The 13th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread (Christmas 2022)
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01-11-2022 12:17pm#1
Its that day again, 1 November, when with Halloween over us, thoughts turn now to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming and thus its time to re-open our White Christmas thread for 2022!
Last year was yet another bust. As I recorded in a post on Stephen's day 2021 "..Highest temp was 12c at Valentia, lowest was 4.6 at Casement and there was a lot rain, especially in Leinster, with Johnstown Castle recording 58.9mm. And no, there was no snow...See ye all from 1 November 2022 onwards, same Bat place, same Bat thread.... ( as I type this I'm reminded that we will share the run in to Christmas next year with a World Cup - mad)...".
And so, here we are, good as our word (still think a December WC is wierd too btw....).
This thread is going since 2010, the first is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many...) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!
As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.
The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow at one of our airports I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 18 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).
A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .
It would be great if you could actually get a situation where, say, 5 days out it looked like we had proper cold upper temperatures forecast to be over us for Xmas day and thus a decent chance of snow. We’ve never had that on this thread save for 2010 – and in fact in 2010 most of us had snow on the ground 5 days out and could see it wasn’t going to melt by the big day so there was no drama then either.
Anyway we are getting used to mild Christmases. But surely this year will be different? I mean it is still exceptionally mild all over Europe on 1 November and this is our thirteenth thread, so what could go wrong?
Right, enough intro, let's talk weather.
The CFS (a long range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows as follows for the big day:-
That shows a bit of a northerly outbreak on Christmas day, with some cool temps - not bad when looking for a White Christmas. But as that is a weather map for T1308 (i.e. 1308 hours away) there is still just about time for that to change! In fact the CFS does show some lying snow on the big day as per below...
The excellent The Weather Outlook are doing a blog as always at https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/christmas-weather-forecast which is worth following.
I will update this every few days and especially when there are any positive straws in the wind. I'm sure the usual (and more knowledgeable) posters will join in too. As we look at charts and maps in the run up to the big day we can talk about what we are looking for in same in terms of snow prospects. But in the meantime, if you are new and want to educate yourself, I would heartily recommend the "stickied" thread on this forum at https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057947753/parameters-required-for-guaranteed-snow-in-ireland#latest .
As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic. This one is of Tramore Beach, Co. Waterford, amazing photo - assume its from March 2018. T'would be great to see something like this this year...
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I suppose its been a week so just to update. CFS still the only game in town at this remove. Seems to have a funny set up with the atlantic blocked save for a big low pressure system trapped over us. Would be very wet in the lead up and a bit drier on the day with temps of 5c to 10c. Meh but not mild per se. See below
Below of course is what we are looking for - its Dublin from Christmas week 2010.
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Apologies for radio silence - stupid work getting in the way.....
Anyway, just a quick update. Just over 1000 hours to go so things are (quite literally, unfortunately) hotting up. The CFS shows as follows today:-
So not a hope of snow with those temps. Will do a proper update in the coming days....
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Well, the long term charts continue to give little to cheer for those of us seeking a White Christmas - though I know on different threads there is discussion of changes in the upper atmosphere that might help to alter that. For now though the CFS is showing a mild, pleasant Xmas day as per below, with High Pressure in charge...
The GFS is still quite a bit away from assisting in terms of covering the Xmas period, let alone the other models. Met Eireann do give a monthly forecast on their website which presently goes out to 22 December. The most recent forecast for the final week of that period is a little more encouraging, stating:-
"...Week 4 (Friday 16 December to Thursday 22 December)
Week four is fairly natural usually signifying a transition and low confidence. But with the predominant picture showing low pressure to the northeast and weak high pressure to the southwest a northerly airflow looks most likely. Temperatures will be close to average and a likely showery set up would bring slightly above average rainfall to Ulster and below average rainfall to Munster. Potential hazards in this period grow slightly with the northerly airflow likely bringing some winter mixed precipitation and frost potential at night...."
Just to give context, the last widespread White Christmas (falling snow on the big day), was in 2004. So what did the charts look like that day? Thanks to TheWeatherOutlook I have pasted them below. A polar airflow off the north north west was the catalyst for beefy snow showers for many that day. 18 years on, we are overdue something similar!
Very few photos online of the 2004 snow. I've attached one below from the Wicklow mountains, but it was snowing at sea level in much of the country (including my part of the world in Cork). There are a few videos on youtube, one of the Sligo snow in 2004, but won't link here. Til next time...
Post edited by Rebelbrowser on6 -
Just to update this. Less than 4 weeks to go so we aren't far away from having some actual guidance. For now, we are still using the CFS - but it paints an interesting picture.....
Right now the CFS suggests a bit of a temperature spread on the big day - mild in the SW but colder (not cold) as you go NE. Dry everywhere so not a bad Xmas day at all. Probably frosts by night before and after for many too. See charts below.
Daytime temps
Upper temps....
Pressure chart
However, what is interesting is that by Xmas day there is a serious cold pool over central Europe trying to move to our neck of the woods. It gets as far as SE England by Xmas day but then gets diluted as it gets to our shores around the 27th. Very seasonal but no snow. Alas, if this long term forecast is generally correct, it is the kind of set up that could end up 300 miles further west and a very days earlier in which case Christmas snow would very much be on the cards. A straw in the wind, but an optimistic one.... See chart from 27 December below fyi.
