Is Elon Musk hurting Tesla? (Mod Note Post #1)

MojoMaker

That's the Chinese replication model though.

What a Chinese buyer wants in a vehicle and what a European buyer wants may be very different.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123322210#Comment_123322210

that may well be true, if the narrative remains that Tesla is a manufacturer of 2 cars.

I get the impression that musk is bored of being a manufacturer of cars, and is chasing the moonshot projects.

All the vehicle projects, CT, Semi, roadster etc, are all DOA.

The taxi thing is YEARS away from commercial reality,

people won’t pay for FSD now that BYD and Co are including it for free

The Optimus project is as bizarre as it is not going to have a domestic business model - perhaps they will be used in factories etc, but with signifiant costs to manage and maintain them.

I’ve no idea what Tesla uses Ai for, but presumably it’s related to FSD. It’s many years from a safe release outside the US, as we saw in China last month - pulling it after just a few weeks.

I’m bearish on Tesla not because of Musk, but because I struggle to see where the revenue (and I mean the MASSIVE revenues needed to justify the SP), will come from outside of manufacturing 2 cars.

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123321282#Comment_123321282

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home", attributed to Ken Olsen, DEC, 1977 (just before the whole thing exploded

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”, Thomas Watson, IBM (admittedly 1943)

Well, Tesla have bought parts for more than 10,000 obtimus. They plan to produce 5000 this year and up to 50,000 next year.

It's April now. End of year is < 8 months away. So the timeframe for seeing actual results is quite short. You can't really spoof much on that.

They must have an idea of a market for these. Why would you produce them if you haven't a hope of selling them? It may not be low-end domestic for a long while.

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123322599#Comment_123322599

Didn't they also claim there was a market for 250k Cybertrucks per year, they sold under 40k last year.

Until they actually produce a commercially available robot and start selling it they can make up any number they like.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123322599#Comment_123322599

Just to point out the obvious, all of Teslas big promises over the last few years have amounted to pipe dreams that never come to fruition. They continuously just push out those promises. And realistically what we've gotten over the last few years is the cybertruck

magicbastarder

They must have an idea of a market for these.

does the market want them? or does elrond want the market to want them?

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123322930#Comment_123322930

FSD is possibly the biggest flop of the last decade in terms of column inches and R&D spend, versus potential future revenue stream.

the initial $12k cost 5-7 years ago might eventually end up having to be a $1k spec option, and it’s still US-only for years to come (as the China experiment failed in a matter of weeks in March).

Originally just 6% of US cars optioned FSD, and zero in other markets.

TLDR: By the time it’s ready, the market might well have passed it by.

LiDAR eh …

prosaic

Cybercab is expected to be running in Austin in June - 2 months from now.

Let's see what happens come June and year-end, for cybertaxi, fsd and Optimus. The projected timelines are quite short so it will be clear to one and all.

If you are right, shares fall. If projections are close to right, shares rise.

Maybe this hate-athon will be dead by year-end too.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123323442#Comment_123323442

you’re linking these projects to the Tesla share price - the share price has now surpassed the car business case, the side projects business case (which you’ve listed), and into the “Ai something something something” business case - and even beyond that into a show of support from the Muskateers. The retail buying of the stock yesterday was bonkers

In the US, you’d be amazed how many Tesla drivers are also longterm stockholders. It’s hard to argue with someone who has made you market beating returns

McHardcore

https://youtu.be/_SKaBwmHq9Y?si=BtRrVFrXS1qIW9Ak

Forbes ran another video.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123323442#Comment_123323442

I'd actually say the dislike of Musk and it's hit to Tesla has been progressive for well over a year. Just he accelerated it when he tried the act of unelected president.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123323442#Comment_123323442

the robotaxi trail in Austin is just smoke and mirrors to deflect from the Q1 numbers.

God there are so many reasons to be sceptical -

Tesla FSD versus waymo has been described this week as like a 12 year old driver, versus a competent adult driver (Ross Gerber)

Another Tesla bull Gary black said the Austin Q3 trial date will be “a non-event”.

The ex Waymo CEO literally laughed it off last week on Bloomberg, when he was interviewed about it after Tesla tweeted it - he highlighted 2 simple things:

1. The car is barely a rolling 2 seater prototype
2. The trial car has to prioritise safety over all else - which means huge amounts of redundancy in ALL areas, sensors, camera cleaning ability, lidar & cameras etc etc etc etc

basic stuff, that’s a long way away.

his expert view was that Tesla couldn’t possible take the prototype ‘vehicle’ shown to something that is ready for trial without it looking like the Back to the future delorean, so they’re still so so far away from trialing anything.

Just look at the complexity and number of sensors on the waymo currently operating with customer journeys in California:

Meanwhile, over at Tesla:

wassie

Yep….not hurting Tesla at all…..

