York Dante / May Festival Wed 11th - Fri 13th May '22

Konny Rool

Three days racing in a row - guess that counts as a 'Festival' 🤣

Plenty of quality racing for fans of 'proper' horses. Me, as a punter, I just like to try and pick winners - handicaps are my favourite races overall :D

#First look is going to be at the 6f sprint on Wednesday:

2.25 Churchill Tyres Handicap

The contenders:

1 Summerghand (19) 20/1: Out of form, going is 'good' atm, think he wants good to firm at this level to have any chance. Big field is a negative going on his runs in the last year, but so too have the majority of his runs in that time period been poor. Leave out of calculations.

2 Nomadic Empire (6) 7/1: A CD winner on good ground (gd-gd to firm in places), came 4th over CD in October on gd to sft-sft in places going. A respectable comeback run at Ripon in April over the minimum. Just about shades favouritism atm, but not for me.

3 Bielsa (12) 14/1: Has come 5th twice over C&D on gd to soft, and soft going - both in big fields. A winner in a big field Class 2 handicap at Ayr last September. Didn't do so well in his three races after that Ayr win, but they were a group race & 2 listed ones. lto he came 4th in a Class 3 handicap, but can draw a line through that, as was an unsuitable 7f trip, and on soft going. A sterling e/w bet overall. ✔️

4 Just Frank (4) 18/1: 7 months absence to overcome, probably wants softer going. flopped in two big-field 6f handicaps the last twice, including one over CD. Dismiss. Reassess that 'dismiss' if somehow the rains come, and it's proper soft or close to heavy going. ? ✔️ ? A look at the forecast tells me that it's mainly going to be sunny there for the next few days - don't see any downpours forecast.

5 Punchbowl Flyer (15) 16/1: Has only won once on ground with the going either good (with no soft at all in the description), or firmer, when winning a lowly Class 5 at Brighton way back in August '19 at Brighton. Won a big-field 16 runner Class 3 6furlongs handicap at Haydock last May, when making most of the running, and leading on his 'own side' for the first four furlongs. Haydock is a stiffer test than York. Has no chance on ground better than soft here. Even if the rains come, he'll still likely need his own way out front - unlikely, very very unlikely. Forgeddabouthim.

6 Dakota Gold (21) 14/1: Has won thrice at the course, but two of those wins were over 5furlongs. Drawn 21 of 22. Dropping down the weights and appears to be on the downgrade. Won a Group3 at the course in Oct '20 on soft ground when making all. That was a seven horse race though. Most of his runs in close to three years have been in Class 1 listed grade races. Not incapable of making all. Drawn on 'the wings' another big negative for me. Overall I'm struggling to make a case for the Dods horse.

7 Mr Lupton (11) 16/1: Last year's winner. Getting on now at nine. I'm on the fence here - mainly due to the 7mths absence. Unless the ground is worse than good to soft, I'm keeping him onside ✔️

8 Mr Wagyu (9) 10/1: Is drawn in nine, likes to make all or track leaders. Likely be the latter in a 22 runner affair. A bit of an enigma imo, has several wins, but has never won when rated in the 90s (is rated 98). Place claims at the very best. I just can't see him get his nose in front. Too short to be on anyone's shortlist.

9 Venturous (5) 16/1: Multiple winner, with the majority of them on the AW Tapeta surface. A CD winner last July on good to firm in a 14 runner affair, but the time was poor. Is not getting any younger at nine. Tom Marquand is 2 from 2 on this lad. Those were over 5f on the AW at Newcastle. Good luck if you can make a case for him - I can't.

10 Makanah (18) 18/1: A good comeback run at Musselburgh over the minimum in April when finishing fourth, and was well backed too. Has had very few runs over 6furlongs for a 7 yr old. Could just as easy go off at double his current price I feel. Not enough data over the 6f trip to conclusively rule Julie Camacho's horse out. He won't be seeing any of my money, and I strongly suspect he'll be found wanting here.

11 Count D'orsay (2) 12/1: All his five wins have come over five. Very little 6f form. Trying to look into the future, and, at best, in the form description, I'm seeing unable to challenge, or, barring that 'weakened' . Won't be troubling the judges for the major places.

