Have We Peaked Again Pre WC

SaoPaulo41

Let's call a spade a spade.Ireland are deservedly #1 in World, but with WC onway and a bad draw,how do you think we will do?

Seems a lot like last time we were #1

My thoughts exactly

Larbre34

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

France and New Zealand will still most likely beat us, all things being equal.

But at a RWC, all things aren't equal, its a war of attrition and a test of depth like no other. That attrition killed us before, especially in 2015.

Are we in good form? Yes

Are we peaking? Maybe. We won't know till the WC

If so, can we sustain it another 10 months? Yes, I'd say the chances of doing so are better than at any time previously.

Do we have better depth than before? An embarrassment of riches in some divisions, but still question marks over the vital 1,3,9 and 10. Maybe 5 also. We saw South Africa today without a 10. If they had one like Morne Steyn, we'd have been beaten by 10 or 12.

Will we top our RWC pool? Probably.

Will we beat either France or NZ in the QFs? All else being equal, no, I don't think so.

Verdict? Quarter final exit. Again.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

If you think it is a lot like last time we were #1 then you were paying piss all attention to the last time we were #1 as it bears very little comparison.

We still have an absolute pisser of a draw. Do I think we can beat France or NZ in France come the QF? Absolutely. Will we? hard to know - the 4 best teams in the world are on the same side of the draw and such is life.

pickarooney

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

The official rankings might say otherwise but we're a bit behind the actual best team in the world and they have home advantage of and when they play us at the RWC.

And as for depth, Friday should have somewhat disabused us of that idea.

But we can beat SA, Scotland and NZ, provided Sexton is in situ and on form, which is itself about 50/50.

johnnyskeleton

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

The phrase peaked too soon is unhelpful because it makes it seem deliberate or that you can only be good for a limited period of time.

In 2018 Ireland had played some amazing rugby. But every big match was hard fought and things bounced our way. Schmidt had figured out the secret sauce to beating New Zealand - commit everyone to creating an impenetrable line of 14 which NZ cant penetrate and are effectively choked out! Great strategy, but Eddie Jones quickly figured out for 2019 that a good kicking game cuts through this strategy.

Then the squad got demoralised and it seemed like they struggled in every match.

It wasnt that they just peaked and tapered off a bit, its that they had a good but risky strategy which worked and got a few lucky breaks in 2018 and then the pressure got to them.

This time, they seem to be built on a much more solid footing. They are more flexible under Farrell and its working. In 2019 there was no obvious full back and Sexton appeared to be having a crisis of confidence. Murray was playing well, but the JGP style of play suits Ireland much better.

Areas of weakness - scrum and front row depth, who to choose on the wings and the big problem (for me anyway) is what will Andy Farrell do if Sexton doesnt have his head in the game. I think he could well reach a point where Sexton is more of a liability than an asset, and its not clear if Farrell will make the difficult choice to pick someone else ahead of him.

In any event, regardless of the world cup, lets have an undefeated november series and maybe we will do well in the six nations

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

No back up to sexton , furlong, Gibson park

roll on 2027

Girly Gal

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

We might be the number 1 ranked side in the world, which seems mainly based on beating New Zealand, who themselves were in poor form at the time. We don't have any silverware to show for being the number 1 side, also it has to be said if SA had a decent kicker today, we'd have lost. I do think we are much more flexible under Farrell than under Schmidt, when everything was so controlled and pre-programmed, that when things were going against us just we weren't able to adapt and change during a match. Farrell has given the side much more flexibility which allows the side to adjust and adapt during games, which is a great ability to have.

I think drawing France or NZ( much like the last WC when it was NZ or SA) is the biggest problem, probably couldn't have gotten a worse draw, had we been on the other side of the draw we would have a much better chance of progressing to the semi final, as it is I think another quarter final knockout is very much on the cards. We'll just have to hope for a kinder quarter final draw next time around.

stephen_n

No it's different this time,we are on fire

The idea we have peaked too soon is predicated on the false notion, this is the peak performance of the team. We beat SA yesterday, while actually playing relatively poorly by our recent standards. There is a lot of room for improvement and we know they are capable of that.

