A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115871#Comment_119115871

rapidly rising wealth inequality is a very complex thing to explain and understand, i still struggle with it myself

There will always be wealth inequality, it exists and existed even in the "utopia" of hard line communism. Actual poverty is a far better measurement to gauge a country.

But again by every single measurement we are far better off now than any time in the past. Even 15 years ago. And that's even with the back drop of once in a generation and European war.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115921#Comment_119115921

yes, there will more than likely always be wealth inequality, but again, history shows, when it gets to a certain level, society snaps, and we tend towards serious conflict and wars, this is potentially where we are now!

no idea why you mentioned communism, but fair enough, a communist structure certainly sounds like pure hell to me, and i dont envisage it at all, i certainly hope we dont go down that road, we must stop tending towards extremes, it tend towards mayhem, as what we ve currently done with capitalism. we clearly took the wrong turn with it in the 70'/80's, and now we re in deep sh1t, i believe we need to take another radical turn with it, away from where we are now, i think it can be done, we have the abilities, just not the will, we seem to be stuck

id love to see your set of metrics, cause mine speak a radically different story!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116002#Comment_119116002

yes, there will more than likely always be wealth inequality, but again, history shows, when it gets to a certain level, society snaps, and we tend towards serious conflict and wars, this is potentially where we are now!

Ah Heyor, come on. That's just blatant scare mongering.

They may certainly be a certain amount of populism, but this gets over amplified by what now is considered "news sources".

The idea we will be storming the GPO any time soon is just pure fantastical.

Pussyhands

More and more news articles pointing towards a recession. Finally catching on over here!

Tony EH

@Wanderer78 again, yes work conditions were very poor in the 80's, but the difference in pay and the ability of people being able to afford their most critical of needs such as the security of property werent as much as they are now. for example, as you said, many of your friends were forced to leave the country during the 80's, in order to provide themselves with their needs, i suspect many of those eventually were able to do so, i.e. were able to eventually purchase their own homes, even though this was extremely difficult for most, it more than likely eventually happened for most. we re now in a situation whereby a growing number of people, particularly younger people, are now unable to do this, the difference between pay and the actual cost of doing so are simply too great, and it doesnt matter what they do, or dont do, many simply may never be able to. this is exactly what rising wealth inequality is and does.

Some people seem to have this impression that the 80's were some sort of devastating apocalyptic wasteland of despair for everyone. While there were certainly less employment prospects around and many had to emigrate to find work, if and when you found a job here you could actually afford to buy a house AND look after a family on a very modest (even for the times) single wage. That's a complete pipe dream today. The fact of the matter is your money went a LOT further than it does now on various things. My sister and her hubby managed to buy a three up, two down, in the 80's and all on his wage from a tyre factory job.

And if you did find getting work difficult, the social supports for such a situation were much more robust than they are now. Getting onto the housing list was far, far, easier for example should the need arise. There was no waiting around for over a decade to do so.

Good luck with that shit today.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116200#Comment_119116200

is it really! have a good look around the world, and ask yourself, are we stabilising, or destabilising, particularly, politically, economically, socially and environmentally?

we have probably moved on from old methods of expressing anger, and creating new methods, be prepared, its very likely something is just about to pop, globally!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116237#Comment_119116237

exactly my points! we re now fcuked! you may now forget about social mobility, be prepared, for something!

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111456#Comment_119111456

I sort of agree with your point, but not the conclusion.

(1) We don't have an oversupply of houses

(2) we have huge latent demand for houses

(3) many potential buyers have accumulated savings

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116381#Comment_119116381

....but only those that can afford to buy, will, savings also only represents savers, none savers are not represented, but still require housing, but are probably growing in numbers....

Global food shortages are a real and present danger and this will certainly lead to an greater economic impact.

Just 4 corporations control 90% of the worlds global grain trade- they have stripped away diversification to a more streamlined just in time approach to food delivery. They’re all using the same trade routes- so when these trade routes are blocked or the delivery of grain is prevented as we’ve seen in Ukraine, a catastrophic event will ensue.

An analogy is similar to the banking crisis of 2008- all the banks relied on the same form of lending- property- when property collapsed all the banks collapsed - the food industry is very similar in many ways.

Someone above mentioned that we’re not yet near storming the GPO - maybe not in Ireland but we’ve seen what happened with a rush on toilet rolls throughout the lockdown so we’re not far off street riots as we’d like to think and in some countries throughout the world, their equivalent of the GPO will certainly be stormed very soon

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116399#Comment_119116399

One of the biggest drivers of property prices in the market at the moment is the State itself. Local Authorities are paying way above the market rate for apartments and houses for use by Approved Housing Bodies all over the country. They are awash with cash given the fact that the State has allocated literally billions of Euro to hoover up property in private market. This is the backbone of the Government's entire affordable housing strategy.

