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2022 Hurricane season
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20-08-2022 11:28pm#1
2022 is proving to be a very quiet year globally so far, with all metrics well below the LTA to date.
The Atlantic, widely forecast to be a very active season, has been almost dormant up to now. ACE is running at just 15% of the LTA, Named Storm Days at just 21%. No hurricanes have formed. The media have been awfully quiet about this.
The NW Pacific is doing only slightly better. The NE Pacific is the only basin showing any real activity in terms of ACE and NSD. The Indian Ocean has had a few more weak named systems that haven't contributed much to ACE, which still remains below LTA.
All data from here.
It looks like the Atlantic may finally be waking up from its slumber, with "Potential Tropical Cyclone" Four having formed in the western Gulf of Mexico but not amounting to much as it moves inland over Mexico. Further east, the MDR may show signs of developments, though at the moment no more than a 20% chance in the next 5 days.
Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on2
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The MJO has been very non-descript over the past few weeks but is forecast to increase in amplitude in Phase 1/2 over the next few weeks, climatologically the busiest period of the season. I don't think the lack of storms has had much of an impact on our weather.
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Still no activity in the Atlantic. Total ACE of 2.8 is now just 12% of the LTA (23.5).
Very little activity is being forecast by the ECM over the next month. Very low probabilities of Tropical Storm (named systems) and zero chance of Hurricanes. We would really need an insanely hyper October and November to get anywhere close to the hyperactive season that had been forecast.
Link: ECMWF | Charts
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Finished August and seasonal ACE to date ended up just 7% of the LTA. Named-storm days just 13%. The whole northern hemisphere is remarkably quiet, well down on all metrics.
TD Five has now formed in the mid-Atlantic and is expected to become named later today and up to an 80-kt hurricane in a couple of days.
The other two systems may become Tropical Depressions in the next couple of days, though the one further east is expected to quickly dissipate.
Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on2 -
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We're bang on the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season now, so how are we doing?
Earl has now completed extratropical transition and the Atlantic looks quiet for the next few days after briefly waking up from its July and August slumber to bring us two hurricanes, Danielle and Earl, to add to the previous three weak systems. On all metrics the season has been well below par.
The next two weeks don't seem to show any signal for the type of hyperactivity that is required to prevent this year's seasonal forecasts from becoming one of the more spectacular busts.
Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on4 -
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TS Fiona is forecast to have significant wind shear, some dry air and land interaction to keep it from rapid development. Some strengthening still expected.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/150856.shtml?
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Fiona has become a Cat 3 100-kt major hurricane as it moves northwest away from the Turks and Caicos islands.
TD Eight has become Tropical Storm Gaston this evening. Currently 35 knots, it's not expected to reach hurricane force before becoming extratropical as it nears the Azores by the weekend.
TD Nine has an 80% chance of forming near the Windward islands in the next 5 days.
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Global stats to date. Everywhere is well below the long-term averages (in brackets), except for the one weak named system in the SW Indian Ocean. Source.
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Grand Étang is prone to strong southeastern Föhn winds (called Les Suêtes) off the 400-m terrain to its southeast. This morning it gusted up to 167 kph as the low centre approached, most likely aided by the Venturi effect through that valley running NW-SE.
Further west there was a gust of 171 kph ar Arisaig.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/141099.pdf
4. CLIMATOLOGY OF LES SUÊTES.
Suête events can occur year round but tend to be more frequent and stronger in winter months. Gusts in excess of 90 km/h occur several times a month on winter. Wind gusts of 147 km/h (80 knots), or more, have been recorded at least once in each year for the last 15 years. Gusts in excess of 160 km/h (87 knots) were recorded at least once in 11 of those years and gusts in excess of 200 km/h (109 knots) in 2 of the last 15 years. In a randomly selected 6 month period from July to December in 2006 there were 11 events exceeding the warning criteria of gusts over 90 km/h (49 knots). Suête events typically last 5 or 6 hours but can be as short as 1 hour or, persist for more than 12 hours.
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The Canaries currently getting heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Hermine ( formerly a short lived Tropical Storm ) as it becomes strongly sheared and set to get serious rainfall accumulations and potentially lively thunderstorm activity mostly tomorrow and into Monday . Wind not an issue just rainfall and knowing that landscape and having witnessed flash flooding there on a minor scale some infrastructure could get under a fair amount of pressure as water sweeps down from the higher terrain.
The Spanish Weather Service have Red warnings for parts with 120 to 180mm possible in 12hrs in the Western Islands.
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