Number one in the world means feck all really. What matters is the layers they are adding to their game. The amount of injuries and lack of gametime for key players would have absolutely screwed us in the past. In fact it has at previous RWC. Yet they came out yesterday and managed to arm wrestle the strongest team in the world. Obviously with the caveat that it’s unlikely Kolbe or Willemse will be doing the kicking in a serious game.

Shehal

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839753#Comment_119839753

If we are abit behind the actual best team then why are Ireland 1st? The 6N also indicated there wasnt much between the sides either.

What Friday showed is throwing a bunch of kids together and hoping they would have continuity isn't a good idea, like the 1st Maori test in NZL.

We are good enough to beat anyone we play as long as we believe we can, none of this loser/humble talk like we saw from Alan Quinlan during the week, we need to go into a RWC with abit of arrogance for a change.

Shehal

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839568#Comment_119839568

What exactly is similar this time to the last time we were number 1 could you tell me out of curiosity? I ask this because I don't really see the resemblance.

moonshy2022

No it's different this time,we are on fire

Oh Jesus FFS not this crap again. Some would have said after beating New Z away it was a peak, but then we go on and beat the World Champs with a ravaged team. Have we peaked ?! Show me where the peak is exactly ? The thing is you can’t because it’s only something you will ever see when you look back.

Irish people love talking teams down, Irish people love misery. I’m happy that you’ve all found people you can be unhappy with, but would you all mind going off together so we can enjoy our wins.

Jesus wept where would you lot like us to be exactly. Beaten soundly in New Z ? Losing at home to the Boks and Oz ?

Brief_Lives

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839594#Comment_119839594

Good post..

"Do we have better depth than before? An embarrassment of riches in some divisions, but still question marks over the vital 1,3,9 and 10. Maybe 5 also. We saw South Africa today without a 10. If they had one like Morne Steyn, we'd have been beaten by 10 or 12."

I would say for the 6 nations coming up, we need to be starting back up players for most of the matches in the positions you outlined above.

I think this 6 nations and ranking are the last things we need to be thinking about (I know 6 bations cash is bread and butter).

We need definite experience for our backups... and not 3 minutes (re:Carberry)

I'll feel alot morepositive when backups get significant exposure..

Doak Casey Coombes JOB Osbourne Thornbury Baird Hodnett Hume McClosky Rea Crowley Moore

OldRio

Do people actually believe you can get a team to 'peak', whatever that means when you want them to?

Like flicking a switch?

If we were beaten in NZ would that be part of the master plan?

If we had lost yesterday, would that be good planning?

We all know Irelands major weekness. And most of us realise that there is noone within an arses roar good enough to step up.

Any of the top 4 or 5 can win the World Cup. All can beat each other on any given day.

Whoever wins will need luck.

StevenToast

Seems a lot like last time we were #1

The world cup isnt about getting to a semi final....for this team its about winning it.....

The problem is beating SA and NZ will take a toll by the time we get to the semis......

realhorrorshow

It's hard to imagine a 2018 style malaise under Farrell. Our attacking shape is also not as easily shut down as Schmidt's attritional style, plus we have just shown we can beat top teams even when our phase play is not making inroads. The WC largely comes down to luck with injuries imo. As things stand, if Sexton goes down we are cooked. Just like South Africa would have been without Pollard in 2019.

Downlinz

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

We'll have a 38 year old outhalf at the RWC with barely any minutes in big games given to alternatives. We're toast in the QF.

Former Former Former

People's answers are dictated entirely by their personality. This is the rugby equivalent of "is the glass half full or half empty".

We just beat South Africa but we had lots of areas in which we can improve, we gave three guys their biggest test yet in international rugby and we had to reshuffle quite a bit due to injury.

There are plenty of reasons to believe we can get better. Plenty of reasons to be concerned too, but that's the way of the game.

