A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

dollylama

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698132#Comment_119698132

There's an energy credit which might suit cafes and restaurants or large energy users, but not so much office based companies. Plus, if it's like the covid supports, revenue will be still crawling up your hole this time next year making sure you didn't stiff the state of a euro .. the supports are nearly more hassle than they're worth

CeCe12

IMHO, hospitality is going to take a major hit in the next 6 months. People are reporting still seeing packed bars/ restaurants. Myself included.

However, we are still in the sentiment of "summer time". Extortionate energy bills are yet to be truly felt by households and businesses.

Tech is tanking, at a slow pace for now, banking in a similar way.

SME's will likely be overlooked as per (Government does not value their tax intake).

As a previous poster has pointed out, the American housing market is taking a dive.

dollylama

The truth is, the supports that were thrown around during covid (wage subsidies, vat warehousing, etc) companies need those now more than they did then. But we spent countless billions keeping good healthy companies closed during 2 years of lockdowns.. all to protect our **** show of a health service that now the kitty is empty, those healthy companies, wounded from 2 surreal years of no trade, find themselves being dealt a death blow by inflation and there's not a thing can be done

It'll be carnage in the new year.. many who make it that far won't be reopening on the far side

CeCe12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698179#Comment_119698179

I agree with you 100%. SME's are the backbone to our society.

The Government regularly devalues them.

Too much emphasis is placed on Multi national companies. They can pick up and leave whenever they want.

WhiteWalls

I was listening to David McWilliams podcast last week, the revenue MNC's contribute is insane.

The govt will throw money at SME's but how long can they keep doing it..

MaccaTacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694846#Comment_119694846

Not really 'well outside Dublin though is it?

brickster69

Greenhouses starting to close in the Netherlands due to costs. Also HAK is to temporarily halt production for 6 weeks.

https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1577150863654629381

https://www.gondola.be/nl/news/hak-stopt-productie-tijdelijk-door-hoge-energieprijzen

CeCe12

https://www.thejournal.ie/restaurants-energy-bills-5883276-Oct2022/

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698435#Comment_119698435

Was in Dublin city centre on Saturday for the first time in over a year, what an absolute tip. Businesses closed left right and centre and an abundance of other shops selling tat. No wall of money can stop this rot.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694527#Comment_119694527

Are they not? You may missed Poland demanding Germany to pay reparations, Italy and France border police shipping migrants like ping-pong from one country to another. Hype about "corruption" in Hungary and threats of freezing funds. Recent threats Von den incompetent made about Italy elections are far from EU values and solidarity.

I twisted nothing, When Austria switched off Italy it gave them opportunity to keep piling on reserves for themselves which as it happens was actually short lived as it seems that pipeline is closed now too.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697464#Comment_119697464

Ah Jaysus...no words

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698439#Comment_119698439

Dublin was fast becoming a tip during the boom years. Poor government at all levels.

brickster69

Talk of maybe a corona fund to be discussed as tensions over Germany's energy bailout announcement start to flare.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1577187029263142917

https://www.politico.eu/article/tensions-flare-over-the-eus-new-irresponsible-big-spender-germany/

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698633#Comment_119698633

Absolutely great, let's all come together and help bail out Germnay. People have short memories, they didn't look too favourably on Ireland when we were in a dire situation not too long ago.

Germany have no problem devaluing the Euro in order to bail themselves out, this devaluing will cause higher bonds in the likes of Italy etc which will need more printing of money and devaluing of the euro in order for the 'Anti Fragmentation tool' to control the PIGS bond prices.

All in all it just looks like an absolute shitshow for the Euro on the horizon.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698564#Comment_119698564

Absolutely but it's on another level now. It's grim beyond belief.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698978#Comment_119698978

It really really isn't. Talk about hyperbolic

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699374#Comment_119699374

I like Dublin city and the atmosphere around it, loved living there too but it was just the shear cost of it all that was killing myself and my partner. I actually find I rather it even more so now as I am not living there anymore and if we head up their every so often we are less inclined to be annoyed with being ripped off as opposed to when we were living up their all the time and getting screwed for everything.

