October 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

The usual five questions plus a bonus ...

1. IMT (1981-2010 average 10.1)
2. MAX (at any regular reporting site)
3. MIN (at any regular reporting site)
4. PRC (% of normal)
5. SUN (% of normal)
6. Maximum wind gust (knots) location and date not required

Deadline 0300h Sat 1st Oct, with late penalties thereafter. Good luck!

pauldry

Pauldry_______________ 11.5_ 21.5 _ -5.5 _ 125_ 105___ 65

A theme of 5s for October!!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______________ 11.2_ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 90_ 90___ 58

Artane2002

Artane2002_______________ 11.3_ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 90_ 85___ 60

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______________ 10.3_ 20.4_ -3.0 _ 105_ 92___ 56

Gonzo

Gonzo _______________ 10.9_ 19.7 _ -2.6 _ 85_ 93___ 63

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______________ 10.9_ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 125_ 100___ 48

mrskinner

Skinner_____10.2___20.2___-3.2___115___95___55

dasa29

Dasa29_____10.5___20.0___-3.0___120___100___55

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______________ 10.4_ 20.7 _ -1.8 _ 93_ 105__ 48

waterways

waterways _________ 10.7 _ 19.3 _ -3.7 _ 137 _ 97 _____ 61.0

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ____________ 11.2 _ 21.9 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 67 knots

NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 58 knots

appledrop

Appledrop______11.0__20.0___-3.1__110____90____66 knots

appledrop

M.T that's 66 knots, seems to be spilt over two lines, maybe thats a bad omen and I shouldn't have picked it!

mr.stonewall

Mr.stonewall___10.5___19.1____-2.2___124___93___59kts

Danno

Danno _______________ 10.4_ 20.6 _ -4.3 _ 135_ 60___ 48

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________________ 10.8 _ 18.8 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 101 __ 56 knots

dacogawa

Dacogawa_______ 10.9 ___ 19.8___-2.8 ___ 155 ____ 95 ____62 knots

Bsal

Bsal _______________ 10.7_ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 80_ 96___ 57

John mac

john mac______________ 11.0_ 21.1 _ -4.5 _ 125_ 95___ 67

adam240610

Late sorry

Adam240610___11.0_19.1_-3.1 _ 125 _ 100 __ 51 knots

Joe Public

Joe Public_______ 10.3_ 19.3 _ -4.3 _ 101_ 99___ 79

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2022

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust

Pauldry _________________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -5.5 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 65

Artane2002_______________11.3 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 60

M.T. Cranium _____________11.2 _ 21.9 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 67

sryanbruen ______________ 11.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 58

john mac ________________ 11.0 _ 21.1 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 67

Appledrop _______________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 66

Adam240610 ______ (-1) __11.0 _ 19.1 _ -3.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 51

Dacogawa _______________ 10.9 _ 19.8 _ -2.8 _ 155 _ 095 ____ 62

Gonzo __________________ 10.9 _ 19.7 _ -2.6 _ 085 _ 093 ____ 63

Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 48

___ Con Sensus ___________10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 096 ____ 59

Tae laidir ________________ 10.8 _ 18.8 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 101 ____ 56

waterways _______________10.7 _ 19.3 _ -3.7 _ 137 _ 097 ____ 61

Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 080 _ 096 ____ 57

Dasa29 _________________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 100 ____ 55

Mr.stonewall ______________10.5 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 124 _ 093 ____ 59

DOCARCH _______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -1.8 _ 093 _ 105 ____ 48

Danno __________________ 10.4 _ 20.6 _ -4.3 _ 135 _ 060 ____ 48

Sunflower3_______________10.3 _ 20.4 _ -3.0 _ 105 _ 092 ____ 56

Joe Public _______ (-3) ____ 10.3 _ 19.3 _ -4.3 _ 101 _ 099 ____ 79

MrSkinner ______________10.2 _ 20.2 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 55

___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 58

kindredspirit

Ooops! Totally forgot the competition. :( I've been very ill but still that's no excuse. :(

M.T. Cranium

Best wishes from all of us for a full recovery then.

appledrop

Get well soon kindredspirit, I'm sure it will be still worth it to post your predictions.

