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Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

  • 12-07-2022 9:17pm
    Registered Users Posts: 13,116 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    During the past week or so, the GFS has been hinting at some notable hot weather for Western Europe around the 15th July. Some runs had gone off showing ridiculous high temperatures getting widespread 40s into SE England and nearing 50C in southwestern France. For context, the UK record maximum temperature is 38.7C from July 2019 and France 45.9C in June 2019. The values on these GFS runs would completely smash these records to bits, similar to the Canadian heatwave in June 2021. Now and again, we've also seen the possibility of 30C or more being achieved in Ireland. The extreme temperatures being projected by the GFS have been pegged back a touch as time has gone on but only relatively speaking as records would still be tumbling or be vulnerable. The warm weather for Ireland meanwhile has only gotten more extreme lately with runs. It's not only the GFS doing this now, it's also the ECM, GEM and UKMO showing Ireland getting a direct feed by Monday 18th July. Details given below.


    The latest ECM run as of writing this post shows an exceptional hot airmass reaching Ireland by Monday 18th July with 850hPa temperatures widely exceeding 20C. On the surface, such high temperatures aloft would usually correlate with mid to upper 30s but due to Ireland's maritime climate, moderation must be taken into consideration. Favoured areas such as inland regions would achieve over 30C. In fact, the raw ECM temperatures indicate values of 32C around Kildare/Dublin on both Monday and Tuesday. Much of the north Midlands and parts of Clare/Kerry/Limerick indicated to reach at least 30C on Monday. The 30s become more confined to the east on Tuesday. It is uncertain whether it would be appropriate to apply the usual 2C correction to the raw values because as it is, such widespread nature of 30s is exceptional and 32C for the east would be challenging records. The record max for County Dublin for example is 31.0C.

    GEM also shows 32C in a similar vicinity to the ECM on Monday around Meath/Kildare area. GFS shows 32C being achieved in Clare. Both models overall are variations on a theme already described above by the ECM.

    The UKMO shows the 20C isotherm at 850hPa clearing the entire country through Monday. The only known time the 20C isotherm in recent history has reached Ireland was the early hours of 28th June 2019 into the far southeast so this would be phenomenal. It does not show very high surface temperatures compared to the other models despite its exceptional 850hPa temperatures. However, I have never found the UKMO to be very good at picking up daily temperatures - the shorter range hi-res UKV is by far superior in this regard.

    The core of the heat has been pushed back a few times, at one time it was around the 15th and now it's around the 18th/19th which is still like 6-7 days away. So there's always the possibility that this hot weather could completely miss Ireland or significantly toned down due to different placements of a Biscay cut off low which drives the hot airmass northwards. However, for the moment, we pretty much have model agreement so it's certainly one to watch! This is likely to be a brief spell of hot weather but as brief it is, records could tumble.

    The Irish definition for a heatwave is for a station to record 5 consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 25C or more.

    REMINDER to be nice to one another. Let's keep the discussions civil and friendly! People have different preferences and they have no bearing on the weather that occurs, let's respect them.

    Post edited by DOCARCH on



  • Registered Users Posts: 943 ✭✭✭Neddyusa

    I still don't think the national record will be broken.

    Too far out, it's still FI, and still getting pushed back run by run.

    I can see 30-32 in places though.

    If these charts still show the same on Friday morning, I might think differently.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,194 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    Met Eireann is reporting 29C for Dunshaughlin on Monday. I have never ever seen anything like that listed on their website for this location 1 day away let alone almost a week away.

  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me

    I agree. It's to far out. Yes it is more than likely going to be a hot, if short, spell, but surely to get temperatures in Ireland to rival 33.3°C, then there would need to be a longer build up. To go from 20 to 24 over the next few days to talk of 31, 32 and even 33, would surely be a freak occurrence. I'd be excited of it did but I just don't see it.

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,915 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC

    The temperature map on the Met Éireann app makes for some interesting reading when you look at Monday and Tuesday. Several 30's and high 20's right across the country.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,906 ✭✭✭squarecircles

    Not when the 20 degree 850 isotherm is overhead.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 943 ✭✭✭Neddyusa

    I'd be more interested in the cloud overhead.

    Upper air temps get far too much attention in both summer and winter on this forum.

    They are not reliable indicators of a weather forecast for 6 or 7 days out.

    In a continental climate they may be more useful.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    Great work as Sryan. Is there a site were I can go through the years and see the records?

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,116 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    Yeah, I posted the full dataset in the hottest and coldest counties thread on Boards here. I also give the minimum temperatures there too. Mind that it may be difficult to read because of how Boards compresses the image of the table.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    Thanks Sryan.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,538 ✭✭✭Dazler97

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,218 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir

    ECM Ensemble charts for 850-hPa temperature at the peak on Monday. These are the isotherms reaching the south coast.

    Mean of members: 20 C

    Max members: 25 C

    Min members: 10 C

    There's a pretty high spread over Biscay, reflecting still a high level of uncertainty. There is still a good way to go see exactly how that Iberian low positions itself and how glancing the blow of heat will be. Interesting few days ahead...

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭bad2thebone

    Ennis is very enclosed, lots of narrow streets and it's usually very warm when it's sunny, and Im sure the fountain on the lahinch road will be popular lol

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  • Registered Users Posts: 505 ✭✭✭US3

    I've never been so excited about a weather event in my life

  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me

    I'm looking forward to it to but not going to allow expectations to get the better of me. We have been here so many times before (admittedly in winter in relation to snow) and bitter experience has shown that it can all disappear least than 48 hours out. If the models hold until Friday and continue to point towards what could be a savage 2 or 3 days of weather, then it looks like it's game on.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,555 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow

    Looking at the charts, the heat seems to be moving further north up the country and spreading more across the entire country in general? While the earlier charts showed the south / South east (cork/Waterford/Wexford) having 28-30, it seems we will now have around 24/25 while areas such as Clare, Dublin, Meath etc will get the 29/30. I'm really looking forward to the posts from these areas in the days to come!

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,487 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Sligo could get another 30c just like last year. At worst back yard should anyways.

    Interestingly on the morning of the hot Monday there's a Southwest wind that becomes South. If it stays Southwest the heat pump will be disabled somewhat and we will get high twenties.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Currently the ECM showing Tues into Weds as the thundery breakdown.

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