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Very windy and potentially stormy Weds 2-11-22

  • 01-11-2022 6:50am
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Potential named storm on Weds bringing very strong or stormy winds up along Atlantic coastal counties from early Weds morning and very strong winds sweeping across the country from the S to SW and veering W along with heavy frontal squally rain , possibly the strongest winds in the afternoon which look set to become stormy up along Western and Northwestern counties with very strong winds sweeping across the Northern half of the country. Heavy rain in a short space of time in Western counties giving a flooding risk. Potential for isolated thunderstorms also behind the frontal rain in the unstable airmass more so along Atlantic counties but some possible inland also and along the Irish Sea. Severe and damaging gusts are possible along Atlantic counties and some severe gusts could occur for a time inland also bearing in mind that a lot of land is saturated at the moment and trees in leaf may become a hazard. Relatively quick moving system. Can expect winds gusting up to around 120 km/h along coasts with some higher gusts on exposed headlands, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland with the possibility of higher gusts of around 100km/h in exposed or more elevated ground. Should be mostly cleared of the country by late evening.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Regional West Moderators Posts: 58,449 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gremlinertia

    Have been wondering if this would end up getting a thread, organising my week to be home out of it..

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭adocholiday

    Any chance of upgrades or downgrades in the next 24 hours or is this more or less locked in? Doesn't look too significant for the east coast anyway. I saw Met Eireann had over 100kmph peak gusts forecast for South Wicklow last night but that's been revised down to 90 now.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Possible wind gusts of 120kph in Sligo area tomorrow evening may cause power outtages and some downed trees. Usually 120kph is where this sort of stuff happens.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Met Eireann obviously pouring over the charts and getting their forecasts ready, dufficult as said over on the charts thread as a split in the models but would have to side with the European hi - res models at this stage, although I dont know what to make of AROMES gust predictions, on to something or an outlier, next run crucial to see if it holds. If AROME verified could easily be Orange warnings for much of the country. By the way the ICON Hi Res and EU is stonker for the West, it is showing Red Warning Winds and very strong winds running accross the country.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 199 ✭✭ascophyllum

    Does ICON always overestimate the gusts? The GFS has always been my top pick for wind - it ground truths very well against the observations from the met weather stations, e.g. if it predicts top gusts of 90 for west Connemara, Mace Head will often record exactly 90. Quite strange that it is so different to a lot of the European models at this time frame.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭adocholiday

    Not sure how relevant it is but I use when looking at forecasts and I generally ignore Icon and Meteoblue wind forecasts there because they're always overplayed in my experience. The other 3 are usually more aligned with reality.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    No doubt ICON can overdo it with gusts , I find it has improved a bit of late and definitely the GFS close to the off is a very good guide and usually quite accurate, but when you see AROME and ICON showing very high gusts inland then maybe something is up.

    WRF showing it very strong but not as strong as the European models but coming more in line I think.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    ECM 06Z rolling out ( limitted 3hr'ly frames ) and not as strong as ICON by far, very windy along the coasts up around 120Km/h and gusting 80- 90km/h overland with some higher gusts possible on exposed or higher ground, very wet with heavy driving rain in the frontal passage and possibly squally with thunderstorms, heavy convective blustery or squally showers following.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,072 ✭✭✭dashoonage

    Are we likely to see inland orange warnings anywhere?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Hooter23

    Everything coming in from the atlantic since October has been much more intense than usual....this wind tomorrow and especially the squally showers that come with it probably will be too...could be a very bad winter like back in the 80s/90s...where the bad weather that they forecasted they actually got and even much worse

  • Registered Users Posts: 199 ✭✭ascophyllum

    GFS 12z sticking to it's guns, barely gusting over 90kmph and all over by early afternoon, be interesting to see which model gets it right in the end

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭adocholiday

    Met Eireann also sticking with the 90kmph gusts for South Wicklow, hasn't really deviated from it since this morning

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    AROME 12Z not as strong in the West later, showing very strong along the Southern coastal counties, still holding on to some very gusty weather especially during the frontal passage across the country in the morning and early afternoon in the East.

    ICON is by far the strongest especially in the West in the afternoon and strangely hasn't deviated much from each run.

    UKMO similar to AROME to a point but not showing the stronger winds in the NW, N later in the day as the ECM / ARPEGE shows.

    Yes Met Eireann hasn't deviated from it's warnings as yet anyway . Will see what the next output looks like but either way looks like High end yellow at the very least for coastal counties, higher along the coasts , the frontal passage high end yellow maybe a few places getting gusts into the Orange category briefly but maybe not enough to warrant Orange wind warning status over a wide area. The combination of wind and driving rain will pose its own difficulties.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor

    I would think an orange is a certainty for favoured counties after the incessant rainfall over the last 3 weeks. Ground around Cork is very saturated and I'd say the rivers are maxed

  • Registered Users Posts: 32,636 ✭✭✭✭Graces7

    The met ie map is formidable. Truly.... awesome. And so utterly silent out here now. Grateful for the warning.

    It has been so.. erratic.. I was awake a lot last night and it was flat calm at 2.27, then at 2.28 a sudden high wind exploded.. High drama...

    Stay safe...

    West Mayo offshore.

  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭zell12


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,816 ✭✭✭Oscar Bravo

    Nothing to strong mentioned on the TAFs , Cork Airport showing gusts up to 50 knots from 9am to 11am in moderate rain, small chance of Thunderstorms also

    BECMG 0209/0211 23030G50KT TEMPO 0209/0211 3000 RA BKN005 SCT015CB 

    PROB30 TEMPO 0209/0211 +TSRA 

    BECMG 0211/0213 23023G40KT TEMPO 0214/0218 -SHRA SCT017CB 

    BECMG 0216/0218 24015G25KT 

  • Registered Users Posts: 516 ✭✭✭coillsaille

    The fact that it's mid-term and schools are closed could also be a factor in Met Eir deciding not to upgrade warnings.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,842 ✭✭✭spookwoman

    Think it's the first time I've ever seen my area of Waterford City have 105 / 110kph gusts show on arome.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor

    Looks like they'll run with what's already up a yellow. To be fair it's about right but will make for quite a nasty morning in parts. The rain although heavy looks to move through quite quickly. Perhaps an orange for coastal South and West was justified..

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,915 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly

    The leaves are mostly down now too which helps.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor

    The sea area forecast is interesting in that it mentions most coasts reaching storm force 10 at least for a while.

    It would be unusual for this system not to be named and an orange issued and coasts to see force 10...

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    ECM12Z keeping the strongest winds to the coasts and within high end Yellow, gusts up to 80 -90km/h overland. South, SE looks very strong along the coasts for a time as spookwoman said above, still time for changes.

    ICON 15Z the outlier but amazing it hasn't deviated much over the last few runs. Have included below to compare later.

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,480 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia

    Will put the trampoline into storm mode now as this looks to be more than the average yellow wind alert

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭adocholiday

    I see now on the hourly forecast that Met Eireann have kept the gusts around 90 but have extended the period of gusty weather by a couple of hours. Initially they had the strong gusts over with by 3pm but now it's 6 or 7

  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭Shorty69664

    Thanks for reminding me. I just ran out and did the same.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,696 ✭✭✭Storm 10

    What's the story on the large low for Saturday that was on the weather chart after the 6 news

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,046 ✭✭✭✭Rikand

    Flying into Dublin airport tomorrow evening at 9pm. Should hopefully miss the worst of it