Ireland - 2022 Year in Review

I had a look at the 11 games Ireland played in 2022 to see if there were any interesting stats or observations jumping out.

Firstly, on a team level:

·        We outscored the 11 opponents by 127 points, but largely helped by blowout wins early in the year v Wales, Italy, England & Scotland.

·        Our scrum success rate over the course of the year was 89% (opponents 84%), lineout success rate 91% (opponents 85%) and our ruck success rate was 96% (opponents 95%).

·        Overall we shaded both possession and territory, with c. 52% possession over the 11 games, and 56% territory. There were some outliers in there though skewing the numbers – we had 60% possession versus both England & Wales. Over the NZ series we averaged 49% and had the same number over the November series.

·        While we carried for 916m more than our opponents, on a metres per carry basis we were only marginally better (3.4m versus 3.3m), which really illustrates the war of the trenches attritional nature of modern rugby.

·        We kicked the ball slightly more than our opponents (272 v 258), had more clean breaks (57 v 44) and more offloads (78 v 68).

·        Our tackle success rate was 88%, directly in line with our opponents (also 88%). We averaged 90% for the 6N, 89% for the NZ Series and 85% for the November series (with an appalling 79% v Fiji). 

Player Stats:

·        We used 45 players over the course of the season, of which 34 players played more than 80 mins of rugby. 6 players played less than 40 mins of rugby, with 2 (Ross Byrne & Jack Carty) receiving less than 10 mins.

·        6 players (Beirne, Doris, Gibson Park, Furlong, Sheehan and Conan) were involved in all 11 games, with Beirne, Doris and Furlong starting all 11. Another 4 players were involved in 10 games.

·        Tadhg Beirne & Caelan Doris were flogged this year – Beirne played 802 of a possible 880 minutes (91%), Doris 797 of 880 (90%), and JVDF also played 88% of all possible minutes. 8 players played in excess of 75% of all possible minutes.

·        Back three players unsurprisingly led the metres carried stats (Hugo Keenan 512m, James Lowe 471m and Mack Hansen 439m), with Caelan Doris next at 317m. On an average carry basis, excluding players who played <80 minutes, James Lowe is the leader at 7.5m per carry, ahead of Jimmy O’Brien (6.8m per carry), Mack Hansen (6.1) and Hugo Keenan (5.7). Worst carrying stats of players with at least 30 carries is Tadhg Furlong (1m per carry), Kieran Treadwell (1.7m) and James Ryan (1.9m).

·        Caelan Doris led the way in terms of turnovers won (12) ahead of Beirne (10) and O’Mahony and Porter next, both on 6. 

Player Stats 2 (last of initial post)

·        JVDF and Bundee were joint top try scorers with 4 tries.

·        Garry Ringrose beat the most defenders (20), ahead of Doris (15), Sheehan (14) and Hansen & Lowe (both 13). Mack Hansen had most clean breaks (8) ahead of James Lowe (7), with next a glut of players on 4. Mack also had the most offloads (13), more than twice as many as Jonathan Sexton in second (6).

·        James Ryan led in stolen lineouts (5), ahead of Beirne (3) and a glut of players on 1 each.

·        Andrew Porter had the poorest discipline, conceded 12 penalties, with James Ryan and Tadhg Beirne next on 10 each.

·        Joey Carbery led the kicking stats with 79%, ahead of Sexton on 74%. Obviously Ross Byrne & Crowley were both 100%, but with small sample sizes.

·        Finally, Josh van der Flier led Caelan Doris in total tackles, with 169 ahead of Doris’ 147. Big gap to Tadhg Beirne in third with 108.

·        James Ryan was the best tackler in terms of tackle % of players who played at least 80 mins of rugby, with 97% success rate across 93 tackles, just ahead of Caelan Doris (96% on 147 tackles) and Andrew Porter (96% on 73 tackles). Worst tacklers stats for players who played at least 80 mins were Robert Baloucoune (50% on 10 tackles) and Andrew Conway (67% on 12 tackles).

Conclusions

We were very fortunate with injuries, and we relied heavily on our core players who racked up a lot of minutes this year.

We performed (obviously) very well, and had a multitude of players who had exceptionally strong years.

