September 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. IMT (long term average 13.1)
2. MAX (any location on met.ie website)
3. MIN (same)
4. PRC (% of normal)
5. SUN (% of normal)
6. BONUS _ Total rainfall 2nd-3rd, maximum value, location bot required. ...

The usual deadlines and penalties apply.

M.T. Cranium ___________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.8

NormaL _______________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0 (current guidance)

Note that any rain on 4th will not count towards this bonus question outcome, totals from daily weather summaries published on met.ie website.

Apologies for being a bit late with this, I was thinking it was the 29th for some reason this morning so I was planning this post time all along. D'oh.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___________ 13.4 _ 24.9 _ 0.9 _ 135 _ 90 ___ 35.1

pauldry

pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3_ 1.8_ 178 _ 100___ 42mm

Added some extremes for a laugh

Bsal

Bsal _______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 90 ___ 22.0

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___________ 13.7_ 26.1 _ -1.5_ 135 _ 90 ___ 28.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______________ 14.2 _ 26.8 _ +1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 55.5

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 13.1° ___ 25 ___ 1.5 ___ 142 ___ 95 ___ 38mm.

Artane2002

Artane2002 _______________ 13.5 _ 25.3 _ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 41

John mac

john mac _______________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 98 _ 101 ___ 47.0

just to clarify is this the total rainfall for ALL the stations combined for 2 days ? so for yesterday 30th , would be 0.3mm

edit... re-read rainfall bonus... changed totals as a result , (newport )

dasa29

Dasa29 ___________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 40.0

Gonzo

Gonzo _______________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ___ 35.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8

waterways

waterways __________13.7_ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 __ 44

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall_______14.1___25.6____1.9___112___110___46.5

appledrop

Appledrop___13.6___25.5____+0.5___145__85_38

Tazio

Tazio __________ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 36

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 14.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.6 _ 140 _ 95 ___ 38.5

adam240610

Adam240610__13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 73 ___ 44mm (high number means it won't rain for electric picnic right?)

Joe Public

Joe Public ___________ 13.2 _ 23.2 _ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ___ 35.5

mrskinner

Skinner____13.9____25____1____90____100____45

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 ___ 48mm (mostly on the 3rd...)

Danno

Danno ___________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ 3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7

200motels

200motels _ 13.5 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 93 ___ 32.3

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for September 2022

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Rainfall 2-3

Jpmarn ___________ 14.2 _ 26.8 __ 1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ______ 55.5

Dacogawa _________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 _____ 48.0 

Mr stonewall _______ 14.1 _ 25.6 __1.9 _ 112 _ 110 _____ 46.5

Tae laidir __________ 14.0 _ 26.1 __2.6 _ 140 _ 095 ____ 38.5

Danno ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 __3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7

MrSkinner _________ 13.9 _ 25.0 __ 1.0 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 45.0

pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3 __ 1.8 _ 178 _ 100 _____ 42.0

Sunflower3 ________ 13.7 _ 26.1 _ -1.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 28.1

waterways _________ 13.7 _ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 _____ 44.0

Appledrop __________13.6 _ 25.5 __0.5 _ 145 _ 085 ____ 38.0

Gonzo ____________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ____ 35.0

___ Con Sensus ____ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 0.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 38.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 32.8

john mac __________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 098 _ 101 _____ 47.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 41.0

Dasa29 ____________13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 40.0

200motels __ (-2) ___ 13.5 _ 23.9 __1.2 _ 130 _ 093 ____ 32.3

sryanbruen _________13.4 _ 24.9 __0.9 _ 135 _ 090 ____ 35.1

Bsal ______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 22.0

DOCARCH _________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8

Joe Public __________13.2 _ 23.2 __ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ____ 35.5

Adam240610 _______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 073 _____ 44.0

NormaL ___________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 25.0 __ 1.5 _ 142 _ 095 ____ 38.0

Tazio _____________ 12.0 _ 23.0 __ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 36.0

_________________________________________

23 forecasts, the consensus is for a rather warm, wet month with average sunshine. The bonus question rainfalls are shown with some stagger effect to make the range easier to spot.

Good luck this month.

appledrop

22.8 starts us off for Max on 1st Sept.