The demand for housing isn't going to dissipate. In fact, the pressure on Local Authorities is likely to increase if inflation continues and a recession is on the cards. It's hard to see how the State will not continue to have a huge interventionism position in the property market in the years ahead. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have committed vast quantities of money into housing. It's already budgeted for. Sinn Fein want to go even further.

Property prices are unlikely to collapse so long as the State continues to delve into the private market to satisfy its housing needs. Many people warned a decade ago that the State being reliant on the private market to satisfy its needs, instead of instructing Local Authorities to start direct building projects themselves, would result in a situation where the State itself is outbidding first time buyers and those in dire need of housing but fall outside the social housing thresholds. That's what is happening right now and it shows no signs of abating.

The State should have entered into long term multi-year contracts with developers to build affordable housing over the next couple of decades. The State could have achieved favourable contract conditions, including around pricing given the certainty they could offer developers around financing, but instead it's chosen to rely on the private market to satisfy its needs on a month to month basis.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116450#Comment_119116450

yes, this is very true, but this is a fundamental element of their political and economic ideologies, i.e. continual asset price inflation, particularly in relation to property and land, and at all costs, and it has worked, almost perfectly! public policy has been designed for this, again, at all costs, even at central bank level, hence policies such as qe! but this is now starting to collapse, for the reasons explained earlier. i suspect sf will try to revert this, or change this at least, but the odds are seriously stacked against them, its very possible they ll fail, and then i suspect we may shift to more extremes, such as the far left or right, probably the right, but who knows!

state interventionism is actually they only solution, as all other methods have failed, catastrophically, but successive governments must do their utmost to prevent further price inflation, and simply do whatever it takes to build, and build quickly, but this maybe impossible to do, but again, who knows

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116505#Comment_119116505

I agree with you about the State being pre-disposed to asset price inflation. It benefits existing property owners and whatnot, that's for sure. However I think a lot of it is down to just intransigence rather than successive Government's holding hard held ideological views on the matter. House price increases are hurting the Government currently in terms of popularity yet the same policies continue. I think a lot of it is down to the fact that they don't really know how to do anything different. Going back to the days of having the State directly involved in building through Local Authorities would be a massive policy change, it would require serious planning and have high risks. I just think if the policy change had been made ten years ago those risks and downsides would have been lower than the dysfunctional housing market that we currently have and all the untold damage it is causing society as a whole.

There are going to be a lot of confused people wondering why house prices aren't falling by big numbers if a recession does occur. Well, the answer is simple enough and you can already see it unfolding. Property developers are already sacling back construction projects, supply is likely to contract compared to what was forecast. Yet the State still needs to fulfill its social housing targets and will be a big player in chasing homes within that contracting supply. The money has already been allocated and budgeted for, Local Authorities have been given a blank cheque. House prices will continue to be inflated above what they should be if it was only private players involved in the market and if the State was satisfying its own needs by being directly involved in the construction of affordable homes.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116237#Comment_119116237

Some people seem to have this impression that the 80's were some sort of devastating apocalyptic wasteland of despair for everyone. While there were certainly less employment prospects around and many had to emigrate to find work, if and when you found a job here you could actually afford to buy a house AND look after a family on a very modest (even for the times) single wage. 

It was a very bleak time but you are correct. Its the normal way of things. The idea that full time working people need state subsidies to pay for a roof over their head is an aberration of design rather than nature. The market and government policy are created to bleed as much private profit as possible. When the policy makers are in on it we can only go that way. We subsidies the private builds we can't afford, then subsidies the customer/renter. Its a disaster of greed. When customers can't afford something the market has to adapt. Not so in housing. The tax payer is milked to pick up any slack.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116375#Comment_119116375

Nah, don't see any western democratic country going full out war with itself TBH.

Putin and other "strongmen" basically whipped the West into a frenzy the past decade with him stoking identity politics bullshít, when the full horrors of Ukraine are laid bar there will be no more tolerance for that fúckery, it's already started.

Again that comes down to individual people not allowing themselves to be so easily manipulated.

Ireland is a prosperous, safe, country, unidentifiable from a generation ago who have no sort of divisional politics, even if SF get in, the move to the centre will be swift.

Yeah, there is problems and they shouldn't be diminished, but if you were to believe the constant amplified constant negativity, we are all unemployed, hungry and homeless on the verge of civil war.

I think of all countries we have had our fill of war.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116381#Comment_119116381

Demand is flexible.

This is a good recent example from New Zealand. This article was written just over a year ago.

New Zealand’s 10-year housing crisis has worsened dramatically since the pandemic, with ultra-low interest rates and a faster-than-anticipated economic recovery compounding pre-existing issues of affordability and supply.

In Auckland and Wellington, the median price is now $1,100,000 – for the capital city, a 35% increase on year. But even small towns are feeling the heat. Last month, the national median house price rose by nearly 23% on year to $780,000.