Dubinusa

Attrition is similar for all sides. Building depth is where matches are won. Farrell is doing well. Rassie is doing similar with SA. The "A" game was to see how fringe players cope. Unfortunately, they couldn't and some lads will be waiting post world cup for a bite at the big show. NZ will be delighted their xv on Friday. I think that depth wise they are ahead of us. Peaking early is irrelevant, if we can't chuck boys into the team and maintain standards. Obviously, Carberry only got 3 minutes and I think that says everything. He's really not trusted or rated. He should start next week. A good outing v Fiji may get him into a run of confidence and good play.

Sexton is beyond incredible! 37 years of age and staring down the boks! What a player.

Patsy167

They briefly discussed this topic on the OTB Sunday paper review and made an interesting point that if all of the top rugby nations were given the option of having the World Cup now or in one years time, only Ireland would choose now.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840677#Comment_119840677

The alternatives have shown time and time and time again, that they aren't at the required level in "big" games. They are barely passable in lesser games.

We've tried burns, Byrne's x 2, carty and carbery. Lately we're trying frawley and Crowley.

We're also developing a game style which is less dependent on our 10.

The lack of a realistic replacement for sexton is absolutely not the fault of the coaching team, and no amount is minutes in "big games" is going to make any of them any better.... Which has been proven over and over

Larbre34

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840677#Comment_119840677

Its the elephant in the room. We'll never make it through the pool intact (as nobody does), but there's a higher than average chance that one of those down will be Sexton.

My perception yesterday was that he is feeling his age. Seen really blowing after a gnarly period of defence and he really felt that chest shot and quad strain for the second half.

Sexton must not play against Fiji, of Italy, Scotland or Wales.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841080#Comment_119841080

He can't go 2 months playing only one game either...

We don't need him to beat Scotland, but its also 2 weeks after the South Africa game. We have far more rest this time round.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841080#Comment_119841080

12 tackles yesterday including one that resulted in a maul / turnover and one other where the player was held up in the tackle. Most tackles of any of the backs.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841097#Comment_119841097

I thought the previous poster was suggest that Sexton be rested for Fiji next week and Wales Scotland and Italy in the six nations to develop a replacement.

Maybe not feasible if we need 6 nations money but if we are winning we should definitely haul him ashore early.

In the rugby world cup we will be fine if theres no injuries. Rest Sexton for Romania, play him against Tonga (pull him ashore after 50 minutes if need be) and South Africa. Then there's a rest week before Scotland.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841135#Comment_119841135

Sorry yeah, skim read it too quickly.

He's going to play against Scotland and Wales for sure though.

pickarooney

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840055#Comment_119840055

We're first because we played and beat NZ while France didn't. We haven't beaten France in a while so unless and until we beat them in the spring we can't legitimately claim to be better than them.

lawrencesummers

We should be smart and play a second string team against SA in the pool stage.

No point flogging the horses for an extra 80 minutes because playing NZ or France is much a muchness in the QF and going to war with SA will only fill the treatment tables before the business end of the competition.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841388#Comment_119841388

Deliberately losing is not smart.

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841402#Comment_119841402

it suited SA just fine in japan

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841415#Comment_119841415

Oh yeah, massive second team there. Basically not even trying. 🙄

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841388#Comment_119841388

I'd agree if SA was the last pool game but we have 14 days between SA and Scotland and then another week before the QF.

Test ourselves.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841454#Comment_119841454

I'd never agree. Essentially forfeiting a game like that would be poison for a squad's morale.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841465#Comment_119841465

Fair point.

The scars of 2015 world cup sit with me still.

Sexton and O'Connell injured and O'Brien cited in the final pool stage game after we had already qualified.

Seems a lot like last time we were #1

Some day we'll actually build towards a World Cup.

Podge_irl

No it's different this time,we are on fire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841492#Comment_119841492

Already qualified, but no one wanted to face that NZ team for good reason. Not like losing worked out well for France.

Players can get injured in training. We got exceptionally unlucky in 2015 but it happens.

Scotland threw their game against NZ in 07 in bloody Scotland and it was embarrassing and I never want to watch my team do that.

AbusesToilets

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

I don't think the concept of peaking fits. NZ in the past have been consistently excellent. They did that on the back of great coaching, and a scheme that was bedded in. The players had confident in themselves and the system. This is what Farrell has been developing.

