TECHNICAL DISCUSSION - Storm Eunice 18th February

SleetAndSnow

Considering the other thread has all the charts being buried by comments about teachers being off etc, I think it's time for a technical discussion thread where the charts and proper postings won't get buried.

No chat in this thread please.

CURRENT WARNINGS:

Status Red - Wind warning for Cork, Kerry

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Storm Eunice will track quickly over Ireland tonight and Friday morning bringing severe and damaging winds. Southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speeds in excess of 80 km/h with gusts in excess of 130 km/h. Some coastal flooding, especially at high tide.
• Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 08:00 Friday 18/02/2022
• Issued: 09:36 Thursday 17/02/2022
• Updated: 11:41 Thursday 17/02/2022
• 
  

Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Wicklow, Munster, Galway

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Storm Eunice will track quickly over Ireland tonight and Friday morning bringing severe and damaging winds for a time. Southwest or cyclonic winds becoming northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts up to 130 km/h. Some coastal flooding, especially at high tide.
• Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022
• Issued: 09:36 Thursday 17/02/2022
• Updated: 11:38 Thursday 17/02/2022
• 
  

Status Orange - Snow warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo, Roscommon

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Storm Eunice will bring heavy sleet and snow leading to blizzard-like conditions in parts with treacherous driving conditions.
• Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
• Issued: 10:36 Thursday 17/02/2022
• 
  

Status Yellow - Wind & Rain & Snow warning for Ireland

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Storm Eunice will track over Ireland on Thursday night and on Friday bringing very strong winds and falls of heavy rain, sleet and snow.
• 
  
• Some disruption is likely along with a possibility of coastal and spot flooding.
• 
  
• Warnings will be updated on Thursday morning.
• Valid: 01:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
• Issued: 10:49 Wednesday 16/02/2022

Larbre34

Proper postings? Do enlighten...

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646534#Comment_118646534

This thread is to avoid comments from people such as "Don't you love annoying the weather freaks!" And "another day off for the teachers! Brilliant!"

Instead, charts, technical information, gust statistics etc will be posted here as has been done in all previous technical discussions in the past, with the other thread for general conversation about the alerts, such as the above.

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 65 knots from the south /south west between 2am - 6am. Wild enough!

TEMPO 1802/1806 21040G65KT 

BECMG 1804/1806 27032G54KT 

BECMG 1806/1808 30035G60KT TEMPO 1806/1812 SHRA SCT020CB 

BECMG 1810/1812 29023G40KT 

Discodog

Some of us rely on the information here. I will be working outdoors even if a red warning is in operation.

I don't need to know about people's reactions to ME, forecasts, schools closing etc. I do need to know the most accurate, up to date, conditions & forecasts.

I am not alone & a group of dedicated posters do their best to provide essential information that gets buried in pages of comment.

Every storm needs a technical thread. Thank you OP.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646597#Comment_118646597

Yet you just did similar....

Gaoth Laidir

Shannon Airport TAF has a chance of gusts to 70 knots from 8-10 am tomorrow.

TAF EINN 171100Z 1712/1812 26021G33KT 9999 FEW018 SCT030

PROB40 TEMPO 1712/1714 SHRA FEW018CB

BECMG 1715/1717 24012KT

BECMG 1717/1719 17008KT

BECMG 1719/1721 11010KT

BECMG 1721/1723 12020G33KT

TEMPO 1721/1801 4000 RA BKN008

BECMG 1800/1802 21025G40KT

BECMG 1804/1806 30035G50KT

TEMPO 1804/1812 4000 SHRA SCT018CB

PROB40 TEMPO 1806/1810 31040G70KT

PROB30 TEMPO 1806/1812 SHRASN BKN012

BECMG 1810/1812 30025G45KT=

Cluedo Monopoly

I like to watch the mountain forecast site.

Croagh Patrick Weather Forecast (764m) (mountain-forecast.com)

Croagh Patrick forecasted to get 10cm of snow on Thursday evening. At the peak (764m).

Galtymore (917m) only gets 2cm which is in line for this being a W/NW snow event.

JanuarySnowstor

The Icon just out looks weak enough.

Hard to judge that model but I've a feeling this event isn't going to be as bad as feared. Soon find out as the rest trundle out

pad199207

Yeah ICON definitely looking weaker. I wonder will GFS follow

Rebelbrowser

GFS probably a bit weaker for us, but a lot weaker for the UK.

JanuarySnowstor

The South is the place for the snow tomorrow afternoon as a trough line moves across!

Rebelbrowser

Surprisingly, GFS track is more southern if anything - no northern correction here....

Rebelbrowser

Also, as JS has alluded too, is there possibly more of a widespread snow risk then expected on the 12z GFS? In particular at 9am it has -7 uppers over most of the country. Was that expected? Its the GFS I know...