Bindi Norwell, chief executive of the Real Estate Institute New Zealand (REINZ), says there are fewer houses on the market, selling for higher sums – fuelling investors’ fears of missing out, and ironically driving prices higher.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/20/can-you-help-me-the-quiet-desperation-of-new-zealands-housing-crisis#:~:text=A%20crisis%20dividing%20generations,issues%20of%20affordability%20and%20supply.

Now, this article was posted last week. Banks are predicting a 20% drop in house prices. And when banks are predicting it, it'll end up higher.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/new-zealand-banks-predict-20-drop-in-house-prices-over-next-year

So New Zealand has gone from chronic shortage to over supply in a year.

You can say things are different here but it can change here quick too. If you look at house prices over the last 16 years. There's only a period of about 4 years in total where house price movements were 5% or less. That means across 192 months, price movement year on year was only between 5% or -5% for 48 of those months. A soft landing is not easy. In 2019/2020 there was slower growth, even with 0% over 12 months at one stage. So what happened? Has demand increased massively since 2019? I know 2020 was the pandemic but demand was still there.

Mr_Jacko

Any idea when this so called "recession" will begin so I can load up on put options and make a lot of money??

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116804#Comment_119116804

Markets are way ahead of when recessions are officially announced.

You missed the easy money. Amazon are down 50% from their high for example. The NASDAQ is down 30%

There's still time though. I think it can drop another 10/15% from here!

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116237#Comment_119116237

My sister and her hubby managed to buy a three up, two down, in the 80's and all on his wage from a tyre factory job

You don't have to go back that far all, 110% mortgages been offered not so long ago.

You don't have to go too long either where the average wage would have got you some cracking properties.

We are at time now that correction is needed, probably will be overcorrected and then undercorrected and round and round we go.

I imagine your brother in law worked damn hard for his wage without the "normal" luxuries until he could afford them.

I also imagine the tyre factory fúcked off to some low base developing country at some stage?

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116952#Comment_119116952

He probably worked less than people work now. In fact, in those days most people worked to rule, in as much that they did their hours and didn't engage in the kind of bullshit presenteeism that's been a common feature of a lot of people during my working life.

As for "luxuries", they wanted for nothing and they had a family of four.

The job eventually went away during the latter half of the 90's, but he had no problem getting another one and by that stage they had paid off a substantial portion of their mortgage too.

The point is that all that was possible in the 80's on a single modest wage. It's not possible now.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116410#Comment_119116410

Christmass time people here will get a rude awkwning with food prices and as you said the 3rd world much like Sri Lanka now, will default due to the high dollar and will starve due to food commodity prices being astronomical.

I really do believe the food shortage comming will be scary. Farmers Journal done a survey nearly 80% of farmers in Ireland are spreading less fertiliser so therefore lower yields and less supply. This is the case all over Europe and even in America and Brazil. Couple these drastically lower yeilds with Russia blocking the grain out of Ukraine along with climate change and desertification of land, food supplies are going to be scarce.

The days of cheap food is over. Every centra bank is the option food price is linked to energy price and yes most of it is, but a serious shortage occurs food price inflation will spiral. Energy price inflation may fall but food price inflation will keep rising leaving the central bankers a hard task of taming it.

freemickey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108456#Comment_119108456

I was wrong about the increasing poverty, you're right, it's actually gone down ever so slightly. I thought the sl80/20 and gini measurements were backwards for a moment.

However, and not to be contrarian or sound ridiculous, there's just something that "feels" wrong about these statistics. It doesn't seem realistic to lived and observed experiences.

That aside, the country is wrecked. There's a latency to the outcome of it being wrecked that is happening right now, but it is wrecked nonetheless.

More than half of renting households rely on rent subsidies across the entire country. Banana's.

Here's a couple of stories from elsewhere..

“My 13 year old daughter has been suffering from nose bleeds and dizziness. I received a letter from Tullamore hospital putting her on the waiting list to be seen in 4.7 years time. 249 weeks to be exact. She will be 18.”

Another one relating to staff shortages..

"Mr O'Keeffe told politicians that the COG working group is examining short-term measures to help address the problems in the industry.

He said the group is looking at integrating Ukrainian workers in hospitality, and the international recruitment of staff into the Irish market, as well as building future skills."

Another one...

"I'm about to finish my Masters and I was offered a job in Accenture in Cherrywood last month (in office, no hybrid/remote offered). I accepted the offer initially thinking that of course I'd pay out the arse for rent but I'd at least be able to find something. I was wrong. I've been reaching out to landlords and letting agents and getting almost nothing in response. The deadline for signing my contract is coming up and I don't know if I can feasibly commute there everyday from my mam's house. What are my options here, lads? Might just emigrate"

Everyone I know has the constant mantra of "I don't know what to do" about nearly every goddamned thing. One couple I know just paid nearly 200 grand over the asking for, imo, a bog standard home. Others are considering having a child for the sheer sake of it increasing their odds of getting a social home. Homes near me are, inexplicably, filling up with people from all corners of the earth with nothing to do all day or night apparently.

