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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-08-2022 8:56pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2022.
If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.
Thanks
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Summer 2022 is over and what a cracking summer it was weatherwise with plenty of warm or hot and very dry conditions for much of July and August. It appears we are kicking autumn off on a very unsettled and autumnal note with a very unsettled first week to September but what about the second week?
We start off on 7th September with an area of low pressure that will be circulating around Ireland from September 1st, it may last a little bit beyond this point.
In the very extended range the GFS 12z wants to bring back high pressure and settle things down once again after possibly a very wet period of weather.
The GFS 12z keeps this high over us for about 5 to 6 days, it's not a warm ridge, just average temperatures with this one but if there is enough sunshine and cloud doesnt become a problem then it could feel fairly warm and very pleasant.
We finish up with signs of this ridge breaking down with Atlantic fronts heading towards Ireland.
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Some very unsettled and potentially stormy weather showing up on today's GFS 12z from the 24th of September.
This looks like an ex hurricane on the 29th. Very unlikely to verify but if it did this could be quite nasty.
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GFS 12z is back to the high pressure fest and gone are the rather stormy looking charts towards the end of September.
Maybe a hint of a 1 day unsettled period.
High pressure quickly regains control
and on it goes right into the start of October.
The next 10 days very little measureable rain away from western and north-western coasts.
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ECM and GEM quite similar for next weekend introducing an area of LP with wet and blustery /windy weather and going by the present charts could draw down some cooler airs with it. GFS has an area of LP but keeping it much further East for now. Will see if anything comes of it .
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ECM 12Z and GFS 12Z quite similar keeping the large area of LP to the East from around Sunday but showing tight isobars over Ireland giving breezy to blustery conditions a couple of days and a possible cooler Autumnal day or two early next week and a few days with avg enough temperatures up around the mid teens, unsettled look with possible frontal rain at times too but has the look of moving along fairly quickly giving clear spells also, could see a mix of W, NW and N'lys at times next week, temperature fluctuations but not too cold, GFS looking windier and wetter especially along NW and W Atlantic coastal counties.
GEM brings the LP more over Ireland giving the windiest conditions and ICON just goes to Tues next and looks to introduce windier weather mid week but on avg would side with the ECM and GFS for now.
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This September is proving very different to last September where we had a very warm overall September. This year we have had a very unsettled and wet start to September up to the second week of the month. Since then there has been plenty of sunshine and dry weather with temperatures around average.
A very wet day is to come tomorrow, particularly in western areas but once we get that out of the way we are back to dry weather but it is going to turn significantly cooler over the next few days and into next week with potentially the first potent (for the time of year) northerly shot, where we open the door to the artic.
Next Tuesday to Thursday looks very cool indeed where daytime temperatures in northern areas may struggle to get much past 9 or 10C. Nighttime frosts are also a possibility. Snow showers would seem likely on the highlands of Scotland in this scenario with uppers of -3C over Scotland and around 0 to -1 over Ireland for a time.
By next weekend things may begin to warm up again with a ridge of high pressure from the Azores trying to move in over Ireland.
This ridge of high pressure if it verifies could deliver one final blast of summer style warmth with temperatures around 18 to 21C possible in this setup.
The high eventually breaks down with a very unsettled area of low pressure diving down from Greenland again introducing much cooler air once again. This could well be the 3rd diving low from Greenland/Iceland in a matter of weeks.
Once we get tomorrow out of the way overall things look mostly dry.
This 10 day precipitation chart is a bit misleading because the majority of the rainfall totals in this chart is going to fall tomorrow and not much rain after that.
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Todays heavy rain is starting to clear the country and the next 10 days could be mostly dry, but there will be some showers around at times, mainly in western and northern areas. We are entering a period of cooler than average temperatures and this may last into the start of October before things warm up again for a time.
Temperatures over the next week to 10 days generally low to mid teens with nighttime temperatures getting down to low single digits at times, autumn is descending upon us properly now.
Winds will be in from the north-west or a direct northerly at times over the next 10 days so this will make it feel much cooler than it has at any point since the beginning to June.
High pressure will try and set up into the first week of October with winds going back to a much milder south-westerly direction, however low pressure will never be too far away just to our north.
