When is the recession coming?

drserious4

A recession is always coming eventually of course, but when is the next one going to hit? My pessimistic hunch is the winter of 2022. This will be when the fuel prices will really start to bite and could be the start of a downward trajectory.

razorblunt

It’s just turning the corner down the end of your road now. He’ll be with you in 5.

hayse

No recession the country are booming. Sure the lads on the dole are earning 14k tax free.

sam t smith

Should be a soft landing.

Still stihl waters 3

We seem to be sailing awfully close to the wind with a while now, production, fuel, labour prices are rocketing, how long before food starts to rise significantly as diesel really starts to impact food production and haulage costs, construction costs gone through the roof, labour shortages and put all that on top of the cost of covid and our cead mile failte to all the new refugees you'd have to wonder how we won't see a recession shortly

drserious4

The two-year shutdown of the economy and the unbelievable spending levels of the government were bound to lead to a recession, I am just surprised it has taken this long.

hayse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099402#Comment_119099402

Sinn Fein will get us through it.

Jim_Hodge

It ain't happening any time soon. A recession begins after 2 successive quarters of negative economic growth. Prices are rising, inflation is high etc but we are still in growth.

drserious4

They won't of course, and I personally won't be voting for them, but its hard to blame any disaffected young person with no prospect of owning a home giving them a go after a century of FF, FG and LAB. They will be more of the same though, with a few extra handouts.

drserious4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099448#Comment_119099448

That you Bertie?

screamer

Don’t hold your breath, there’s a helluva lot different than what crashed the world economies last time. I don’t see a massive recession coming, regardless of price rises, people are determined to enjoy life after the pandemic lockdowns so I don’t see the knee jerk reaction to spending etc.

maestroamado

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058246951/when-is-the-recession-coming

I expect a bigger problem will be "brain drain" i know a good few people with good jobs not happy here...

SuperBowserWorld

The booms are getting bustier.

The busts are getting boomier.

Don't upset the apple tart.

mikeybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099495#Comment_119099495

Sure by 2030 you'll own nothing and still be happy

brokenangel

Tomorrow

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099464#Comment_119099464

That’s the problem; people will come back from the holidays and the Garth Brooks madness in Sept/Oct and finally realize just what is happening to prices for winter, also foodstuff will be a lot more expensive, and interest rates will be higher, hitting everyone on a tracker - housing market will be wobbling and even our govt will not be able to save it.

making matters worse, govt borrowing expenses will be higher so no more free money to throw around

SuperBowserWorld

Ah, the good old days

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099463#Comment_119099463

Hilarious 🙄 That pointless retort lost any impact years ago.

screamer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099486#Comment_119099486

People don’t leave good jobs. I suspect you mean good paying jobs which people are leaving in their droves due to being totally overworked.

maestroamado

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099557#Comment_119099557

The jobs are good but they are paying big rent + car and little prospects of getting a place to call home... I did not hear big complaints of the work just no prospect long term... The other side they go abroad for less salary so kinda trapped...

Mrs OBumble

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099402#Comment_119099402

It'd be one way to fix the obesity problem.

touts

Inflation in double digits (because central bankers have been printing massive amounts of money for the last few year)

Interest rates touching double digits (because central bankers don't know any other way to fight inflation)

Energy crisis looming with gas and oil shortages due to Russia invading Ukraine and the green agenda to shut down fossil fuels being 15 years ahead of technology to replace fossil fuels. They aren't wrong (see the next point) but the renewable tech is still not ready.

Food crisis next autumn/winter due to Russia invading Ukraine and really bad harvests due to climate change and most importantly a lack of fertilizer. We only sustained 7 billion people thanks to fertilizer. That's a huge problem.

Supply chains are screwed beyond recognition thanks to Brexit (which hasn't really hit yet) Trump Trade Tariffs (which are still being recovered from) and China locking down its major ports and factories due to Covid.

People in debt for Cryptocurrencies that are turning out to have less value than tulip bulbs.

Housing and rental market is totally disfunctional because in our infinite wisdom we scrapped the construction industry for a decade on the populist belief that all those ghost estates and apartment blocks will never sell. Well guess what. They sold. And now people can't afford to buy or rent the few properties that are available.

We are going to have a populist left wing government in two years who cannot possibly fulfill anything close to their promises without nationalising and seizing private assets.

Basically right now I'd take a recession because a great depression is increasingly likely.

