The 13th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread (Christmas 2022)

Rebelbrowser

Its that day again, 1 November, when with Halloween over us, thoughts turn now to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming and thus its time to re-open our White Christmas thread for 2022!

Last year was yet another bust. As I recorded in a post on Stephen's day 2021 "..Highest temp was 12c at Valentia, lowest was 4.6 at Casement and there was a lot rain, especially in Leinster, with Johnstown Castle recording 58.9mm. And no, there was no snow...See ye all from 1 November 2022 onwards, same Bat place, same Bat thread.... ( as I type this I'm reminded that we will share the run in to Christmas next year with a World Cup - mad)...".

And so, here we are, good as our word (still think a December WC is wierd too btw....).

This thread is going since 2010, the first is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many...) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow at one of our airports I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 18 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .

It would be great if you could actually get a situation where, say, 5 days out it looked like we had proper cold upper temperatures forecast to be over us for Xmas day and thus a decent chance of snow. We’ve never had that on this thread save for 2010 – and in fact in 2010 most of us had snow on the ground 5 days out and could see it wasn’t going to melt by the big day so there was no drama then either.

Anyway we are getting used to mild Christmases. But surely this year will be different? I mean it is still exceptionally mild all over Europe on 1 November and this is our thirteenth thread, so what could go wrong?

Right, enough intro, let's talk weather.

The CFS (a long range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

That shows a bit of a northerly outbreak on Christmas day, with some cool temps - not bad when looking for a White Christmas. But as that is a weather map for T1308 (i.e. 1308 hours away) there is still just about time for that to change! In fact the CFS does show some lying snow on the big day as per below...

The excellent The Weather Outlook are doing a blog as always at https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/christmas-weather-forecast which is worth following.

I will update this every few days and especially when there are any positive straws in the wind. I'm sure the usual (and more knowledgeable) posters will join in too. As we look at charts and maps in the run up to the big day we can talk about what we are looking for in same in terms of snow prospects. But in the meantime, if you are new and want to educate yourself, I would heartily recommend the "stickied" thread on this forum at https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057947753/parameters-required-for-guaranteed-snow-in-ireland#latest .

As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic. This one is of Tramore Beach, Co. Waterford, amazing photo - assume its from March 2018. T'would be great to see something like this this year...

An Ri rua

While a World Cup is indeed unusual at this time of the year, catarhh blocking up the airway(v)s is not. While it runs its course, all we can do is maintain a phlegmatic outlook. Granted itsnot normal.

Catarhh Airways, sore throats anyone?

I'll get my (white) coat...

Loughc

@Rebelbrowser this thread is always a treat each year!

Hope for a White Christmas but will settle for a dry one.

Billcarson

We are doing well to even get a bit of frost these days at Xmas never mind snow.

pauldry

Yes it will probably be a case of will the warmest ever Christmas Day be beaten? (There! Hopefully that's jinxed it)

Rebelbrowser

I suppose its been a week so just to update. CFS still the only game in town at this remove. Seems to have a funny set up with the atlantic blocked save for a big low pressure system trapped over us. Would be very wet in the lead up and a bit drier on the day with temps of 5c to 10c. Meh but not mild per se. See below

Below of course is what we are looking for - its Dublin from Christmas week 2010.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839623#Comment_119839623

Do you know I have never had cataargh/hay fever since I came offshore. Only just realsied that reading this thread. I think it is the almost constant wind as it prevents pollen etc settling? Thinking back I was always free of it on eg market days near the ocean. Fascinating

Rebelbrowser

Apologies for radio silence - stupid work getting in the way.....

Anyway, just a quick update. Just over 1000 hours to go so things are (quite literally, unfortunately) hotting up. The CFS shows as follows today:-

So not a hope of snow with those temps. Will do a proper update in the coming days....

Danno

Not cold, not overly mild either. Temps between 5c and 9c widely in a south to southeast airflow.

Rebelbrowser

Well, the long term charts continue to give little to cheer for those of us seeking a White Christmas - though I know on different threads there is discussion of changes in the upper atmosphere that might help to alter that. For now though the CFS is showing a mild, pleasant Xmas day as per below, with High Pressure in charge...

The GFS is still quite a bit away from assisting in terms of covering the Xmas period, let alone the other models. Met Eireann do give a monthly forecast on their website which presently goes out to 22 December. The most recent forecast for the final week of that period is a little more encouraging, stating:-

"...Week 4 (Friday 16 December to Thursday 22 December)

 Week four is fairly natural usually signifying a transition and low confidence. But with the predominant picture showing low pressure to the northeast and weak high pressure to the southwest a northerly airflow looks most likely. Temperatures will be close to average and a likely showery set up would bring slightly above average rainfall to Ulster and below average rainfall to Munster. Potential hazards in this period grow slightly with the northerly airflow likely bringing some winter mixed precipitation and frost potential at night...."