I think there is a strong argument to be made that despite JVDF's World Player of the Year award that Caelan Doris was our best player in 2022. He started every game, second most minutes overall, most metres carried outside of back three players (4th highest overall), most turnovers won, second most defenders beaten, and second highest number of tackles, with an astounding 96% success rate in those tackles.

Outside of the statistics, he had eye-catching man of the match performances in the crucial win in NZ and against Australia at the end of the season. He had a phenomenal year.

leakyboots

Great research, fair play

crisco10

Great read, thanks for the research! Mad that Doris had more turnovers than Beirne, both having played a similar number of minutes. Anecdotally, I'd say most would assume that Beirne would be miles ahead on that one (or at least number 1).

again anecdotally, I suspect Doris gave away more penalties than Beirne winning said turnovers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970369#Comment_119970369

I'm not sure on what they specifically conceded their penalties for, but Beirne conceded 10 penalties (joint second most of all players). Don't have the stats in front of me right now, but will pull out the number for Doris later on.

Dubinusa

How many players were blooded? I can think of Loughman and JOB.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970966#Comment_119970966

Over the course of 2022 he gave debuts to Mack Hansen (Wales), Michael Lowry (Italy), Jimmy O'Brien (South Africa), Jeremy Loughman (Fiji), Jack Crowley (Fiji), Cian Prendergast (Fiji) and Joe McCarthy (Australia).

ionadnapokot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119968922#Comment_119968922

JvdF and Aki top try scorers:

My impression is that Ireland struggled off their set piece attack this Nov. They were very reliant on Lineout maul to setup and score tries.

Do you have a breakdown of tries scored for the year? e.g. Set piece v Phase play and turnovers

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970369#Comment_119970369

It really felt like all of Beirne's turnovers were at key moments in key areas of the field which make them memorable.

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971523#Comment_119971523

Exactly, 3 in about 5 minutes of the final NZ test come to mind. (although one of them wasn't a turnover per se, he just invited the neck roll by competing)

sydthebeat

theres a lot to be said for that blue scrum cap !

its easy in a game to mistake Ryan and Doris for each other as they have similar build and wear that black scum cap

stephen_n

The stats on Doris are very interesting in the context of the criticism and clamour to have him dropped after the first test in NZ. As he was having such a poor season, supposedly.

pickarooney

All the Doris criticism related to his handling errors. Are there any stats as to who knocked the ball on the most? Considering his amount of involvement in every aspect of the game it would be understandable and forgivable if Doris was high up that list.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973690#Comment_119973690

There is a stat for Turnovers Lost - but it's not crystal clear what it comprises. It seems to be a combination of a multitude of things including handling errors, loose kicks (which result in possession transferring) and finally getting turned over at the ruck in possession.

On that count, Mack Hansen (unusually) is by far in front, on 21. Second is Tadhg Beirne on 13, followed by JGP on 12 and then three players (Doris, Ringrose & Keenan) all on 11.

Doris' stats should be illegal. He is ridiculously good at rugby.

Another year without properly trialling a back up to Sexton, going into a world cup where he will be heavily targeted and our game plan revolves far too heavily around him.

All those stats are lovely, but a 2023 World Cup quarter final exit due to poor planning cannot be overlooked by great statistics from 2022.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973972#Comment_119973972

is this a p*ss take?

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973972#Comment_119973972

Against my better judgement engaging with posters like you........ just jog on mate.

It's nearly Christmas, would it kill you to show an iota of positivity at least for December?? If not for yourself than your loved ones? (assuming a person like you can possibly have any)

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973932#Comment_119973932

Turnovers lost is a funny one at least in the context of Irish rugby that's skewed against back 3 players.

To the best I can figure out chip and chase kicks are considered contestables so every one that is not regathered is considered a turnover. This is different to clearance kicks which a loss in possession is obviously expected. Where as the ol chip down the wing is a low percentage play but still considered a turnover when lost.

Similarly getting a hand to a high ball/ box kick and the team not retaining possession is considered a turnover also.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973972#Comment_119973972

FWIW as well, Joey Carbery got 264 minutes for Ireland last year, playing in 10 of 11 possible tests. Jack Crowley also got 106 minutes of international rugby.

Of the total minutes allocated to outhalves over the course of the year, Sexton played 57% of them, with the remainder split (Carbery 30%, Crowley 12%, Ross Byrne 1%).

pickarooney

Is turnovers lost not when you go for a jackal and get cleared out or told to leave it?