M.T. Cranium

In purely strategic terms, KS was running around 5th and did reasonably well in September which I have not updated yet for the annual contest, currently the two low scores are 48 and 55, so entering with a late penalty would only be worthwhile if you could break 55 with the late penalty, otherwise the total will include the 55 and drop just the 48 at end of year. Also it keeps KS in the hunt for top score in total. Need to enter soon or the late penalty starts accelerating, not much point after midnight.

appledrop

It got to 19.5 yesterday at Shannon Airport.

Very mild aswell this morning.

M.T. Cranium

Also we opened the max gust account with 45 knots.

waterways

Max gust 47 knots yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 13.0, 1.5 above normal.

MAX 19.5

MIN 3.1 C (8th, several locations)

PRC 138% of normal

SUN 107% of normal (640/600)

Max gust so far is 47 knots

DOCARCH

I see min. at Athenry yesterday was 2.8c. Low for the month so far (....I think?).

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119729804#Comment_119729804

Surprised Oakpark didn't get lower as I got down to 1.4c here yesterday morning. A 3.6c last night though thanks to high cloud thickening.

DOCARCH

Low of 1.3c at Dublin AP and Markree yesterday.

pauldry

Mullingar 0.8c

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 11.6, second week average 10.2 which is 0.5 below normal.

MAX 19.5

MIN 0.8

PRC now 104% as second week rather dry at 69% of normal.

SUN now 105% with second week average 103% (620/600).

Max gust remains 47 knots, likely to be exceeded on Sunday night.

DOCARCH

Sherkin had a gust of 53 knots yesterday. May well have been stronger gusts since midnight?

M.T. Cranium

Roches Point appeared to peak a little higher after midnight, 54 knots possibly.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119757815#Comment_119757815

Yes, 54 knots confirmed for Roches Point.

appledrop

We are into minus for Min, -0.3 recorded on 18th at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 11.5, third week average 11.3 which was 1.2 above normal.

MAX 19.5

MIN -0.3

PRC up to 132% with the second week quite wet at 188% of normal.

SUN is on 100% now with the third week average 90%.

Max gust so far 54 knots.

pauldry

Provisional gust of 61 knots in Mace Hd at 7am but only provisional yet.

M.T. Cranium

IMT had reached 11.7 after 25th and could be adding 0.1 per day for a while, might end up close to 12.0. In any case our highest IMT forecast is 11.5 (Pauldry) so there could be a slight boost in the works there. For MIN there will definitely need to be a boost if we don't exceed the -0.3 mark set, as our highest forecast is -1.8 (DOCARCH). Dacogawa may be about to hammer us on PRC with 155%, a much closer call than any other I would say. However the hammer may not fall because we may soar well beyond that (my estimate is that we would reach a guaranteed 155% by Friday and possibly keep adding on, some model forecasts have a very wet 31st other times it waits for 1-2 Nov to begin that deluge).

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for October 2022

As most of the forecast elements have been more or less settled, I am posting this preliminary scoring report which will be updated as needed. There is still some chance of a higher wind gust than 61 knots, but I think all other elements are outside the forecast range in most cases. At this point we'll keep the scoring table in the forecast table order. That will be edited later.