Obviously we hope it will be beaten, but just in case we better note it!

pauldry

For the rainfall bonus Claremorris is currently 17mm today so far. I'll write an update later if no one else does.

pauldry

As a final summary after day 1 of bonus Knock leads the way on 20mm

Tomorrow sees a few more batches of rain but the late evening one will probably add a lot more to the West figures though some of it is due after midnight too so won't be on the bonus.

M.T. Cranium

Yes my time frame sort of went out of focus after I set up the question, it had been looking like one complete event ending late Saturday then another one Sunday-Monday, but now there are some indistinct boundaries in the timing. Oh well, I think the question will still be largely decided on the basis of what falls in the first half of Saturday along with this rain already in the gauge.

pauldry

14.2mm in Valentia the last hour.

M.T. Cranium

Here are the stats for the 2nd ... now with the 3rd added ...

Malin Head ___3.6 + 24.0 = 27.6

Markree _____17.7 + 8.1 = 25.8

Newport _____11.7 + msg est 12 mm ** = 24 est

Ballyhaise ____0.3 + 21.4 = 21.7

Knock _______20.0 + 1.3 = 21.3

Valentia ______4.7 + 16.5 = 21.2

Claremorris __ 18.2 + 1.8 = 20.0

Mace Head ___ 5.0 + 14.7 = 19.7

Belmullet ____17.3 + 2.3 = 19.6

Dublin A ___Tr (0.0) + 19.5 = 19.5

Phoenix Park __ 0.0 + 17.6 = 17.6

Oak Park _____ 0.1 +16.4 = 16.5

Dunsany ______0.2 + 15.9 = 16.1

Casement __Tr (0.0) + 15.3 = 15.3

Sherkin ______ 5.6 + 9.4 = 15.0

Mullingar _____ 1.5 +12.1 = 13.6

Johnstown C __ 0.3 + 11.5 = 11.8

Roches Pt ____ 8.4 + 2.0 = 10.4

MtDillon ______1.6 + 8.4 = 10.0

Gurteen ______3.0 + 6.8 = 9.8

Moorepark ____6.2 + 2.6 = 8.8

Cork ________ 7.3 + 1.2 = 8.5

Athenry ______7.0 + 0.5 = 7.5

Finner _______ 4.6 + 2.5 = 7.1

Shannon _____ 0.4 + 0.4 = 0.8

** Newport missing data, had a look at radar loop, my estimate for 3rd is 12 mm, which would be below the total for Malin Head. Some thunderstorms developed, that may be the reason for the missing data (power outage?) ... Mace Head had perhaps a bit more than Newport from the radar loop. Have a look (48h radar loop gives enough coverage) and see what you think. Maybe we will get some data eventually.

____________________________

will look at the scoring results later today perhaps.

M.T. Cranium

Some heavy rain moving onto the southwest coast, it occurs to me that the day might run 01h to 01h (00z to 00z), so this coming hour while appearing under the 4th on the reporting format might appear under the 3rd for "yesterday's weather." Sherkin Island may turn out to be proof of that point.

M.T. Cranium

I edited in the Saturday 3rd rainfalls to the earlier list for Friday 2nd, and Malin Head at 27.6 mm appears to be tops, although Newport had missing data and could be close. But based on 27.6 mm, this would be the scoring for the bonus question (note that only one forecast from Bsal, in addition to "NormaL" based on model prediction, was below the outcome):

