Saturday 5th March 2022

An early look at the day's racing, and the Greatwood Gold Cup caught the eye as having potential for finding a reasonable priced winner.

The ground is soft, and will hope it stays that way, as that is main criteria for selection purposes. Two picks in this,

1.50 Newbury

SENIOR CITIZEN 9/2 Lads ew

A good 4th in this last year on good ground. Went well on softer going lto at Aintree when coming 2nd over a similar trip. Should be fine if t'ground dries out.

PAINT THE DREAM 7/1 gen ew

One of two Fergal O'Brien has in this - he also has one of the favourites in the shape of recent C & D winner ~ 10/3 shot Dublin Four, but I'm not entirely convinced of his claims at this level.

Paint The Dream is short enough,, he's a course winner tho and fairly consistent at this level.

might back them later today to give me some hope for weekend 😊

btw this aint tomorrow's thread - on account tomorrow is Friday,, confusion can easily arise...

GL ☺️

Ventured in tee town to do a few for today,,, might wait til tomorrow and see what the lie of the land is as regards prices/going changes etc,,

wasn't too enamoured on the 7/1 about Paint The Dream (can see him at 10s or bigger possibly) ; and t'other one, Senior Citizen ~ 9/2 Lads (about right that price) ; well I'd have had to venture into Ladbrokes to get that price, and I didn't feel up to it.. Last time I was in there I asked bird behind counter : "can I get a price in race 'x' without the favourite" she were getting right annoyed, and asking me stupid irrelevant questions, and even had the temerity to get exasperated, and felt entitled about it too (I asked a few times too, and the perspex plus mask didn't help with either),,,, so I fukd off outta shop that day (for ~ 20 seconds or so) to see what the 'upshot' would be, as there were 2 other customers in shop at the time, and I had it at 1/7 - 2/15ish that they'd be talking about me 😋 I come back in anyhow and I get the sense they were, but twas inconclusive as regards me going (or having the option to moreso 😆) on a righteous rant,,, fk Ladbrokes!

1.00 Kelso

JOHNNY BOOM ew ~ 14s probable

Likely not priced up yet, so 14/1 is what I'm going by, as is the paper/probable sp early doors for this,, only 2 places (5 declared) , and it might be wise to go win only, but tis hard to not back yokes at e/w prices, each way..

If Genuflex can replicate his second last run then he should go close,, that were on soft/gd to soft in a Class 2,, if he acts on heavy, then he could well hose up on the provisional soft-heavy in places going,, could be odds on or could be bigger,, likely be very short tho,, however, he's worth a bet if 2/1 or bigger can be got,, others might be happy to back him shorter,,, each to their own, as I sometimes say 😃

onto the pick Johnny Boom - he won a flat race last August for Richard Fahey over 10fs at Ponty on soft going (a mediocre Class 6 Amateur race, but he still won it tho),, that's the form I feel will give Johnny a chance here... has had two hurdles' runs in total, and will ignore the last one, as he pretty much literally 'ran all over the place' then,, came 6th of 6 on his first ever hurdles' outing, but was only beaten ~ 20lgths,,, will hope he's better schooled tomorrow,, will need to get his act together for sure, but worth €1.50 e/w or €2 win, only if price is right tho,,,

logic tells me have no bet on him at shorter than 11s,, I often overrule logic tho 😄,, think Ultra Violet or Genuflex will set the fractions here, and it won't turn into too much of a dawdle...

Gl

1.50

6s got on Senior Citizen,, done him e/w, tho I think he's more a win only prospect,, anything above 5s is value here imo,,

got 9s on t'other one, Paint The Dream, which is e/w pick also,,, probably not a value price but fek it 😃

1.59 Lingfield Libbretta / Go On Gal,,,, e/way on em both

have doubts here on the two favs (Sir Joseph Swan ~ 13/8 and Pilot Wings ~ 7/2) staying the twelve furlongs here,, have fair form over 1m 2f on t'AW, but nothing much (SJS has one third place attempt from his one and only go over 1 1/2m, which was over C & D two runs back) over 1m 4f.

like the first pick LIBBRETTA 9/1 PP/Lads/Boyles at the prices,, has hit the crossbar on quite a few occasions over C & D, and with Ms Doyle on top, this lightly raced 7yr old has a chance to get her noggin in front where it counts,, a lowish draw in five is no harm either,

Savoy Brown ~ 5/1 is another who's unlikely (imo) to appreciate the 12f trip at this course, and hard to see him win,, Pilot Wings and Savoy Brown are both sired by Epaulette, and I think his better progeny do well over shorter trips,,

nothing else of massive interest here,, the topweight Crestwood sports first time cheekpieces and you could make a case for him on some of his turf form, and excuse his recent two runs on account of him travelling wide in both, but he's not for me,, could be 'running on late' perhaps, but doubt he'll be troubling any judges,,

If the race is ran to suit, it's possible to give Stormingin a chance for the in form Gary Moore here,, runs more bad races than good though, and unlikely he'll replicate his 2nd placing over C & D on his penultimate outing, which saw tomorrow's apprentice, the 7lb claiming Anna Gibson take the mount then,, not getting any younger either at nine.