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/residents-horrified-as-elon-musk-nazi-billboard-appears-322345/

Or this…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/activists-place-elon-musk-salute-cutouts-tesla-chargers-video-shows

MojoMaker

In fairness, that kind of response is a bit like the folks that tore down the Lidl in Tallaght during Storm Emma.

prosaic

Musk's idea, and it may be proven wrong in the end, is that humans use 2D vision with all the inference that goes with that. We don't even use paralax much at distances over a few meters. His bet is that eventually vision will be all that's required and all the extra sensors are just adding expense and complexity.
Tesla have some way to go to demonstrate better than human level safety. I read that they have of the order of 500 miles without intervention but this needs to get to something of order of 500,000 miles. We'll see what happens in Austin and any statement of where they have gotten to with non-intervention.
I kind of believe that the vision based thing will be shown to be adequate with enough training. There is the possibility that this is wrong though. "Success is one of the possible outcomes".

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325417#Comment_123325417

Adding complexity is what’s required though.

Tesla have never addressed how they will solve the in-journey camera-cleaning problem.

the “what ifs” are just too serious when it comes to camera lenses, outside of simply having the FSD software 100.00% accurate - rain, dust, dirt, sun glare, and so on and on and on - all these basic things that happen in most journeys need to be layered on top of everything that the software can currently do.

In a rain storm for example, a camera-only system is effectively blinded, right when you need it most - and Tesla have no system redundancy to address that.

This is why waymo and the other serious players use lidar alongside cameras - it provides redundancy and accuracy

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325417#Comment_123325417

You don't start with minimal safety so you absolutely have to pursue the expense. The fact that this very idea should have been proven by all the Teslas on the road is sign enough that with current technology, those additional sensors are needed.

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123322218#Comment_123322218

Model Y was the best selling car last .month in China so I think they're doing ok in that market

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325660#Comment_123325660

how confident are you in the ability of the Y to be the best selling car in China for the next 12-24 months?

maidhc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325680#Comment_123325680

Haha.

PopePalpatine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123324696#Comment_123324696

A billboard and some cardboard, those libs will drop a hydrogen bomb on Austin next!

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325534#Comment_123325534

People ar saying that FSD 13 is a large improvement, handling heavy rain quite well.

Cameras should be equal to eyes in theory so if a person can drive in a particular situation, then cameras should also. I certainly have to slow to a crawl in thunderstorm rain (once or twice a year).

If you can demonstrate an acceptable level of safety, it doesn't matter what technology is used, you just pass the test. You probably won't achieve zero risk but you might be 10 times better than humans. If that can be acheived with just cameras, is it not good enough? Also, one assumes the system should recognise when it becomes impaired and apply safety procedures.

KCross

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326652#Comment_123326652

Cameras should be equal to eyes in theory so if a person can drive in a particular situation, then cameras should also.

Thats the fatal flaw.

How can a static camera match, in all scenarios, your 3d vision and eyelids and your ability to move your head/eyes. It cant is the answer.

FSD will no doubt beat humans in alot of situations as it wont get tired or distracted but its the edge cases is where you have a problem.

If you can demonstrate an acceptable level of safety, it doesn't matter what technology is used

Agreed on that. "demonstrate" is where its falling short…. so far.

Lots of promising though…

JohnySwan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326616#Comment_123326616

I guess you missed the burning of Teslas then.

PopePalpatine

The billboard just says, "Buying a Tesla? The far-right salutes you." I guess I did miss the white font that says "Burn a Tesla? We salute you."

prosaic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326677#Comment_123326677

I mentioned earlier that humans cannot really use 3D (parallax) past a few meters distance. After that, it's solely brain analysis of 2D video.

I don't really squint while driving and avoid head-movement, while looking in the general forward direction, as that impairs the brains ability to analyse. Of course I do turn to look out the side when necessary because I only have two eyes that point forwards.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326652#Comment_123326652

”handling rain quite well” is exactly the problem. It needs to be perfect, every time - AND have full redundancy.

One thing I forgot earlier - our eyes have innate stabilisation that is near impossible to do on fixed cameras attached to a moving object doing perhaps 120kmph

KCross

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326717#Comment_123326717

you’re not addressing the shortcomings of FSD that I pointed out in that post.

A couple of cameras isn’t a drop in substitute for what a human eye/eyelids and movement can do. Not to mind the brain sitting behind those eyes!

It’s like saying a horse is as good as a car because they both get you from a-b

Escapees

Came across the Tesla below today and thought of this thread - the colour might be reason enough for someone to burn a Tesla!! :)

Stallingrad

I saw EM being interviewed close to tears wondering how people could want to wreck someone's car.

What these people never understand it is not the car, no-one cares about the car. It's what the car represents as a product of the individual that is running DOGE and wrecking livelihoods with an almost childish enthusiasm.

So much damage has been done that I doubt stepping aside as CEO of Tesla will help either. As long as he is gutting everything through DOGE it will be a company that is loathed by many. I wouldn't touch one.

DT was bigly smart to get EM to do all his dirty work and take the heat.