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TECHNICAL DISCUSSION - Storm Eunice 18th February

  • 17-02-2022 1:28pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭


    Considering the other thread has all the charts being buried by comments about teachers being off etc, I think it's time for a technical discussion thread where the charts and proper postings won't get buried.


    No chat in this thread please.


    CURRENT WARNINGS:

    Status Red - Wind warning for Cork, Kerry

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Storm Eunice will track quickly over Ireland tonight and Friday morning bringing severe and damaging winds. Southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speeds in excess of 80 km/h with gusts in excess of 130 km/h. Some coastal flooding, especially at high tide.
    • Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 08:00 Friday 18/02/2022
    • Issued: 09:36 Thursday 17/02/2022
    • Updated: 11:41 Thursday 17/02/2022

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Wicklow, Munster, Galway

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Storm Eunice will track quickly over Ireland tonight and Friday morning bringing severe and damaging winds for a time. Southwest or cyclonic winds becoming northwest will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts up to 130 km/h. Some coastal flooding, especially at high tide.
    • Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022
    • Issued: 09:36 Thursday 17/02/2022
    • Updated: 11:38 Thursday 17/02/2022

    Status Orange - Snow warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo, Roscommon

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Storm Eunice will bring heavy sleet and snow leading to blizzard-like conditions in parts with treacherous driving conditions.
    • Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
    • Issued: 10:36 Thursday 17/02/2022

    Status Yellow - Wind & Rain & Snow warning for Ireland

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Storm Eunice will track over Ireland on Thursday night and on Friday bringing very strong winds and falls of heavy rain, sleet and snow.

    • Some disruption is likely along with a possibility of coastal and spot flooding.

    • Warnings will be updated on Thursday morning.
    • Valid: 01:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 15:00 Friday 18/02/2022
    • Issued: 10:49 Wednesday 16/02/2022




«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,598 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Proper postings? Do enlighten...



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,010 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Cork Airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 65 knots from the south /south west between 2am - 6am. Wild enough!


    TEMPO 1802/1806 21040G65KT 

    BECMG 1804/1806 27032G54KT 

    BECMG 1806/1808 30035G60KT TEMPO 1806/1812 SHRA SCT020CB 

    BECMG 1810/1812 29023G40KT 



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Shannon Airport TAF has a chance of gusts to 70 knots from 8-10 am tomorrow.

    TAF EINN 171100Z 1712/1812 26021G33KT 9999 FEW018 SCT030

    PROB40 TEMPO 1712/1714 SHRA FEW018CB

    BECMG 1715/1717 24012KT

    BECMG 1717/1719 17008KT

    BECMG 1719/1721 11010KT

    BECMG 1721/1723 12020G33KT

    TEMPO 1721/1801 4000 RA BKN008

    BECMG 1800/1802 21025G40KT

    BECMG 1804/1806 30035G50KT

    TEMPO 1804/1812 4000 SHRA SCT018CB

    PROB40 TEMPO 1806/1810 31040G70KT

    PROB30 TEMPO 1806/1812 SHRASN BKN012

    BECMG 1810/1812 30025G45KT=



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,164 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I like to watch the mountain forecast site.

    Croagh Patrick Weather Forecast (764m) (mountain-forecast.com)

    Croagh Patrick forecasted to get 10cm of snow on Thursday evening. At the peak (764m).

    Galtymore (917m) only gets 2cm which is in line for this being a W/NW snow event.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The Icon just out looks weak enough.

    Hard to judge that model but I've a feeling this event isn't going to be as bad as feared. Soon find out as the rest trundle out



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yeah ICON definitely looking weaker. I wonder will GFS follow



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    GFS probably a bit weaker for us, but a lot weaker for the UK.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The South is the place for the snow tomorrow afternoon as a trough line moves across!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Surprisingly, GFS track is more southern if anything - no northern correction here....




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Also, as JS has alluded too, is there possibly more of a widespread snow risk then expected on the 12z GFS? In particular at 9am it has -7 uppers over most of the country. Was that expected? Its the GFS I know...




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,228 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Interesting TAF for Dublin Airport :

    TAF COR EIDW 171112Z 1712/1812 26013KT 9999 SCT010 BKN015

      PROB40

      TEMPO 1712/1714 25015G25KT -SHRA SCT018CB

      BECMG 1719/1721 22008KT

      BECMG 1721/1723 14010KT -RA BKN012

      BECMG 1723/1801 14020G34KT

      TEMPO 1723/1803 4000 RA BKN006

      BECMG 1801/1803 14025G40KT

      BECMG 1803/1805 21020G35KT FEW012 BKN025

      PROB40

      TEMPO 1803/1806 21028G40KT

      BECMG 1806/1808 26020G30KT

      TEMPO 1806/1810 SHRA BKN012

      BECMG 1808/1810 29030G50KT

      PROB40

      TEMPO 1809/1812 30035G60KT


    Basically peaking 8AM - 10AM tomorrow morning with gale force winds and a high chance of gusts around 50-60knots (Storm - Violent storm force) from a WNW direction in the greater Dublin area. Some rain in the early hours, clearing to showers of rain before dawn. No sneachta to be seen unfortunately.

    Wasnt expecting that to be honest, a little further south here in Loughlinstown I'm hoping Wicklow hills will provide some shelter, but the more northerly it turns out to be the less shelter they'll provide.

    Post edited by Supercell on

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Surprisingly exposed to a NW wind here in Greystones, in my location, right at the coast. Will be interesting to see can Eunice beat Dudley's 63 knot gust here (yesterday morning).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Clare and Waterford now upgraded to status RED.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Arpege and GFS 12z looks a lot weaker have to say



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  • Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭Tazio




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,499 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Would coincide with school runs too, plus is quite strong by Dublin standards. Kids out walking or cycling won't enjoy it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,863 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The gfs is showing a spell of sleet/snow moving across Munster tomorrow lunchtime/afternoon. All talk is about snow in the Northwest and this seems to be bypassed.

    If gfs is right of course



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,483 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A disastrous update from MT in terms of snow laying at lower levels, but I had a feeling too much milder air would be drawn into the circulation. Still , in saying that if we get heavy snow that leads to blizzard like conditions for a time I will be happy with that



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    And we all know it won’t be well unless you live on top of a hill maybe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,049 ✭✭✭highdef


    Latest UKMO model also has that feature except it crosses the bottom two thirds of the island, not just areas more southerly than that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,269 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog




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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    How is the development vs the models looking? To me it looks a bit further north with the eye going to hit Clare/North Kerry?



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