Sunflower3 ________ 28.1 ___ 10

Danno ____________ 29.7 ___ 10

DOCARCH _________ 29.8 ___ 10

___ NormaL ________25.0 ___ 10

200motels _________ 32.3 ___ 09

M.T. Cranium _______ 32.8 ___ 09

Bsal ______________ 22.0 ___ 09

Gonzo ____________ 35.0 ___ 08

sryanbruen ________ 35.1 ___ 08

Joe Public _________ 35.5 ___ 08

Tazio _____________ 36.0 ___ 08

Appledrop _________ 38.0 ___ 07

Kindred Spirit ______ 38.0 ___ 07

___ Con Sensus ____ 38.0 ___ 07

Tae laidir __________ 38.5 ___ 07

Dasa29 ___________ 40.0 ___ 06

Artane2002 ________ 41.0 ___ 06

pauldry ___________ 42.0 ___ 06

waterways _________44.0 ___ 05

Adam240610 _______44.0 ___ 05

MrSkinner _________ 45.0 ___ 05

Mr stonewall _______ 46.5 ___ 04

john mac __________47.0 ___ 04

Dacogawa _________ 48.0 ___ 04

Jpmarn ___________ 55.5 ___ 03

----------------------------------------

(scores do not go all the way down to zero or even one because of that burst of heavy rain within the first six hours after the forecast period, I thought perhaps it would be fair to elevate the scoring for the higher forecasts which were not as far off the outcome as they would be if it had stayed dry then, also it was difficult to find large gaps in the forecast groups ... if Newport does eventually report, the scoring would likely stay the same if it failed to increase the maximum by more than 2-3 mm anyway, but I will check back for reports for a few more days just in case.)

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 15.1 which was 1.0 above normal.

MAX 22.8, MIN not tracked yet.

PRC 293% of normal

SUN 99% of normal (593/600)

BONUS 27.6 mm already scored above

M.T. Cranium

MIN of 5.4 at Mountdillon on 10th is probably the lowest so far. Not expecting it to hold up though.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks (a bit late ...)

IMT 14.8 (second week 14.5, 0.8 above normal)

MAX 22.8 MIN 5.1 (14th, Mountdillon) _ but MIN already down to at least 4 C at several locations early 16th.

PRC now 212% of normal with the second week at 130% (wet southeast, dry northwest).

SUN 95% of normal with the second week at 90% (540/600), Valentia kept it respectable with 142%, the other five locations all below normal.

The rainfall on 2nd - 3rd was already scored and I just checked to see if missing data for Newport (3rd) has been posted, but not so far.

M.T. Cranium

Mountdillon at zero C both 0400 and 0500, may go lower before sunrise. Markree had 1 C also.

appledrop

Min confirmed as - 0.5 at Mt. Dillion for 17th.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 14.1, third week average was 12.6, 0.5 below normal.

MAX 22.8 and MIN -0.5

PRC now 146% with the second week dry, only 15% (by end of 21st, if I included the rain that has fallen in the grid today, this would be closer to 50%) .. PRC would then be about 157%. If it stays fairly dry to end of the month, this will end up only slightly above normal.

SUN has edged above normal to 103% with the third week 120% of normal (721/600). This may fall back a bit by end of the month.

pauldry

Isn't precipitation close to 150 of normal already even if there's zero rainfall for rest of month. Or maybe I'm confusing the way the rainfall is calculated. If its an aggregate as opposed to a singular station method maybe there's an outcome I'm unaware of. Still I'm sure I'll learn as we finish the month.

After today for example Oak Park has had over 200 percent of the rainfall it normally gets for the whole of September. Belmullet around 75 percent but most of the other 9 are well over 100 percent of their monthly totals.

appledrop

Good job we made a note of that Max at start of Sept as looks like that's as high as we will get.

Unusually to have such a low max for Sept and so much rain but sure its Ireland our good luck had to run out after a fantastic summer.

M.T. Cranium

My weekly reports are meant to apply to the time elapsed so far, so the report of "now 146%" and estimated 157% were for the periods 1-21 and then 1-22 Sep. If there wasn't much additional rainfall, that 157% would gradually deflate down towards 115% but since I posted the trends have been wetter anyway and I don't think the 157% will deflate. But the 157% through 22 days only guarantees a minimum outcome of

(22*157 + 0 )/30 = (3454/30) = 115%

If the estimate is changed to 50% then the equation becomes

(22*157 + 8*50)/30 = 3854/30 = 128.8%

and if the last days manage a normal amount (for those eight days) then it's

(22*157 + 8*100)/30 = 4254/30 = 141.8%

The same is true of sunshine reports, there we had a 21-day report of 103% so that if the last nine days averaged 70% (my current guess) then the outcome is

(21*103 + 9*70)/30 = (2163+630)/30 = 2793/30 = 93.1% of normal.

As to the ongoing IMT that is also the average for the three weeks followed by an average for the week just ended. I get the differences from normal for the weekly values from the Ag Report and I don't currently mention the ongoing anomaly of the multi-week average although if you look back at the three weekly reports and take the average of those weekly anomalies that would likely be within 0.1 of the ongoing anomaly (I think September's normal IMT was given as 13.1, it stands to reason that 1-21 Sep will be a bit warmer than the month, maybe 13.7 or so, and the ongoing average of 14.1 is therefore 0.4 above normal for that period (but 1.0 above the end of month normal).

