Dairy Expansion

Bass Reeves

I see Gerry Boyle is heading a think-tank to get to grips with fair and expansion.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/minister-confirms-plan-to-stabilise-and-reduce-dairy-emissions/

WhAt is interesting is the report is supposed to be carried out before March. This looks like a serious attempt to get to grips with the exponential rise in dairy cow numbers. Last year we had about an extra 30-40k cows coming into the system and about he same is expected this year and next year.

I cannot see them succeeding unless they get really tough. At the same time they do not want to limit new entrants.

Should they stop the tax relief of leasing. Reduce the amount of low interest money to Dairy. Stop dairy TAMS if used for expansion. Increase the nitrates of cows. Freeze any expansion above 120 cows. End the derogation. Put dairy farmers under the EPA for pollution purposes. Make them keep calves to 3 months. Remove BPS above a certain amount of cows. Reduce NPK allowances. Bring back the old bull licencing system, with genomic testing you could class bulls that could be used, force them to use decent quality terminal beef sires. Put a 3-5c/ litre levy on milk above 7-800k litres. 100 euro levy on every dairy cow and 200/head above 100 and 300 above 150 cows.

It will be interesting to see what innovative methods they come up with. Because all the other three card tricks so far have failed.

They seem more determined this time with the target being this year's breeding season.

Say my name

Bring back the retirement scheme that glanbia had and extend it to other coops.

There's no need for any of the Bolloxing to put existing producers under pressure.

Glanbias scheme was oversubscribed. It had double the numbers than was places I believe.

There's no other industry or farming group would put up the messing that dairy farmers are supposed to put up with from outside their group.

Other groups are in Dublin arguing their cases. Dairy farmers are stuck to the cow.

Around me lads are looking for a way out.

Amazing how taisce and the anti livestock crowd have gotten their wish to the minister and the government and fellow farmers.

Be careful what ye wish for. Because ye'll be next.

jaymla627

The Dutch are going to pay farmers compensation to reduce numbers/exit the industry, while your above brainstorming ideas literally want to put farming families out on the side of the road and financially ruined, remember all this dairy expansion from the get go has been government led, and now we are in a situation where billions of euro has been invested both on and off-farm with co-ops having took on massive debt to facilitate it...

The only way this money gets paid back is through milk going through these plants at the numbers that farmers have based their borrowings on and processors have also, our a Dutch style compensation system is put in place....

Going with the stick approach is all well and good, once whatever sitting government that implements is prepared for kickback, Canada at the minute with the Trucker/farmer protests is a eye-opener that eventually if you continually beat down on a certain demographic of a thought of placid section of a population you'll eventually provoke them to go to extreme lengths in defiance

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118570981#Comment_118570981

Some sort of a quota??,

Protects existing suppliers and can sell out.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571143#Comment_118571143

I'm not sure 100% of what the deal was.

I know one producer I sold heifer calves to took the deal. Another locally where there was issues between the parties was nearly tempted but didn't. If it was improved on they almost certainly would have retired.

South wexford there's a good few went ahead.

I know who was handling the applications was surprised at the interest.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058230968/dairy-expansion

You’ve given them lots of ideas there any way Bass!

3-5cpl fine over 800k litres, sure how would a farm with 2 families survive at all

the one enterprise that can stand on its own 2 feet and they want to drag it down

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571143#Comment_118571143

On cattle and sheep and horses?

Ah yea, next government.

Tried and failed on the suckler cows with the donegal minister this time.

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571316#Comment_118571316

No need to tamper with the sucklers at all. They are dying out fast down this way anyhow. 8 suckler men gone in this parish in the last couple of years. About 400 cows. Mix of dairying, rearing calves,increased sheep and tillage on the farms.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571331#Comment_118571331

Every farmer will have turned on their neighbour.

All this won't be over by a long shot in a long time.