Just to give context, the last widespread White Christmas (falling snow on the big day), was in 2004. So what did the charts look like that day? Thanks to TheWeatherOutlook I have pasted them below. A polar airflow off the north north west was the catalyst for beefy snow showers for many that day. 18 years on, we are overdue something similar!

Very few photos online of the 2004 snow. I've attached one below from the Wicklow mountains, but it was snowing at sea level in much of the country (including my part of the world in Cork). There are a few videos on youtube, one of the Sligo snow in 2004, but won't link here. Til next time...

Rebelbrowser

Just to update this. Less than 4 weeks to go so we aren't far away from having some actual guidance. For now, we are still using the CFS - but it paints an interesting picture.....

Right now the CFS suggests a bit of a temperature spread on the big day - mild in the SW but colder (not cold) as you go NE. Dry everywhere so not a bad Xmas day at all. Probably frosts by night before and after for many too. See charts below.

Daytime temps

Upper temps....

Pressure chart

However, what is interesting is that by Xmas day there is a serious cold pool over central Europe trying to move to our neck of the woods. It gets as far as SE England by Xmas day but then gets diluted as it gets to our shores around the 27th. Very seasonal but no snow. Alas, if this long term forecast is generally correct, it is the kind of set up that could end up 300 miles further west and a very days earlier in which case Christmas snow would very much be on the cards. A straw in the wind, but an optimistic one.... See chart from 27 December below fyi.

Keep the faith folks, we are overdue.... We could yet be seeing some of this by the big day (Muckross House in Killarney shown..):-

Danno

As attention is well focussed on the pre-Christmas cold spell coming up, another look at the CMS (it's 7days now until the GFS brings us up to the big day)...

Pressure patterns suggest a receding high pressure from Ireland into the continent, but still a strong high.

Cool enough under that with 2c to 6c highs. Dry.

Rebelbrowser

Obviously, focus for all at the moment is on the cold spell just started. Its depth and duration are still up in the air which shows the difficulty in predicting the weather for the big day. As of tomorrow we will start to get model guidance for Xmas day from the GFS model. The others will come on stream later in the week. Right now the GFS goes out to Xmas Eve and suggests mild air and rain moving in from the west replacing cold weather at that time. Let's see what tomorrow, and our first proper look at Xmas day, shows. Its far from impossible either that the current cold lasts until the big day or, more likely than that scenario, that we get a reload of the current cold for around Xmas day. indeed MTC mentions that possibility in today's forecast.

Today's GFS for Xmas day is pasted below just for completeness....

Rebelbrowser

Well, it's here, the day we finally say goodbye to the CFS and start looking at the main weather models. Only the American Global Forecasting System (GFS) goes out to 25 December yet, so we will focus on it. And it is saying....that it will be a cold Christmas but no snow presently forecast. It shows the following 2 metre (what we experience) and upper atmosphere (where our weather generally comes from) temperatures at 7am on the big day...

Not bad, very seasonal anyway.

That said, MTC this morning is calling for a mild Xmas days with westerly winds so not all good news.

Keep the faith folks...

Rebelbrowser

Just to update this. As you'll gather from other threads, Christmas period weather is still a great unknown. MTC continues to be downcast on our chances for cold and snow. In Ireland, you will always be safer to assume that of course. But in general the models suggest that the current really cold spell (its -2 at midday at my location as I type this!) will last until Saturday / Sunday. Very little doubt that we will get an Atlantic influence from Sunday, but how much and for how long is still in doubt. Some models suggest we will enter a mobile phase of weather where will alternate between mild interludes and cold (not freezing like now) interludes every 36 hours or so. Thus in that scenario, it just depends where Xmas day falls in that continuum as to whether we get cold on the big day. Other models though hint that the "breakdown" this weekend could be quite short lived with a reload of real cold in the days leading up to Christmas.

GFS is still the only model going out to Xmas day. It shows the mobile, mild / cold interchange scenario, but shows a cold plunge coinciding with 25 December after a mild Christmas Eve. See below. We should get a much clearer picture in the coming days though....