Still stihl waters 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099608#Comment_119099608

Starve them into being healthy

Mad_maxx

a recession is always coming but if someone predicts when , its pure dumb luck , everyone believed we would have a recession two years ago

riclad

When interest rates go up and inflation rises it usually results in a recession , company's hold back on investments, consumers stop buying luxury products, yes brexit is causing supply chain problems in the UK as company's have to deal with new EU regulations and import taxs. In the 70s it was war in the middle east, now its war in the Ukraine. Now due to sanctions company's can't buy products from russia. The tech boom maybe over, tech stocks are falling. At least America can print dollars, other country's don't have that choice. The general USA stock market boom is over but many company's in the USA are finding it hard to recruit workers

The crypto market was fuelled by tech bros, also 1naive investors, well I suppose I should buy digital coins because there's so much hype about it. I read a long article about digital currencys, it said most of the money in crypto is money invested by criminals, drug dealers, oligarchs, hackers who need to get paid, the only way to pay a Russian hackers is using bitcoin, digital currency, buying goods with crypto is extremely ineffecient, just use PayPal or a credit cards

I don't know if we will have a recession like the 70s or the 80s. The price of energy oil gas is rising in every country. People now have the option of working from home instead of emigrating. I think no politican is talking about this, but I think climate change is happening right now, California , states in the USA are facing drought, water shortages. This is going to increase the cost of food production.

The global economy gives in cycles boom bust and recession usually caused by energy crisis inflation and a rise in interest rates . Third world country's are facing a crisis as they rely on acess to a supply of cheap food like wheat grain bread and other basic items

Shortage of fertilisers is likely to increase the cost of basic items like bread cereals

Right now North Korea is facing a crisis as covid spreads thru the population. It has only basic health services when compared with Western country's it has refused to accept vaccines from the UN or South Korea

hayse

As long as we have people who choose to not the work there will be council houses to be built which will keep the construction industry rolling.

I remember having a job interview with one of the biggest building suppliers in the country in 2008. I asked what their plans were for the coming recession.

He was visibly upset that I would even suggest such a thing. 12 months later they were posting their losses and closing down branches.

I didn't get the job which was probably just as well.

Trigger Happy

Irelands growth is going to be 4.8% this year so unlikely there will be a technical recession until at least later in 2023. But what there will be is a worsening of the cost of living crisis.

Prices will keep on increasing- fueled by supply chain issues, Brexit, labor shortages and oil/gas/grain shortages. Interest rates increases for the first time in a long time will surprise and hurt people too.

Income levels will not keep up and more people will fall in to to poverty or have to cut back and start making hard choices. There will be pressure on the government to spend cash from the money tree, like they did during covid, but servicing the national debt in an environment of increasing yields will be harder and harder.

So tough times ahead regardless of whether or not it's classified as a recession or not.

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058246951/when-is-the-recession-coming

No-one can predict what fuel prices will be in 2 weeks, let alone next winter.

There's no credit bubble, we're near full employment, tax receipts are very strong, exports are very strong. Discretionary consumer spending is slowing, but that alone will not cause a recession.

There most likely will be a slowdown in growth, but wages will grow and the purchasing power will return to an equilibrium. In a way, purchasing power got ahead of itself with increased incomes but no increase in prices and now inflation is catching up after years of stagnation

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101263#Comment_119101263

No. That might be the case if inflation was driven solely through wages, but it isnt. Energy costs, raw materials costs, fertiliser costs - all out of our control, and all rising significantly. Wage increases cannot compensate for the increases in prices brought on by these factors

Horn_of_Africa

Remember all those plonkers that said the government should borrow more because interest rates were so low, "sure it's free money" they said.

It's seemed to be beyond their comprehension that you still have to pay the money back and that interest rates will eventually rise making it much more difficult to refinance the debt.

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101312#Comment_119101312

If you read the sinn fein manifesto, money grows on trees - at least that's the only explanation for the spending that they have proposed. But I'm sure they will trot out various excuses so that their flock will not blame them.

There will be a slowdown and there will be a slowdown in corporation tax. The pharma and tech super profits of 2021 will not be repeated and with many of them reporting here, that leads to less tax and therefore less spending, but the conditions simply are not there for a recession*.

*conditions can change

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101312#Comment_119101312

It's even more pernicious than that because the borrowed money was dumped into the economy helping to spur the inflation which has made interest rate rises necessary.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101312#Comment_119101312

Governments do not pay any money back. They endlessly refinance and only ever pay back interest. Its all built on premise that GDP (and ability to pay interests payments) will increase forever.

If you can borrow money at a cheap enough rate and invest in something capital that will give enough of a GDP boost (railways, ports, energy infrastructure) then you would be mad not to do it, as the increase in GDP will more than cover the interest payments. Up to now we had near 0% rates and should have taken advantage of it.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101408#Comment_119101408

I'm not sure how SF can cop all the blame.