On second thoughts that would be almost impossible to calculate and would be a huge number if you did

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119974081#Comment_119974081

Yeah, agreed. I don't think it's a meaningful stat, so didn't include it in my initial write up.

That's a terrific read. The chosen stat brackets are particularly insightful and demonstrate the breadth and multifaceted nature of our game style under Farrell.

There is a fine line between confidence and arrogance and whilst the former is a very positive thing, Irish people are utterly allergic to the latter. It's a cultural quirk I quite like about our little corner of the world, but in a sporting context I think it can sometimes deprive us of the bit of swagger that occasionally means the difference between winning or losing in elite sports.

Over the last year I've been looking at how journalists in other countries write about the Irish rugby team, and listening to how players for other teams talk about the Irish rugby team and I've been finding the rhetoric somewhat jarring because I'm conditioned to us to be the underdog - reluctant to talk ourselves up. But this Irish team might very well be the real deal.

The dataset above is most interesting because it demonstrates the inventiveness of Ireland's game at the moment. We're not dominant in one or two aspects of play - we're just a little bit better at pretty much everything.

I think all the ingredients are baked into this squad for a deep, competitive tournament run and if we're in similar shape at the end of next Summer then I think we can go into the World cup with confidence. The affirmation a playing group gets from accounting for the detail, the physical demands and mental consistency required to deliver a year of rugby like 2022 should be massive and breed the confidence and belief that every World cup winning squad has possessed.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973972#Comment_119973972

Except none of that is correct.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970429#Comment_119970429

On this, Doris would have been 4th in most penalties conceded with 9 penalties (Top 3 were Porter -12, Ryan -10 and Beirne - 10). Next up after Doris was Furlong (8 pens), followed by both Sexton & Van der Flier on 6 each.

Best discipline from players who played meaningful minutes were Mack Hansen (0 penalties in 720 mins), Joey Carbery (0 in 264), Jimmy O'Brien (0 in 210) and Stuart McCloskey (0 in 159). All in 15 players conceded zero penalties, but of those only 7 players over 80 mins. Hugo Keenan (1 pen in 713 mins) and JGP (1 in 696 mins) also had good stats here.

Dubinusa

I do worry about our discipline. We seem to be giving up a lot. I think that this is an area the we need to work on. Under Schmidt, we were very good on the discipline front.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975053#Comment_119975053

We averaged just over (10.1) penalties a game conceded in 2022, which is about you'd expect. Our opponents were at 11.5 by contrast. Our worst disciplinary outings were England (where the interpretation of the scrums was a joke, acknowledged by the referees afterwards) where we conceded 15, and the second test in NZ (14).

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975053#Comment_119975053

There's a line.

I'm not saying to abandon discipline but things happen in a ruck or a maul that get pinged.

There's a risk of going passive if we are more disciplined. Ireland had the lowest amount of cards this year (tied with the Feench) of any tier 1 nation if 1 red card is considered equal to yellow cards otherwise we had the second lowest number of cards.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119974088#Comment_119974088

Again lovely numbers and statistics but taking the most recent games I don't think Carbery's 4 minutes versus South Africa and a run out versus Fiji is good enough preparation for a world cup quarter final against France or New Zealand.

Crowley (and Byrne) only got those minutes against Australia because Sexton was injured. We all know he would have played the majority of that game if fit.

Hopefully Carbery, Crawley, Byrne will be given real minutes in the 2023 6 Nations, and not the usual games against Italy and Scotland with a few minutes against England, France and Wales.

The one statistic that the majority will look back on this time next year is did Ireland get to a World Cup semi final (or hopefully even better than that).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975218#Comment_119975218

What good is getting to a semi final if we then lose it?

Would you rather win a Grand Slam or lose a semi final (if the option is just one or the other)?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975236#Comment_119975236

In 2023. World Cup semi final please.

Former Former Former

2022 was the year we moved on from out halves who definitely aren't good enough (Carty, Burns etc) to guys who might turn out to be good enough (Frawley, H Byrne, Crowley).

That's progress, even if people won't acknowledge it

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975256#Comment_119975256

Yeah, that's ridiculous.

Semi final appearances are a product of the draw primarily. If we switched places with England in this RWC, and managed to beat Japan and Argentina in our pool and then Wales in a likely QF, three teams we've thumped recently, would that make us a great team, if we then got opened up in the semi?