There's too much to say. Absolutely nothing makes sense anymore. Nothing. It's like living in some alternate dimension where everything officially said is the complete and utter opposite of what you see and hear and know. The ecb saying there is no housing crisis in Ireland??

Anecdotes, policies, reports, statistics, it doesn't even matter anymore. It's as clear as the nose on your face that this country, and others, are in faeces so deep we may as well be balancing on the mid Atlantic rift.

Somebody mentioned that protests in the style of africa and south America are needed now, as in close entire cities down and lay down the law of the people.

This is rant territory now but I've had it up to my eyeballs. The misrepresentation of reality has become so extreme here that the fu*ker's may as well be lying straight to your face.

The place is wrecked. Wrecked beyond repair and the resentment is building by the second. It's not a recession that's coming, it's something else and I'm ready to jump in, more and more are by the day. It's like waiting for the spark in a lake of petrol.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117028#Comment_119117028

The point is that all that was possible in the 80's on a single modest wage. It's not possible now

And my point was up until relatively recently it still was. And still is TBF depending on flexibility.

It's different now though, by design and by unforeseen circumstances we have a supply issue, it is very much a sellers market which is being whipped up by frenzy too by the way, some way say they are due it though.

Bertie actually had the solution 20 odd years ago, decentralisation, it didn't go down well, apparently people thought we were China and not a tiny island you can drive the four corners of in half a day.

One good thing stemming from the pandemic is decentralisation is not only possible it's now preferable.

We have a great opportunity here, hopefully we don't fúck it up, but we probably will.

markw7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117407#Comment_119117407

Feels like this for me as well, hard to put your finger on it but it does kinda feel like humanity is sleep-walking off a cliff.

I used to love it in a general sense but I blame technology as a whole, for me it brings out the best and worst in us and worst is winning by some margin.

Watch some of Adam Curtis' documentaries if you wanna get really despondent/have your mind blown!

growleaves

Accenture have deals with landlords to put their people in accommodation. I'd imagine some other mncs do too.

freemickey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117684#Comment_119117684

The whole thing is one giant international con-job paraded as an economy.

Artificial wealth paraded as gnp and gdp, actual wealth hoovered up by a few, then it goes pop and everyone else is left holding the bill.

Inflate asset prices, homes, by making it a scarce commodity. They can't go knocking down other people's homes, that would be too obvious, so they increase the amount of people instead.

Simplicity itself. Encouraging and allowing migration into a housing crisis year after year is the game. It's that simple. People live in homes, too many people means money for those invested.

That simple simon con then trickles down to everything. "Oh balls, people can't even affotd to work jobs anymore because of housing costs so.....let's import even more cheaper labour as practical slaves!" Just look at some of the suggestions about Ukrainian refugees.

Have you ever thrown a dinner party, invited lots of people over but "forget" to buy food before they arrive? That's what the a*seholes running this con want you to believe, that it was a "mistake". Replace food with housing and there it is. Again and again.

Sick of it. A few people urinating over the majority of people of this country and telling them it's rain. Violence is coming over this, soon, and it's the architects of this con job that will be to blame for it.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117807#Comment_119117807

Violence is coming over this, soon, and it's the architects of this con job that will be to blame for it

When like?

freemickey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117859#Comment_119117859

Tuesday at 2.45pm.

Bring your noggin for a good bashing.

joseywhales

I hope that we have people engaged in rapidly exporting baby formula to the US. They have an emergency shortage and if there is one thing Ireland has a glut of , its dairy. We should be making deals there I hope., it would be nice to get a long term deal.

brickster69

India starting to restrict the export of more commodities

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-protectionist-moves-spark-concern-that-rice-may-be-next-target-122052601095_1.html?utm_source=SEO&utm_medium=HP

My recession indicator is Look how media telling lies about Russia and you will see how media telling lies about economy ! Inequality ? Those who believed in bright future which media was telling about will hit badly the those who did not believed will survive easy ! Recession started in 2019 ! And just Covid let survive many bussineses ! I dont care about shortage of food there will be plenty food in Ireland and Africa ! The media trying demonize Russia which will sell wheat to Africa taking Africa under own control throwing USA and France out there ! The governments of UK and Ireland trying hide own mistakes shouting that everything what happened in UK and Ireland is PUTIN fault not the English and Irish politicians ! Boris Johnson trying keep his seat the Irish policians trying keep them seats at second elections .For example Leo Varadkar in Davos said that he Does not belive recesion comming ! Here you could see what media will be singing in Ireland !