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The 13th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread (Christmas 2022)

  • 01-11-2022 12:17pm
    Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭

    Its that day again, 1 November, when with Halloween over us, thoughts turn now to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming and thus its time to re-open our White Christmas thread for 2022!

    Last year was yet another bust. As I recorded in a post on Stephen's day 2021 "..Highest temp was 12c at Valentia, lowest was 4.6 at Casement and there was a lot rain, especially in Leinster, with Johnstown Castle recording 58.9mm. And no, there was no snow...See ye all from 1 November 2022 onwards, same Bat place, same Bat thread.... ( as I type this I'm reminded that we will share the run in to Christmas next year with a World Cup - mad)...".

    And so, here we are, good as our word (still think a December WC is wierd too btw....).

    This thread is going since 2010, the first is still available at - but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many...) at . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

    As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

    The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow at one of our airports I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 18 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year ( say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

    A good article is at .

    It would be great if you could actually get a situation where, say, 5 days out it looked like we had proper cold upper temperatures forecast to be over us for Xmas day and thus a decent chance of snow. We’ve never had that on this thread save for 2010 – and in fact in 2010 most of us had snow on the ground 5 days out and could see it wasn’t going to melt by the big day so there was no drama then either.

    Anyway we are getting used to mild Christmases. But surely this year will be different? I mean it is still exceptionally mild all over Europe on 1 November and this is our thirteenth thread, so what could go wrong?

    Right, enough intro, let's talk weather.

    The CFS (a long range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

    That shows a bit of a northerly outbreak on Christmas day, with some cool temps - not bad when looking for a White Christmas. But as that is a weather map for T1308 (i.e. 1308 hours away) there is still just about time for that to change! In fact the CFS does show some lying snow on the big day as per below...

    The excellent The Weather Outlook are doing a blog as always at which is worth following.

    I will update this every few days and especially when there are any positive straws in the wind. I'm sure the usual (and more knowledgeable) posters will join in too. As we look at charts and maps in the run up to the big day we can talk about what we are looking for in same in terms of snow prospects. But in the meantime, if you are new and want to educate yourself, I would heartily recommend the "stickied" thread on this forum at .

    As always, to get in the mood, I have pasted below a seasonal pic. This one is of Tramore Beach, Co. Waterford, amazing photo - assume its from March 2018. T'would be great to see something like this this year...



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,392 ✭✭✭An Ri rua

    While a World Cup is indeed unusual at this time of the year, catarhh blocking up the airway(v)s is not. While it runs its course, all we can do is maintain a phlegmatic outlook. Granted itsnot normal.

    Catarhh Airways, sore throats anyone?

    I'll get my (white) coat...

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc

    @Rebelbrowser this thread is always a treat each year!

    Hope for a White Christmas but will settle for a dry one.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,334 ✭✭✭Billcarson

    We are doing well to even get a bit of frost these days at Xmas never mind snow.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Yes it will probably be a case of will the warmest ever Christmas Day be beaten? (There! Hopefully that's jinxed it)

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    I suppose its been a week so just to update. CFS still the only game in town at this remove. Seems to have a funny set up with the atlantic blocked save for a big low pressure system trapped over us. Would be very wet in the lead up and a bit drier on the day with temps of 5c to 10c. Meh but not mild per se. See below

    Below of course is what we are looking for - its Dublin from Christmas week 2010.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7

    Do you know I have never had cataargh/hay fever since I came offshore. Only just realsied that reading this thread. I think it is the almost constant wind as it prevents pollen etc settling? Thinking back I was always free of it on eg market days near the ocean. Fascinating

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno

    Not cold, not overly mild either. Temps between 5c and 9c widely in a south to southeast airflow.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    Obviously, focus for all at the moment is on the cold spell just started. Its depth and duration are still up in the air which shows the difficulty in predicting the weather for the big day. As of tomorrow we will start to get model guidance for Xmas day from the GFS model. The others will come on stream later in the week. Right now the GFS goes out to Xmas Eve and suggests mild air and rain moving in from the west replacing cold weather at that time. Let's see what tomorrow, and our first proper look at Xmas day, shows. Its far from impossible either that the current cold lasts until the big day or, more likely than that scenario, that we get a reload of the current cold for around Xmas day. indeed MTC mentions that possibility in today's forecast.