So many I don't like, or are lukewarm on, so odds on I like something else too 'at a price' , and indeed I do 😃,, 'favourable mention' goes to GO ON GAL 16/1 PP/Lads/Boyles, who has won and come placed many times over this trip,, plenty of question marks, eg recent form, layoff, lack of 'Course & Distance' form; and one what obviously doesn't deserve 'maximum faith' , but will do me as a second e/w selection here...

two mares is the picks here,, there's another mare in t'race in shape of Joyful Song ~ 33/1.. could the three female geegees fill first three places? tis possible I suppose, as it's Joyful Song's first run in a flat handicap,,, as far as surprises go, it wouldn't be the greatest one ever, as she ran okayish races in her two bumper outings... not one for t'mortgage mind,,,

"off t'reservation" Nap : Joe Perry to beat 'Jackpot' Jack Lisowski in second semi final of Welsh Open in t'snooker,, 11/10 for The Gentleman to prevail, so tis a short enough price.. 7.00pm tomorrow.. Available to watch on Quest and Eurosport1 from 6.45pm..

best of luck folks

j@utis

3:50 Lingers, I think Strong Power 5/2 can take this. He had 100+ rated opponents behind when beaten only 1/2 in class1 listed event last time.

j@utis

In 1:59 I agree with you leff, that Libbretta has a good chance, still a maiden but on the lowest ever mark, this is a weaker race, Hollie booked, so yeah must be a good thing. The favorite was strongly back last time when coming back from several months break, this is time is the same, not without a chance. Savoy Brown has been tipped by Hugh Taylor ATR and has shortened since, that's another danger. Pilot Wings form over 10f isn't inspiring but you never know.

j@utis

and I have to back Danni California in 2:34, just because 🤣 "no fav" market is back on PP, so let's play! 🤣 I'm really showing no discipline this morning but if it goes well, I might even dive into Southwell evening meeting for more buzzzz.

11/2 got on Libbretta,, ya have to be up at crack to get a decent price ffs,,

Shemale

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118735687#Comment_118735687

What is Lingers?

If it's okay for 'Tommo' , it's good enough for us 🤣

j@utis

There's a good support for Libbretta now 6/1 from 9/1, fav is backed well too.

ETA: 5/1 now 😄 fingers crossed!

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118736518#Comment_118736518

Lingfield.

No joy with Libbretta :(

Savoy Brown wins,,, the favs no good, so I give myself pat on back for that 😃

delayed 'Boom' incoming 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058235704/saturday-5th-march-2022

1.50 Newbury

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118736687#Comment_118736687

PAINT THE DREAM 7/1 gen ew

BOOM! 😁

j@utis

Good job on that one, leff!

ta j@u 😊 tis appreciated tbs :)

GL with Strong Power laterer at Lingers,, has right good chances at a nice price for in form Alice Haynes

SonOfGoat

Found it hard to find solid opportunities today.

Just the 2 bets for me.

3.43 kelso, not liking dubai days here at all. Can't see it being placed in the first 2. Laying 2 places at 6/4 give or take.

4.12 Newbury, soldier of fortune, currently around 6/4'ish. I can't see this horse winning here. Lay bet and my best of the day. Won off 122, off131 today and question mark about the distance. Just can't see it winning.

Shemale

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118736594#Comment_118736594

Ah, it that what the cool cats call it?

j@utis

Nah, not cool it's just easier to pronounce and spell/type.

I'm not having any luck today and won't be chasing my loses later in Southwell. Have a good evening lads.

I watched the replay of Strong Power run in 3:50 Lingers and I have an inkling that bad defeat was partially jockeys fault, he shouldn't have finished that far behind the winner after well beating him twice on previous meets.

SonOfGoat

I was on the fence about this bet but as its getting backed heavily in the betting I will lay at the short odds.

5.05 Navan, first class, around just over 11/10 and a cracking price to lay at in my opinion. I'm quite confident that the horse won't win. Chasing is very different to hurdles in terms of distance and at 2m4f I thieits very vulnerable. Won over 3m1f chasing and if today was that distance I'd be backing, but over the 2m4f I just can't see it winning. Confident lay bet on first class.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118737065#Comment_118737065

4.12 Newbury, soldier of fortune, currently around 6/4'ish. I can't see this horse winning here. 

Soldier Of Destiny

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118737387#Comment_118737387

5.05 Navan, first class, around just over 11/10 and a cracking price to lay at in my opinion.

All Class

2 lay bets oblige with minimal fuss,, I'll get the hang of Goat Code yet 😁

WD!