We've won three Grand Slams in 100 years. It's a bigger achievement.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975280#Comment_119975280

We had quarter finals against Wales in 2011 and Argentina in 2015, both of whom you'd have expected us to beat at the time. We didn't and we now have this monkey on our back, akin to not beating New Zealand for such a long time, that needs to be gotten past.

The Argentina result in 2015was directly attributable to having a team, not a squad. We've come a long way since then, with the glaring obvious exception at 10. Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

I’m not sure why you doubt that? Farrell has consistently picked Carbery as his 2nd choice 10.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975467#Comment_119975467

Gone way off topic here, apologies for derailing thread and its probably one that needs it's own thread. However giving Carbery 4 minutes against South Africa in November would not suggest to me that he is trusted to guide the team in a tight contest.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975479#Comment_119975479

How much he trusts him in comparison to Sexton is a different question tho. Your original was this:

Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

It’s clearly Carbery in Farrell’s thinking.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971227#Comment_119971227

I had a look at this, over the past 2 seasons. I broke down the tries by style of try (options either Line Break, Maul, Pick & Go, Numbers Up, Cross Field Kick, Kick Through or Strike Move), and then by Attack Build Up option (Multi Phase, Set Piece or Broken Play). I finally looked at the timing of when we scored our tries.

In 2021, we scored 46 tries in 10 games. Broken down by 'style' the largest component was Pick & Go tries (14 tries - 30% overall), followed by Line Break tries (11 tries - 24%), Numbers Up (9 tries - 20%) and then Mauls (7 tries - 15%). We had a handful of other tries via cross field kicks (1 try), kick throughs (3 tries) and a strike move try (1 try - Keith Earls v England).

In terms of attack build up - 27 tries came after Multi Phase play (59%), 5 via broken play (11%) and the remainder via Set Pieces (14 tries - 30%). Of the 14 set piece tries half were mauls (50%), 5 from line outs (36%) and 1 each from scrums and a quick tap penalty.

No particular concentration on when we scored our tries: split 48% first half v 52% second half; highest ten minute window was 70-80 mins (8 tries), but we scored 7 tries in the 30-40 min window and also in the 50-60 min window, so scattered around fairly evenly.

In 2022, we scored five fewer tries (41 overall) in 1 extra game. We played a tougher schedule in 2022, versus 2021 when we played the USA, Japan twice and Argentina.

Largest source of tries in 2022 was Line Breaks (18 tries - 44%), followed by Numbers up (8 tries - 20%), Pick & Go (7 tries - 17%) and then the maul (6 tries - 15%). One single try via cross field kick (dubious one - Mack Hansen v France but didn't know how to classify it) and one Turnover try (Ryan Baird charge down v Italy).

Largest build up source was again Multi Phase play (27 tries - 66%), followed by Set Pieces (11 tries - 27%), Broken Play (2 tries - 5%) and the solitary turnover try.

Of the 11 set piece tries, mauls accounted for 55% (6 tries), followed by scrums (3 tries - 27%), restart (1 try - 9%) and quick tap (1 try - 9%).

On the timing, we scored slightly more second half tries (56%), and the largest windows for scoring were the opening 10 mins (7 tries - 17%), ten mins after half time (7 tries - 17%) and final ten minutes (7 tries - 17%), which to me is testament to our coaches ability to identify weaknesses, our tendency to start well, and our fitness.

Conclusion

Despite the narrative, over the two seasons, the maul is actually our fourth highest source of tries (13 tries - 15%), considerably behind Line Breaks (29 tries - 33%), Pick & Go (21 tries - 24%) and Numbers Up situations (17 tries - 20%).

We score the majority of our tries from structured multi phase attacks (54 tries - 62%), with set piece next (25 tries - 29%), with surprisingly few Broken Play / Turnover tries (8 tries).

Over the two years, the biggest window for scoring tries is the final 10 mins (15 tries - 17%), this is probably skewed a little bit by a lot of late 'salt in the wound' tries against the likes of Italy, Argentina and Japan, with the only meaningful late tries in my opinion being the two scored against England this year in Twickenham.

From looking at the clips of all of these tries - the two best occasions where our attack looked especially fluid and dangerous were the NZ third test this summer and the November internationals in 2021, especially against Japan and Argentina.

