.0 and that is so close that you would score 23/25. So you now have the "hammer" and your score goes to 25, then if the next score might have been only 8/25. instead of going to 24/25, that person will only get 16/25 (half the difference). If the third best forecast was going to have three points, then it would be boosted to 13/25 instead of 23/25. But if nobody has the hammer, the points boosts are more generous. There is an attempt made to pick a scoring pattern that somewhat approximates the differences between forecasts, but it is not overly rigorous so basically when scores are bad, your score will depend mostly on your rank order no matter how big the errors turn out to be. I can say that in the past few years this boost of scoring has been needed about once every two or three months and sometimes for more than one category.

Deadline for entries is usually 0300h on the 1st of each month and you are penalized one point for every four hours late beyond that. However, in January we sometimes have a more lenient start; this year we will only penalize at half that rate for the first 24 hours so any entry on the 1st will not lose much ground.

Please enter in a format like this, as I copy the forecasts and make up a table of entries (if I copy them, it is harder to make mistakes but check what you see).

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Temp 7th Mullingar

M.T. Cranium ________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 10.2 (I may edit this before deadline)

Normal _____________5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

(con sensus will be the median of all forecasts other than Normal)

Good luck then if you decide to join in. The threads during the month are interesting as we track the evolution of the contest stats from week to week.

esposito

esposito________ 5.7_ 15.4_ -3.5_ 100 _ 105___ 11.4

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 6.2 _ 15.6 _ -5.1 _ 088 _ 095 ___ 12.9

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 6.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 091 ___ 11.2

pauldry

Pauldry ________ 7.5_ 14.8 _ -5.7 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 12.1

dasa29

Dasa29________ 5.0_ 14.5_ -5.5_ 110 _ 110___ 11.0

Rebelbrowser

Rebelbrowser ________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.4 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 8.9

Bsal

Bsal _____________5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 102 ____ 11.0

WolfeEire

WolfEire ___________ 5.2 _ 13.4_ -6.3 _ 105 _ 95_ 7c

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -12.4 _ 088 _ 124 ___ 12.4

my 4cast

Happy New Year all 4casters

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.8 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 11.8

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ______5.6 _ 15.2_ -3.5 _ 125 _ 90 ____ 9.8

Happy new year everyone!

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120043469#Comment_120043469

Sorry, change my precip to 110 please. Can't edit post.

John mac

john mac _____________5.3 _ 15.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 7.4

Danno

Danno _____________ 4.7 _ 13.8 _ -10.7 _ 110 _ 140 ____ 6.7

appledrop

Appledrop_____5.8___15.2___-4.8___115__110_11.8

Happy New Year everyone!

Here's to 2023, thanks M.T for keeping this going every year.

waterways

Happy New Year appledrop and all and yes thanks to MT!

waterways _____________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 173 _ 92 ____ 7.7

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 4.5 ___ 14.8 ___ -6.0 ___ 80 ___ 99 ___ 9.8

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ______ 5.2 ____ 14.2 ___ -6.2 ____ 092 ____ 110 ___ 5.9

mr.stonewall

Mr.stonewall____4.9___14.9_____-5.7___147___73____8.9

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____________4.8 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 _ 90 _ 105 ____ 6.5

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _________6.0 _ 15.8 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 95 ____ 10.0

mrskinner

Skinner_____4.9____15.9_____-5.1_____145_____80____12.1

dacogawa

Dacogawa_____5.5___15.5___-7.0___125___110____10.5

adam240610

adam240610 ___ 4.7___ 14.8 ___ -6.3 ___ 80 ___ 95 ___ 10

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for January 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Mull 7th

Pauldry ______________ 7.5 _ 14.8 _ -5.7 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 12.1

Gonzo _______________ 6.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 091 ___ 11.2

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.8 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 11.8

sryanbruen ___________ 6.2 _ 15.6 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.9

Tae laidir _____________6.0 _ 15.8 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Appledrop ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 11.8

Bsal ________________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 102 ___ 11.0

esposito _____________ 5.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 11.4

Sunflower3 ___________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -3.5 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 9.8

Dacogawa ____________5.5 _ 15.5 _ -7.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___ 10.5

M.T. Cranium _________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 10.2

john mac ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 7.4

____ Con Sensus ______5.3 _ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 10.1

DOCARCH ____________5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 092 _ 110 ____ 5.9