WolfeEire

Perturbation 19 on the 06z GFS (3.33% chance of happening) 😁

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=17&ext=0

Rebelbrowser

12z models still rolling but good reason presently to think that Xmas day could be cold and snow is certainly not be ruled out at this point - which makes a change given usually things have gone tits up by now!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119992333#Comment_119992333

When I typed the above message yesterday there were still the key frames of the 12z GFS to roll out, but I "just knew" what they were going to say. So I posted that message. a possible white Christmas was around the corner and all was well with the world. Since then that GFS did not show what I wanted for xmas day when it concluded 10 minutes later and the 18z, 0z and 6z GFS runs that followed were even worse. Moreover the ECM has been similar. Basically all have backed away from the idea of the return of any proper cold after this Sunday's breakdown. There may be a cold interlude next Tues / Wed but nothing like the present cold. On the plus side, that brief interlude is slightly more likely to provide some snow than the current largely dry spell. Xmas day still not clear but there are some worrying signs of the mild wet muck we usually get.... 11 days to go though so still far from resolved.

So what caused this turn around in forecasts? Was it some unforeseen US storm with onward consequences for our weather? Was it an area of High Pressure over Europe not properly accounted for? Was it some global weather influence like La Nina? People will have their views. I know in my heart and soul though that its because I posted when I did. I couldn't just wait, oh no.... Never tempt the weather Gods.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119995604#Comment_119995604

The models are playing with you now...........you should have waited for the GFS 12z this evening to post again!!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119996533#Comment_119996533

Maybe reverse psychology is the way to go!

Rebelbrowser

At this stage it is increasingly clear that Xmas day will have temps somewhere between -6 and +16c, with blue skies or rain or hail or sleet or snow or graupel, with or without fog, and the possibility of force 1 to 12 winds.

Rebelbrowser

Just to give the actual state of play, the most recent model run, the 6z GFS (American model) shows Xmas day being very seasonal and pleasant with HP firmly over the whole island. Dry as a bone, afternoon temps of mid single figures with frost on both Xmas Eve and Xmas night.

The other models go out to midnight on Christmas Eve and, in general, the ECM (Euro model) shows a LP system to the SW bringing milder air and probably rain - but the trajectory of that LP suggests it might slide away to the south of the country and if it does that it will drag down colder air in its wake for Christmas night and onwards. Lastly the GEM (Canadian model) is our current favourite as it shows an LP system to our NE dragging down cold polar maritime air which could, just could, give snow for some - western half of the country favoured. Not long lasting probably but we in the White Christmas thread aren't picky how we get snow! Possibly similar to Xmas day 2004 for those who remember it.

Charts below.

So, as you see, lots of options still on the table.

Wine Goddess

Loving your analysis!

@Rebelbrowser well done great to see someone just focusing on the big day 😃

bazlers

Might be one or two surprises yet 🎄 🤔

jambofc

gfs this morning has a band of snow moving south over the country on christamas day............

one to follow over the next couple days runs

Rebelbrowser

Just to update, Christmas day weather still up in the air (though I suppose all weather is...). A few models show some decent cold from 25 to 27 December, others don't. Snow is still a possibility certainly (though as always in Ireland odds are against). Some great analysis by, especially, WolfeEIre and Gonzo, in the 120 hours plus thread.

Rebelbrowser

Will do a proper update tomorrow but odds are long on snow but short on it being cool to cold. Seasonal anyway.

Rebelbrowser

Out of laziness I'm just found to cross post WolfeEire's excellent post from the t120 thread here. Odds against but, well, you'd never know..

"................Decent GFS ensembles for festive cold weather from Christmas Day afternoon through the 27th. Wintry showers for counties in the northwest and west on Sunday evening into Monday. Largely dry with sunny spells elsewhere.

WolfeEire

Update on earlier post @Rebelbrowser and it's an upgrade for White Christmas potential for some areas at least. The risk of snow falling in any of the showers affecting western and northern counties on Christmas Day night into St Stephens Day is a little better again on the 18z GFS run.

Remember, for an official White Christmas snow needs to be recorded at one of Met Éireann's 25 official stations.

The latest 850hPas are enclosed below. Note that the snow percentile row has increased to 65%. The location picked is the same as earlier (south Sligo / north Roscommon).

It will be a close run thing to achieve a White Christmas as the colder uppers of -6c / -7c don't, on the latest GFS, push in across Donegal and southeast across northern half of the island at least until the final 5-6 hours of Christmas Day. With plenty of showers pushing through on a cold Polar Maritime airflow into west Munster, Connacht, and western and northern Ulster counties, my guess would be Claremorris and Markree Castle being best placed to record a snowflake. The stations at Belmullet, Mace Head, Finner and Malin Head would most likely see rain, hail or sleet due to their coastal or near coastal locations.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120023931#Comment_120023931

Snow percentile row from inland north Connacht has gone up to 84% at the end of Christmas Day

WolfeEire

There remains a strong chance of some showers falling as snow late Christmas Day into St Stephen's Day. The risk is greatest inland in west Munster, Connacht, north Leinster and in Ulster.