This is not some personal MTC quirk, all climate tables for partial months have that format when they do reference normals to date. For example if you look at any CF6 report for a U.S. location, the mean temperature to that date is followed by an anomaly, which is calculated from data for the same period, not a reference to end of month anomaly.

Also if you look at the CET (UK) averages they will show an anomaly relative to the running average in the data set to the last day of data, so today's report (today being 24th) to the 23rd says 15.5 C for the CET and that is 2.0 above normal but for the period 1-23 Sep, not 1-30 Sep. Oddly the UKMO who run the Hadley CET stick to the 1961-90 normals for their anomaly reporting, while the US NWS has already moved on from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020. I think that the anomalies currently reported on the met.ie site in various products are relative to 1981-2010, they have not "introduced" 1991-2020 normals yet. Same could be said for Canadian data reporting, still using 1981-2010 normals. I can tolerate the gradual introduction of 1991-2020 but find the 1961-90 base for the CET to be odd to say the least, that "normal" climate period is almost entirely before the AGW signal hit the tables around the late 1980s. I may not live to see what normal period goes next with them, surely 1971-2000 (which nobody ever references) has to be given its time in the spotlight there? Or will they jump straight into 1981-2010? Frankly, they should, otherwise just about every month is going to come out above normal.

Tae laidir

Why is the average based on a rolling 30 year average?

Why not expand it to 40 year? We have the data.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119663912#Comment_119663912

A "Climatological normal" is defined as thirty years and was formally brought into use in the mid-1930s and has been used since:

Climatological normal - Wikipedia

Also, just to add - as a climatological observer myself and 12 years through the 30 years it takes to build up a record, I don't fancy another ten added on! :D

M.T. Cranium

Tazio has a hammer on us with 23.0 for MAX, the interesting factor there (as Tazio is not a regular entrant and cannot win the annual contest) is that the actual result of his hammer may be to drop September scores enough to make the month a dropped score for most. Not sure if there are any fairness factors in play there or not. Will run the scores both ways and see what it actually means for the contest.

Any PRC hammer would be a weak one as we have forecasts around 140 and also higher (170 to 180) but a lot of people went 120 or higher anyway. The hammer there could be a little bit of a factor though, no hammer would exist if the outcome settles into the middle of that gap (probably 155 is the middle of a narrow range for that).

Looking at the forecasts, I think Gonzo might have one of the higher scores. The IMT is going to drift down to around 13.3 or 13.4 I believe.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 13.4, after a weekly average of 11.4 which was 1.0 below normal for the week; the IMT could fall to 13.3 by end of the month.

MAX 22.8 and MIN -0.5 seem set now.

PRC had fallen to 136% of normal with the week at 106%, but rain expected on Friday will probably give an outcome close to 155%.

SUN was on 101% with the fourth week 92% of normal. This seems likely to drop off slightly but perhaps not enough to go below 98%.

I will wait until the first of October to do a preliminary scoring estimate as the PRC numbers may or may not invoke any changes to how the minimum progression would occur. But as we're going to be waiting until the 4th for confirmation via the MS, I will post some estimated scores.

The October forecast thread has opened, if you can find it among all the other threads.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT finished on 13.3 and PRC appears to be around 145% of normal. SUN likely stayed close to 100%.

I will work up some preliminary scoring from the data I have estimated (or confirmed) later today.

M.T. Cranium

Here we go with the early look at scoring. I will need to wait for the MS (on fourth ?) to check the stats. Made one "executive decision" about the MAX scoring which requires minimum progression. Tazio had the hammer on us, but is not a regular entrant therefore cannot rank in the annual contest. To keep the September scores in a more similar range to other months, I have gone with the regular boost for MAX, and awarded Tazio a bonus five points (plus the two he received from the boost) to maintain his relative score for the month compared to the other forecasters. It's not so much a rule made during play as a rule that I hadn't really considered as an issue until it happened. As far as the contest is concerned, the only real impact of this will be that fewer forecasters will be dropping their September score. Joe Public was moved up in the boosted progression to maintain equity as his "hammer" score was not going to be affected as much as the rest.