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN __Max gust ____ TOTALS

Estimated values _________11.9 _19.5 _-0.3 _175 _100 __ 61

Pauldry _________________ 23*_ 00 _ 01*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 52

Artane2002_______________22*_ 15 _ 18*_ 02*_ 07 ____ 10 ______ 74

M.T. Cranium _____________21*_ 00 _ 15*_ 07*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 57

sryanbruen ______________ 21*_ 17 _ 08*_ 02*_ 08 ____ 09 ______ 65

john mac ________________19*_ 04 _ 02*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 06 ______ 52

Appledrop _______________ 19*_ 15 _ 08*_ 07*_ 08 ____ 07 ______ 64

Adam240610 ______ (-1) __ 19*_ 16 _ 08*_ 12*_ 10 ____ 04 _ 69-1= 68

Dacogawa _______________ 16*_ 17 _ 12*_ 15*_ 09 ____ 10 ______ 79

Gonzo __________________ 16*_ 18 _ 13*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 66

Jpmarn _________________ 16*_ 20 _ 15*_ 12*_ 10 ____ 02 ______ 75

___ Con Sensus ___________16*_ 16 _ 12*_ 07*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 69

Tae laidir ________________ 14 _ 13 _ 12*_ 13*_ 10 ____ 08 ______ 70

waterways _______________13 _ 18 _ 04*_ 14*_ 09 ____ 10 ______ 68

Bsal ____________________13 _ 10 _ 18*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 60

Dasa29 _________________ 11 _ 15 _ 10*_ 09*_ 10 ____ 07 ______ 62

Mr.stonewall _____________ 11 _ 16 _ 16*_ 10*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 71

DOCARCH _______________ 10 _ 08 _ 19*_ 02*_ 09 ____ 02 ______ 50

Danno __________________ 10 _ 09 _ 03*_ 13*_ 02 ____ 02 ______ 39

Sunflower3_______________09 _ 09 _ 10*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 08 ______ 49

Joe Public _______ (-3) ____ 09 _ 18 _ 03*_ 04*_ 10 ____ 01 _ 45-3=42

MrSkinner ______________08 _ 13 _ 05*_ 08*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 50

___ NormaL _____________ 07 _ 10 _ 04*_ 03*_ 10 ____ 09 ______ 43

*IMT subject to minimum progression but the bottom half of raw scores were higher than the progression values.

*MIN scored by minimum progression

*PRC scored by minimum progression, would be adjusted for "hammer" if outcome below 162% (will drop most scores slightly)

Any changes to actual values will result in an edited version. Final version likely to appear Nov 2nd.

=======================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust

Pauldry _________________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -5.5 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 65

Artane2002_______________11.3 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 60

M.T. Cranium _____________11.2 _ 21.9 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 67

sryanbruen ______________ 11.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 58

john mac ________________ 11.0 _ 21.1 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 67

Appledrop _______________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 66

Adam240610 ______ (-1) __11.0 _ 19.1 _ -3.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 51

Dacogawa _______________ 10.9 _ 19.8 _ -2.8 _ 155 _ 095 ____ 62

Gonzo __________________ 10.9 _ 19.7 _ -2.6 _ 085 _ 093 ____ 63

Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 48

___ Con Sensus ___________10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 096 ____ 59

Tae laidir ________________ 10.8 _ 18.8 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 101 ____ 56

waterways _______________10.7 _ 19.3 _ -3.7 _ 137 _ 097 ____ 61

Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 080 _ 096 ____ 57

Dasa29 _________________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 100 ____ 55

Mr.stonewall ______________10.5 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 124 _ 093 ____ 59

DOCARCH _______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -1.8 _ 093 _ 105 ____ 48

Danno __________________ 10.4 _ 20.6 _ -4.3 _ 135 _ 060 ____ 48

Sunflower3_______________10.3 _ 20.4 _ -3.0 _ 105 _ 092 ____ 56

Joe Public _______ (-3) ____ 10.3 _ 19.3 _ -4.3 _ 101 _ 099 ____ 79

MrSkinner ______________10.2 _ 20.2 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 55

___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 58

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT now on 11.9, likely to finish there or 12.0. (scoring table would be adjusted for raw scores if not 11.9) The fourth week average of 13.1 was 3.7 above normal.

MAX remains 19.5 and MIN remains -0.3

PRC at 149% with the fourth week at 196% of normal. This may manage to finish in the dacogawa hammer range which is 148-162 mm, it would take about 30-40 mm on average to move it higher (today to 31st). There may not be much more than 25 mm. The hammer will reduce all other scores slightly, possibly by 2-4 points in this case.

