Full electric or hybrid - future resale

busterjones · 08-06-2022 5:29am #1

Is their a general consensus on full ev versus phev?

Looking to change from diesel to either full electric or phev.

Drive very little - max 5k a year and dobt have any regular long drives.

I have a new phev ordered but am now reconsidering move to full electric.

My major concern is resale in approx 5 years...

Will there still be a market for phev at that stage?

The full electric - I suspect much higher range as standard in 5 years (eg 1k) so would my approx 300 range hold little value at that stage?

Will batteries come down significantly in price and you'll just upgrade or replace batteries meaning secondhand evs will hold their value?

Redfox25 · 08-06-2022 6:21am

My two cents.

Go bev rather than hybrid.

Bev range of 300km should still be solid in 5 years, very few need a range of 1000km.

Phev range of 50km means you will be charging every night in order to make it work in the battery range or else its just an over priced petrol car.

crisco10 · 08-06-2022 7:31am

Yeah looking at the 2nd hand value of 5 year old leafs with seriously reduced range indicates that the BEV would hold its value well.

PhEV will also suffer with degradation but cos you are charging a lot more often (daily rather than weekly) more likely to be significant (if it's there at all). And losing any range on a PHEV will make its short range super short.

Another vote for BEV here.

08-06-2022 8:09am

With Hybrid, you have the additional costs of normal servicing- as time goes on, less and less people will want the hassle of an ICE .

Secondhand BEVs even with just a 100km range will be snapped up by people in cities who in general don’t do major work commutes or will use that BEV as a cheap to run second car - if you’re living in say Dublin, your work commute could be as little as 10-15km per day- so that over 1 week on 1 charge- servicing costs greatly reduced- the risk is battery life and issues beyond the 8 year guarantee- but I’d say many if not most will risk that for cheap motoring .

08-06-2022 8:19am

Just be prepared to wait up to 1 year for your new BEV- however considering how little mileage you do, it will be worth the wait- but would you consider a second hand BEV now, considering you do so little mileage? Not sure a new car of any description is the best for you considering such low annual mileage?

ELM327 · 08-06-2022 8:27am

Buying a car for the resale value is like not sleeping with your significant other to keep them interested for the next partner. Pointless.

I do think your use case is better suited to BEV.

monseiur · 08-06-2022 8:45am

Buying a new vehicle and driving less than 100 miles per week is financial madness. You'll take a serious hit in deprecation and in the process doing a favour for the next owner. In 5 years you'll have clocked up just 25,000 miles, which the average motorist does in less than 18 months. Forget the electric vehicles and get yourself a good, low milage petrol VW Golf, Audi A4, Skoda Octavia, Toyota Avensis or similar (budget for under €18k) - with your low mileage any of these cars will last years and the savings versus new electric will be huge. In say 5 to 10 years time when all car makers will be mass producing electric cars with more competition prices will be more reasonable, at the moment even with grants etc. they're mad money for what you're getting compared with ICE cars.

josip · 08-06-2022 8:47am

Full electric. Hybrid is like the guy who can't decide between his old girlfriend and his new girlfriend so keeps both of them.

ELM327 · 08-06-2022 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172805#Comment_119172805

I think that's more apt for plug in hybrid. HEV is more like - continuing your analogy - a married guy who has one or two affairs (EV) but stays with the wife (ICE)

Mad_maxx · 08-06-2022 2:47pm

Hybrid is old hat

slave1 · 08-06-2022 3:15pm

As someone who actively wants to look at my footprint and finances......if your diesel is going well and you've no massive bills coming up to maintain it, it makes more environmental and financial sense to keep it rather than go for a new BEV (or any other car).

Re 5 years battery, I sold my first EV with 8% degradation at 5years old and second EV with 9% degradation at 7years old

ted1 · 08-06-2022 4:52pm

At 5k a year, just kept the car you have. You don’t spend hat much time in your car. As you are considering resale value you are clearly financially savvy/aware. And it’d be hard to justify

kanuseeme · 08-06-2022 5:38pm

OP what car have you ordered? What EV would you get if you cancel the phev?

To answer your questions,

I sold a 6 year old phev, I have a 7 year old phev for sale and I have a 5 year old phev purchased.

I have no interest in a 300 km range BEV, most of my driving is within the limited range of the phev, not interested enough to arse around with chargers on a longer journey, for what it would save me, its not worth it.

its possible but I doubt that a 1000 km range car will be that common , 300 km would work but it depends on the charging network, I don't see that keeping up with demand, If I invested in a charging network, I would prefer to see a queue rather than empty stalls.

I think batteries will go into new cars rather than refurbishing older cars.

Some will want your 300km EV others will want your phev, if I was in your position I would try to loose less on depreciation, but with the used car market as it is, new might be worth considering.

Good luck.

fafy · 08-06-2022 6:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058249279/full-electric-or-hybrid-future-resale

For weekly kms of 100 per week, a fully Electric Vehicle is very suitable.

With such a low annual mileage, you'l only be charging every 2 to 3 weeks, in a PHEV, you’l be plugging in a multiple of that.

I do about 8,000 kms per year, and i am only charging up every 10 to 12 days at home. A neighbour has a PHEV, he plugs in every single night. I just couldn’t be bothered doing that, all for the sake (in my case at least) for the facility, of a very occasional, long journey.

