Gas price on the way up

DaSchmo

I wasn't certain where to post this - also could be duped so mods deal with if necessary

With the ESB noting that it is paying 16 times as much for gas on the wholesale market in one year - how long is this going to take to filter through to the end user? Obviously this has an impact on lots of things indirectly but what I'm referring to here is just the price of gas that consumers pay here.

Does anyone know what the relationship between wholesale prices and the price the end user pays (home, not business) in Ireland? We are yet to see a fraction of this increase but barring any government actions to cut taxes to subsidise we must be in for some pain to come.

On the up side at least we have about half our own supply, and what we get from the UK (not that I trust them to have our interests at heart if supply gets cut in Europe) is not sourced in Russia. But the signs are not good.

blanch152

Ireland is going to be left with some difficult choices in the short-term as the transition to a carbon-free economy will take time.

Do we continue the decommissioning of Moneypoint? We could reverse it and lessen our reliance on gas, but that will increase carbon emissions.

Do we build the LNG storage facility in Shannon to lessen our dependence on Russian gas?

These are crucial questions. We could lessen reliance on Russian gas at the expense of emissions in the short term, but we would really need to ramp up grid storage of renewables as well as off-shore wind capacity to eliminate it in the longer-term while also meeting carbon targets.

The Greens may be uncomfortable with some of these decisions, making the government somewhat less stable.

Danzy

There is nothing wrong with energy transition, it's starting it while the capacity is not in place.

At one stage on Tuesday whole sale was at 29 times.

DaSchmo

Yeah that's the problem, we don't have a solution to perfectly substitute gas today (and we need it today) so we will be forced to use less of it (without a substitute in most cases for some time) inflicting pain or to pay an incredibly high price for it. If this increases the transition to renewable that's at least a silver lining of some sort but the plaster can't just be ripped off instantly without a lot of negative side effects which are politically tricky.

MacronvFrugals

Could this accelerate the timeline for potential the of hydrogen with existing gas supplies?

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/011422-uks-gas-grid-ready-for-20-hydrogen-blend-from-2023-network-companies

Wanderer78

hopefully current events will accelerate our changeover to renewables, but this wont be easy, outages are increasingly likely now....

downburst

Prices in the autumn will be somewhere between 50% to 100% more than today. Wholesale price is ~60% of cost to end user, with supply and tax and meter charges etc also added after, so that portion can stay the same, with VAT and levy coming down if politically possible. My guess is at least double current cost, perhaps more, no easy answer to the wholesale price. In mitigation I grew up in the 70's a very draughty and poorly heated family home. We didn't even notice and simply lit the fire and wore vests and jumpers and scarfs out doors, everyone did and it wasn't the end of the world. Small measures like closing doors and keeping the heat in was mandatory in any house. No one wore shorts and tea shirts in the winter in the house and said it's freezing, people would laugh at you. And people wore pyjamas to bed and threw over the old mans coat on the kids bed on a frosty night, or just more blankets. We will have to cut back on the heating end of.

J_1980

EUR is down 5% vs the $ in a month. So that’s 5% “extra inflation” on top of exploding commodities. And I have the feeling there’s a lot more downside to come. Western welfare economic model simply has no future.

simply put, don’t hold EUR cash unless there is a believable change of policy within the ECB. Just can’t see it happening, big government and debt making is too entrenched.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750015#Comment_118750015

No chance we should touch the LNG facility, it was a bad project before and still a bad project.

We could look at putting existing infrastructure back online while we invest in renewable. I still wonder why we have a DC the size of facebook and not a single solar panel on the roof. Let facebook pay for the rollout.

We should instead of moving backwards move forwards, as I said on the Greens thread if they actually got to implement a lot more projects we wouldn't be as screwed now as we are.

More solar PV rollouts immediately onto houses, stop the price gouging which is going on. Every solar panel in Ireland should be installed ASAP. It will be a better return on investment if they used the money for the 200 euro back on fuel to rollout solar to houses or companies.

Any wind companies should be rolling out and connecting now.

Work from home policies again. Loads of people getting pushed back into office after covid, STOP, unless it is extremely important you do not travel.

We cut down the use of oil during covid and it showed how to do it, do the same for the summer at least when we don't need a much heating. Use the summer to get ahead of the issues.

Critical, implement a proper HVO infrastructure and start converting kerosene boilers now. Stop faffing around with A2W for exisitng properties. It will never work and in 30 years time we will still have the same issue

Thelonious Monk

I find it odd that there's no message coming from the government to try and get people to use less gas if possible. Most people could turn the temperature down in their houses and use less heating.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752046#Comment_118752046

That message has been going out for years.

At the moment with the overreaction to everyone about anything the government announces I doubt they want to go on TV and ask people to reduce fuel usage. You can image the threads on here with the usual losing the run of themselves because the guberment asked then to reduce the heating. "Oh they don't know what its like in their ivory towers" etc etc etc

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752073#Comment_118752073

Not sure what it's like in McMansion land but here in the big smoke pretty much everyone seems to have gas heating.

dublin49

so if a 60% component of the overall cost increases by 20 fold are we facing a +10 fold increase in gas/electric which would equate to circa 16000k to 24000K a year or am I missing something .

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752196#Comment_118752196

They sure don't, that's why gas/petrol hikes wont affect us as badly as the 7 cars per household bungalow brigade.

Overheal

Here's an infograph (free view link) showing the inflow and outflows that will be affected by oil sanctions on Russia:

https://wapo.st/35VBQSZ

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752123#Comment_118752123

No need for that.. being a nasty **** isn't clever or sophisticated no matter where you live.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752229#Comment_118752229

I have been very criticial of one-off housing for years now, and one of the biggest criticisms was the dependence on fossil fuel. That chicken is coming home to roost for the McMansions many of which were built to shoddy standards and the price will be paid now.