The best overall tries in my opinion were:

Hugo Keenan v Italy (2021), James Lowe v Japan (2021), Caelan Doris v NZ (2021), Garry Ringrose v Wales (2022), Joey Carbery v Italy (2022), Mack Hansen v South Africa (2022) and obviously Robert Baloucoune's outrageous finish against the USA in 2021, but the single best try was Hugo Keenan v NZ (third test - 2022).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

No, there's not a team in world rugby who if they lost their 5 most important players arguably would have beaten Argentina in 2015 (and we still came relatively close). We lost Paul O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jonathan Sexton & Jared Payne. Taking the 5 equivalent guy (same positions) out of that same All Blacks side in that RWC (the best team I've ever seen) would have meant stripping them of Brodie Retallick, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Conrad Smith. There's no way that team wins the RWC in that scenario.

There's no monkey on the back for the vast majority of these players. A good chunk of our squad were barely teenagers when we lost to Wales in 2011, and telling them about Lens in 1999 or even Melbourne in 2003 might as well be telling them about when rugby was 20 players a side back in the 1800s for all the relevance it has on them.

On your final question - obviously Andy Farrell doesn't have a crystal ball - but if Sexton isn't fit, all signs point to Carbery starting at 10.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975479#Comment_119975479

Gone way off topic here, apologies for derailing thread and its probably one that needs it's own thread.

This is literally the last thing the Boards Rugby forum needs. The topic has been discussed to death at this point.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975218#Comment_119975218

carbery has 38 irish caps... he made his debut 8 years ago...... he isnt getting any better with the more minutes he is given, that is an indisputable fact at this stage. So he is where he is, and he is the clear second choice out half.

if carbery starts against France in the 6 nations then two things are clear

1. this will not make carbery a better player
2. this will reduce our chances of winning the game compared to starting sexton.

so it makes completely zero sense to start a fit carbery ahead of a fit sexton, all things being equal

in the off chance we bring a 3rd dedicated out half to france, we have moved on from carty and burns who have shown to be both not at the required level and not consistent enough to playing anything more than the dirt trackers of a RWC.

we have move donto crowley, frawley and brough Ross Byrne back into the mix.

Ross Byrne has 2 test starts to his name, both against a very good england team. hes 27 now and hes consistently consistent. We know what he can do, but his best traits probably suit a Schmidt ireland more than a Farrell ireland.

We tried Frawley at 10, and while there have been praise for his performances, id still describe it as serviceable more than anything else. His big issue is putting 80 min performances in back to back and staying uninjured.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975549#Comment_119975549

Will you marry me?

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975887#Comment_119975887

Again! Lol

TRC10

At this stage, anyone still claiming Carbery hasn't been given enough games is either being willfully ignorant or is just plain stupid. I've posted the exact stats a few times so I'm not doing it again. Go back and look for yourself.

There has to be some onus on the player himself to show some form that demands selection.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

How can even the most casual rugby fan who keeps one eye on Irish rugby, think anyone other than Carbery is the clear deputy to Sexton in Farrell's mind.

You can't be serious.

molloyjh

I also find the idea that we should have been beating Wales in 2011 quite odd. They had beaten us in the 6Ns that year and only came below us on the table on PD. And that came from a big win over England in the last game where we played far better than we had all tournament. This was also the same Welsh side who then went on to win back to back 6Ns titles after that.

Dubinusa

We had just beaten Oz in that tournament. One of our best displays. But, Wales had a good side and deserved to beat us.

molloyjh

Yes we had just beaten Oz. With Reddan and Sexton as the half backs. The same pairing that beat England in that 6Ns game. The 2 best results of the year with the half back pairing that also won a HEC playing some great rugby. And who did Kidney select to start the QF? Murray and ROG. A duo that had started all of once together for Ireland before that. To this day I just cannot get my head around that decision. Why start such an important game with such an inexperienced 9 and a 10 who was on his way out as opposed to the guys who have proven to deliver. It was shocking stuff really.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119977407#Comment_119977407

Cause ROG threw a hissy fit and threatened to retire and Kidney was too weak to tell him to piss off.

Anyhoos - its been a good year in lots of ways. The lack of a trophy to show for our clear improvement is an issue though and one that Farrell will be very keen to address so anyone expecting shadow teams in the 6N is in for some disappointment.