12 Premier Power (14) 25/1: An 8 month absence, first run for Tim Easterby since leaving Varian's yard (still in same ownership). Sports a first-time tonguestrap here. Lightly raced for a five year old, with only the nine runs. Two wins from way back in 2020 and 2019 on the AW, at Lingfield and Kempton, with them both on Standard/Slow going over 6fs. Came 2nd at Newmarket on turf on his first ever run, when running over 6furlongs on good ground. His third, fourth, and fifth runs on turf were also his last three runs on grass. Can't see any merit in any of them. Sherlock Holmes might be able to make a case for him, but on all known form I can't. Hope I'm not wrong

13 (8) Strike Red 18/1: Is likely to be held up. Has a tendency to be slowly away, or fractious at the start. Even if he does put up a decent showing, I think he'll be unlucky in running/unable to find/get through the gaps. Don't concern yourselves with throwing away your dockets - just don't bother writing them out 😃

14 (10) Pendleton 18/1: One win at 6f on the AW, two over five on turf - both over 5f on soft, with one at York. Is likely to be off the bridle for a lot of this race. If he can latch on to something and sees daylight, then I feel he's capable of running a big race. Has gone well before in big fields at this level without winning. Worth an each way bet.. ✔️

15 (16) Bergerac 8/1: Is the overall marginal 2nd favourite in this. Is only four years and is very consistent overall. Is a CD winner from September on good to firm in a Class 3. I would say he's only had the one similar test to Wednesday's one when he finished 14th in the Silver Cup at Ayr last September. I wouldn't read much into that one run though. Tom Eaves takes the ride, and though he's married (?) or engaged to Ryan's daughter, I'd consider Kevin Stott to be Ryan's main jockey, and it's of definite interest that Stott rides the bigger priced Bielsa in this. Not on my shortlist, but I can't rule out the Jersey detective here. ??

16 (22) Woven 10/1: Overall form is uninspiring. Two course runs, including a win over seven, and a fourth in this last year. His two comeback runs were very promising. Good or good to soft ground should be fine. You'd be foolish to discount him on account of his relatively short price, although that does have to be taken into consideration. All things considered, he gets a deserved 'tick' from me. ✔️

17 (7) Aberama Gold 20/1: Came 8th in this last year on good to soft rated 102 - is down to 88 nowadays. Won the Rockingham over C & D in 2019. Hasn't won since December 2020. His best efforts since then have been two seconds. I might be shrugging my shoulders after the race, but even with SDS on top, I'm not seeing it.

18 (17) Embour 33/1: The 7yr old is going here off the back of an eight month racecourse absence. Came 7th in this last year off 6lbs higher. Absence shouldn't be a problem. He was drawn low last year, so maybe he'll have better luck this time. Came 6th in the Great St Wilfrid handicap at Ripon last August, when was marginally unlucky. If it were to turn soft that would be a massive negative, but as things stand, he's an outsider with more than a decent e/w squeak ✔️

19 (3) Boogie Time 33/1: Has a low weight which will be offset even further by Rhona Pindar's 7lb claim. Will likely try to make all. Would probably need good to firm going for his 'try make all' tactics to be seen to best effect, and since I can't rule him out, and against my better judgement, it's a tick he gets from me atm ✔️

20 (20) Asadjumeirah 11/1: Have never heard of this 4yr old colt of Antony Brittain before. This fella is short enough, and may shorten even more. Had his first run on turf for the best part of a year when winning over 6f at Thirsk lto in a Class 3 handicap. The race was ran in a fast time, but the first six home could have been covered with a blanket. Will only be his third run in a Class 2, and, in the other two runs in that grade he finished third and fifth at Wolves and Lingfield. Should it rain, I don't think juice in the ground would bolster whatever minimal chance I feel he has here. Plenty of reasons to oppose - not least the short odds - so it's a no from me.

21 (1) Wobwobwob 12/1: Has been running over 7 and 8 furlongs for the better part of a year and a half until his latest one. Came 4th at Thirsk over 6f in the race Asadjumeirah won. I want to be against Keatley's 4yr old overall, but, and I know that it was over 7f's, but he absolutely hosed up at the course last May in a Class 3. That was on good to soft, and he was well on top just inside the final 2fs. A bit of a stretch to equate that form to how a 6f race may pan out. I'm reluctantly giving him a tick cos I can't rule him out ✔️

22 (13) Devilwala 28/1: Has had several trainers, been racing in Group and listed races, ran over 6fs three times as a two yr old. He won the very first race he had, and that was over 6fs at Haydock, then he came 2nd at York in the Gimcrack over that same trip. Has raced over 7f and a mile mostly since then, and over 10fs once. Am pure confused as to what he's doing racing here. Am at a loss, so it's a no from me.

Have given 8th of these beasts a ✔️ and them are the ones I'll concentrate on.