As for the Polar Vortex it is currently in a very early stage of development and this is due to strengthen further as we head into October.
At 384 hours the PV will have made more progress with those temperatures becoming colder and the size of the PV increasing.
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This mornings GFS 00z would be fascinating if this was December or January. All those northerlies. However it is still only September but it does look like we are going into a fairly prolonged spell of cooler than average temperatures for the first time in over a year.
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The GFS 6z currently rolling out is very different to the 00z for the first week of October, instead of a very chilly and unsettled northerly we have high pressure close to us for a few days. All to play for the first week to 10 days of October.
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ECM picked up an unsettled signal for next weekend on an earlier run, dropped it and back again on the latest run showing a disturbed pattern with wet and windy weather at some stage. UKMO on it too but GFS has us under the influence of HP so big uncertainty for now . I see Met Eireann have mentioned ' FURTHER OUTLOOK: At the moment it looks like Friday and next weekend will become much milder and more unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds at times.'
ECM showing temperatures could get up into the high teens over the weekend for a time.
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Met Eireann after the news tonight not going beyond Tuesday talking of uncertainty. Time of the year when Atlantic Hurricane season puts more energy into the North Atlantic from remnant Lows and such like. Charts are certainly changing from run to run, for now it seems the deep low around Fri/ Sat is tracking further North and not showing too strong winds at this stage but showing the potential for some heavy rain on Friday mainly in Atlantic counties from frontal rain.
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ECM back showing strong wind conditions Friday and some potential for high rainfall totals from Thurs and Fridays frontal systems but too soon for exact areas or amounts but currently highlighting Connacht and Ulster as getting the most but track and strength will no doubt shift about over the coming days.
UKMO back showing windy conditions, and ICON joins with wet and windy condition's also, GFS to a much lesser extent with a more Northerly track and GEM not on it.
Not as a high a jump in temperatures as earlier shown for the weekend, very similar to the week coming and maybe up a degree or two, probably coolest in the Northern half of the country and maybe getting up to the mid teens in parts of the Southern half of the country with cool nights.
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The models are struggling a bit in terms of how active the Atlantic becomes over the next 2 weeks with very brief and flimsy looking ridges trying to move in from the south-west at times. There is bound to be some fairly strong areas of low pressure crossing the country and all the time looking more unsettled and wetter across the west and north.
The Atlantic looks pretty much back in business for a prolonged spell now with the PV starting to get going again with growing intensity week by week.
The zonal pattern is well defined in the ensemble graph with warmer and cooler sectors alternating with the white ensemble mean line up to October 13th. After that we may go into another cooler than average spell. Looks unsettled from start to finish.
No shortage of rainfall over the next 10 days particularly in the west and north with some high rainfall totals predicted by the GFS.
Post edited by Gonzo on11 -
Uncertainty in the models from run to run with the track, timing, how deep and wind strength of a potential strong windy spell / storm out to sea towards the end of the week, possibly producing an active frontal system Thurs and giving a windy day maybe Fri but hard to know as the models show it and then the next run back off again. Earlier very stormy conditions have been moderated somewhat in the latest runs so this might just prove to be a windy spell with coastal gales and blustery overland in the end. ECM has been a bit more consistent the last couple of runs, we should be getting a better idea in the next day or so but it does look remaining unsettled with some alternating mild to cool to mild temperatures. Starting to see those steeper temperature gradients as you would expect as we move into the Autumn.
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ECM showing a disturbed pattern after next weekend, the Atlantic seems to be on a roll with no let up, continuing the wet theme in general, not al days but plenty of frontal activity. Currently looking set to get cooler in general from next weekend with some cold nights according to the ECM and GFS.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on8 -
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Today could be the last 'dry' day we get for the forseeable future. The next 2 weeks looks very wet indeed with several deluges possible and rain or showers every single day over the next 14 days. Looks mild too with the Atlantic on steroids, no shortage of wind or rain. Today will probably the last day this year that I'll cut the grass and then leave it for the winter.
The precipitation chart for rain over the next 10 days from the GFS is possibly undercooking the rainfall potential. Southern areas in particular could see well in excess of 100mm of rainfall over the next few days so flooding will become a real possibility. This highly unsettled second half to October could extend into the first week of November. By then we will need a prolonged dry spell to dry out the saturated land.