    Today's GFS for Xmas day is pasted below just for completeness....

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    Just to update this. As you'll gather from other threads, Christmas period weather is still a great unknown. MTC continues to be downcast on our chances for cold and snow. In Ireland, you will always be safer to assume that of course. But in general the models suggest that the current really cold spell (its -2 at midday at my location as I type this!) will last until Saturday / Sunday. Very little doubt that we will get an Atlantic influence from Sunday, but how much and for how long is still in doubt. Some models suggest we will enter a mobile phase of weather where will alternate between mild interludes and cold (not freezing like now) interludes every 36 hours or so. Thus in that scenario, it just depends where Xmas day falls in that continuum as to whether we get cold on the big day. Other models though hint that the "breakdown" this weekend could be quite short lived with a reload of real cold in the days leading up to Christmas.

    GFS is still the only model going out to Xmas day. It shows the mobile, mild / cold interchange scenario, but shows a cold plunge coinciding with 25 December after a mild Christmas Eve. See below. We should get a much clearer picture in the coming days though....

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    When I typed the above message yesterday there were still the key frames of the 12z GFS to roll out, but I "just knew" what they were going to say. So I posted that message. a possible white Christmas was around the corner and all was well with the world. Since then that GFS did not show what I wanted for xmas day when it concluded 10 minutes later and the 18z, 0z and 6z GFS runs that followed were even worse. Moreover the ECM has been similar. Basically all have backed away from the idea of the return of any proper cold after this Sunday's breakdown. There may be a cold interlude next Tues / Wed but nothing like the present cold. On the plus side, that brief interlude is slightly more likely to provide some snow than the current largely dry spell. Xmas day still not clear but there are some worrying signs of the mild wet muck we usually get.... 11 days to go though so still far from resolved.

    So what caused this turn around in forecasts? Was it some unforeseen US storm with onward consequences for our weather? Was it an area of High Pressure over Europe not properly accounted for? Was it some global weather influence like La Nina? People will have their views. I know in my heart and soul though that its because I posted when I did. I couldn't just wait, oh no.... Never tempt the weather Gods.

  • Registered Users Posts: 217 ✭✭almostthere12

    The models are playing with you should have waited for the GFS 12z this evening to post again!!

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

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  • Registered Users Posts: 533 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess

    Loving your analysis!

    @Rebelbrowser well done great to see someone just focusing on the big day 😃

  • Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭bazlers

    Might be one or two surprises yet 🎄 🤔

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    Just to update, Christmas day weather still up in the air (though I suppose all weather is...). A few models show some decent cold from 25 to 27 December, others don't. Snow is still a possibility certainly (though as always in Ireland odds are against). Some great analysis by, especially, WolfeEIre and Gonzo, in the 120 hours plus thread.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    Will do a proper update tomorrow but odds are long on snow but short on it being cool to cold. Seasonal anyway.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    Out of laziness I'm just found to cross post WolfeEire's excellent post from the t120 thread here. Odds against but, well, you'd never know..

    "................Decent GFS ensembles for festive cold weather from Christmas Day afternoon through the 27th. Wintry showers for counties in the northwest and west on Sunday evening into Monday. Largely dry with sunny spells elsewhere.

  • Registered Users Posts: 344 ✭✭WolfeEire

    Snow percentile row from inland north Connacht has gone up to 84% at the end of Christmas Day

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  • Registered Users Posts: 344 ✭✭WolfeEire

    There remains a strong chance of some showers falling as snow late Christmas Day into St Stephen's Day. The risk is greatest inland in west Munster, Connacht, north Leinster and in Ulster.