WolfEire _____________ 5.2 _ 13.4 _ -6.3 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 7.0

____ NormaL _________5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 11.0

MrSkinner ___________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 12.1

Mr.stonewall __________4.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.7 _ 147 _ 073 ____ 8.9

Rebelbrowser _________4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.4 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 8.9

Jpmarn ______________4.8 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 6.5

waterways ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 173 _ 092 ____ 7.7

Danno ______________ 4.7 _ 13.8 _-10.7 _ 110 _ 140 ____ 6.7

adam240610 _________ 4.7 _ 14.8 _ -6.3 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Kindred Spirit _________4.5 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 080 _ 099 ____ 9.8

Joe Public ____________4.4 _ 14.4 _-12.4 _ 088 _ 124 ___ 12.4

_____________________________

later entries will be added to table

24 forecasts so far, Con Sensus is median (mean of 12th and 13th ranked)

Tae laidir

Belmullet -1.8 for openers.

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad _____6.3 _14.9_ -5.1 _111_ 91_10

200motels

Completely forgot.

200 motels 6.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 086 _ 092 ___ 11.9

Tae laidir

Athenry -3.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Late entries noted, cannot edit the table but will score them.

appledrop

Max 13.7 at Moore Pk yesterday.

Tae laidir

Moore Park 13.7 yesterday

pauldry

Looks like 8c is as high as mullingar got

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the 10C air mass many of us counted on sped up and left Mullingar at 10 p.m. Friday, in fact some guidance a few days ago showed a colder outcome but eventually the cooling became modest enough to permit a slight rebound during the mid-day hours. I am seeing 8.0 for the max, will check that tomorrow. Here's the scoring outcome for 8.0 C, which is now confirmed in the met.ie yesterday's weather section. ...

Scoring will run from 1 to 10 points because no forecasts seemed far enough off to merit 0/10. It's almost a case of running down from warmest to coldest forecasts except for a few that are among the higher scoring groups and indented slightly at both ends of the entry.

sryanbruen ___________ 12.9 __ 1 pts

Joe Public ____________ 12.4 __ 1 pts

Pauldry ______________ 12.1 __ 2 pts

MrSkinner ____________ 12.1 __ 2 pts

200motels ____________ 11.9 __ 3 pts

Artane2002 ___________ 11.8 __ 3 pts

Appledrop ____________ 11.8 __ 3 pts

esposito ______________11.4 __ 4 pts

Gonzo _______________ 11.2 __ 4 pts

Bsal _________________11.0 __ 4 pts

Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 __ 4 pts

Dacogawa ____________10.5 __ 5 pts

M.T. Cranium _________ 10.2 __ 5 pts

___ DOCARCH ____ 5.9 _______ 6 pts

____ Con Sensus ______ 10.1 __ 6 pts

Tae laidir ____________ 10.0 __ 6 pts

adam240610 _________ 10.0 __ 6 pts

Cornerstonelad _______ 10.0 __ 6 pts

Sunflower3 ___________ 9.8 __ 7 pts

Kindred Spirit _________ 9.8 __ 7 pts

Jpmarn ______________ 6.5 __ 8 pts

___ Danno _______ 6.7 ______ 8 pts

___ WolfEire ______ 7.0 ______ 9 pts

Mr.stonewall __________ 8.9 __ 9 pts

Rebelbrowser _________ 8.9 __ 9 pts

___ john mac _____ 7.4 ______10 pts

waterways _______ 7.7 ______ 10 pts

___ NormaL ______ 7.8 ______10 pts

===========================

NormaL is the closest to any outcome with waterways, followed by John mac, closest forecasts.

(8.0 C confirmed as result)

appledrop

3 points, oh dear there goes my chance of winning for 2023🤣.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 7.3, 2.0 above normal.

MAX 13.7, MIN -3.6

PRC 112% of normal

SUN 90% of normal

Mullingar max 7th was 8.0 and bonus is scored above.

Here's something new, a running score for Con Sensus just to give you some idea, it would be 41 if the month ended like that (before any minimum progression).