The table is left in the same order as the forecast table for now. An adjusted table will be posted around the 4th of October.

Preliminary Scoring for September 2022

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS ____ TOTALS

___ Estimated data _ 13.3_22.8_-0.5_145_100 _ 27.6

Jpmarn ___________ 16 _ 01*_ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 ______ 31

Dacogawa _________ 17 _ 04*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 57 

Mr stonewall _______ 17 _ 06*_ 00 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 39

Tae laidir __________ 18 _ 03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 50

Danno ____________ 18 _ 06*_ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 52

MrSkinner _________ 19 _ 13*_ 05 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 05 ______ 52

pauldry ___________ 20 _ 02*_ 00 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 42

Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 03*_ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 64

waterways _________21 _ 15*_ 18 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 69

Appledrop _________ 22 _ 07*_ 10 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 68

Gonzo ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77

___ Con Sensus ____ 23 _ 11*_ 07 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 07 ______ 65

M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 09*_ 15 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 72

john mac __________ 23 _ 09*_ 08 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 04 ______ 54

Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 11*_ 02 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 58

Dasa29 ____________23 _ 17*_ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 76

200motels __ (-2) ___ 23 _ 18*_ 03 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 __ 72-2=70

sryanbruen _________24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 72

Bsal ______________ 25 _ 17*_ 05 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 69

DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 12*_ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 60

Joe Public __________24 _ 20*_ 04 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 67

Adam240610 _______ 23 _ 07*_ 16 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 05 ______ 59

NormaL ___________ 23 _ 07*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 60

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 13*_ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 66

Tazio _____________ 12 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 52+05=57

_________________________________________

Minimum progression was applied to MAX and considered for PRC. A hammer situation arose in both of them, only applied to PRC (see note above the table). Several MIN scores were zero but not enough to invoke a boost (one third of scores must require, or actual scoring progression must be lower than usual, it was basically similar to most other months except for the zero scores).

The raw scores for PRC were all within a very similar progression to the minimum progression even before a reduction for the hammer, therefore it turned out that the PRC scores were not adjusted. If the MS gives a different outcome it seems unlikely that the scores would change much as most of them could then qualify for the boost and remain similar.

(min prog before adjustment would be 15,14,13,12,11,10,09,08,08,07,07,06,06,05,05,04,04,03,03,02,02,01,01 for 23 scores)

===========================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Rainfall 2-3

Jpmarn ___________ 14.2 _ 26.8 __ 1.5 _ 115 _ 120 ______ 55.5

Dacogawa _________ 14.1 _ 26.0 _ -0.5 _ 108 _ 104 _____ 48.0 

Mr stonewall _______ 14.1 _ 25.6 __1.9 _ 112 _ 110 _____ 46.5

Tae laidir __________ 14.0 _ 26.1 __2.6 _ 140 _ 095 ____ 38.5

Danno ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 __3.7 _ 135 _ 115 ___ 29.7

MrSkinner _________ 13.9 _ 25.0 __ 1.0 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 45.0

pauldry ___________ 13.8 _ 26.3 __ 1.8 _ 178 _ 100 _____ 42.0

Sunflower3 ________ 13.7 _ 26.1 _ -1.5 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 28.1

waterways _________ 13.7 _ 24.7 _ -0.7 _ 102 _ 107 _____ 44.0

Appledrop __________13.6 _ 25.5 __0.5 _ 145 _ 085 ____ 38.0

Gonzo ____________ 13.6 _ 25.3 _ -1.2 _ 143 _ 106 ____ 35.0

___ Con Sensus ____ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 0.8 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 38.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 32.8

john mac __________ 13.5 _ 25.4 _ -1.7 _ 098 _ 101 _____ 47.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.5 _ 25.3 __ 1.3 _ 125 _ 090 _____ 41.0

Dasa29 ____________13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 40.0

200motels __ (-2) ___ 13.5 _ 23.9 __1.2 _ 130 _ 093 ____ 32.3

sryanbruen _________13.4 _ 24.9 __0.9 _ 135 _ 090 ____ 35.1

Bsal ______________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 22.0

DOCARCH _________ 13.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.9 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 29.8

Joe Public __________13.2 _ 23.2 __ 1.1 _ 110 _ 109 ____ 35.5

Adam240610 _______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -0.9 _ 180 _ 073 _____ 44.0

