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Very windy and potentially stormy Weds 2-11-22
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01-11-2022 5:50am#1
Potential named storm on Weds bringing very strong or stormy winds up along Atlantic coastal counties from early Weds morning and very strong winds sweeping across the country from the S to SW and veering W along with heavy frontal squally rain , possibly the strongest winds in the afternoon which look set to become stormy up along Western and Northwestern counties with very strong winds sweeping across the Northern half of the country. Heavy rain in a short space of time in Western counties giving a flooding risk. Potential for isolated thunderstorms also behind the frontal rain in the unstable airmass more so along Atlantic counties but some possible inland also and along the Irish Sea. Severe and damaging gusts are possible along Atlantic counties and some severe gusts could occur for a time inland also bearing in mind that a lot of land is saturated at the moment and trees in leaf may become a hazard. Relatively quick moving system. Can expect winds gusting up to around 120 km/h along coasts with some higher gusts on exposed headlands, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland with the possibility of higher gusts of around 100km/h in exposed or more elevated ground. Should be mostly cleared of the country by late evening.
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Met Eireann obviously pouring over the charts and getting their forecasts ready, dufficult as said over on the charts thread as a split in the models but would have to side with the European hi - res models at this stage, although I dont know what to make of AROMES gust predictions, on to something or an outlier, next run crucial to see if it holds. If AROME verified could easily be Orange warnings for much of the country. By the way the ICON Hi Res and EU is stonker for the West, it is showing Red Warning Winds and very strong winds running accross the country.
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No doubt ICON can overdo it with gusts , I find it has improved a bit of late and definitely the GFS close to the off is a very good guide and usually quite accurate, but when you see AROME and ICON showing very high gusts inland then maybe something is up.
WRF showing it very strong but not as strong as the European models but coming more in line I think.
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AROME 12Z not as strong in the West later, showing very strong along the Southern coastal counties, still holding on to some very gusty weather especially during the frontal passage across the country in the morning and early afternoon in the East.
ICON is by far the strongest especially in the West in the afternoon and strangely hasn't deviated much from each run.
UKMO similar to AROME to a point but not showing the stronger winds in the NW, N later in the day as the ECM / ARPEGE shows.
Yes Met Eireann hasn't deviated from it's warnings as yet anyway . Will see what the next output looks like but either way looks like High end yellow at the very least for coastal counties, higher along the coasts , the frontal passage high end yellow maybe a few places getting gusts into the Orange category briefly but maybe not enough to warrant Orange wind warning status over a wide area. The combination of wind and driving rain will pose its own difficulties.
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ECM12Z keeping the strongest winds to the coasts and within high end Yellow, gusts up to 80 -90km/h overland. South, SE looks very strong along the coasts for a time as spookwoman said above, still time for changes.
ICON 15Z the outlier but amazing it hasn't deviated much over the last few runs. Have included below to compare later.
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ICON 18Z no climb down and UKMO now looking stronger, will see what ARPEGE looks like, rolling out atm. I think Met Eireann have upped the tone a bit too..... ARPEGE preliminary looking like ICON especially the stronger winds sweeping into the West in the afternoon...will put up the chart when it is finished it's run.
TOMORROW - Wednesday 2nd November
Very windy or stormy on Wednesday. During the morning, a band of heavy squally rain will sweep eastwards across the country with spot flooding. Southerly winds will be very strong and gusty especially near west and south coasts with possible severe and damaging gusts. Rain will clear eastern counties in the early afternoon with sunny spells and heavy or thundery showers of rain or hail following. Winds will become westerly with further severe and damaging gusts, especially in western parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highest temperatures of 10 to 14 degrees.
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ARPEGE 18Z much stronger along the SW,W, NW, N on this run and it has that stripe of strong winds forming from from Galway /Limerick towards parts of Roscommon into Longford and parts of Offaly which could all expect winds gusting around 100km/h if both ARPEGE and ICON are correct ?? ICON brings those higher gusts all the way across the country to the East in the early evening.
American models not developing the later batch of strong winds coming in from the West in the afternoon.
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Just to highlight that AROME is showing some very strong gusting winds across the country in the 18Z. It is predicting very heavy convective type squally showers giving huge downdrafts I reckon, would not take the current positioning of the stripes of wind as gospel but only an indication of potentially very strong gusts accompanied by very heavy rain in places. The charts below show the potential for heavy squally rain and showers.
Increasingly under a cold upper airmass tomorrow aiding instability for convection and some thunderstorms and hail a possibility also.
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