Keep the faith folks, we are overdue.... We could yet be seeing some of this by the big day (Muckross House in Killarney shown..):-
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As attention is well focussed on the pre-Christmas cold spell coming up, another look at the CMS (it's 7days now until the GFS brings us up to the big day)...
Pressure patterns suggest a receding high pressure from Ireland into the continent, but still a strong high.
Cool enough under that with 2c to 6c highs. Dry.
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Obviously, focus for all at the moment is on the cold spell just started. Its depth and duration are still up in the air which shows the difficulty in predicting the weather for the big day. As of tomorrow we will start to get model guidance for Xmas day from the GFS model. The others will come on stream later in the week. Right now the GFS goes out to Xmas Eve and suggests mild air and rain moving in from the west replacing cold weather at that time. Let's see what tomorrow, and our first proper look at Xmas day, shows. Its far from impossible either that the current cold lasts until the big day or, more likely than that scenario, that we get a reload of the current cold for around Xmas day. indeed MTC mentions that possibility in today's forecast.
Today's GFS for Xmas day is pasted below just for completeness....
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Well, it's here, the day we finally say goodbye to the CFS and start looking at the main weather models. Only the American Global Forecasting System (GFS) goes out to 25 December yet, so we will focus on it. And it is saying....that it will be a cold Christmas but no snow presently forecast. It shows the following 2 metre (what we experience) and upper atmosphere (where our weather generally comes from) temperatures at 7am on the big day...
Not bad, very seasonal anyway.
That said, MTC this morning is calling for a mild Xmas days with westerly winds so not all good news.
Keep the faith folks...
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Just to update this. As you'll gather from other threads, Christmas period weather is still a great unknown. MTC continues to be downcast on our chances for cold and snow. In Ireland, you will always be safer to assume that of course. But in general the models suggest that the current really cold spell (its -2 at midday at my location as I type this!) will last until Saturday / Sunday. Very little doubt that we will get an Atlantic influence from Sunday, but how much and for how long is still in doubt. Some models suggest we will enter a mobile phase of weather where will alternate between mild interludes and cold (not freezing like now) interludes every 36 hours or so. Thus in that scenario, it just depends where Xmas day falls in that continuum as to whether we get cold on the big day. Other models though hint that the "breakdown" this weekend could be quite short lived with a reload of real cold in the days leading up to Christmas.
GFS is still the only model going out to Xmas day. It shows the mobile, mild / cold interchange scenario, but shows a cold plunge coinciding with 25 December after a mild Christmas Eve. See below. We should get a much clearer picture in the coming days though....
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Perturbation 19 on the 06z GFS (3.33% chance of happening) 😁
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=17&ext=0
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Just to give the actual state of play, the most recent model run, the 6z GFS (American model) shows Xmas day being very seasonal and pleasant with HP firmly over the whole island. Dry as a bone, afternoon temps of mid single figures with frost on both Xmas Eve and Xmas night.
The other models go out to midnight on Christmas Eve and, in general, the ECM (Euro model) shows a LP system to the SW bringing milder air and probably rain - but the trajectory of that LP suggests it might slide away to the south of the country and if it does that it will drag down colder air in its wake for Christmas night and onwards. Lastly the GEM (Canadian model) is our current favourite as it shows an LP system to our NE dragging down cold polar maritime air which could, just could, give snow for some - western half of the country favoured. Not long lasting probably but we in the White Christmas thread aren't picky how we get snow! Possibly similar to Xmas day 2004 for those who remember it.
Charts below.
So, as you see, lots of options still on the table.
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Out of laziness I'm just found to cross post WolfeEire's excellent post from the t120 thread here. Odds against but, well, you'd never know..
"................Decent GFS ensembles for festive cold weather from Christmas Day afternoon through the 27th. Wintry showers for counties in the northwest and west on Sunday evening into Monday. Largely dry with sunny spells elsewhere.
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Update on earlier post @Rebelbrowser and it's an upgrade for White Christmas potential for some areas at least. The risk of snow falling in any of the showers affecting western and northern counties on Christmas Day night into St Stephens Day is a little better again on the 18z GFS run.
Remember, for an official White Christmas snow needs to be recorded at one of Met Éireann's 25 official stations.
The latest 850hPas are enclosed below. Note that the snow percentile row has increased to 65%. The location picked is the same as earlier (south Sligo / north Roscommon).
It will be a close run thing to achieve a White Christmas as the colder uppers of -6c / -7c don't, on the latest GFS, push in across Donegal and southeast across northern half of the island at least until the final 5-6 hours of Christmas Day. With plenty of showers pushing through on a cold Polar Maritime airflow into west Munster, Connacht, and western and northern Ulster counties, my guess would be Claremorris and Markree Castle being best placed to record a snowflake. The stations at Belmullet, Mace Head, Finner and Malin Head would most likely see rain, hail or sleet due to their coastal or near coastal locations.
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