Thursday 20th January 2022

Getting thread going early. Had a look at the first at the Gosforth Park venue, and though there's likely not many books pricing it up yet, I'll probably go win or each way on these two - depending on the prices..

3.25 Newcastle VERTICE

Has only won once, and that was at the course over 2fs further. It's a lowly Classified Stakes race, and Gianluca Sanna (who rode her for her sole win 4 runs back) is back up, and takes 7lbs off to ease the burden.. Looks like she'll be vying for favouritism, so likely a win bet on this 5yr old..

ODD SOCKS HAVANA

Is interesting here, as he's only four, and is having his first run for his new trainer Rebecca Mengeezzies 😋 Looks to be in third position on the tissue/probable sp, which is a pity, as I thought he'd be a lot bigger than the expected 5/1 or thereabouts; but he might well be a bigger price later anyway.. Probably go win as well on this one if he's 6s or shorter..

Iain Jardine's Toshack is another of interest upped in trip, and his 4yr old filly may be worth a second look...

Gluck 😊

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058228847/thursday-20th-january-2022

Vertice 11/4 and Odd Socks Havana ~4s... think I'll leave em alone at them prices.. was thinking I'll back Vertice @ 7/2-4/1 , and even that would be short enough; and don't want to be backing Odd Socks at anything less than 5s...

3.30 Ludlow UNAI 33/1 gen ew

Many of these horses have seen better days, and a fair few 7lbs claiming amateurs here. No point trying to make a solid case for anything really in a race like this, and just go with a speculative one at a price. Unai doesn't have great claims on any formbook, but he has a hurdles' run from Feb of last year at Market Rasen, that makes him worth a € ew at his current price. He's only 7, and is possibly unexposed on soft ground (most of his chase runs have been on better ground than what's described) , has a win at the trip to his name, and has more of a look of a 20/1 shot than a double carpet one.. never heard of the jockey, but that's factored in too.

j@utis

Short price winner is still better than long odds looser 🤣 on this note I'm with Night On Earth 5/1 in 5:30 Newcastle, counting on jockey's claim to get them in front of the rest. I do agree though that getting the long shot right is much more fun!

Earcomesbob in the 13.00 at 4/1

Sadly missed out on the juicier prices but i'll take a 4/1

j@utis

PP is paying 4 places in 7:00 Newc, I'm going with Thaki in that one - he got squeezed out on the rail last time when still going well, fancied that day starting 2fav, 12/1 today, good draw, jockey taking 3lb off bring him down to the last winning mark.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118505215#Comment_118505215

True about getting the winners j@utis 😊 Better a 6/4 shot first past the post than a fifty to one shot that outruns his odds and comes 5th (no collectey on each wayey 😂) ... still; it's not easy to pick winners at any price... 2/1 shot could look rock solid, but might get beat by an improving 9/2 one 😩 That being said, if we were all guaranteed 2 shorties a day that would obige, we'd never bother with the bigger priced ones 😄 I'd gladly back 2 overbet 13/8 (that should be 2s) , and 11/8 (what should be 13/8) , and non-value pokes, and not worry about said value, cos they would be 'guaranteed' ! 😁

No such a thing though.. Like to back an odd shorty, but I have to be convinced of his chances.. Far more fun indeed landing one at a huge price..

Your pick does look to have a right good chance on his 2nd and 3rd last runs j.. and Freddie Larson surely massive value for his 7lbs - think he's had 16 or so winners so far.. aint been to shop yet, and if I do go, I'll deffo have a lil bit on Night On Earth!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058228847/thursday-20th-january-2022

Didn't bother with the two picks.. thought there was no point in backing Vertice @ 9/4, and Odd Socks Havana I overlooked at a short enough ~4/1

Iain Jardine's Toshack is another of interest upped in trip, and his 4yr old filly may be worth a second look

Done a little each way on this one at 16s.. looked value anyhow, and she has a glimmer on the form shown..

Newcastle double - Sparka (16.30) & Antiphon (18.00)

5/1

No joy in 3.25.. Scots Sonnet the winner - only 5/1, but hard enough to find imo..

Newcastle is the arsehole of the racing world. That will be my last ever bet there.

7.00 Newcastle TATHMEEN 12/1 gen ew

A multiple winner on the AW at Newcastle and Wolverhampton (mainly over 5f , but a couple over today's 6f trip). Last run was a kind of a return to form, when he finished 5th over C & D. Mainly tackles Class 4s and 5s, with the odd tilt at a Class 3. Is down to the basement (ish - maybe a level above a 'Classified Stakes' Race) grade Class 6, for the first time ever I think. Has drifted out to a friendly 12/1 (from 8s or so earlier)..

The fav Intervention is way too short imo, on the back of 2 good runs over 7fs. 6f a completely different trip, but I'm sure the trainer must fancy his newish recruit that he got from Charles O'Brien. Nonetheless, 6/5 looks way way too short, and I fancy he's been well overbet...

I think Blackjack @ ~9/2 is a far better punting prospect than the jolly, but am happy enough to only have 1 pick here, and, with some books going 4 places, I feel Tathmeen is worth €1, or maybe €2 each way.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118505352#Comment_118505352

WD ! Winner at 12/1.... happy days 😊

j@utis

Happy days. No joy with Night on Earth earlier but I'm not complaining today.

j@utis

Tathmeen came 2nd, I see, that's not too shabby either.

ya, between the both ours we would have got forecast up 😉