Battle after this is when the soil samples go back to the dept looking for peaty ground. Enviros currently have a figure of 10% of farmland to be taken out back to sphagnum moss. But they're not 100% sure. So the soil scheme was called for. Final figures will be known after. Department of Ag are not on the farmers side anymore. It's meeting carbon figures on paper now for the enviros at the conferences now, takes precedence.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571379#Comment_118571379

We really just need inflation to go through the roof. Followed by interest rates. Very quickly the focus would turn back to real wealth generation and whoever survives the crash would prosper...

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571445#Comment_118571445

It's going to be the saving grace, politicians in the main are working of the assumption of endless low interest bonds to implement their green new deal policies, if we go back to a 2007/2008 type scenario, their priorities will change to survival mode instead of worrying about been carbon neutral by 2050

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118570981#Comment_118570981

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118570981#Comment_118570981

He is a very weak minister in a. Very weak government from a supporting agriculture point of view

farmertipp

don't think the opposition Could be much worse but they wouldn't be much better either. weak toaisoch as well. Ryan is wagging the tail. there seems to be a grand coalition of ruthless vested interests lined up against farmers now. from online influence to schools and third level and media. yet markets for our produce are on fire.

farmertipp

not to mention all the business derived from alternatives. one wonders how much corruption is involved. cutting animal agriculture will have little effect on overall problem and I bet all of those who are proffering this shite will be flying abroad perhaps a few times this year.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118571252#Comment_118571252

It won't grass ...but I think that is the Idea

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572577#Comment_118572577

Yes I agree with you there it is going to be in to the barrow of the companies producing highly processed muck

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572563#Comment_118572563

When you see what Trudeu is about to pull in Canada re the trucker protests, theirs a tipping point been reached where Western democracies are going the chinese route

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheMarieOakes/status/1488976753267720192

farmertipp

we may be the tip of the iceberg so

alps

The Minister is only taking on 17,000 dairy farmers, and you can see by the instigator of this thread, that many (maybe most) non dairy lads will be rubbing their hands at this.

He might not be that unpopular at all.

Double edged sword however...can you imagine where the price of beef will go if there's a dairy cull....and cull is what can happen here.

Gov are not going to allow dairy numbers rise. It doesn't matter at this stage that we could still reduce emissions with rising numbers. The gov are only concerned about "Public Perception"..The perception that they will put farmers under the cosh....because they sure as hell are going tonhave some job reducing emissions in any other area.

Cows are the only soft option.

patsy_mccabe

Word population of 8 billion. Set to increase to circa 12 billion. A lot of hungry mouths.

Ireland has the lowest carbon footprint for Dairying in Europe. The fundamentals should always win out in the end.

Surely organic milk would allow a dairy farmer to reduce numbers, inputs and carbon and up price recieved?

Could be a win win.

Organic food is of better quality and has a lower environmental impact

More importantly, accurate figures on a farms carbon impact would give a real picture and show the positive impact of carbon sequestration in grass etc

alps

There is no...that's NO market for organic milk....NONE..

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573664#Comment_118573664

Ireland completely avoiding that thought. Europe will start to pay attention as the numbers floodi g across the Mediterranean in makeshift rafts start to swamp us...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573781#Comment_118573781

What about the likes of glensk

They are organic and are producing some really good yoghurts etc and are back after the fire.

Ireland’s climate is perfect for growing grass.

Reduction in carbon shouldn’t need a reduction in numbers if real accurate carbon impact of farms is calculated and if carbon efficiencies are used.

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573789#Comment_118573789

They are, and kudos to them, but their market is tiny. They buy milk from just 50 farms.

Not sure how many other processors are in the organic game... Arrabawn have 1 organic supplier, and that fullfills their demand, through their regular outlets, for organic milk.

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573807#Comment_118573807

Who is supplying all the organic milk to LIDL and ALDI?? and how does that fit into your comments about "no demand"??

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573431#Comment_118573431

Alps I am an agnostic. You had a swipe at me there. The Irish government has signed up to an international agreement. I actually do not accept the science behind grassland dairy. But we are where we are.

The problem for the government is they need to stop Dairy expansion in its tracks. At the same time they needed to allow farmers the freedom to farm.

How would you do it

Injuryprone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573840#Comment_118573840

I'll give you a clue.......c.6-7% of the milk pool satisfies the entire liquid milk demand in this country. Do you realize what 8 billion litres looks like?