SUN now on 104% thanks to a reasonably bright week at 115.5% (693/600). I had scored this from 95% which will require the total for these last three days would stay under 35% which is about an hour a day, so it may end up closer to 100% (with almost everyone forecasting sun in multiples of 5%, the real scoring boundary is 97 to 98 per cent). And then SUN is the one element I always have to check against the MS as it's not directly checkable from end of month data unless I do a lot of data work.

Max gust 61 knots on 26th.

M.T. Cranium

IMT has come in at 12.0 C

My rough calculation of PRC is very close to 155% so even if I am a few percent off, the hammer (of Dacogawa) has fallen. Will confirm exact details from MS tomorrow. SUN did a bit better than I was expecting 29th-31st and I think it has held serve near 100%.

The main scoring changes might be with PRC but will reveal all tomorrow.

sryanbruen

Using the selection of stations used for the forecast contests, October 2022 was likely the wettest month for Ireland since February 2020 and the wettest since the early 2000s (probably 2000 or 2002).

M.T. Cranium

The MS confirms our numbers generally speaking, here's the actual values.

IMT 12.0 MAX 19.5 MIN -0.3 PRC 152 SUN 102 ... max gust 61

The Dacogawa PRC hammer has fallen upon us, the silver lining is that at 152% we all gain a chance to improve our base by 1 point before losing half the boost.

I will post the adjusted scores for November fairly soon, the annual updates will follow along before the end of the day (I hope).

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for October 2022

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN __Max gust ____ TOTALS

Confirmed values _________12.0 _19.5 _-0.3 _152 _102 __ 61

Dacogawa _______________ 16*_ 17 _ 12*_ 15*_ 09 ____ 10 ______ 79

Artane2002_______________22*_ 15 _ 18*_ 01*_ 07 ____ 10 ______ 73

Jpmarn _________________ 16*_ 20 _ 15*_ 09*_ 10 ____ 02 ______ 72

Tae laidir ________________ 13 _ 13 _ 12*_ 11*_ 10 ____ 08 ______ 67

Mr.stonewall _____________ 10 _ 16 _ 16*_ 08*_ 08 ____ 09 ______ 67

Gonzo __________________ 16*_ 18 _ 13*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 66

___ Con Sensus ___________16*_ 16 _ 12*_ 04*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 66

Adam240610 ______ (-1) __ 19*_ 16 _ 08*_ 09*_ 10 ____ 04 _ 66-1= 65

waterways _______________12 _ 18 _ 04*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 10 ______ 65

sryanbruen ______________ 21*_ 17 _ 08*_ 01*_ 08 ____ 09 ______ 64

Appledrop _______________ 19*_ 15 _ 08*_ 04*_ 08 ____ 07 ______ 61

Bsal ____________________12 _ 10 _ 18*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 09 ______ 59

Dasa29 _________________ 10 _ 15 _ 10*_ 06*_ 10 ____ 07 ______ 58

M.T. Cranium _____________21*_ 00 _ 15*_ 04*_ 08 ____ 06 ______ 54

john mac ________________19*_ 04 _ 02*_ 09*_ 09 ____ 06 ______ 49

Pauldry _________________ 23*_ 00 _ 01*_ 09*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 49

DOCARCH _______________ 09 _ 08 _ 19*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 02 ______ 48

MrSkinner ______________07 _ 13 _ 05*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 07 ______ 47

Sunflower3_______________08 _ 09 _ 10*_ 03*_ 08 ____ 08 ______ 46

___ NormaL _____________ 06 _ 10 _ 04*_ 02*_ 10 ____ 09 ______ 41

Joe Public _______ (-3) ____ 08 _ 18 _ 03*_ 02*_ 09 ____ 01 _ 41-3=38

Danno __________________ 09 _ 09 _ 03*_ 11*_ 02 ____ 02 ______ 36

*IMT subject to minimum progression but the bottom half of raw scores were higher than the progression values.