PaulJoseph22 · 08-06-2022 6:40pm

A vote for hybrid or indeed s second hand petrol car for your particular requirements, no worries about range.

busterjones · 09-06-2022 4:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175379#Comment_119175379

Ford Kuga PHEV ordered

Now considering Ionic 5 or Leaf BEV

Have 2 diesels to trade in and we're moving to just 1 car as this is plenty for our needs - 2018 Focus saloon and a 2020 Ford Fiesta

Change is also partially motivated by the higher value of these right now

fafy · 09-06-2022 6:09pm

The Leaf will be more than adequate for your ultra low mileage. Its not a bad size, And boot is reasonably big, Ioniq 5 is far superior, but will you actually need it, and base model is 10k + extra

If a bigger boot is essential, MG have a well priced electric estate, the MG5 EV. Much better range than 40kw Leaf, and for the price, largest boot in class

fits · 10-06-2022 6:30am

If electric suits your needs definitely go electric. It would be more sensible than purchasing a new phev

...Ghost... · 11-06-2022 7:23pm

Electric for sure. None of this hybrid crap. However, you will be waiting a lot longer for an EV. Alot of people who ordered the new Leaf in March have had their orders cancelled, or delayed by several months (myself included). You will be waiting until 2023 for a new EV.

PaulJoseph22 · 12-06-2022 8:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119189758#Comment_119189758

Nothing crap about hybrids, everyone’s circumstances are different, so a hybrid can be a step in the right direction, while we wait for a fully functioning charging solution on this island.

12-06-2022 9:08am

What are hybrids like for long distance rural driving.? I always imagined them more suited to city driving for some reason.

Padre_Pio · 12-06-2022 9:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058249279/full-electric-or-hybrid-future-resale

You don't drive enough to warrant a new car.
We're approaching the end of petrol and diesel cars. I would expect them to be old(er) news in the next 5 years. Year on year car sales show this already.
PHEV is in my opinion a stopgap for automakers who are winding down ICE and building up BEV capability. I don't see the point, unless cost or a niche driving style (taxi) makes them a good choice.
I would expect rapid development in the next 5 years in BEV technology. The used car market is held up only by limited supply. When that supply comes hopefully in the next two years, the older stuff will be worthless. Why buy a 60km Leaf when there's plenty of 300km cars on donedeal?

My advice would be to buy a second hand small engine petrol car for 10k max that will suit your need and evaluate in a few years when the chip shortage and supply issues have resolved themselves. Don't bother with EV or PHEV. You'll never make back the premium you'll pay in fuel savings over the years.

...Ghost... · 12-06-2022 9:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190958#Comment_119190958

In this context, it would be silly to go hybrid over full BEV. Some circumstances suit PHEV, but the OP would be far more suited to a BEV....ideally a used Leaf based on what is in the OP.

Wildly Boaring · 12-06-2022 9:50am

If you want a new car buy one.

It makes little sense at that mileage, but my mother does it every 4 or 5 years.

Otherwise sell one car and drive the other for 5 years.

Trading in 2 ford diesels you might only get value off Ford.

Maybe offload the 2018 to Zucar or Webuycars. Then you're trading a fiesta diesel which I'm sure most dealers be happy out to sell. Maybe dealers happy to get stock these days but still think any main dealer be letting off the focus to trade.

Plenty good advice above. Price of diesel won't counter the massive depreciation of a new car.

New: Leaf, electric 208 or similar? Sell the focus now and both share the fiesta till next year. Might decide that's all you ever needed??

I'd not bother with a new hybrid or plug in hybrid.

kanuseeme · 13-06-2022 12:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190988#Comment_119190988

A diesel would give slightly better economy on a motor way, for rural, unless you have nice long stretch's of road its much like city driving, slow down for bends and cross roads, instead of urban traffic lights and right angle turns and generally less scrots per km.

kanuseeme · 13-06-2022 1:10am

OP you have 2 cars and now plan to go to 1, have you considered the mileage from both cars?

I don't know the range on the leaf but is it possible that the 2 of you could exceed it?

zweton · 13-06-2022 8:59pm

Anyone know if the electric kona is also a waiting list?

KilOit · 13-06-2022 9:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198704#Comment_119198704

I'm about 2 months waiting so far, they said July/August back in April

podge1979 · 13-06-2022 10:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119191044#Comment_119191044

Don't get your logic there mate in two years time a new EV will cost even more as more than likely the SEAI grant will be dropped when EV become more mass market.

We don't have the Scandinavians money made from oil and gas to subsidize large scale grants they drop off like the PHEV grants did.

I think peoples range anxiety will drop off too after 6 months driving an EV with 72kwh battery I've learned that I don't really need it. I've only charged 100% a hand full of times for long trips and in all honesty charge never dropped below 35-40% while stopping off for breaks and charging. Only caveat there is the charging network grows also and maintained. So why would you need and pay for a car with 1000km range living on a small island especially when you have your own filling station at home.

My advice is go for it if you feel you have the means it'll depreciate like any new car no quicker than an ICE. Also hard to get a EV(any car now even) now so in 2 years it'll be will also be demand for 2nd hand market.

Grants will dropping each year (VRT subsidies also) like their doing with BIK also for EV's next year.

Materials ain't going to get any cheaper in the mid term. Solid state batteries might change this but in reality they could be 8 to 10 years off going main stream and large scale to drop the price.