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573878#Comment_118573878

Other countries are exporting organic Dairy products, not saying its the full/only answer to all this but the industry here is exclusively targeting the current conventional lower margin bulk market. Can that continue with the rising cost of intensive production, processing capacity problems,labour shortages, calf welfare, environmental constraint issues etc,?? How will margins stack up down the road in the face of all this??I guess the next few years will tell....

PS - Another issue coming down the tracks is the relentless rise in the move to non Cow-dairy alternatives. Pretty much every specialist dealing with food allergies, skin, gut issues etc. are telling people to ditch conventianal dairy in their diets

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573892#Comment_118573892

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/business/organic-dairy-farms-new-england.amp.html

Even more relevant to Ireland the below example, the current price these producers are getting is lower than what the majority of conventional manufacturers are paying at the minute in the uk

https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/markets-and-trends/milk-prices/shock-2p-litre-milk-price-cut-for-omsco-members

Fair to say you haven't a bulls notion of what your rambling on about

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573693#Comment_118573693

I'm afraid none of that is true

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573789#Comment_118573789

Yea glnisk is a great story great success but it's nearly at the peak sales point also the farmer margins and price difference between the two have nearly disappeared

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573892#Comment_118573892

They are but for as long back as I can remember there saying that so we will just have to see can't see a big change either way

ginger22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573892#Comment_118573892

Here we go again with the same airy fairy utopian nonsense, We will all be "hippie" farmers and get rich.

Markcheese

The market for organic milk is small , none of the bigger processers are interested ,largely because it's a chicken and egg situation , there's not enough largescale milk production so no will dedicate a milk factory to it , and because there's no largescale plant - theres no large scale milk production ... And round and round -

Organics is just a set of rules that consumers trust -, there are plenty of other ways to improve environmental outcomes and reduce production ,

But they'll involve change .. and people don't like sudden change imposed on them ..

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058230968/dairy-expansion

Full of great ideas to cap dairy farmers here, on the assumption that the numbers are a runaway train. I suppose that depends on what baseline you take, 2010 after years of quota when numbers had fallen to a low level, or take the pre-quota numbers as a benchmark?

If you take say 1980 as the baseline, on the logic that there was no market distortion, there were 1.6 million dairy cows in the country. So it could be argued that 2022 will see a return to normality. On the other hand, if you look at 1980 suckler cow numbers they were at 460,000 before the market-distorting effects of direct premia kicked in.

So the question could realistically be asked, what are the mechanisms to remove the false surplus of uneconomical sucklers from the sector?

Some suggestions are a ban on any direct subsidy into the future, abolishment of any practice-driven support schemes like BDGP, a 50% cut in BPS for herds with sucklers and off-farm income of 20k, removal of TAMS support for part-time suckler farmers, that sort of thing.

A 2% BPS penalty for every beef breed cow in the herd that doesn't calve within the calendar year would be good too.

ginger22

What is it with this government, they want to close down every productive indeginous industry we have and let the foreign companies flourish, give them grants, tax breaks. You would wonder who is being looked after in government and by who.

farmertipp

they are corrupt. simple as

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118574474#Comment_118574474

There is a premium for organic = true

Organic food is better = could definitely be argued

Carbon impact of cattle is overstated = I think that could definitely be argued as well

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573864#Comment_118573864

The problem for government is they need to be "perceived" as having stopped dairy in its tracks.

The while narrative of the Taoiseach's presentation at the IFA agm, was about "public perception"

His own...

The climate action committee put together reduction targets based on all 3 sectors based on what it deemed acheivable, and without due financial hardship to the players.

Professional input was present from all 3 sectors, and afterwards teagasc presented their science on how a 22% reduction from agriculture could be acheived (based on a stable or slightly increasing herd) and this included slight increase in dairy before stabilisation and probably reduction.

Butbthis narrative has moved on. Coal fired power stations have had to be brushed off and restarted. SUV's make up 50% of new car sales. Ryanair are blowing about their biggest ever year out of Dublin. Government is disagreeing over energy and fuel rebates to households..