*MIN scored by minimum progression

*PRC scored by minimum progression, adjusted for "hammer" obtained by dacogawa (boosts cut in half)

ANNUAL UPDATE to follow. Congrats to Dacogawa (79), Artane2002 (73) and JPmarn (72).

=======================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust

Pauldry _________________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -5.5 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 65

Artane2002_______________11.3 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 60

M.T. Cranium _____________11.2 _ 21.9 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 67

sryanbruen ______________ 11.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 58

john mac ________________ 11.0 _ 21.1 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 67

Appledrop _______________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 66

Adam240610 ______ (-1) __ 11.0 _ 19.1 _ -3.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 51

Dacogawa _______________ 10.9 _ 19.8 _ -2.8 _ 155 _ 095 ____ 62

Gonzo __________________ 10.9 _ 19.7 _ -2.6 _ 085 _ 093 ____ 63

Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 48

___ Con Sensus ___________10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 096 ____ 59

Tae laidir ________________ 10.8 _ 18.8 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 101 ____ 56

waterways _______________10.7 _ 19.3 _ -3.7 _ 137 _ 097 ____ 61

Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 18.5 _ -2.0 _ 080 _ 096 ____ 57

Dasa29 _________________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 100 ____ 55

Mr.stonewall ______________10.5 _ 19.1 _ -2.2 _ 124 _ 093 ____ 59

DOCARCH _______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -1.8 _ 093 _ 105 ____ 48

Danno __________________ 10.4 _ 20.6 _ -4.3 _ 135 _ 060 ____ 48

Sunflower3_______________10.3 _ 20.4 _ -3.0 _ 105 _ 092 ____ 56

Joe Public _______ (-3) ____ 10.3 _ 19.3 _ -4.3 _ 101 _ 099 ____ 79

MrSkinner ______________10.2 _ 20.2 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 55

___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 58

M.T. Cranium

-- <<< Annual Scoring Summary January to October 2022 >>> --

The table order continues now with the best 8/10 7/9 rankings. Ranks for total score continue to be shown and compared to previous month. (contest is eventually decided on best 10/12).

Appledrop continues to lead the annual contests, holding off Con Sensus and a number of forecasters who have somewhat narrowed the gap. It's looking like a scramble to the finish line but Appledrop has two lowest scores of 55, 57 to substitute for any lower scores that might emerge, and Con Sensus has 56, 61 as low scores for replacement. Dacogawa has made a fairly substantial move up into the chase pack with the high score in October. Good luck everybody.

Total score _______________________________________________________ Best 8/10 (table based)

Rank (prev) _FORECASTER ___Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct__TOTAL //_ (rank) (prev)

_01 _ (01) _Appledrop _______67 _76 _55 _ 68 _79 _ 89 _ 57 _65 _68 _61 __ 685 __ 573 (1) _ (1)

01.5_(01.7) __ Con Sensus ___80 _70 _56 _ 77 _61 _ 70 _ 64 _64 _65 _66 __ 673 __ 556 (1.9)_(1.9)

_07 _(t07) _Mr stonewall _____67 _70 _57 _ 78 _68 _ 73 _ 43 _73 _39 _67 __ 635 __ 553 (2) _ (3)

_04 _ (05) _ Tae laidir _______70 _77 _52 _ 66 _76 _ 64 _ 64 _68 _50 _67 __ 654 __ 552 (3) _ (t4)

_03 _ (03) _sryanbruen ______65 _58 _49 _ 67 _65 _ 67 _ 83 _65 _72 _64 __ 655 __ 548 (4) _ (6)

_02 _ (02) _ Bsal ___________61 _67 _69 _ 68 _73 _ 71 _ 68 _55 _69 _59 __ 660 __ 546 (5) _ (t4)