#I might amend/edit/requote etc if going/thoughts change, but I doubt it. Took me long enough to look at race and put a few thoughts down 😁

Good luck to all who are fans of quality races, and anyone who likes a punt :D

Konny Rool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058245176/york-dante-may-festival-wed-11th-fri-13th-may-22

These seven 'made the grade'

3 Bielsa (12) 14/1 16/1 NB

7 Mr Lupton (11) 16/1: 16/1

14 (10) Pendleton 18/1 18/1

16 (22) Woven 10/1 12/1

18 (17) Embour 33/1: 50/1

19 (3) Boogie Time 33/1: 28/1

21 (1) Wobwobwob 12/1: 12/1

All these backed each way 6 places

These ✔️ / ? / possibles didn't make it

4 Just Frank (4) 18/1:

15 (16) Bergerac 8/1:

good luck all, especially my good pals j@utis , pottokblue & leffesem :D But everyone else an all !! 😁

For once a year/rarely venture into bookies types - If ye're happening to be in a betting shop, drop the word 'Knavesmire' (another name/nickname for York racecourse) subtly (or 'connily' 😃, as some say 😉) into a convo (for this to work ye'd need a mate wit yis 😃) , so as the regulars might hear, and therefore think "there goes someone who doesn't know nothing (or nowt) about punting" BUT, and it's 'key' here, don't remain 'static' in whatever shop, lest one of the regulars tries to engage on a moderately knowledgeable level - then ya could be found wanting 🙂

Okay Konny, time to dial it down a bit now.. If ya keep going like that, then questions may be asked 😃 Just like the 'advice' - yeah right - they give punters; 'never' 'never' and all that complete + utter rubbish that they absolutely don't want ya to adhere to 😒

The excitement builds - will we see the Derby winner?? How much of a monkey's do I not give! 😂

😁

Konny Rool

Thursday 1.50 Paddy Power 5f Class2 Hcap

1 (9) Good Effort 12/1: Never won, and only once raced at the trip on turf over 5f. Flopped once in a quality race over the minimum at Goodwood last July. Been racing in Meydan a lot over 6 on dirt and turf, from what I can see. Obliged to discount. Was 16s at one stage.

2 (7) Copper Knight 6/1: Won this the last two years, not getting younger at eight. Has a high rating of 104. There's only so many times a horse can race 'off an absence' so hard to gauge re fitness etc after winter layoffs; does normally seem to need a couple of prep runs to come good, but has just had the one this year. Will have his fans, but may fall short in this 2022 renewal.

3 (11) Raasel 7/2 : This Mick Appleby 5yr old is ultra ultra consistent on turf, is improving all the time. The trainer will likely have gone through this with a fine toothcomb to get the tactics right. The 'Doyler' on top. Looks the likely winner to me.

4 (1) Bedford Flyer 10/1 : Won a Class 3 making all last May when rated 90. Is now rated 100. Hitting the crossbar is his best hope, and his lto run at Ripon inspires zero confidence. Little or no chance if trying to lead from pillar to post in this, which would give him a chance. Not even an e/w hope.

5 (8) Mountain Peak 8/1: I'm struggling to have an opinion on this fella. Can win on top of the ground over stiff 5f races at places like Haydock, and has put up fast winning times at Newmarket and Ascot. Is rated 99 and 96 is the highest he's won off. Has been out of form for mostly the last year. His 2nd at Newbury lto was somewhat of a return to form, but unlikely enough to feature here. Overall I have to be against.

6 (6) Jawwaal 8/1: A long layoff, seven yrs old, only managed 7th in this last year, when last he tackled C&D. Has never featured in the 7 or so times he's been to the course, in races which included the minimum trip, the extended 5f trip, and 6f. If he wins I won't be giving up punting, but he won't win.

7 (3) Alligator Alley 8/1: Won a listed race for Joseph here back in August '19. Was off for about 1.5yrs before he had his first run for O'Meara, which saw him come third at Wolves - was pretty much out of form in his last few races for O'Brien. The clever money says 'oppose' , but stranger things have happened. O'Meara is a dab hand at getting a tune out of others cast-offs. Perhaps not this time is my verdict, although has seen money.

8 (4) Digital 8/1: Lightly enough raced for a marginally above average handicapper, but is only 4. Winner on the AW in a Southwell Class2, and in lower grades at Musselburgh and Ripon, on soft and good to soft. Even a successful raindance wouldn't sway me towards his chances. Is not incapable of going well on good ground, and can boast a 2nd over C&D last August under Saffia. Will leave ratings out of it as is a young horse. EW claims at best I feel.