We're now at the midway stage of Autumn and this is turning out to be a very wet and unsettled Autumn, a complete flip on the weather we have had for over a year before September 1st 2022.
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This mornings GFS 6z finished up with a bit of a cold outlier, showing a northerly plunge across the country with -7 uppers and sleet/snow possible in the northern half of the country. Almost certainly won't verify but if it did, it would bring a first taste of winter for this year.
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Autumn has been very wet since September 2nd with barely any letup in the rain and deluges. Many stations are now well in excess of 100mm of rainfall for October. How is the reminaining 10 days of October going to fare out?
Unfortunately there is no let up in the very unsettled conditions, if anything we are looking at even more intense rainfall particularly for western and southern areas. I wouldn't be surprised if many western and southern stations will push pass the 200mm rainfall mark by months end. No sign of any quiet or cool weather either, the rest of the month will remain remarkably mild for the time of year with mid teen temperatures at the very least, possibly high teens in places if there is any sunshine.
The current area of low pressure is going to stick around us for the remainder of the month, there is no getting away from the fact that the next 10 to 16 days will be highly unsettled with a chance of disruptions at times from flooding.
As we run into the 1st week of November things look deeply unsettled and very mild with the Atlantic on overdrive.
The unsettled muck just goes on and on and on.
The next 10 days could see rainfall totals in excess of 100mm especially across Cork and Kerry. This would take many stations there well past the 200mm mark for October.
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Next Sunday is currently looking very warm indeed for the time of year where 17 to 19C is possible if there is decent spells of sunshine. However this plume of warm air is likely to get swept eastwards very quickly with an approaching deep area of low pressure to our west.
We are too far out from next Sunday to establish when this area of low pressure with all it's rain will sweep across Ireland, could be a dry and warm day but it could also be cooler and wet if the models bring this area of low pressure in sooner. Will have to wait a few days.
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A final blast of Autumnal warmth this Friday and Saturday before the Atlantic changes the angle of attack next week. It seems the mild south-southwesterlies which have given us a milder and wetter Autumn for alot of the season are about to be replaced by more west to northwest airflows next week looking at recent GFS outputs.
A little after mid-month we could see something more of a game changer as the jet stream looks like nose-diving into the Med as per the chart below for November 20th. A nice development for those who prefer colder weather in November:
Hopefully, this is the trend to a different weather pattern in the medium term.
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What could a change in pattern lead to, well the below is from the GFS 6z, the new parallel run backs it up to a degree as well. However, of course it is way out in FI and the GFS has been all over the place after 7 days as have all the other models recently.
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Holding the wet and blustery look for next week and temperatures in general falling back to more normal. Models differ greatly in how active it will get and timing from very windy /stormy to just gales and some active blustery frontal passages. Rainfall totals keeping that look we have seen now for a number of weeks with Atlantic coastal counties leading the way with accumulations and far less towards the East.
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The cooling trend looks to be holding in the main models, Atlantic still producing plenty of LP's and frontal activity with accompanying rainfall. Temps look like around 8 to 10C by day in general bit more around the coasts and when fronts are initially going through, much cooler nights in low single digits, could even see frost perhaps .
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Very high rainfall totals from the GFS 06Z this morning, holding a cooler theme, ECM not as cool and not as wet, the GFS is usually the more conservative rainfall predicter, will see what comes out tonight.
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The GFS 12z is even wetter than the 6z which Meteroite posted above. Some very high possible rainfall totals over the coming 10 days particularly across western and northern as well as central areas.
It will also turn much cooler from tomorrow and while temperatures will be close to normal for the rest of the month, we will feel the chill after an exceptionally mild to warm first half to November.
The GFS 12z also has some potentially stormy weather brewing deep in FI.
No shortage of rainfall, wind and generally mild/average temperatures to come over the next 2 weeks. While mild, these temperatures combined with all the unsettled conditions will make it feel much cooler than what we've been used to over the past 5 months.
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ECM more seasonal temperatures with a few warm sectors going through fairly quickly, showing some very cold nights at the end of the run . GFS and ECM showing an active Atlantic will see if any system has the potential to become stormy.
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