_05 _ (09) _dacogawa _______78 _63 _58 _ 50 _56 _ 77 _ 48 _77 _57 _79 __ 643 __ 545 (6) _ (12)

_14t _(04) _Kindred Spirit ____80 _66 _48 _ 69 _55 _ 63 _ 63 _78 _66 _--- __ 588 __ 540 (7) _ (2)

_06 _(t07) _Artane2002 _____ 59 _70 _55 _ 75 _60 _ 51 _ 68 _72 _58 _73 __ 641 __ 535 (t8) _(13)

_16 _ (19) _Gonzo __________43 _49 _67 _ 78 _65 _ 63 _ 70 _--- _77 _66 __ 578 __ 535 (t8) _ (t7)

_17 _ (16) _sunflower3 ______77 _60 _61 _ 68 _66 _ 59 _ --- _ 72 _64 _46 __ 573 __ 527 (10) _ (9)

_08 _ (06) _MrSkinner ______ 63 _63 _67 _ 82 _66 _ 70 _ 55 _56 _52 _47 __ 621 __ 522 (11) _ (t10)

_10 _ (10) _Pauldry _________78 _77 _57 _ 55 _64 _ 75 _ 61 _50 _42 _49 __ 608 __ 517 (t12) _(t10)

_11 _ (11) _DOCARCH ______ 78 _50 _47 _ 77 _61 _ 78 _ 42 _55 _70 _48 __ 606 __ 517 (t12) _ (t7)

_12 _ (13) _M.T. Cranium ____ 65 _45 _39 _ 81 _46 _ 79 _ 45 _71 _72 _54 __ 597 __ 513 (t14) _(14)

_09 _ (12) _Dasa29 _________72 _50 _50 _ 65 _65 _ 63 _ 47 _64 _76 _58 __ 610 __ 513 (t14) _(15)

_14t _(17) _Jpmarn _________54 _55 _55 _ 76 _44 _ 54 _ 71 _76 _31 _72 __ 588 __ 513 (t14) _(16)

_13 _ (15) _waterways ______ 65_ 45 _47 _ 69 _54 _ 56 _ 51 _73 _69 _65 __ 594 __ 502 (17) _ (18)

_19 _ (18) _john mac________82 _53 _69 _ 54 _54 _ 73 _ 29 _46 _54 _49 __ 563 __ 488 (18)_ (17)

_20 _ (20) _adam240610 ____ 54 _26 _54 _ 77 _47 _ 76 _ 55 _45 _59 _65 __ 558 __ 487 (19) _ (20)

_18 _ (14) _Joe Public _______50 _57 _53 _ 66 _53 _ 57 _ 71 _58 _67 _38 __ 570 __ 482 (20) _ (19)

20.3_ (14.0)__ NormaL _____ 60 _57 _54 _ 68 _55 _ 77 _ 38 _37 _60 _41 __ 547 __472 (20.8)_(18.8)

_21 _ (21) _Danno _________ 30 _19 _64 _ 81 _57 _ 46 _ 80 _53 _52 _36 __ 518*__ 469*(21) _(21)

_22 _ (22) _200motels ______ 57 _49 _---_ 74 _--- _ --- _ 76 _45 _70 _ --- _ 371

_23 _ (23) _esposito ________52 _--- _--- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _58 _--- _ --- _ 110

_24 _ (24) _Gaoth laidir _____--- _--- _70 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _36 _--- _ --- _ 106

_25 _ (25) _Tazio __________ --- _--- _--- _ --- _--- _ --- _ 48 _--- _57 _ --- _ 105

_26 _ (26) _Bazlers ________ 56 _--- _--- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _--- _--- _ --- __ 56

==================================================

* Danno would have 542 total points and 493 for best 8/10 counting the alternate Aug score, and rest of field generally 2 pts lower.

