November 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- Predict the coldest daily maximum at any of the regularly reporting locations (in "yesterday's weather" section of met.ie website), date and location.

(contest deadline 0300h Tuesday 1st, usual late penalties apply).

Normal ___ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

MTC _____ 7.8 _ 17.1 _ -3.5 _ 173 _ 079 _ 4.6 21st Ballyhaise

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___ 8.2 _ 17.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 100 _ 5.2 22nd Knock

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 7.9 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 95 _ 3.8 27th Knock

pauldry

pauldry ___ 9.9_ 17.5 _ -2_ 108 _ 95 _ 4.5c 28th Knock

200motels

200motels---------- 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.8 _ 106 _ 92 _ 3.9 28th Knock

sunflower3

Sunflower3___ 8.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 90 _ 6.0 30th Oak Park

John mac

JOhn mac ___ 7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 102 _ 4.1 knock

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 8.1 _ 17.8 _ -3.3 _ 140 _ 090 _ 5.6 28th Ballyhaise

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.9° ___ 17.0 ___ -3.5 ___ 100 ___ 95 ___ 5.5, 28th, Knock.

Bsal

Bsal ___ 7.6 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 103 _ 5.0_ 24th Mount Dillon

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 7.5__ 16.5__ -2.5 __ 115 __ 95 _ -2 _ 19th Mullingar

mcburns07

mcburns07 ___ 8.9 _ 17.1 _ 1.7 _ 150 _ 60 _ 5.2 29th Knock

Joe Public

Joe Public_____ 7.5 _ 16.8 _ -4.4 _ 149 _ 081 _ 3.8 19th Mullingar

mrskinner

Skinner_____8.0____17.3____-3.7____155____90____4.2 23rd Ballyhaise.

dacogawa

Dacogawa___ 8.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 160 _ 90 _ 4.4c 30th Knock

appledrop

Appledrop___8.2__17.2____-3.2____135__100___4.1 28th Knock

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____ 9.1 _ 18.1 _ -2.5 _ 140 _ 090 _ 4.3 30th Knock

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 8.2 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 101 _ 5.2 23rd Knock

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ____8.3___17.8___-3.6___157___82___5.3____ 16th Dunsany/ Grange

Sweet Talkin Romeo

Sweet Talkin Romeo_____ 8.9__16.8__2.3__103.1__85 __0.1 11th Mullingar

Danno

Danno _____ 7.1 _ 16.9 _ -5.7 _ 140 _ 095 _ 0.7 30th Mullingar

adam240610

Adam240610 _____ 8.0 __17.0_ -4.3 _ 166 _ 098 _ 1.1 28th mullimgar

Gonzo

Gonzo _____ 8.6 __16.6_ -2.6 _ 138 _ 092 _ 4.9 29th Knock

waterways

Oh sorry I'm late cause I'm on a small island at the moment and we enjoyed the weather. :)

waterways ___ 8.3_ 17.2 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 89 _ 4.5 Mount Dillon

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119819954#Comment_119819954

No worries, could you add a date to the bonus question? Thanks.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814577#Comment_119814577

Same question as above, could you add a date for the bonus? Thanks.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2022

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Low max

pauldry ___________9.9 _ 17.5 _ -2.0 _ 108 _ 095 __ 4.5 28th Knock

Jpmarn ___________9.1 _ 18.1 _ -2.5 _ 140 _ 090 __ 4.3 30th Knock

mcburns07 ________8.9 _ 17.1 __ 1.7 _ 150 _ 060 __ 5.2 29th Knock

Sweet Talkin Romeo _8.9 _ 16.8 __ 2.3 _ 103 _ 085 __ 0.1 11th Mullingar

Sunflower3 _______ 8.8 _ 17.9 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 6.0 30th Oak Park