NormaL ___________ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 25.0

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 25.0 __ 1.5 _ 142 _ 095 ____ 38.0

Tazio _____________ 12.0 _ 23.0 __ 2.0 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 36.0

_________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Posting this draft version of what I hope will be the final scoring table, MS has not popped yet ... mostly I need to confirm that SUN is 100% or close enough that scores won't change. The confirmed scoring is now in order but otherwise maintains the preliminary scoring, except that I discovered an error in addition for DOCARCH who had 70 points and not 60 as shown there. (any mod is welcome to edit that in the other table but no urgent need to do so) ... if I do have to change anything in these tables I will do it by edits after 1100h and will note the types of changes that were required (or will indicate that no changes were needed). Later edit _ no changes to scoring, the MAX was given as 22.7 rather than 22.8 as we were tracking, makes no difference to the need for minimum progression scoring anyway. The SUN was 98% of normal, which also changed no scores from the 100% estimate.

Congrats to Gonzo and dasa29 for a solid showing in September.

Confirmed scoring for September 2022

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS ____ TOTALS

___ Confirmed data _ 13.3_22.7_-0.5_145_098 _ 27.6 mm

Gonzo ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 13 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77

Dasa29 ___________ 23 _ 17*_ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 76

sryanbruen _________24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 72

M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 09*_ 15 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ______ 72

DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 12*_ 16 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 70

200motels __ (-2) ___23 _ 18*_ 03 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 72-2=70

waterways _________21 _ 15*_ 18 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 05 ______ 69

Bsal ______________25 _ 17*_ 05 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 69

Appledrop _________ 22 _ 07*_ 10 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 68

Joe Public __________24 _ 20*_ 04 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 08 ______ 67

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 13*_ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 66

___ Con Sensus ____ 23 _ 11*_ 07 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 07 ______ 65

Sunflower3 ________ 21 _ 03*_ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 64

___ NormaL _______ 23 _ 07*_ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 60

Adam240610 _______23 _ 07*_ 16 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 05 ______ 59

Artane2002 ________ 23 _ 11*_ 02 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 58

Dacogawa _________ 17 _ 04*_ 20 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 57 

Tazio _____________ 12 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 52+05=57

john mac __________ 23 _ 09*_ 08 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 04 ______ 54

Danno ____________ 18 _ 06*_ 00 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 52

MrSkinner _________ 19 _ 13*_ 05 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 05 ______ 52

Tae laidir __________ 18 _ 03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 50

pauldry ___________ 20 _ 02*_ 00 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 42

Mr stonewall _______ 17 _ 06*_ 00 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 39

Jpmarn ___________ 16 _ 01*_ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 ______ 31

_________________________________________

Minimum progression was applied to MAX and considered for PRC. A hammer situation arose in both of them, only applied to PRC (see note above the earlier posted preliminary scoring table -- the actual forecasts can also be found there). Several MIN scores were zero but not enough to invoke a boost (one third of scores must require, or actual scoring progression must be lower than usual, it was basically similar to most other months except for the zero scores).

The raw scores for PRC were all within a very similar progression to the minimum progression even before a reduction for the hammer, therefore it turned out that the PRC scores were not adjusted. If the MS gives a different outcome it seems unlikely that the scores would change much as most of them could then qualify for the boost and remain similar.

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to Sep 2022

The table order changes this month to the best 7/9 rankings. Ranks for total score continue to be shown and compared to previous month. (contest is eventually decided on best 10/12).

Congrats to Appledrop for continuing to lead the way, with the new format the top ten looks more different than the changes of ranks, as it is now based on the best 7/9 ... that has allowed sunflower3 and Gonzo who missed one contest to move up to a more representative location in the table. ... most forecasters retained the Sep score in their best 7/9, a few with scores 50 or lower did not and thus utilized an earlier higher score than Sep to stay in touch with the chase pack. ... I continue to show the alternate results for Danno in August which despite being 26 net points only moves Danno up a few spots in both total score and best 7/9, but will continue to track that for general interest. ... 200motels has already missed 3 (now also Oct) but would not have moved past anyone in the top 21 even with a 100 added in any of those three.