Rebelbrowser

12z GFS still giving hope for a (technical, at worst) White Christmas somewhere on our Isle. GFS snow charts are famously inaccurate and tend to predict snow far too often, but still with keeping an eye out here. See below.

Bottom line is we aren't getting a big freeze up this Christmas as had seemed possible but we are getting very shortlived cold for a few hours on Christmas night that could possibly give snow to a few. I'd take it, as that is ultimately what this thread is about...

Rebelbrowser

As above

Rebelbrowser

18z GFS similar for Christmas night..

Rebelbrowser

Still some small chance of a White Christmas somewhere on the island. GFS for 9pm on Christmas night is below, pink is sleet or snow. Interestingly has areas not just on the NW / W coast having a chance. Separately the upper temps from the ECM for 3am on Stephens Day show that there is some very cold, if shortlived, upper air around....

Rebelbrowser

MTC's forecast for tomorrow:-

"...CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) will bring more showers although there might be a few brighter spells too. Turning somewhat cooler from the northwest during the afternoon. Highs 8-10 C south and east, 7-9 C west and north. Some showers could turn sleety or wintry over higher parts of the north and west during the night (25th-26th), as lows drop to the 2-4 C range...".

So a very small chance yet for very select areas, eg. the NW, but unfortunately it's far more likely that we go yet another year without a White Christmas....

Let's see though.

pauldry

Therel be a flake at 1159pm in Donegal. Will that classify as a White Christmas?

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120031405#Comment_120031405

Desperate times call for...

Rebelbrowser

We had hail in Cork this morning I should say!

Pangea

Well surprisingly the hills have a covering of snow here in SW Donegal right now

Danno

Lough Fea (NI) reporting "Rain Snow" at 5pm.

Niall145

Could also be a decent dusting of snow on the Dublin/Wicklow mountains by tomorrow morning

Reversal

Heavy wet snow in Clondalkin! White Christmas then?

Awaaf

Heavy wet snowflakes for 90secs in Deansgrange

Rebelbrowser

Someone more qualified than me will have to call this but do we have a white Christmas in parts of the east coast going on some posts on this forum tonight?

Here in Cork my personal station got to 11.4c but temps have been falling since, now about 4c.

Interestingly, we all think temps in double figures on Xmas day are a new phenomenon yet someone posted a table with Xmas day temps in London since 1840 on another thread and amazing to see how often temps were 10c plus, even in the 19th century.

Anywho, Happy Christmas all!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120033710#Comment_120033710

That was me who posted the temps in London since 1840. In 1843 for example the Yr that a Christmas Carol was written and set in was the warmest Christmas of the 1840s ( Well at least in London ) max of 10c that Christmas day there.

sryanbruen

Here's a graph showing the daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Christmas Day at Dublin (Phoenix Park) since 1855. 1959 and 1960 are not available whilst 2022 so far is estimated from the WOW site. Also note before 1881, the Phoenix Park data is disregarded from official records due to pre-standard instrumentation used before then.

The mildest Christmas Day in terms of high max was 13.9C in 1865 and 1920. 2016 was 3rd highest at 13.7C. The highest Christmas min temp was 9.6C in 1898.

The coldest Christmas Day in terms of low max was 0.0C in 1870. The lowest of recent was 1995 with 1.2C. Meanwhile, the lowest Christmas min temp was -10.4C in 2010 followed by -7.5C in 1981.

The longest period of Christmas Days here without an air frost was 1926-1936, 11 years.

Rebelbrowser

According to the post pasted below, Casement recorded snow at 9pm in reports. Think that means it was officially a white Christmas?

Donegal

Posts: 188 ✭✭ 25-12-2022 8:45pm edited 10:00PM

8pm Casement recording sleet and Dublin airport recording rain.

Edit Casement recorded recent snow at 9pm.

Rebelbrowser

Separately, thanks Bill Carson and Sryanbruen. Amazingly consistent temps on Xmas day since 1840 really.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120033982#Comment_120033982

I'm surprised Christmas day max in 2010 wasn't sub zero.

prosaic

Late report, Snow fell in Sligo Town this morning. I woke at about 8am and roofs hads light dusting. What was visible of lower hills also had light covering. Rain started around 8:30 and it completely disappeared very quickly. I was busy so couldn't stop to take it in or photo. Sorry.