December 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this includes 24th as well as 25th of December. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 4h late to 1500h Monday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 9 points accumulated to that time).

Good luck !!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -9.1 _ 080 _ 130 _ 3.6 -2.3 Yes, Mullingar

Bsal

Bsal _____ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ -4.5 _ 108 _ 104 _ 7.0_1.1 No

Danno

Danno _____ 2.7 _ 12.9 _ -12.3 _ 065 _ 160 _ 1.8 -8.8 Yes, Ballyhaise

(haven't had a great year at this contest, so hoping to go all out with a bang!) 😂

pauldry

Pauldry_____ 5.4 _ 13 _ -6 _ 85 _ 110 _ 9.0_3.1 No

dasa29

Dasa29 _____ 5.0 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 100 _ 6.0_-2.0 No

200motels

200motels____ 3.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.1 _ 083 _ 131 _ 3.8 -2.4 Yes, Mullingar

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.1° ___ 14.0 ___ -6.5 ___ 80 ___ 115 ___ 8 & 1 No.

mrskinner

Skinner______5.7____14.4____-3.4____94____104____9,2,No.

John mac

john mac____ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 108 _ 98 _ 5.8 ,1.4 Yes, knock

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 3.3 _ 13.3 _ -9.3 _ 83 _ 123___ 4.3 -3.3 Yes, Knock

Stuck on 3s because I have the tree up, Merry Christmas to all.

It's going to be a cold cold Christmas or maybe not ☃️

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____ 6.0 _ 15.8 _ -4.9 _ 133 _ 105 __ 11.2 _ 5.8 __ no

NormaL ________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.2 _ 2.2 __ no

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow_____ 4.3 _ 14.6 _ -6.2 _ 078 _ 140 _ 6_ -2.1 Yes, Knock

(May as well enter for the last one :P )

Gonzo

Gonzo ____ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.8 _ 108 _ 112 __ 11.8 _ 4.3 __ no

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 111 __ 8.1 _ -0.8 __ YES, Knock.

waterways

waterways _____ 5.6 __ 15.3 __ -4.0__ 91 __ 97 __ 9.0_4.0 No

We can only hope that Danno's SSW will not take place this winter.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.5 _ 85 _ 95 ___ 4.2 _- 3.2 __ Yes Dublin

esposito

esposito _____ 4.6 _ 11.8 _ -8.6 _ 095 _ 104 _ 7.9_-1.1_ No

appledrop

Appledrop__5.0__14.5___-6.4__110__95__8.6__2.0__Snow? No way Jose.

I'll happily be wrong on the Snow as that will mean a rare white Christmas😁🌲.

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 5.3 _ 15.2 _ -8.7 _ 121 _ 100 __ 4.5 _ -2.8 yes - Dublin

appledrop

Danno -12.3 🥶😱.

Your bringing back memories of winter 2011, -13 degrees driving to parents and inlaws on Christmas Day, I'll never forget it for as long as I live.

adam240610

adam240610___ 3.5_ 14.8 _ -8.8 _ 103_ 111 _ 10.1_1.4 no

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___5.1___14.9___-7.4___88___102__7.8__2.2__no

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 88 _ 98 ___ 11.3 _ 5.0 __ no

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -6.1 _ 80 _ 105 ___ 8.3 _ 2.0 __ no

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 4.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 7.2 _ 3.2 __ no

bazlers

Bazlers__________2.9__13.1__-11.8__75_115

__7.2___-8__Yes Casement.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for December 2022

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ 25th Dub (A) _ snow? 24/25

M.T. Cranium _________ 6.0 _ 15.8 _ -4.9 _ 133 _ 105 __ 11.2 __ 5.8 __ No

Tae laidir ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 088 _ 098 __ 11.3 __ 5.0 __ No

john mac ____________ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 108 _ 098 ___ 5.8 __ 1.4 __ Yes, Knock

MrSkinner ___________ 5.7 _ 14.4 _ -3.4 _ 094 _ 104 ___ 9.0 __ 2.0 __ No

waterways ___________5.6 _ 15.3 _ -4.0 _ 091 _ 097 ___ 9.0 __ 4.0 __ No

__ NormaL __________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.2 __ 2.2 __ No

Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 13.0 _ -6.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 9.0 __ 3.1 __ No

Dacogawa ___________ 5.3 _ 15.2 _ -8.7 _ 121 _ 100 ___ 4.5 _ -2.8 __ Yes, Dublin

DOCARCH ___________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 8.1 _ -0.8 __ Yes, Knock.

Mr stonewall _________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -7.4 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 7.8 __ 2.2 __ No

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -6.5 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 8.0 __ 1.0 __ No

Sunflower3 __________ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -6.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 8.3 __ 2.0 __ No

Appledrop ___________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.4 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 8.6 __ 2.0 __ No .

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 6.0 _ -2.0 __ No

___ Con Sensus ______ 5.0 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 088 _ 105 ___ 7.8 __ 1.4 __ No (15/26)

Gonzo ______________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.8 _ 108 _ 112 __ 11.8 __ 4.3 __ No

Artane2002 __________4.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 7.2 __ 3.2 __ No

Bsal ________________4.8 _ 13.1 _ -4.5 _ 108 _ 104 ___ 7.0 __ 1.1 __ No

esposito ____________ 4.6 _ 11.8 _ -8.6 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 7.9 _ -1.1 __ No

SleetAndSnow ________4.3 _ 14.6 _ -6.2 _ 078 _ 140 ___ 6.0 _ -2.1 __ Yes, Knock

Jpmarn _____________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.5 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 4.2 _ -3.2 __ Yes, Dublin