We saw yesterday that we can win against a team looking to grind us down physically. We have the talent to out play anyone. We've shown a newfound level of consistency with our intensity, which was lacking in previous years.

It'll probably be a toss up in the 1/4, France in the Stade would be an insane atmosphere to play in, but that cuts both ways. NZ will require precision and intense physicality, but the team knows they can beat them. They can win this WC, if injuries don't scupper us, and if we perform to our abilities, but I'd expect a battling 1/4 exit until proven otherwise.

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841454#Comment_119841454

if we cant beat Scotland in a must win game we have no business progressing to the knock out stages anyway.

The world cup isnt won in the group stages, but it can be lost if your squad gets hammered before the knockouts.

The winners or losers of the SA game wont matter a bit when all is said and done.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841492#Comment_119841492

"After we had already qualified"

If we'd lost against France, we'd have played NZ in the QF. Going full strength against France was the only option.

Throwing the match against SA would be madness because a freak result against Scotland can never be ruled out.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841499#Comment_119841499

That day is today. Huzzah!

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841696#Comment_119841696

Or we go full strenght against SA, get decimated in pivotal positions and then lose to scotland

magic17

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

I'd like to think we'll give SA a game and beat Scotland. Then on to France or NZ which is probably where our tournament ends. Any other combination of teams and you'd fancy our chances of winning a knockout game but the draw has been a disaster.

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841850#Comment_119841850

Yea, play our QF in the group stages. Great idea

Shehal

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841340#Comment_119841340

If France were well ahead this would be reflected in the rankings just like when NZL were well ahead in 2015. They are argubly the best team in the world but to say they are "well ahead" is nonsense. Im not arguing that they arent the best im arguing against the notion that they are well ahead, they beat Ireland by 6 points in the 6n and scored less and conceded more points throughout the championship, how does that make them well ahead? If you swapped out France and put Ireland in their place noone would be saying we would be well ahead of the rest of the world just like its not the case now if France are there.

Then again France are practically everyones 2nd team so there is an element of bias when asses where they currently stand.

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

It could easily be the case we show up to the RWC, play really well, and still lose to SA and France/NZ. I don't feel we've peaked or are heading for a cliff but you never know. We had an extremely average 6N in 2019 with bad losses to Wales and England. The England game in 2019 was a massive red flag, we got absolutely battered and never really recovered from it. There's still quite a ways to go to the RWC but we've had an excellent 2022 so I'm pretty positive.

Shehal

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841388#Comment_119841388

I still find it amusing how some on continue to desperately make every situation suit there narrative...the 23 was practically the same 23 in both matches...

Clegg

I don't give a shite about the World Cup. If given the choice between making it past a QF or winning the Six Nations Championship I'm choosing the latter every time.

Play Sexton in every game for the Championship bar maybe the Italy fixture. Put yourself in the best position to win the championship.

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841980#Comment_119841980

How is it that both 23’s are the same for a game a year away?

Shehal

We need to strengthen in some positions but I'm feeling positive

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119842088#Comment_119842088

Between the NZL pool game that you seem to suggest they played a B team in and the final against England where you said they played their best team in...its practically the same 23 from what I can see.

VayNiice

The more I think of it, the more I'd choose France in the QF. I feel they've developed more of an aura or fear factor in the past 12 months but at the end of the day, they're a team we should be very familiar with.

If they were to lose Willemse and/or Atonio they have lost a huge amount of their size advantage. Add to that we've now shown we can overcome the biggest pack of them all in SA. Also our scrum has improved massively since the last six nations.

I think if we draw NZ in the QF they will be looking for blood and will be seriously hurting from losing the series at home to us.

Horrible draw we are gone in 1/4

We have now proven we can beat the best teams in the world, but a quarter final versus France at their home world Cup, or New Zealand will be a stretch too far. The quarter final stigma, reliance on an aging Sexton, and NZ being able to switch it on when it truly matters, or France in front of a home crowd will be too much for us unfortunately.

Carvery or AN Other needs to see serious game time in 2023 Six Nations. Watching Carbery come on yesterday at 77 mins was like Homer Simpson telling Nelson to take a forfeit note to the referee. Either back him or get rid of him.