Dacogawa ________ 8.6 _ 18.2 _ -3.5 _ 160 _ 090 __ 4.4 30th Knock

Gonzo ____ (-1) ___ 8.6 _ 16.6 _ -2.6 _ 138 _ 092 __ 4.9 29th Knock

Mr stonewall ______ 8.3 _ 17.8 _ -3.6 _ 157 _ 082 __ 5.3 16th Dunsany

waterways _ (-3) ___8.3 _ 17.2 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 089 __ 4.5 -- -- Mount Dillon

Artane2002 _______ 8.2 _ 17.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 5.2 22nd Knock

Tae laidir _________ 8.2 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 135 _ 101 __ 5.2 23rd Knock

Appledrop ________ 8.2 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 135 _ 100 __ 4.1 28th Knock

___ Con Sensus ___ 8.2 _ 17.1 _ -3.2 _ 135 _ 094 __ 4.5 28th

DOCARCH ________ 8.1 _ 17.8 _ -3.3 _ 140 _ 090 __ 5.6 28th Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ________ 8.0 _ 17.3 _ -3.7 _ 155 _ 090 __ 4.2 23rd Ballyhaise

200motels ________ 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.8 _ 106 _ 092 __ 3.9 28th Knock

Adam240610 ______8.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.3 _ 166 _ 098 __ 1.1 28th mullingar

John mac _________ 7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 102 __ 4.1 -- -- Knock

Kindred Spirit ______7.9 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 095 __ 5.5 28th Knock

sryanbruen ________7.9 _ 16.2 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 095 __ 3.8 27th Knock

M.T. Cranium ______ 7.8 _ 17.1 _ -3.5 _ 173 _ 079 __ 4.6 21st Ballyhaise

Bsal _____________ 7.6 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 103 __ 5.0 24th Mount Dillon

Joe Public _________7.5 _ 16.8 _ -4.4 _ 149 _ 081 __ 3.8 19th Mullingar

Dasa29 ___________7.5 _ 16.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 __-2.0 19th Mullingar

___ Normal _______ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.8 last third Knock (climatology)

Danno ___________ 7.1 _ 16.9 _ -5.7 _ 140 _ 095 __ 0.7 30th Mullingar

----------------------- - - -

For the low max bonus question, six points for the value, three for each of the others, that provides 1 or even 2 superbonus potential.

Dates chosen form this profile (two yet to come) ...

11, 16, 19,19 21 23,23 24 27 28,28,28,28,28,28 29,29 30,30,30,30

Locations as follows, with scoring implications:

Knock ___ 12 ___ Con Sensus and Normal score 3 if correct

Mullingar__ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2, Normal scores 1 if correct

Ballyhaise _ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 1, Normal scores 2 if correct

Mountdillon 2 ____ Con Sensus scores 1, Normal scores 1 if correct

Dunsany __ 1 ____ Con Sensus scores 0, Normal scores 1 if correct

Oak Park__ 1 ____ both score zero if correct

any other _ 0 ____ Forecasters score 2 or 1 if they select lowest of chosen locations or second lowest

any other _______ Normal scores 1 for Markree, Athenry, otherwise zero

To clarify, if location is not one of the seven chosen, forecasters can still score 2/3 if they do select the lowest of those seven.

==================

The group consensus for the month is very mild, rather wet, and cloudy.

Welcome to two new forecasters, mcburns07 and Sweet Talkin Romeo -- I notice that both have a MIN that is positive in sign, if that's because you assumed a negative value, let me know, I will score your MIN from your value with a minus sign if you wish (must clarify by 5th).

By the way, I am not saying you would be wrong, but one has a lower value for a low max (which is a good hedge maybe).

The two missing date predictions will be edited in or counted without further penalty if posted after edit time, 3rd-5th. After 5th, 0/3 for that portion.

Further predictions are welcome up to end of 3rd at which point late penalties would be consuming most of the potential score.

Late penalties start to increase from 1 per 4h to 1 per hour at 1500h 2nd (at which time total late penalty is 9)

waterways

waterways ___ 4.5 19th Mount Dillon

pauldry

Looks incredibly wet on the latest guidance. Didn't know whether to go very wet or slightly wet. Currently the high rainfall looks wiser.