Should note also that two late entries that I could not edit in would change Con Sensus slightly to the following

Con Sensus _______ 5.4 _ 14.9 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 _ 10.1

rameire

Rameire _____________6.5 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 118 _ 85 ____ 10.1

Getting in late, has been a few years since last entering. I know I have the benefit of seeing the last 10 days of weather and will be penalised accordingly. ( possibly no points, but accept this )

appledrop

New Max 13.8 on 10th at Phoneix Park.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120092952#Comment_120092952

Welcome back, by the rules you cannot enter after the late penalty countdown reaches zero which normally happens on the 6th but with relaxed new year penalties would be closer to 10th this month. I will score your forecast for your own interest but it will appear in the scoring tables as the minimum score of 10 (which might be helpful in the total score but obviously won't count in the best 10/12). You'll still have eleven months out of which to harvest ten decent scores.

I did not assign late penalties yet for the two who entered after the table of entries, but having reviewed what was said about relaxed late penalties in the original post and calculating from there, will go with 7 for Cornerstonelad (time stamp is 2105h 2nd), and 14 for 200motels (0941h 3rd). It is usually a penalty of 9 points to 1500h 2nd (one every four hours) and one point per hour thereafter. I said half measure for the first part and really didn't specify anything different after 1500h 2nd but will say we go with 5 points to avoid the fraction, to 1700h rather than 1500h 2nd and staying with a half measure after that, if we were at 5 penalty points by 1700h 2nd and then a point for every 2h (which is how I calculated cornerstonelad and 200motels) it would be 190h (95 x 2) after 1700h 2nd to the extinction point making that (in theory) 1500h 10th. Of course the extinction point only applies to a perfect forecast too, as 70 is a pretty good score that extinction point would have come after 130h which is 5d 10h so 8th 0300h.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT is on 7.2 with the second week average also 7.2 which was 1.9 above normal.

MAX is 13.8

MIN is -3.6

PRC up to 169% now with the second week quite wet at 225% of normal. However if the trends are drier, the amount so far barely guarantees 80% and an average of 50% from now to end would yield an outcome of just around 110%.

SUN has edged up to 95% with the second week almost right on average (599/600).

Bonus question already scored. (Mullingar 8.0 on 7th, any reference earlier to 7.8 was my confusion of outcome and normal value which was closest)

If the month ended with the current values, Con Sensus would score only 32 points before any minimum progression.

If I had the chance to re-do the forecast I think it will end around 5.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 so that would give Con a better score of 74. If my estimates were correct, the highest score would be only a touch higher than that. Pretty wide range of possible outcomes, depends on how mild it gets after this coming four day cold spell. If it doesn't get particularly mild then IMT could fall even lower because it will likely be close to 5.5 by Thursday of this week.

M.T. Cranium

Mountdillon reading -7 C at 0700h and it has been -6 at several other locations overnight.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120118512#Comment_120118512

Minus 6.7c at 3.30am and 7.30am was the minimum at Mount Dillon according to Met. I see one or two people have that as their min low.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119110#Comment_120119110

-7.0C on their Twitter.

WolfeEire

Rounding off to the nearest number I assume as the data from the station says it peaked at -6.7c. Is the data link I posted from met.ie different to what met has access to?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119832#Comment_120119832

That's the automated sensor, it doesn't show the maximum or minimum within an hour. It shows the temp value only bang on the hour chosen.

No it's not rounded.

pauldry

Yes minus 7c is the confirmed number. That's prob it for low. Tonight and tomorrow higher mins.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT fell to 5.8 to 18th and assuming a mean of 2.0 today would now be at 5.6 C. The falling IMT will steady with the milder weekend and Monday temperatures and should still be in the mid-5 range by mid-week but then another rather cool spell is indicated with means possibly a bit lower than 3 C, even at 3 C an IMT of 5.5 by 24th would slide down to around 5.0 for a slightly below normal outcome. This did not seem likely a week or two back. There won't be much additional rainfall and the month could end up a lot drier than it was looking. At the moment the guaranteed outcome (today's total vs end of month averages) is 85% of normal. Valentia has just about its normal amount and the other ten locations used for PRC have between 80 and 90 per cent. That translates to 125% of normal precip 1st to 19th but this slides down about 3% a day if no further rain falls. With just 10-20 mm indicated over the interval, we might actually fail to reach normal at the end of the month.