Ubbquittious

They really tried to hold back roof - top solar. They are still holding it back with their piss poor to non existent feed-in tariffs.

It could replace a significant portion of what is now generated with gas. Even a small install of 1kW panels on 1 million houses would put a good dent in it. Yet the ESB insists on holding it back, industry big wigs don't like the notion of ordinary folk getting paid to produce electricity, that's only supposed to be the preserve of big foreign investment corps.

maccored

Are you sure that the issue isnt - much like electric car production - that they require more energy and fossil fuel-burning equipment to mine, manufacture, and transport than they save? or the toxic chemicals that are used in the manufacturing process ?

Ubbquittious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752229#Comment_118752229

There is a brigade for them now?

What happens if someone in the household acquires an extra car or one breaks down? Does their brigadier general kick them out?

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758332#Comment_118758332

They blame Eamon Ryan on thejournal.ie comments

JimmyVik

We have oil heating. Boiler is finished. It wont last more than another month im thinking.

Trying to decide. Should we go for a new gas heating system as gas is on the road, or just get a new oil burner and stick with oil.

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750015#Comment_118750015

They don't seem like difficult choices to me.

Whatever choice delivers us cheap, abundant and continous energy right now - take it.

Let morality and virtue play together outside in the cold.

SeanW

I never thought I'd say this but I think we need more coal power. So Moneypoint should be refurbished, as should the two peat burning power stations in the Midlands. The fact is that we need to find alternatives to Russian energy throughout the civilised world and we need them fast.

The eco-hippie types have been banging on about renewables since Cold War era but there is not yet a solar panel that can provide heat on cold winter nights, and no country has ever decarbonised its electricity grid without near full reliance on a combination of hydropower and nuclear energy. And windmills are no use because we can have long spells of windless weather.

So to me that means we need to do all of the below:

• Refurbish moneypoint
• Bring the peat power plants in the Midlands back online.
• Build the LNG terminal at Shannon and maybe a few others.
• End all limits or bans on all forms of energy resource exploration and extraction in the State. That is, oil, gas, coal, peat and uranium.
• Reconsider our ban on the development and use of clean, reliable, civilian nuclear electricity.
• Make it a priority to retrofit gas boilers with other types of fuel, e.g. boiler stoves.
• Consider any reasonable efficiency or temporary reduction measures while alternative supplies are brought online.

Saving the polar bears is all well and good but one of our main energy suppliers is murdering children in Ukraine today. That's needs a focused response, today, focused exclusively on eliminating our dependence on murdering terrorist scum. As far as I am concerned, all other priorities should be rescinded.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752046#Comment_118752046

Supply isn't an issue here. The majority of our gas (60%) is from corrib, with the rest from the North sea/Norway. Only a small amount comes from Russia.

We'd be proper fucked if shell 2 sea had been successful.

The problem for us is that gas is priced on international markets. So while it could become very expensive, it will be available.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759067#Comment_118759067

You can start by forgetting about the midlands peat burning stations. You do realise that the principal reason these inefficient plants have been decommissioned is that Bord na Móna has practically stripped any raised bogs of value. There's no fuel left worth burning in them. The great carbon sinks of Ireland raped for little benefit other than the promise of seasonal work to keep politicians constituents happy.

Overheal

"End all limits or bans on all forms of energy resource exploration and extraction in the State. That is, oil, gas, coal, peat and uranium."

Just rip up all the environmentally protected land, chop down every tree, and save the grease from every pig, cow or sheep. Strip mine the hills, frack in the villages, send children down in the mines for yellowcake, and yes batten down the hatches lads.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759197#Comment_118759197

That's not strictly true. They stopped producing because they couldn't win any energy auctions as they were too expensive to run, even with the PSO levy.

They served their purpose. They should've been replaced with bio energy stations, but the plan for getting them fuel was half baked to say the least. It was mad that they were planning on trucking fuel to them when barges up the Shannon or rail were obvious alternatives that could've been made work with a little imagination.

Shelga

I’ve never understood why we didn’t develop more hydro schemes, after the success of Ardnacrusha. I know it can be disruptive to the habitat it’s developed in, but can we really say we’ve exhausted all opportunities in this area?

Pa ElGrande

Bring back the minister for hardship. ration books, inflation, the cycle repeats

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzu1ToAxdFk

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759963#Comment_118759963

Bio energy - burning crops like willow and so on, not the bogs.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761391#Comment_118761391

You need a head of water and a good guaranteed flow. Most of our rivers are too small and the larger ones are too flat, not enough gradient. One solution would be man made reservoirs in the hills, with controlled flow to turbines but that would be fought tooth & nail. Tidal in places is a possibility. Long term, I'm sure we'll see a mixture of wind turbines, solar, wave power and inter connectors to nuclear plants elsewhere.

eeepaulo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759083#Comment_118759083

Do we just pay the market rate for corrib and then get a discount / government rebate / royalties or something else?

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118763422#Comment_118763422

We pay the market rate for corrib. Government get to tax the profits, but afaik the operator gets to write off the cost of the investment before tax is due.

I think the rate is 25%. Corrib wasn't about security of price but security of supply.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118761391#Comment_118761391

We did. There's the Liffey scheme, Lee scheme, Cathaleen falls and a few other smaller ones. We maxed out our hydro resources fairly quickly following electrification.

MacronvFrugals

Gas price go boom!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1503656065820467200?s=20&t=n-AtFZ-vVwcYHPdGR_Pjlw