Sweet Talkin Romeo

@M.T. Cranium

Welcome to two new forecasters, mcburns07 and Sweet Talkin Romeo -- I notice that both have a MIN that is positive in sign, if that's because you assumed a negative value, let me know, I will score your MIN from your value with a minus sign if you wish (must clarify by 5th).

yep, all me scores/guesses are for positive values

ta,

STR

John mac

oops sorry ,, put me down for 25th .

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for the updates, I am too late to edit my table but will remember that your dates are here. This is the revised list of dates chosen for the low maximum value ...

11, 16, 19,19,19 21 22 23,23 24 25 27 28,28,28,28,28,28 29,29 30,30,30,30

Consensus scores 3 for 28th only, 2 for 27th, 29th or 30th, 1 for any date mentioned 11th to 25th, and zero for any date not mentioned

Normal scores 1 for 1st-10th, 2 for 11th-20th and 3 for 21st-30th.

Your score will be determined from best possible division of the guesses into 3/3, 2/3 and 1/3 on the basis of similar error. With 24 forecasts, this will mean finding groups of eight that are separated by error magntiudes. It may not be a perfect split, for example if 28th is correct, there would be 9 guesses 27th-29th, and 9 23rd-26th plus 30th. Anyway, if the actual date is not one chosen by us that won't change the concept, any outcome before the 20th will mean that 11th to 23rd will score best.

Tae laidir

Athenry min 0.9 yesterday.

pauldry

Probably will hold for a week at least. Mild nights coming this week with rain.

M.T. Cranium

MAX before today was 14.4, for reference. IMT is 8.2 through 4th.

DOCARCH

High of 14.7c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

pauldry

Met Eireann has 16c forecast for Thursday so a new mark is likely then.

M.T. Cranium

Better late than never first week summary ...

IMT was on 9.3 C which is 0.9 above normal for the period.

MAX 14.7, MIN 0.9

PRC 177% of normal

SUN 98.5% (591/600)

Have not been tracking low max yet.

DOCARCH

Max of 17.1c at Shannon AP yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT had soared to 9.94 C by 10th, today might push it to 10.3 and tomorrow 10.6. It won't likely get much higher than that, will it ever get back down as far as highest IMT forecast 9.9 (Pauldry)? Maybe, but my bonus question is looking a bit sketchy at this point. Our highest guess for low max was 6.0 from Sunflower3, 5.6 from DOCARCH and 5.5 Kindred Spirit.

pauldry

Lowest I can see for Knock is 8.8c on November 4th. I'm sure this will be beaten. Won't it? The old min temperature also looks a bit dodgy unless current forecast changes as it could.

appledrop

17.5 is our new Max at Newport yesterday.

Jpmarn

Max 17.6°C at Finner Camp on the 13th according to Met.ie Yesterday’s weather page.

Joe Public

Not that it counts here but we got the warmest Nov night on record last Friday night, 15.5C at Shannon.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/1111/1335623-weather/

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 10.6, thanks to a very mild second week which averaged 12.0 C, which was 4.3 above normal.

MAX 17.6, MIN 0.9

PRC 150% of normal, the second week fairly average (122%, of which Valentia contributed about half the total excess).

SUN now at 91% with the second week rather cloudy at 84%.

Low max so far 8.8 on 4th (Knock).

pauldry

Nought can be seen in one or two spots today.

pauldry

New min max in Knock 8.6c yesterday.

Fog there today means another min max likely. This is probably the week for it as the end of November looks somewhat milder

DOCARCH

Max of 6.8c yesterday at Markree Castle.

Min of -0.9c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

M.T. Cranium

Knock at 7.3 leads for location among those chosen by forecasters (this determines location points only). Markree scores 1 for Normal but was not chosen by any forecaster.

This may become irrelevant if a selected location goes lower in either case.

pauldry

Markree is 1c at 11pm today. Very foggy in Sligo today.

It was 2c at midnight. So will be at least that.

Danno

Ballyhaise low max today 17th Nov.

+3.8c