It is a shame it has turned so expensive because it is a decent city.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698681#Comment_119698681

Solidarity is only one way with Germany.

Which is why the fact inflation there is so high and rising is going to be a problem for us all.

Interest rates in the Euro zone are set for Germany's needs, not the majority of the Euro zone economy.

brickster69

PPI up 5.1% on the month, a big jump that ! I was hoping this would continue slowing down a bit but looks like inflation is going to rise higher into the New year.

https://twitter.com/keyeventrisk/status/1577247538154987520

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700251#Comment_119700251

That really is a terrible indicator of what's coming down the line, staggering 5.1% higher than last month.

Danzy

So much for inflation moderating next year.

You would have to expect that to be feeding in for a long time to come.

rob316

With the euro collapsing against dollar, it looked bad for chinese imports into Europe but spot rates have fallen way back down from the 2021 high of 20k for a 40ft container to 6k. Still 3 times higher than pre 2021.

Jonnyc135

Picture this scenario, Central banks continue to increase interest rates, something in the financial system breaks due to the higher interest rates and a global financial crisis ensues. This may be brought on collectively by the extremely high corporate debts, SME sector world wide taking a hammering, bond prices falling, discretionary spending down, consumer sentiment down and of course a liquidity crisis.

Just say this happens in the not too distant future and inflation rates are still at 10% mostly due to food, electricity and energy prices which even with a recession wont drop that much so inflation will still be stubbornly high, when central banks flood the economies with money, lower interest rates to 0% in order to bail out the system (which they will it will be their only option) and pensions, inflation will be starting at a baseline of 10%, therefore adding fuel to the fire and devaluing our currency may tip us into Turkey territory, remember Netherlands inflation ATM is 17%, Turkey had 17% inflation in June 2021, now its at crazy numbers.

I am not saying that Europe is like Turkey, but if the scenario above happens with inflation already at 10% what's to stop us getting stuck in an inflation loop that could bring us to 20% inflation and the Netherlands to 30% inflation, especially with a devalued euro against the dollar and thereby importing inflation.

Scary thoughts especially when the bureaucrats running the EU and ECB are so out of touch and inept.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700639#Comment_119700639

I think if the current rates of inflation continue for another 2 years or so we will see WW3

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700639#Comment_119700639

Turkeys hyperinflation is largely due to Erdogan insisting on interest rate cuts in spite of inflation - which only makes things worse.

Increasing rates in Europe will not cause hyperinflation unless the eurozone totally collapses and starts printing money weimar style - that is incredibly unlikely.

purplefields

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698520#Comment_119698520

What happens in 29 days?

brickster69

Rumours OPEC considering 2 million barrels / day cut to oil output.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-OPEC-Considers-2-Million-Bpd-Production-Cut.html

Strike action in France is leading to supplies drying up and prices rising.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/carburant-de-nombreuses-penuries-d-essence-dans-les-stations-service-en-france-20221003

brickster69

Strong words from some senator in the states against OPEC. Just one bloke but they have some of the biggest oil reserves in the world so why not just increase production themselves ?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/energy/ro-khanna-saudi-arabia/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNN&utm_term=link&utm_content=2022-10-04T11%3A29%3A33

They should have gone ahead and embraced the plan in the 70s to put solar panels in orbit rather than embracing neoliberalism.

Isn't the US involved in enough conflicts before going ahead and looking to start another one with one of the biggest oil exporters in the world. All taking action against Saudi Arabia will do. Is push them closer into the arms of both Russia and China.

But I guess the Americans need constant war to distract people from their issues at home and keep the military industrial complex in profit.

Jonnyc135

UN calling on the Fed to stop hiking rates and strengthening the dollar as it will cause a global economic recession. Seems like nearly every major body thinks we should QE and lower rates in order to keep the status quo at the detriment of the normal average joe, as his/hers wage is not keeping up and QE/low interest rates only inflates asset prices and creates even greater wealth divides.

They will find it hard pacify the people if they go down this route, offering helicopter money to pacify the people with inflation already high and entrenched will not work it will only cause insane inflation rates.