There isn't a cats chance in hell of Energy and Transport reaching their targets, and likely they'll make no reduction AT ALL..

Key, the "public perception" phraseology....the industry most easy to crank up the hatred....Dirty Dairy..

This is a sacrifice..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118575134#Comment_118575134

I've no cow in this hunt but a couple of things struck me.

There may be a premium for organic, but I believe the argument being made is there aren't enough consumers buying organic for the volume of all dairy production. It's somewhat like the alternatives proposed by headbangers (not people on this thread) that instead of farming hills, we should be doing wild flower tours, or be hill walking guides. Which is fine and dandy until there's 8 of each in every parish and not enough customers. Development of a valuable market should be the issue tackled.

I'd agree organic food is better in some circumstances, depends on the specific food.

Bored of the carbon row, if I ever get to own the carbon on my farm I'll have the rights buried with me. I won't sell it ever.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118575134#Comment_118575134

Yes there was a premium for the farmer Most of it has been eroded by now herd sums it up nicely . there probably is still a premium for the co-op and the shops in organic but I fear the farmer can forget it. The cost of land rental and costs in general make it unviable for most

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118574032#Comment_118574032

I was milking cows by hand before blowhards like your learn't how to wipe your own ar$e. If you bothered to read what I posted i simply mentioned other countries are exporting organic into that growing market and also mentioned the spiralling costs of ever more intensive production. By all means your type are happy to keep going down the latter route which is your entitlement - so did pork and poultry..... so I suggest you reign in your arrogance and smugness on the matter

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576207#Comment_118576207

Your missing one fundamental point, economies of scale with dairy farming has hit a cliffwall as wage inflation and a dwindling labour pool of qualified workers who are prepared to work as a career on dairy farms is falling of a cliff worldwide , in the instances of poultry one man can manage huge amounts of boiler houses, pigs are more labour intensive alright, but not comparable to dairy farming.....

Look at milk pools in america/new zealand/Europe minus Ireland and Poland I think are all stagnating our dropping and this is off the back of predicted world record prices for this year, in alot of large industrial units as you like to call them managing/retaining staff is now the number one burning issue and is the perfect hand-brake to cool of milk production that we are already seeing...

On a side note if the government where to make a satisfactory offer of compensation to myself to radically scale back numbers once its enough to cover my outstanding loans and provides a nice buffer our a just transition for reduced income that adequately compensates us for a project that has seen me invest 700k and 90 plus hour work weeks the past 10 years building up my business I'll happily accept it, and do my part to save the planet

ginger22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576207#Comment_118576207

you were not long forgetting the rap on the knucles the moderator gave you a few days ago

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576688#Comment_118576688

Environmentalists are a bit like that

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576688#Comment_118576688

Did someone die and make you a moderator??

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577529#Comment_118577529

You do post some weird sh*te

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576477#Comment_118576477

I think your being rather naive thinking the big players in Dairy processing are going to treat Dairy farmers here with kid gloves in terms of margins going forwards compared with how other processors are currently treating Pig/Poulty, especcially as the milk pool continues to expand and consolidation continues to proceed at a pace in processing - after all pork production worldwide fell off a cliff last year due to Swineflu outbreaks and yet that industry looks like its going to need a serious bail out by the government in the near future. Speaking to lads who have been in Dairy since the 70's in some cases, they are worried too about the way things are going, since they and myself remember what farmers were getting for milk back then which would shock alot of folk in terms of how farm gate milk prices haven't come anywhere near keeping up with inflation on any front over those 4 decades!!

PS: Should have mentioned that the Kiwi model which the industry here is closely following is perhaps a good measure of where the pressures on margins, regs etc. are going to come on going forward.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118578005#Comment_118578005

I do as do you yourself but it takes alsorts ..... How are you going to square the circle of a high p loading on **** ground in probably the highest rainfall area in the country to grow nettles...... But yet your raving along about dairy farmers and high p pastures ......but look I wouldn't know much I'm just a farmer

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118578003#Comment_118578003

God be good to him.