Sunshine will probably increase however. Although there will be a fair amount of cloud with the milder spell, it may manage to produce some bright spells and then the later synoptics look better for sunshine, so I would think the current near-normal situation (I estimate we have improved on the 95% to 14th and would now be near 105%) will perhaps end up as high as 125%.

MAX and MIN are probably set but never say never. MAX is only 13.8 and could drift a bit higher around Monday (will speculate 14.2), so ...

Just FYI, here are scores based on 5.0 _ 14.2 _ -7.0 _ 095 _ 120 and adding in bonus scores already determined ...

"Just sayin" Scores for your interest Jan 2023 (subject to adjustments of perhaps significant amounts) ...

also not showing any required minimum progression adjustments yet (there may be none) ...

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS ___ TOTALS

Pauldry ______________ 00 _ 14 _ 07 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 02 ______ 42

Gonzo _______________ 08 _ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 04 ___ 04 ______ 37

Rameire _ (min score) __ 10 _ 00 _ 00 _ 07 _ 03 ___ (06) _26 -> 10

200 motels __ (-14) ____11 _ 11 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 03 _44-14= 30

Artane2002 ___________12 _ 07 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 ______ 42

Cornerstonelad _ (-7) ___12 _ 13 _ 01 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 06 _ 46-7=39

sryanbruen ___________ 13 _ 06 _ 01 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 01 ______ 36

Tae laidir _____________ 15 _ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 06 ______ 32

Appledrop ____________ 17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 03 ______ 46

Bsal _________________17 _ 19 _ 10 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 ______ 62

esposito _____________ 18 _ 08 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 ______ 50

Sunflower3 ___________19 _ 10 _ 00 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 07 ______ 45

Dacogawa ____________20 _ 07 _ 20 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 65

M.T. Cranium _________ 20 _ 10 _ 08 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 65

Con Sensus __ (adj) ___ 21 _ 13 _ 08 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 06 ______ 66

john mac ____________ 22 _ 06 _ 05 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 60

DOCARCH ____________23 _ 20 _ 12 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 83

WolfEire _____________ 23 _ 12 _ 13 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 09 ______ 74

____ NormaL _________24 _ 07 _ 15 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 10 ______ 75

Dasa29 _____________ 25 _ 17 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 69

MrSkinner ___________ 24 _ 03 _ 01 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 02 ______ 32

Mr.stonewall __________24 _ 13 _ 07 _ 00 _ 01 ___ 09 ______ 54

Rebelbrowser _________24 _ 20 _ 16 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 09 ______ 87

Jpmarn ______________23 _ 04 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 70

waterways ___________ 23 _ 19 _ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 10 ______ 59

Danno ______________ 22 _ 16 _ 00 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 08 ______ 62

adam240610 _________22 _ 14 _ 13 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 06 ______ 70

Kindred Spirit _________20 _ 14 _ 10 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 67

Joe Public ____________19 _ 18 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 01 ______ 60

==================================

* Min progression may be provided for MIN, however, Dacogawa has the "hammer" so those boosts are only going to be half the usual amounts, so figure on perhaps seeing 2-3 extra points there unless your MIN forecast was among the worst three (zero anyway) or next worst (one point anyway).

Note: Rameire actually ends up with an actual score not much higher than the min score, and would be down to the min score even with the same late penalty as 200motels. Given that no advantage seemed to be gained from the late entry (if my projections are close) then I will take the raw scores forward for the "category" scoring but the monthly score will be 10.

Once again, these scores are just FYI and if my idea of a cool, dry last week is wrong, then these scores will all be academic at that point and a full-scale revision could be required.

(actual forecasts adding in late entries)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Mull 7th

Pauldry ______________ 7.5 _ 14.8 _ -5.7 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 12.1

Gonzo _______________ 6.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 091 ___ 11.2

Rameire _ (min score) __ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 118 _ 85 ____ 10.1

200 motels __ (-14) ____6.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 086 _ 092 ___ 11.9

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.8 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 11.8

Cornerstonelad _ (-7) __ 6.3 _ 14.9 _ -5.1 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 10.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.2 _ 15.6 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.9

Tae laidir _____________6.0 _ 15.8 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Appledrop ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 11.8

Bsal ________________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 102 ___ 11.0

esposito _____________ 5.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 11.4