9 (10) Zargun 12/1: Easy to dismiss. Has no chance on all known form. Will likely be a nr I feel. Even if the Heavens open up, it's a 'crossbar job' at the very best. One of two Scott Dixon has here.

10 (13) Ready Freddie Go 12/1 : A multiple winner at Thirsk with a Class 3 and three Class 4s to his name there. Is only four. Has only ever attempted a Class2 once, and that was at Catterick where he had no luck. Has had a few attempts at six which further blots his copybook, as doesn't seem to stay that trip. Easy enough to dismiss if you wanted to - I don't. Am liking his lto run at Thirsk a lot. An outsider with more than a squeak.

11 (12) Strong Power 12/1 : Another e/w pick for me. A five yr old and will forget about his time at George Scott's yard. Has done well since going to Alice Haynes yard. Seems to be a hold-up horse nowadays, has little turf form for his latest trainer (none actually) , but, while he may found wanting at this level, I'm liking a lot of his 5f Lingfield runs. Might have been found wanting when stepped up in grade the last few times at Lingfield, but it's very very hard to make up ground, if behind, at the last bend there. Will back him each way.

12 (2) Fine Wine 9/1: Has only ever won on the AW. Has had enough goes over 5 on turf (mainly on good to soft, but one on good and another on good to firm) to suggest he's not up to this. Was a bit unlucky at Goodwood on top of the ground two runs back when finishing fifth in a Class 2. Not a straw I'm clutching at. Looks underpriced anyway. Has seen money - was 14s at one stage, good, now I can rule Scott Dixon's (also has Zargun) horse out on 'value' grounds as well 😁

13 (5) Mejthaam 20/1 : New trainer and owner. Hasn't raced since September. Won a Class 4 at Nottingham last August making all. I'd imagine this is some sort of a prep race for Nigel Tinkler's horse, who's the only female in the line up. Keep an eye on her future entries perhaps, but waste no time headscratching - surely has no chance here.

#Prices taken from BF Sportsbook - may be different elsewhere.

Verdict:

Raasel - win

Ready Freddie Go - e/w

Strong Power - e/w

last thoughts on some 'noteworthy' ones

Copper Knight might run well, but price is short. Alligator Alley's wellbeing/capability has to be taken on trust. Have no time for Scott Dixon's 'shenanigans' - despite the money and his unlucky Goodwood run, am not liking Fine Wine. Digital I don't think is worth an e/w bet as price is short and hard to see him going better than placing here.

😊 Good Luck !

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042340#Comment_119042340

3 Bielsa (12) 14/1 16/1 NB

7 Mr Lupton (11) 16/1: 16/1

14 (10) Pendleton 18/1 18/1

16 (22) Woven 10/1 12/1

18 (17) Embour 33/1: 50/1

19 (3) Boogie Time 33/1: 28/1

21 (1) Wobwobwob 12/1: 12/1

All these backed each way 6 places

_____________________________________________________

If ya'd kept your powder dry til today Konny, you'd have gotten waay better prices on most of em ! 😂 - not funny, i know

am on Bielsa meself ! hon Stotty 🤣

I see the going at York is good for today and also tomorrow, but good-good to soft in places for Friday 😏 - per the Irish Racing site,,

can they predict the future? ,, or is there perhaps already 'juice in the ground' this poster would opine - not good if the going is on 'soft side of good' today 😒

this craic would sicken ya, if so 😒

Friday 1.50 York

decs not in yet, but these are the seven!!! (whaat?) i'm gonna concentrate on

Daytona Lady , Jumbeau , Lost Angel , Miami Girl , Miss American Pie , Pillow Talk , Primrose Ridge

A few of these likely not be declared - will narrow it down to three max ! hopefully 😃

akelly02

You really are talking to yourself , arent you ?

Konny Rool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044902#Comment_119044902

Think they're all declared leffesem, good luck ''narrowing them down" 🙂

Plasandrunt

I thought this too...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119048346#Comment_119048346

Couldn't do it Konny, mebbe go e/w on em all for shrapnel, if can get 4 or 5 plcs

finglashoop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044971#Comment_119044971

its like **** inception

Francie Barrett

3:35 Stradivarius well beaten in its last two outings with Johnny G acknowledging that he's in decline. Search for a Song with a 6lb allowance surely only needs some very minor improvement to win here, already has the benefit of a run 2 weeks ago and should scoot in I reckon.