Updated category scoring January to October 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________250 _200 _200 _150 _100 __100+___1000 _1000

Appledrop _____________ 205 _121 _ 119*_ 92_ 69 __ 70*_____ 686 _ 685

___ Consensus _________ 211_ 129*_ 109 _ 79_ 72 __ 73 _____ 673 _ 673

Bsal __________________198 _ 128* _122 _70 _ 66 __ 76 _____ 660 _ 660

sryanbruen ____________202 _ 148 __88 _ 77 _ 76 __ 64 _____ 655 _ 655

Tae laidir ______________207 _111 _ 104 _ 90 _ 72 __ 70* _____ 654 _ 654

Dacogawa _____________215 _116 _ 114 _ 66 _ 66 __ 66 _____ 643 _ 643

Artane2002 ___________ 214 _ 110 __109 _ 70 _ 65 __ 73 _____641 _ 641

Mr Stonewall ___________185 _108 _ 126 _ 82 _ 70 __ 64 _____ 635 _ 635

MrSkinner _____________200 __ 97 __ 86 _ 94 _ 76 __68 _____ 621 _ 621

Dasa29 _______________186 _ 122 __ 92 _ 77 _ 69 __ 67 _____ 613 _ 610

Pauldry _______________209 _ 107 __ 94  _ 59 _ 71 __ 69 _____ 609 _ 608

DOCARCH _____________187 _ 120 _ 106 _ 70 _ 64 __ 59 _____ 606 _ 606

M.T. Cranium __________ 201 _ 84 __ 101 _ 71 _ 70 __ 70* _____597 _ 597

waterways _____________198 _118 __ 73 _ 78 _ 79 __48 _____ 594 _ 594

Kindred Spirit __________188 _108 __ 87 _ 86 _ 60 __ 59 _____ 588 _ 588

Jpmarn _______________181 _106 __ 81 _ 91*_ 68 __ 61 _____ 588 _ 588

Gonzo ________________172 _134 __ 86 _ 63 _ 63 __ 60 _____ 578 _ 578

Sunflower3 ____________173 _109 __ 84 _ 82 _ 60 __ 65 _____ 573 _ 573

Joe Public______________185 _123 __ 98 _ 67 _ 62 __ 39 _____ 574 _ 570

John mac _____________ 212*__78 __ 82 _ 68 _ 70 __ 54 _____ 564 _ 563

adam240610 __________ 188 __104 __96 _ 62 _ 56 __ 57 _____ 563 _ 558

__ NormaL ____________164 __ 95 __ 55 _ 72 _ 77 __84 _____ 547 _ 547

Danno _______________ 154 _ 121 __ 76 _ 76 _ 39 __ 55 _____ 521 _ 518

(Danno alt ____________ 154 _ 121 __ 76 _ 90 _ 49 __ 55 _____ 547 _ 544)

200motels _ (6/10)_____ 115 __ 84 __ 48 _ 56 _ 44 __ 35 _____ 382 _ 371

esposito _ (2/10)________ 46 __ 31 __ 03 _ 08 _ 09 __ 13 ______110 _ 110

Gaoth Laidir _(2/10)______39 __ 18 __ 03 _ 14 _ 11 __ 21 ______106 _ 106

Tazio ___ (2/10)_________26 __ 38 __ 20 _ 02 _ 16 __ 13 ______115 _105

Bazlers _ (1/10)_________ 24 __ 07 __ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

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Alternate scoring lines for Danno, see discussion on August scoring for background (affects only PRC, SUN)

In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.

There are two forecasters tied for second in SUN, so there is no designated third (but Normal would be one point ahead of the tied pair, in second place)

There are three forecasters tied for third in BONUS scoring.

Normal has a score equivalent to first in Bonus and is now second for SUN, one point ahead of tied second place forecasters.

Con Sensus has a tied second for BONUS, and in total scoring ranks second alone. Total scores are not coded however. Con Sensus has moved one point below third for IMT but would now be third for MAX instead.

appledrop

Oh no I hope I'm not going to mess it all up now for Nov & Dec😱.

Think I've way underestimated rainfall for Nov but after two extremely wet months surely it has to stop raining at some stage!