Sunflower3 ___________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -3.5 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 9.8

Dacogawa ____________5.5 _ 15.5 _ -7.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___ 10.5

M.T. Cranium _________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 10.2

Con Sensus _ (adj) ____ 5.4 _ 14.9 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 10.1

john mac ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 7.4

DOCARCH ____________5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 092 _ 110 ____ 5.9

WolfEire _____________ 5.2 _ 13.4 _ -6.3 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 7.0

____ NormaL _________5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 11.0

MrSkinner ___________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 12.1

Mr.stonewall __________4.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.7 _ 147 _ 073 ____ 8.9

Rebelbrowser _________4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.4 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 8.9

Jpmarn ______________4.8 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 6.5

waterways ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 173 _ 092 ____ 7.7

Danno ______________ 4.7 _ 13.8 _-10.7 _ 110 _ 140 ____ 6.7

adam240610 _________ 4.7 _ 14.8 _ -6.3 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Kindred Spirit _________4.5 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 080 _ 099 ____ 9.8

Joe Public ____________4.4 _ 14.4 _-12.4 _ 088 _ 124 ___ 12.4

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 5.4 to 20th, seems likely to level off or even gain slightly to around mid-week then could lose a bit more. My earlier estimate of 5.0 looks a tad low today, but will hold off on an update to the above "just sayin" scores until after tomorrow's third week update. I may also rethink the slight rise in MAX to 14.2 which could turn out to be slightly conservative also. Other elements used in the estimated scoring seem on track despite the milder look, still appears dry and a bit sunnier than average overall.

Difference is mainly to the last 2-3 days so that could shift back to earlier trends, will give it 48h before going with a new estimate. For now if you're above me in table, you stand to gain 5 plus whatever your MAX could gain, and if below to 5.0 little change, if below 5.0 then you could lose 5 from my estimate (plus or minus the change to MAX). Most forecasts would gain a bit from a boost to MAX, as long as it didn't soar too high from 14.2. Our consensus was 14.9.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.5, the third week average was 2.2, which was 3.2 below normal.

MAX 13.8 and MIN -7.0

PRC now 127% with the third week average only 43% of normal. The guaranteed amount already recorded is 87% of normal (Valentia about 102% all the others in a range of 77 to 92 per cent).

SUN ... data problems of some kind have led to reports for only two locations out of six. Will check back but those two were both quite high at around 180%, assuming that to be widespread, would leave SUN near 123% of normal.

BONUS already scored (8.0 Mullingar 7th).

Looking at current model output, will revise the "just sayin" scoring tomorrow if the current trends are maintained, only IMT likely to be altered, to something like 5.5 (unless MAX exceeds 14.2).

M.T. Cranium

Updated "just sayin" preliminary scoring for January, have gone to 5.6 as new IMT estimate, all other elements remain the same, so still looking for a slight boost to MAX either today or Saturday seem most conducive to that. The small boosts of reduced minimum progression for MIN (reduced by the hammer of Dacogawa) are also incorporated.

The minimum progression scores would be 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 for 27 forecasters (Con and Normal excluded but awarded boosts as they fall in with the forecasters). Ties changed that to 20 20 19 18 18 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 ... So your actual minimum progression score will be half of the improvement you would have seen otherwise from raw score to minimum progression. A lot of the improvements were 3-4 points. Those seeing no improvement do not have the asterisk symbol (one score at 20, and one at zero).

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS ___ TOTALS

Pauldry ______________ 06 _ 14 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 02 ______ 51

Gonzo _______________ 14 _ 08 _ 01*_ 14 _ 04 ___ 04 ______ 45

Rameire _ (min score) __ 16 _ 00 _ 02*_ 07 _ 03 ___ (06) _34 -> 10

200 motels __ (-14) ____17 _ 11 _ 07*_ 12 _ 04 ___ 03 _54-14= 40

Artane2002 ___________18 _ 07 _ 03*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 ______ 51

Cornerstonelad _ (-7) ___18 _ 13 _ 05*_ 10 _ 04 ___ 06 _ 56-7=49

sryanbruen ___________ 19 _ 06 _ 05*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 01 ______ 46

Tae laidir _____________ 21 _ 04 _ 01*_ 02 _ 05 ___ 06 ______ 39

Appledrop ____________ 23 _ 10 _ 03*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 03 ______ 55