200motels __________3.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.1 _ 083 _ 131 ___ 3.8 _ -2.4 __ Yes, Mullingar

sryanbruen __________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -9.1 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 3.6 _ -2.3 __ Yes, Mullingar

adam240610 _________3.5 _ 14.8 _ -8.8 _ 103 _ 111 ___10.1 __1.4 __ No

Joe Public ___________ 3.3 _ 13.3 _ -9.3 _ 083 _ 123 ___ 4.3 _ -3.3 __ Yes, Knock

Bazlers _____________ 2.9 _ 13.1 _-11.8 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 7.2 _ -8.0 __ Yes, Casement

Danno ______________ 2.7 _ 12.9 _-12.3_ 065 _ 160 ___ 1.8 _ -8.8 __ Yes, Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___ 0.7 _ 12.7 _ -14.7 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.7__ -5.8 __ Yes, Casement

WolfEire ___ (-5) ______ 4.7 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 95 _ 100 __ 10.7__ 5.8 __ no

===================================

For the snowfall question, 11/25 selected "yes" and of those, Knock had four votes, Mullingar, Dublin and Casement had two each, and Ballyhaise one. NormaL and Con Sensus can only score 3 if there is no snow 24th-25th.

Lots of spread in the forecasts with perhaps two camps, a cold/dry/sunny group and a mildish/wet/cloudy group.

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _________ 0.7 _ 12.7 _ -14.7 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.7__ -5.8 __ Yes, Casement

M.T. Cranium

I am aware of some errors in the table of forecast entry for BLIZZARD7 above, thought I had changed them but now it's too late to edit the table. If a moderator happens to have that superpower go ahead and use it, but I will score from the entry not the wrong data.

WolfeEire

Sorry I'm late, MT. It's ok if you cant include

WolfEire

4.7 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 95 _ 100 __ 10.7__ 5.8 __ no

M.T. Cranium

I'll score it at end of month, can't edit the table now.

DOCARCH

I have edited and added WolfEire. Presume WolfEire is -5?

M.T. Cranium

Thanks DOCARCH, I just noted a minor error in the Nov category scoring update too, if you have a chance there's one number that needs to be changed. The late penalties for the last two entrants here don't really have much bearing on anything other than if they stayed on all winter it would affect the four seasons results.

M.T. Cranium

Before I forget I noted a high of 11.9 on 1st at Finner Camp, wonder when that will be outdone? (it wasn't beaten on 2nd).

I was just looking at the guidance and would say IMT is going to be around 2.0-2.5 by 10th, could drop a little more, then who knows, could go either way. There was a tropical storm sort of a system west of the Azores forming up and heading up towards Ireland around 12th, in a weakened condition, and more Atlantic waves after that on one recent guidance run. I need all the warmth the Atlantic can create in second half to stand much of a chance of avoiding a historic low, I would say defeat but I think that ship sailed around June.

M.T. Cranium

-3 was noted at Gurteen around 0400h Wed, will check more exact values there and Markree but these likely to be overtaken later anyway.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951700#Comment_119951700

I think I was just a few mins late with entry, Docarch . I'll take my punishment if minus 5 means five points deducted. My goal is to secure an overall minus score now. An achievement in itself surely 🙂

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119969624#Comment_119969624

The deadline was actually 0300h 1st, I had posted the table with a late penalty for BLIZZARD7 who entered later on the first, so if you were a regular in what is the last month of our annual contest, you might have been looking at more than 5 points, but as it's your first entry it really makes very little difference to the contest and I just let the -5 stand. Another policy that might come into play for you and me is that the contest has a never-before-needed minimum score of 10. I am relying on the mother of all warming trends to save my sorry ass. You and several others might only need the aunt.

DOCARCH

-3.2c at Gurteen yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Even now if we had a second chance to do MIN or IMT there would no doubt be quite a range, I could see where this cold spell never goes below -5 at a reporting site but if any snow falls and then there's a clear spell you could easily see -8 to -12. Thinking the coldest might be around Sunday. And as to IMT, the GFS shows a pronounced warming trend after mid-month, the ECM is much less progressive. You could make a case for almost all of our IMT predictions even now.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT 5.3 was 0.8 below normal.

MAX 11.9 and MIN -3.2

PRC 35% of normal, would have been lower except for Casement 163% (west almost dry).

SUN 127.3% of normal (764/600)

DOCARCH

Mount Dillon reporting -7c this morning.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was 0.6 C for the 8th which will leave the running mean close to 4.7 C for 1st to 8th. Guidance is saying close to zero on average for 9th to 16th now, slight rises 17th-18th and much milder 19th to 25th. We could get down as low as 2.0 by 17th or 18th before a steady rise back towards perhaps 4 C if it stayed milder (and the guidance proves correct). It would take some record mild days like we saw at end of last December to reach 5 C. Also it could stay quite dry and as our six sunshine locations are not overly prone to ice fog in most cases, it could be quite sunny.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973839#Comment_119973839

Met E saying this morning it was -6.9c.

M.T. Cranium

Not in the IMT but Gurteen was BRR-teen and Dunsany (highs t.b.d. but appear to be 0.5 or lower, Gurteen shows as -0.2 on meteociel). Oak Park even colder, max -0.5 ... Athenry -1.3.

DOCARCH

Low temp for yesterday has been revised to -6.8c according to Met E.

appledrop

Thanks Docarch and the MAX for Atherny yesterday was -1.3, good job we didn't do the low Max this month I would never have guessed that!

DOCARCH

-7.8c recorded at Athenry overnight (according to Met E on the radio).

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119982611#Comment_119982611

-8.1C the final figure according to their Twitter. Lowest Dec temp in the country since 2010.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119983015#Comment_119983015

-9.7C in Durrow, March 1st 2018?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119989758#Comment_119989758

I said December specifically Danno. Plus lower was observed in January 2021 too.