Supercell

Interesting TAF for Dublin Airport :

TAF COR EIDW 171112Z 1712/1812 26013KT 9999 SCT010 BKN015

  PROB40

  TEMPO 1712/1714 25015G25KT -SHRA SCT018CB

  BECMG 1719/1721 22008KT

  BECMG 1721/1723 14010KT -RA BKN012

  BECMG 1723/1801 14020G34KT

  TEMPO 1723/1803 4000 RA BKN006

  BECMG 1801/1803 14025G40KT

  BECMG 1803/1805 21020G35KT FEW012 BKN025

  PROB40

  TEMPO 1803/1806 21028G40KT

  BECMG 1806/1808 26020G30KT

  TEMPO 1806/1810 SHRA BKN012

  BECMG 1808/1810 29030G50KT

  PROB40

  TEMPO 1809/1812 30035G60KT

Basically peaking 8AM - 10AM tomorrow morning with gale force winds and a high chance of gusts around 50-60knots (Storm - Violent storm force) from a WNW direction in the greater Dublin area. Some rain in the early hours, clearing to showers of rain before dawn. No sneachta to be seen unfortunately.

Wasnt expecting that to be honest, a little further south here in Loughlinstown I'm hoping Wicklow hills will provide some shelter, but the more northerly it turns out to be the less shelter they'll provide.

DOCARCH

Surprisingly exposed to a NW wind here in Greystones, in my location, right at the coast. Will be interesting to see can Eunice beat Dudley's 63 knot gust here (yesterday morning).

squarecircles

Clare and Waterford now upgraded to status RED.

SleetAndSnow

Latest WRF rolling out has the system ever so slightly further south then the previous run at 6am... and by slight I mean barely. Showing max gusts of about 120km/h for Cork City and 130 or so for the rest of the county, same for Clare and Waterford. Actually lines up fairly well with Met Eireanns predictions I think

Oscar Bravo

5pm TAF max gusts

Cork 65 knots between 2am - 7am

Shannon 50 knots between 6am-8am with a chance of gusts up to 65knots between 8am-11am

Dublin 50 knots between 8am-10am with a chance of 60 knots between 10am - 1pm (one to watch)

Knock 50 knots between 6am-8am also with a chance of up to 60 knots between 7am-10am

pad199207

Arpege and GFS 12z looks a lot weaker have to say

Kermit.de.frog

Position and GP heights 8am

ICON Temp 850hpa layer

Dew point (8 am)

Projected snow accumulations to 9 am

Tazio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648217#Comment_118648217

agreed... just saw that there too.. thankfully.

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647775#Comment_118647775

Would coincide with school runs too, plus is quite strong by Dublin standards. Kids out walking or cycling won't enjoy it.

M.T. Cranium

The most significant change in the 12z model suite seems to be the dual-low emphasis with the northern weaker centre tending to pull in just mild enough air to limit the snowfall potential during the early phases to northwest Connacht and Donegal. Parts of Connacht, midlands and Ulster have been removed from the accumulating snow zone as a result. GEM remains a bit less robust with the northern feature so its guidance might retain more snow in those areas mentioned.

The southern part of the structure is still fairly similar to the 06z depiction with the strongest winds following in behind the low centre, it's not until the low reaches about Wexford that there is much of a trend towards more evenly distributed wind speeds and by then the strong winds are heading into southwest England and south Wales.

For the south coast in general, would expect about 2-3 hours of very windy conditions setting in just after the low has passed by, mostly from the W to NW so you might assess your local exposure to that direction as one factor in play. A more general strong blast of WNW winds will then develop over most of the country by later morning. The increased area of the strong wind circulation will drop the intensity somewhat.

Emphasis will be on fast-changing and fast-moving conditions through the morning hours, and the cold, windy period to follow, probably just cold enough for mixed wintry showers rather than widespread snow showers, but minor accumulations on hills.

The Saturday following wave looks interesting and somewhat different versions of it given on different models, potential for an interval of 3-5 cm snow accumulations before milder air arrives, but at this point, can't be too specific about locations.

Will be updating the forecast soon. It's probably a situation of technical local validations of red but more widespread orange for the counties involved in red warnings, and likely the same could be said (orange-yellow) for the orange. I suppose we're always going to have this sort of result and most Boards weather people know that there will be a range of outcomes per county.

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs is showing a spell of sleet/snow moving across Munster tomorrow lunchtime/afternoon. All talk is about snow in the Northwest and this seems to be bypassed.

If gfs is right of course

nacho libre

A disastrous update from MT in terms of snow laying at lower levels, but I had a feeling too much milder air would be drawn into the circulation. Still , in saying that if we get heavy snow that leads to blizzard like conditions for a time I will be happy with that

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648636#Comment_118648636

And we all know it won’t be well unless you live on top of a hill maybe.

highdef

Latest UKMO model also has that feature except it crosses the bottom two thirds of the island, not just areas more southerly than that.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648781#Comment_118648781

Let's get over tonight first! 🤪

Gaoth Laidir

Latest from 18Z, showing the Shapiro-Keyser structure (detached cold front) typical of deep lows coming up from the southwest. Pressure has dropped 16 hPa in the 6 hours since 12Z.

SleetAndSnow

How is the development vs the models looking? To me it looks a bit further north with the eye going to hit Clare/North Kerry?