In February 2020 people were giving out about Sinn Fein and their magic money tree.

Then in March 2020 onwards FF/FG implemented MMT on a *massive* scale.

Now they've wound that down, are people pretending that MMT is a left-wing only phenomenon? Because it clearly isn't in practice.

FF/FG just do spend like drunken sailors, whatever the rationalisations ("it's an emergency")

In fact all over the world centrist/right parties showed that their alleged opposition to MMT was wholly feigned or at least dropped when expedient. MMT is a completely bi-partisan, universal policy.

Horn_of_Africa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101462#Comment_119101462

The government does pay the money back. They borrow money and pay back prior debt. That's paying the money back. Just because they have a new loan doesn't mean the previous loan wasn't paid back.

The government tends to waste money, and much of the borrowings are not invested. Also, I would be very cautious about assuming government borrowings adds to GDP greater than the rate of interest, even at low rates.

Horn_of_Africa

The MMT enthusiasts also told us that all of this money printing wouldn't cause inflation. It's baisc economics, vast money printing programmes cause inflation.

marieholmfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101945#Comment_119101945

In what sense does the government tend to waste money?

What's your benchmark?

marieholmfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101463#Comment_119101463

SF can't really cop any blame as they didn't do any borrowing.

Horn_of_Africa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102005#Comment_119102005

They're inefficent. As an example look at the situation with the Children's Hospital and the spiralling costs.

Amadan Dubh

The big "S" State definition of a recession is different to the man on the street's definition.

As pointed out in a good post earlier in the thread, the situation we are currently in, which was a culmination of particular policy interventions the last decade, could to many people be a sort of recession, in that they are steadily getting poorer and finding it harder to make ends meet (due to skyrocketing living costs).

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101945#Comment_119101945

From a practical point of view no they do not pay it back. They "service" the debt - i.e. they get a new loan to pay off the old, and then pay any interest that was due on the old loan. The total debts on government balance sheets seldom reduce, only as a % of GDP.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101312#Comment_119101312

Actually governments borrow by issuing debt. If the debt has a fixed (or zero) coupon then once issued, change in rates do not make any difference to the amount owed for that instrument. It would have an impact if they do need to roll it over but they are supposed to have a well managed maturity profile

marieholmfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102037#Comment_119102037

How efficiently run are equivalent private sector contracts?

Pussyhands

One of the weirdest comments I see online (not boards) is the "there's no recession coming, sure there's full employment!"

There's often full employment before recessions.

I personally believe not only is a recession going to happen, but we need one. The economy is off balance imo. We have too many things not right with it. Costs are too high. Can't get staff in a lot of sectors. Housing is too expensive to allow lower wage workers to work the lower wage jobs.

CrookedJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119102046#Comment_119102046

You can't just invent a new definition for words, especially which you're inventing a mythical "Man on the street" and attributing the definition to him.

Words have meanings, whether you like the government or not.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101226#Comment_119101226

Well really that would be a recession then.

If inflation is 8% and GDP is 5%. Probably not technically a recession but technicals don't matter anyways, only matters what happens in peoples pockets.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119099958#Comment_119099958

I think in normal times you could say that but these are not normal times. Your comment would be fine when people were talking about recessions in 2018 but when the economies are like they are now, makes it easier to predict.

Jerome Powell has said they're going to get inflation back at 2% and they won't stop until they do. He said there are far too many job vacancies now meaning people can job hop to get bigger wages thus driving inflation. He basically implied they are going to destroy a lot of the vacancies and how are they going to target only the vacancies? They can't. Amazon/Walmart in the US have said they hired too many people already.

Within the past year Powell has gone from Inflation is Transitory -> Inflation is more longer term -> we're going to have a soft landing -> we're going to have a softish landing and many factors are out of our control

DellyBelly

I don't know how people who engage in moaning about the economy do not commit suicide....it's booming guys..no need for the negativity

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119101462#Comment_119101462

Ponzi like scheme in other words. If households ran their family finances the way our governments run the state finances, we'd all be in dire, dire trouble. That's why the 'we all went out and partyed' line after the celtic tiger crash was so insulting. Some people borrowed excessively whilst ordinary sane citizens underwrote their losses. If we followed the government strategy, we should all borrow way beyond our means and let the whole place collapse in due course. Someone else will always pick up the tab, won't they?

rossie1977

Most economists as of late April have Irelands GDP to grow by ~8% in 2022 and ~6% in 2023 so a recession is unlikely anytime soon.