Total score _______________________________________________________________ Best 7/9 (table based)

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ___ Jan_Feb_Mar _Apr _May_Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep __TOTAL //_ (rank) (prev)

_01 _ (01) __Appledrop _______67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _79 _ 89 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 __ 624 __ 512 (1) _ (1)

01.7_(01.8) ___ Con Sensus ___80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _61 _ 70 _ 64 _ 64 _ 65 __ 607 __ 490 (1.9)_(2.5)

_04 _(t05) __Kindred Spirit ____80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _55 _ 63 _ 63 _ 78 _ 66 __ 588 __ 487 (2) _ (4)

_t07 _(04) __Mr stonewall _____67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _68 _ 73 _ 43 _ 73 _ 39 __ 568 __ 486 (3) _ (2)

_05 _ (02) __ Tae laidir _______70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _76 _ 64 _ 64 _ 68 _ 50 __ 587 __ 485 (t4) _ (3)

_02 _ (03) __ Bsal ___________61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _73 _ 71 _ 68 _ 55 _ 69 __ 601 __ 485 (t4) _ (5)

_03 _ (07) __sryanbruen ______65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _65 _ 67 _ 83 _ 65 _ 72 __ 591 __ 484 (6) _ (t6)

_11 _ (11) __DOCARCH ______ 78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _61 _ 78 _ 42 _ 55 _ 70 __ 558 __ 469 (t7) _ (12)

_19 _ (19) __Gonzo __________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _65 _ 63 _ 70 _ --- _ 77 __ 512 __ 469 (t7) _ (13)

_16 _ (16) __sunflower3 ______77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _66 _ 59 _ --- _ 72 _ 64 __ 527 __ 468 (9) _ (t10)

_06 _(t05) __MrSkinner ______ 63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _66 _ 70 _ 55 _ 56 _ 52 __ 574 __ 467 (t10) _ (8)

_10 _ (08) __Pauldry _________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _64 _ 75 _ 61 _ 50 _ 42 __ 559 __ 467 (t10) _(t6)

_09 _ (10) __dacogawa _______78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _56 _ 77 _ 48 _ 77 _ 57 __ 564 __ 466 (12) _ (9)

_t07 _(09) __Artane2002 _____ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _60 _ 51 _ 68 _ 72 _ 58 __ 568 __ 462 (13) _(t10)

_13 _ (14) __M.T. Cranium ____ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _46 _ 79 _ 45 _ 71 _ 72 __ 543 __ 459 (14) _(t14)

_12 _ (13) __Dasa29 _________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _65 _ 63 _ 47 _ 64 _ 76 __ 552 __ 455 (15) _(17)

_17 _ (12) __Jpmarn _________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _44 _ 54 _ 71 _ 76 _ 31 __ 516 __ 441 (16) _(t14)

_18 _(t17) __john mac________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _54 _ 73 _ 29 _ 46 _54 __ 514 __ 439 (17)_ (16)

_15 _(t17) __waterways ______ 65_ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _54 _ 56 _ 51 _ 73 _ 69 __ 529 __ 437 (18) _ (18)

14.0_ (18.6)__ NormaL ______ 60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _55 _ 77 _ 38 _ 37 _ 60 __ 506 __431 (18.8)_(17.7)

_14 _ (15) __Joe Public _______50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _53 _ 57 _ 71 _ 58 _ 67 __ 532 __ 429 (19) _ (21)

_20 _ (20) __adam240610 ____ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _47 _ 76 _ 55 _ 45 _ 59 __ 493 __ 422 (20) _ (20)

_21 _ (21) __Danno _________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _57 _ 46 _ 80 _ 53 _ 52 __ 482*__ 417*(21) _(19)

_22 _ (22) __200motels ______ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _--- _ --- _ 76 _ 45 _ 70 __ 371

_23 _ (23) __esposito ________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 58 _ --- __ 110

_24 _ (24) __Gaoth laidir _____--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 36 _ --- __ 106

_25 _ (26) __Tazio __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ 48 _ --- _ 57 __ 105

_26 _ (25) __Bazlers ________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56

==================================================

* Danno would have 506 total points and 441 for best 7/9 counting the alternate Aug score, and rest of field generally 2 pts lower.

