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The Trump Debate for 2024

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  • 23-02-2022 9:01pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,057 ✭✭✭✭


    This is one of the most interesting markets in betting right now.

    In 2016 in a two horse race, he was clearly value, while in 2020 the market over reacted and his opponent Biden was value the whole way through as bettors kept thinking Trump could do it again. Biden actually was 3/1 or bigger when Trump won Florida early in the night.

    Anyway 2024, and he is 2.38 aka 11/8 for republican nomination.

    Obviously those cynical will point to the obvious drawbacks,,,,its three years away, he is 75 and obviously investigation's non stop.

    However on the other side, 73 is actually young for American politics, and he seems bullet proof when it comes to all his corruption.

    Before anyone asks "can he be beaten if he runs"

    No he can't , he has minimum 40% of the GOP voting base locked in and in a congested field that's more than enough. Its also likely the 2nd fav Ron De Santis will drop out if Trump runs.

    So guys, for better or worse where would you put your money here?



Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭the whole year inn


    He is in a lot of rally's and he had the 2nd highest voter turnout ever only to be beat by Biden.

    He is pretty much bullet proof , the stuff that came out against him and he is still around makes him hard to beat.

    He has die hard supporters and lots of them . He is 5/2 now for the win and I will slowly be backing that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,057 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I'd play the 4.7 on bf if I were you ,,,if he runs and all indications are that he will he wins the primary. It may not be the massacre some are suggesting but he should be comfortable.

    Then no matter the dem candidate he will probably be slight favorite on betfair so easy enough to trade your initial position.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭jacool


    His (red) hat is in the ring

    27/11 DeSantis

    4/1 Trump

    9/2 Biden

    Republican Candidate

    7/5 DeSantis

    7/4 Trump

    18/1 Pence

    Democratic Candidate

    13/8 Biden

    11/2 Harris

    6/1 Newsom



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,378 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Newsome as the eventual winner @14s is good value right now imo.

    The GOP vote could be split if trump runs separately after not being endorsed by the reds. Also, if the reds endorse de santis, trump well cause all manner of trouble for him and will certainly refuse to ensure de santis should trump decide to run. That also will reduce de santis' voting numbers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,057 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Biden is an interesting one.

    He had a good midterms so there won't be much momentum to get rid of him.

    He beats Trump again pretty comfortably, DeSantis he would not worry about if Trump is running a kamikaze third party option.

    DeSantis is to short at the moment, how he beats Trump in a primary, then persuades Trump not to run and to top it all off he would still have to beat Biden!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭todolist


    Trump will be the nominee in 2024 and he should win.Democrats are shambolic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10 seylen


    I don't understand why most politicians are that age. Why aren't there younger people in such positions? It seems to me that young people could do more effective things, because their thinking is different.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,378 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat



    current 2024 odds



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,057 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Said it numerous times online, insane that the most important people in US politics are Biden, Trump ,Mitch and Pelosi (to be fair not so much as the GOP have the house) but yeah it's very bleak.

    I have a nice bet on Ron at big prices , but I think Biden is small value if you want a play. The only way he is not the Dem nominee is if he dies and he seems in good enough shape for someone so old.

    Then he would be fav v Trump because the latter is just so toxic to indy's and suburban women.

    Would he beat RDS? Tough one. It would depend on what Trump is doing, is he running a spoiler third candidate platform or does he back Ron?



  • Registered Users Posts: 41 DrivingMrDaisy


    Trump isn't getting in again because he ain't winning the nomination against DeSantis. Fox have come out in support of the Florida governor so that's where my money would be going.



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