Bsal _________________23 _ 19 _ 13*_ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 ______ 71

esposito _____________ 24 _ 08 _ 02*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 ______ 58

Sunflower3 ___________25 _ 10 _ 02*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 07 ______ 53

Dacogawa ____________24 _ 07 _ 20 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 05 ______ 69

M.T. Cranium _________ 24 _ 10 _ 11*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 72

Con Sensus __ (adj) ___ 23 _ 13 _ 11*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 06 ______ 71

john mac ____________ 22 _ 06 _ 09*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 64

DOCARCH ____________21 _ 20 _ 14*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 83

WolfEire _____________ 21 _ 12 _ 16*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 09 ______ 75

____ NormaL _________20 _ 07 _ 17*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 10 ______ 73

Dasa29 _____________ 19 _ 17 _ 09*_ 10 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 67

MrSkinner ___________ 18 _ 03 _ 05*_ 00 _ 02 ___ 02 ______ 30

Mr.stonewall __________18 _ 13 _ 10*_ 00 _ 01 ___ 09 ______ 51

Rebelbrowser _________18 _ 20 _ 18*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 09 ______ 83

Jpmarn ______________17 _ 04 _ 17*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 66

waterways ___________ 17 _ 19 _ 07*_ 00 _ 04 ___ 10 ______ 57

Danno ______________ 16 _ 16 _ 02*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 08 ______ 58

adam240610 _________ 16 _ 14 _ 16*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 06 ______ 67

Kindred Spirit _________14 _ 14 _ 13*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 07 ______ 64

Joe Public ____________13 _ 18 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 01 ______ 54

==================================

* Min progression has been provided for MIN, however, Dacogawa has the "hammer" so those boosts are only going to be half the usual amounts, see the discussion above the table for details.

Note: Rameire actually ends up with an actual score around 34, and would be down to 18 even with the same late penalty as 200motels. Given that no advantage seemed to be gained from the late entry (if my projections are close) then I will take the raw scores forward for the "category" scoring but the monthly score will be 10.

(actual forecasts adding in late entries)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Mull 7th

Pauldry ______________ 7.5 _ 14.8 _ -5.7 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 12.1

Gonzo _______________ 6.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 091 ___ 11.2

Rameire _ (min score) __ 6.5 _ 16.5 _ -4.0 _ 118 _ 85 ____ 10.1

200 motels __ (-14) ____6.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 086 _ 092 ___ 11.9

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.8 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 11.8

Cornerstonelad _ (-7) __ 6.3 _ 14.9 _ -5.1 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 10.0

sryanbruen ___________ 6.2 _ 15.6 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.9

Tae laidir _____________6.0 _ 15.8 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Appledrop ____________5.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 11.8

Bsal ________________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 102 ___ 11.0

esposito _____________ 5.7 _ 15.4 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 11.4

Sunflower3 ___________5.6 _ 15.2 _ -3.5 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 9.8

Dacogawa ____________5.5 _ 15.5 _ -7.0 _ 125 _ 110 ___ 10.5

M.T. Cranium _________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 10.2

Con Sensus _ (adj) ____ 5.4 _ 14.9 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 10.1

john mac ____________ 5.3 _ 15.6 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 7.4

DOCARCH ____________5.2 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 092 _ 110 ____ 5.9

WolfEire _____________ 5.2 _ 13.4 _ -6.3 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 7.0

____ NormaL _________5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 11.0

MrSkinner ___________ 4.9 _ 15.9 _ -5.1 _ 145 _ 080 ___ 12.1

Mr.stonewall __________4.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.7 _ 147 _ 073 ____ 8.9

Rebelbrowser _________4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.4 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 8.9

Jpmarn ______________4.8 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 6.5

waterways ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 173 _ 092 ____ 7.7

Danno ______________ 4.7 _ 13.8 _-10.7 _ 110 _ 140 ____ 6.7

adam240610 _________ 4.7 _ 14.8 _ -6.3 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 10.0

Kindred Spirit _________4.5 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 080 _ 099 ____ 9.8

Joe Public ____________4.4 _ 14.4 _-12.4 _ 088 _ 124 ___ 12.4

________________________________

Scores will be adjusted as required.