Updated category scoring January to September 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________225 _180 _180 _135 _90 __ 90+ ____ 900 _ 900

Appledrop _____________196 _106 _  111_ 88_ 61 __ 63*_____ 625 _ 624

___ Consensus _________195*_113 __ 97 _ 75 _ 63 __ 64 _____ 607 _ 607

Bsal __________________186 _118 _104*_ 69 _ 57 __ 67 _____ 601 _ 601

sryanbruen ____________181 _ 131 __80 _ 76 _ 68 __ 55 _____ 591 _ 591

Kindred Spirit __________188 _108 __ 87 _ 86*_ 60 __ 59 _____ 588 _ 588

Tae laidir ______________194*_ 98 __ 92 _ 79 _ 62 __ 62 _____ 587 _ 587

Mr Stonewall ___________175 __92 _ 110 _ 74 _ 62 __ 55 _____ 568 _ 568

MrSkinner _____________193 __ 84 __ 81 _ 88 _ 67*__61 _____ 574 _ 574

Pauldry _______________186 _ 107 __ 93  _ 50 _ 62 __ 62 _____ 560 _ 559

Artane2002 ___________ 192 __ 95 __ 91 _ 69 _ 58 __ 63*_____ 568 _ 568

Dacogawa ____________ 199 __ 99 _ 102 _ 51 _ 57 __ 56 _____ 564 _ 564

DOCARCH _____________178 _112 __ 87 _ 69 _ 55 __ 57 _____ 558 _ 558

Dasa29 _______________176 _107 __ 82 _ 71 _ 59 __ 60 _____ 555 _ 552

M.T. Cranium __________ 180 _ 84 __ 86 _ 67 _ 62 __ 64 _____ 543 _ 543

Joe Public______________177 _105 __ 95 _ 65 _ 53 __ 38 _____ 533 _ 532

waterways _____________186 _100 __ 69 _ 66 _ 70 __38 _____ 529 _ 529

Sunflower3 ____________165 _100 __ 74 _ 79 _ 52 __ 57 _____ 527 _ 527

Jpmarn _______________165 __ 86 __ 66 _ 82 _ 58 __59 _____ 516 _ 516

John mac _____________ 193 __ 74 __ 80 _ 59 _ 61 __ 48 _____ 515 _ 514

Gonzo ________________156 _116*__ 73 _ 62 _ 54 __ 51 _____ 512 _ 512

__ NormaL ____________158 __ 85 __ 51 _ 70 _ 67*__75 _____ 506 _ 506

adam240610 __________ 169 __ 88 __ 88 _ 53 _ 46 __ 53 _____ 497 _ 493

Danno _______________ 145 _ 112 __ 73 _ 65 _ 37 __ 53 _____ 485 _ 482

(Danno alt ____________ 145 _ 112 __ 73 _ 79 _ 47 __ 53 _____ 509 _ 506)

200motels _ (6/9) ______ 115 __ 84 __ 48 _ 56 _ 44 __ 35 _____ 382 _ 371

esposito _ (2/9) _________ 46 __ 31 __ 03 _ 08 _ 09 __ 13 ______110 _ 110

Gaoth Laidir _(2/9) _______39 __ 18 __ 03 _ 14 _ 11 __ 21 ______106 _ 106

Tazio ___ (2/9) __________26 __ 38 __ 20 _ 02 _ 16 __ 13 ______115 _105

Bazlers _ (1/9) __________ 24 __ 07 __ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

=====================================

Alternate scoring lines for Danno, see discussion on August scoring for background (affects only PRC, SUN)

In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.

For PRC, two are tied first so one score is shown third with asterisk (no score indicated as second).

There are two forecasters tied for third in BONUS scoring.

There was an error in the previous table (Aug category scoring) ... this copy :

<< There is a tie for second in SUN so there is no designated third place score with an asterisk. Also NormaL joins that tie for second.>>

should have indicated a tie for third including SUN. This error has been fixed in the current table where SUN is still tied for third.

Normal has a score equivalent to first in Bonus and tied third for SUN.

Con Sensus has a tied second for BONUS, and in total scoring (second alone). Total scores are not coded however. Also Con Sensus would rank third for IMT.

Tazio

Thank you MT for an incredible level of detail and explaining the scoring.

Also, thanks for allowing us non regulars to enter the fray! It's very enjoyable.

Cheers Tazio